重要提示：本材料不构成淡水泉任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩 不预示未来表现。投资须谨慎。 "算力的尽头是电力" ，这句话正成为美国科技巨头不得不面对的现实难题。 微软CEO纳德拉近期坦言，公司陷入一个尴尬境地：仓库里堆满了高性能GPU，却因电力供应短缺和数 据中心空间不足，无法投入使用。 随着算力需求激增，缺电引发的连锁反应正越演越烈，全美多地出现数据中心与居民"抢电" 的现象， 美国最大区域电力市场PJM的远期容量电价更是同比飙升20%。 美国"供电荒"的根源在于电力基础设施的长期投资不足。 在需求倒逼下，此次危机也为能源基础设施 的建设与投资带来了新的机遇。 美国缺电不是短期问题 美国的电力困境并非偶然，根源是长期供需失衡的结构性矛盾，具体体现在三个层面： 01 电网建设周期与算力需求增长严重错配 美国电力可靠性委员会（NERC）的预测显示，到2030年数据中心将带来65GW的新增负荷；但按英伟 达 GPU 实际出货量测算，仅算力需求在五年内驱动的负荷增量就可能高达180GW，是官方预测的近 3 倍。尽管美国政府已推出一系列举措加速电网建设，如202 ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is shifting its focus towards advanced processes and packaging, gradually outsourcing some 40-90nm orders to its subsidiary, World Advanced, while discontinuing low-margin businesses like GaN foundry services [2][3]. Group 1: Strategic Shifts - TSMC's strategy reflects a clear move away from low-margin process nodes, concentrating resources on high-value processes, particularly in response to strong AI demand [3]. - The company aims to maintain a long-term gross margin target of 53%, indicating a commitment to enhancing profitability through advanced process price increases [2][3]. - TSMC has announced the shutdown of its 6-inch wafer fab in Hsinchu and plans to exit GaN foundry services within two years, reallocating resources to higher-margin businesses [2]. Group 2: Financial Implications - TSMC's gross margin is expected to be diluted by 2-3 percentage points annually due to the ramp-up of overseas fabs, potentially increasing to 3-4 percentage points in the coming years [3][4]. - Despite a reported gross margin of 59.5% in Q3, future margins are likely to be impacted by the shift to overseas production, necessitating a focus on higher-margin advanced processes [3]. Group 3: Revenue Composition - The revenue share from advanced processes (7nm and below) increased from 65% in Q1 2024 to 73% in Q1 2025, indicating a significant shift towards advanced technology [3]. Group 4: Pricing Strategies - TSMC plans to raise prices for chips using processes below 5nm starting January 2026, with expected increases of 3-4%, and potentially up to 10% for the most advanced nodes [7]. - The price for 2nm process nodes is projected to rise annually for four years, with cumulative increases potentially reaching double digits by 2030 [7]. Group 5: Operational Adjustments - TSMC is reallocating manpower and equipment from older process nodes to advanced ones, which may lead to bottlenecks in 6nm and 7nm processes, affecting customers who do not require cutting-edge technology [8]. - The company is also encouraging clients to transfer some mature process orders to World Advanced, ensuring minimal disruption while meeting specific customer demands [5].

类型：行业 盘前要闻 1、八部门联合部署有色金属稳增长工作 工信部等八部门印发《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案(2025—2026年)》，其中提到，2025—2026年，有 色金属行业增加值年均增长5%左右，十种有色金属产量年均增长1.5%左右，铜、铝、锂等国内资源开 发取得积极进展，再生金属产量突破2000万吨。 2、国产"英伟达"88天极速过会 AI芯片加持摩尔线程IPO在即 类型：公司 情绪影响：正面 上交所官网显示，摩尔线程首发申请成功过会。据披露，摩尔线程IPO募资80亿元，如果年内顺利上 市，将成为科创板今年挂牌的最大IPO。中信建投证券认为，摩尔线程获得科创板IPO受理，标志着中 国高性能GPU与AI算力芯片企业加速迈入资本市场，政策与市场层面对关键芯片自主化的支持正在强 化。 3、央行重磅部署!事关货币政策、资本市场稳定 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 中国人民银行货币政策委员会召开2025年第三季度例会。会议研究了下阶段货币政策主要思路，建议加 强货币政策调控，提高前瞻性、针对性、有效性。会议指出，用好证券、基金、保险公司互换便利和股 票回购增持再贷款，探索常态化的制度安排，维护资本市场稳定。 4、 ...

