1）淘汰牛假设：根据荷斯坦，每年期初母牛存栏中将淘汰约28%的低产或老龄牛，为了维持成母牛比 例的稳定，我们预计每年的后备小母牛中有约40%转化为成母牛，其中有10%的少量淘汰。另外，我们 预计每年的新生犊牛中公母的概率相等。我们预计2026-2027 年优然的奶牛存栏量年均提升4%，同时母 牛存栏比例保持在52%。我们以成母牛300kg/头、小公牛50kg/头来测算，据此得出2025-2027 年母牛淘 汰量分别为3.09/3.20/3.32 万吨， 小公牛淘汰量分别为0.81/0.84/0.87 万吨。2）利润弹性测算：根据山东 省奶业协会，我们预计2024 年优然成母牛淘汰价格为15.5 元/kg，小公牛淘汰价格为22 元/kg。假设 2025/2026/2027 年淘牛价格的涨幅相较2024 年分别为10%/25%/35%，据此得出2025-2027 年优然牧业成 母牛的淘汰将分别为公司带来0.87/1.55/2.75 亿元的利润增量，小公牛淘汰分别带来0.40/0.58/1.03 亿元 的利润增量，合计带来1.27/2.13/3.78 亿元的利润增量。 盈利预测与投资建议 根据乳业时报，2025 年 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that YouRan Agriculture (09858) is expected to benefit from the continuous reduction in dairy cow inventory and a significant increase in beef prices, which will likely enhance the profitability from culling cows. Additionally, the dairy industry is effectively adjusting market supply through investments in deep processing capacity, which is anticipated to accelerate the clearing of industry capacity and support a recovery in raw milk prices by 2026 [1][5]. Group 2 - The continuous reduction in dairy cow inventory is deepening and accelerating, with a total decrease of 540,000 heads (8.1%) over the past 20 months since reaching a peak in February 2024. This reduction is expected to stabilize fresh milk prices and alleviate previous supply excess pressures [1][5]. - The dairy processing industry is expanding deep processing capacity to consume raw milk, with products like cheese and milk powder significantly outpacing liquid milk in raw milk consumption, thus playing a crucial role in balancing market supply [2][5]. Group 3 - Beef prices have started to reverse, with the average wholesale price in China increasing from 57 yuan/kg in February to 66 yuan/kg in December, a rise of 15.79%. This price increase is expected to enhance the profitability from culling cows, as the price of culled cows is linked to market beef prices [3][4]. - The company anticipates that the profitability from culling cows will increase further with rising beef prices, which will also facilitate the further reduction of dairy cow inventory and help achieve a balance in raw milk supply and demand [3][4]. Group 4 - The company projects that from 2025 to 2027, the culling of dairy cows will generate incremental profits of 1.27 billion, 2.13 billion, and 3.78 billion yuan, respectively, based on expected price increases for culled cows [4]. - The company expects to achieve revenues of 208.05 billion, 217.22 billion, and 229.82 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.53%, 4.41%, and 5.80%, respectively. Net profits are projected to be 5.12 billion, 16.78 billion, and 28.56 billion yuan, with significant year-on-year growth [5].

奶牛存栏持续出清，26年原奶价格有望复苏 智通财经APP获悉，中邮证券发布研报称，优然牧业(09858)受益于奶牛存栏持续去化及牛肉价格显著上 涨，淘牛利润有望显著增厚。同时，乳企布局深加工产能有效调节市场供给，有望进一步加速行业产能 出清，共同推动2026年原奶价格复苏。维持"买入"评级。 中邮证券主要观点如下： 该行据此进行增量利润弹性测算：1）淘汰牛假设：根据荷斯坦，每年期初母牛存栏中将淘汰约28%的 低产或老龄牛，为了维持成母牛比例的稳定，该行预计每年的后备小母牛中有约40%转化为成母牛，其 中有10%的少量淘汰。另外，该行预计每年的新生犊牛中公母的概率相等。该行预计2026-2027年优然 的奶牛存栏量年均提升4%，同时母牛存栏比例保持在52%。该行以成母牛300kg/头、小公牛50kg/头来 测算，据此得出2025-2027年母牛淘汰量分别为3.09/3.20/3.32万吨，小公牛淘汰量分别为0.81/0.84/0.87万 吨。2）利润弹性测算：根据山东省奶业协会，该行预计2024年优然成母牛淘汰价格为15.5元/kg，小公 牛淘汰价格为22元/kg。假设2025/2026/2027年淘牛价格的涨 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 3.145 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, representing a 16% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 248 million yuan, up 22% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, total revenue reached 1.075 billion yuan, marking a 15% increase year-on-year, while net profit was 77 million yuan, a 14% increase year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - The gross profit margin decreased by 2 percentage points to 28.94% due to high procurement prices of bulk raw materials, particularly oil and dairy products, and changes in product and channel structure [2] - The company improved its cost control capabilities, leading to a reduction in sales and management expense ratios by 1 percentage point and 2 percentage points to 9.52% and 5.35%, respectively [2] - The net profit margin slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 7.03% [2] Product and Market Development - Revenue from frozen baked goods increased by 17% in Q3 2025, driven by stable sales from new products introduced in the Sam's channel [3] - The company is actively testing high-end cream products in key customer sales channels, with plans to expand the product matrix based on positive market feedback [3] - The company is also focusing on developing new channel customers and enhancing cooperation with existing clients to capture new consumption trends in baking [3] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to solidify its core supermarket customer base, with smooth performance in new product launches and accelerated development in new retail channels [4] - The procurement department's ability to manage raw material costs is anticipated to improve, potentially stabilizing costs and enhancing profit margins by year-end [4] - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.92, 2.32, and 2.70 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 22, 18, and 16 times [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [8] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated steady revenue growth, with total operating income for Q1-Q3 2025 reaching 3.145 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 248 million yuan, up 22% year-on-year [4][8] - The company is focusing on cost control and efficiency improvements, with a reduction in sales and management expense ratios, leading to a net profit margin of 7.03% [5][8] - The core supermarket business remains stable, with significant growth in frozen baked goods and a positive market response to high-end cream products [6][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, total operating income was 1.075 billion yuan, a 15% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 77 million yuan, up 14% year-on-year [4][6] - The company expects to see continued improvement in profitability due to enhanced cost control and the release of scale effects [7][8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts EPS for 2025-2027 to be 1.92, 2.32, and 2.70 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22, 18, and 16 times [8][10] - Projected revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are 15.0%, 12.3%, and 10.0% respectively, with net profit growth rates of 21.2%, 20.8%, and 16.6% [10][11] Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively expanding its product offerings and enhancing its market presence through new product launches and improved customer engagement strategies [6][7] - The focus on high-end cream products is expected to strengthen the company's competitive position in the market [6][8]