说出来可能有些"凡尔赛"，但英伟达如今正面临着其大多数竞争对手梦寐以求的"烦恼"：这家人工智能 芯片巨头手头的资金过于充裕。 过去几天，英伟达登上媒体头条并非因其芯片销量暴增，而是其频繁开出的巨额支票： 上周末，英伟达宣布向陷入困境的芯片制造商英特尔入股50亿美元。周一又有消息称，英伟 达计划在未来数年内向OpenAI投入高达1000亿美元…… 考虑到三年前英伟达的年自由现金流仅略超60亿美元，投向OpenAI的1000亿美元数字看起来无疑显得 尤为惊人。然而，近年来全球人工智能热潮及其引发的军备竞赛，不仅使英伟达成为全球市值最高的企 业，也确实正使其跻身资金最雄厚的公司之列！ 英伟达幸福的烦恼：钱多的溢出来了 FactSet的数据显示，英伟达过去四个财季累计创造了多达720亿美元自由现金流，本财年末有望突破 1000亿美元大关。 这一数字有多夸张？最直观的一组对比是：这已超过除苹果之外所有科技巨头今年的预期自由现金流总 和。 然而，如何有效运用巨额资金绝非易事…… 过去四个季度，英伟达已斥资近500亿美元回购自家股票，近期又将回购计划规模扩大了600亿美元。 与此同时，尽管英伟达过去两年的研发支出已翻倍，但 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 TIME 100 list highlights influential figures in the AI field, showcasing significant contributions from scholars, entrepreneurs, and thinkers globally [1] - Notably, several Chinese individuals made their debut on the international AI stage, including prominent leaders from major tech companies [1] Group 1: Key Figures and Contributions - Ren Zhengfei, founder of Huawei, has led the company in long-term investments in AI, resulting in the development of Ascend AI chips and the Pangu model, enhancing Huawei's competitiveness in the smart era [3] - Liang Wenfeng, CEO of DeepSeek, has propelled the company to prominence through a commitment to independent research and development, releasing top-tier open-source models that challenge global competitors [3] - Jensen Huang, co-founder of NVIDIA, transformed the company into a leading AI computing firm by leveraging the potential of GPUs for parallel computing, with CUDA and high-performance GPUs driving deep learning advancements [4] Group 2: Innovations and Ideologies - Peng Jun, founder of Pony.ai, is recognized for continuous innovation in autonomous driving technology, successfully commercializing self-driving taxis and trucks [4] - Fei-Fei Li, a professor at Stanford University, is a prominent advocate for "human-centered AI," having led the creation of the ImageNet project and promoting responsible AI development aligned with human values [5] - Other notable figures on the list include Mark Zuckerberg of Meta, Sam Altman of OpenAI, and Dario Amodei of Anthropic, all contributing significantly to AI technology and its applications [5]

Core Insights - The article discusses the release of TIME's list of the 100 most influential people in AI for 2025, highlighting an increase in the representation of Chinese individuals in the field [1][4]. Leaders - Ren Zhengfei, founder of Huawei, has driven long-term investments in AI, launching the Ascend series AI chips and MindSpore deep learning framework, establishing a competitive edge in the smart era [5][7]. - Liang Wenfeng, CEO of DeepSeek, has led the company to become a core player in AI technology, releasing the R1 model that competes with OpenAI's latest offerings [8][10]. - Huang Renxun, co-founder and CEO of NVIDIA, transformed the company into a leading AI computing firm, with its GPU technology being essential for deep learning advancements [11][13]. - Wei Zhejia, chairman of TSMC, has positioned the company as a key player in AI chip manufacturing, ensuring the production of powerful AI processors [14][16]. - Wang Tao, co-head of Meta's Superintelligence Lab, has focused on high-quality data as a critical factor for AI model capabilities [18]. - Wang Xingxing, CEO of Unitree Technology, is a key figure in embodied AI, leading the development of humanoid robots [21]. Innovators - Peng Jun, CEO of Pony.ai, has been pivotal in the commercialization of autonomous driving technology, achieving large-scale operations of Robotaxi services in major Chinese cities [22][24]. - Edwin Chen, founder of Surge AI, has built a company that generates high-quality datasets, achieving over $1 billion in revenue by 2024 [25][27]. Shapers - Li Feifei, Stanford professor and CEO of World Labs, has been influential in AI research and ethics, leading the creation of the ImageNet project [28][30]. Thinkers - Xue Lan, a professor at Tsinghua University, has contributed to AI governance and public policy, influencing the development of ethical AI frameworks [32][34].

Group 1: Tencent's Investment in Morning One Fund - Tencent has invested in the Morning One Fund, founded by Liu Xiaodan, former president of Huatai United Securities, which focuses on merger and acquisition investments [2] - The fund's first fund was registered in March 2020, and in 2024, former Alibaba Group chairman Zhang Yong joined the fund [2] - Tencent's investment aims to capture integration opportunities in the current macroeconomic environment and capital market cycle, reflecting a trend among industry giants to invest in specialized GP to enhance their ecosystem [2] Group 2: KKR's New Smart Energy Fund - KKR has established the KKR Smart Energy Fund II with a scale of 1 billion RMB, with Total Energy as a cornerstone investor [3] - The fund will focus on investments in the new energy vehicle supply chain, renewable energy generation technology, energy management, and carbon reduction technologies [3] - KKR's approach combines equity and asset investments to support innovative companies in the new energy sector, facilitating the transition of technologies from labs to market [3] Group 3: Investment in Robotics Companies - Yushu Technology received additional investment from Beijing Robot Industry Development Fund, which has a total scale of 10 billion RMB, focusing on advanced robotics technologies [5][6] - Yushu Technology specializes in general-purpose bipedal robots and has achieved commercial success in various fields [6] - Cloud Deep Technology, another "Hangzhou Six Dragons" company, completed nearly 500 million RMB in financing led by the State New Fund, focusing on humanoid and quadruped robots [7] Group 4: Strategic Investment in Zhipu - Zhipu announced a strategic investment of 1 billion RMB from Shanghai state-owned enterprises, coinciding with its IPO preparations [8] - The investment aims to build a regional industrial alliance across the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, enhancing Zhipu's valuation expectations as it approaches its IPO [8] Group 5: Domestic GPU Company Financing - Domestic GPU company Sunrise completed nearly 1 billion RMB in financing, with investors including SANY Group and others [9] - Sunrise focuses on high-performance GPUs and multi-modal scene inference chips, marking a significant breakthrough in the domestic GPU sector [9] - The demand for high-performance GPUs is expected to grow as AI technology advances, reflecting strong development momentum in China's high-end chip technology [9]

Group 1 - "Made in China 2025" aims to transform China from a "world factory" to a global high-tech manufacturing leader by 2025, with a target of 70% self-sufficiency in core components and key materials [3][4] - The initiative focuses on ten high-tech sectors, including semiconductors, robotics, new energy vehicles, aerospace, and biomedicine, supported by significant government funding and policy incentives [3][4] - From 2015 to 2022, over $1.3 trillion was invested in priority industries, with nearly 60% allocated to semiconductors and new energy vehicles, indicating a concentrated policy approach [4] Group 2 - The new energy vehicle (NEV) sector has seen remarkable success, with domestic NEVs capturing 80% of the market share in 2022, and companies like BYD ranking second globally in NEV sales [5][6] - High-speed rail has become a textbook success story, with Chinese companies now dominating the market, achieving a 90% share in high-speed rail signaling equipment [6][7] - In the new materials sector, China has significantly increased its production capacity, with a global share of 80% in petrochemical products from 2019 to 2022, and companies like Wanhua Chemical leading in the polyurethane market [7][8] Group 3 - Despite achievements, challenges remain in high-end manufacturing, particularly in semiconductors, where China's market share is only 1.9%, and reliance on imported equipment is high [8][9] - The aerospace sector faces similar issues, with the domestically produced C919 aircraft having only a 60% local content rate, heavily dependent on foreign suppliers for critical components [9][10] - The marine engineering and high-tech shipbuilding sectors also struggle, with less than 30% localization in high-tech ship equipment [10] Group 4 - The rapid advancements have led to some negative consequences, including resource wastage due to excessive government spending, with 30% of semiconductor project funds wasted on inefficient projects [11][12] - Overemphasis on industrial policy has resulted in production capacity outpacing consumer demand, leading to price wars and declining industrial profits [11][12] - In 2022, China's power battery production capacity reached 900 GWh, but actual demand was only 450 GWh, resulting in a 50% surplus [12][13] Group 5 - While China excels in low-end and mid-range markets, it still lags behind international giants in high-end sectors, with R&D investment significantly lower than that of the U.S. [13][14] - Foreign enterprises believe that Chinese competitors will take 5 to 10 years to catch up in technology, particularly in advanced fields like semiconductors and aerospace engines [14][15] - The decline in international scientific collaboration and increased trade tensions pose additional challenges for Chinese companies in sensitive technology areas [15]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong growth trajectory for the AI industry, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.1% from 2024 to 2034, suggesting a positive investment outlook for the sector [1][3]. Core Insights - The global AI market size is expected to grow from $538.13 billion in 2023 to $638.23 billion in 2024, highlighting a significant expansion [1]. - North America currently holds the largest market share in the global AI market, accounting for 37% in 2023, driven by leading companies like OpenAI and NVIDIA [3]. - The Asia-Pacific region is anticipated to be the fastest-growing AI market during the forecast period, fueled by increased investment and government support in countries like China and India [4]. - The AI software market is projected to reach $218 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 18%, and is expected to grow to $97 billion in 2024, marking a 32% increase from 2023 [4][5]. - The generative AI market is also experiencing rapid growth, with an expected size of $15 billion in 2024 and projected to expand to $73 billion by 2029, reflecting a CAGR of 38% [5]. Summary by Sections - **Market Size and Growth**: The global AI market is set to grow significantly, with a forecasted size of $638.23 billion in 2024 and a CAGR of 19.1% from 2024 to 2034 [1][3]. - **Regional Insights**: North America leads the market with a 37% share in 2023, while the Asia-Pacific region is expected to grow the fastest due to increased investments and supportive policies [3][4]. - **Software and Generative AI**: The AI software market is projected to reach $218 billion by 2029, with a notable increase in 2024, while the generative AI market is expected to grow from $15 billion in 2024 to $73 billion by 2029 [4][5]. - **Industry Chain Development**: The expansion of the AI market is driving demand for high-performance chips and data centers, with a focus on ensuring supply stability and security through domestic production [5].