在近期的持续震荡中，黄金又迎来一波猛烈的涨势。今日，现货黄金午后上攻，相关ETF——黄金股票ETF（517400）涨超2.5%，截至写稿，年初至今涨幅 超75%。 | 代码 名称 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | | 517400 黄金股票ETF | 2.58 | | 518800 击令其个FTF T . O | | 全球央行购金热情不减，中长期黄金具备支撑 如何投资黄金机会？布局黄金股票ETF（517400） 投资者如果看好黄金的长期投资价值，或许可以考虑黄金股票ETF（517400）或者黄金基金ETF（518800）进行布局。 黄金股票ETF（517400）：跟踪中证沪深港黄金产业股票指数，涵盖了黄金的全产业链相关股票，包括上游矿端的开采、中游加工以及下游的消费。黄金股 票ETF本身是权益资产，存在高波动特性，需根据自身的投资需求进行资产的配置。 全球央行购金热情不减。摩根大通报告数据显示，2025年第三季度，全球央行净购金总量达到220吨，环比增长30%，折合年化购买速度为880吨；在金价平 均为3668美元/盎司的9月份，官方报告的净购买量仍达到39吨，是2025年以来最强劲的月份。中国央行 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have experienced a significant decline, with London gold dropping over 5%, attributed to easing geopolitical tensions and a softening of Trump's trade stance, leading to a decrease in safe-haven demand [1][2] Market Analysis - The recent rise in gold prices reflects the weakening of the US dollar's credibility, indicating a shift towards gold as an independent asset rather than being tied to the dollar [2][3] - The current high valuation of gold, driven by rapid price increases, has led to profit-taking among investors, contributing to the recent price correction [2] - A joint statement from European leaders supporting negotiations for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has further diminished safe-haven demand for gold [2] Long-term Outlook - The fundamental value of gold as a core investment remains unchanged, as the US dollar credit system faces significant structural challenges, exacerbated by rising government debt and concerns over debt sustainability [3] - Central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold reserves, with projections indicating a rise to 74.06 million ounces by September 2025, reflecting a monthly increase of 40,000 ounces [3] Investment Opportunities - Current price corrections in gold may present a favorable entry point for long-term investors looking to capitalize on future price increases [4] - Investment options include: 1. **Gold ETFs**: These funds hold physical gold and closely track the price of gold contracts, providing direct exposure to gold [5] 2. **Gold Mining ETFs**: These track the gold industry stocks across the entire supply chain, offering exposure to both gold price movements and related mining sectors [6] 3. **Mining ETFs**: These focus on a broader range of metals, including copper and lithium, alongside gold, allowing investors to capture rebounds in multiple sectors [7]

Core Viewpoint - Western Securities indicates that gold prices are currently in the early stages of the "third wave," and as the cracks in U.S. dollar credit continue to expand, a long-term bull market for gold will commence [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The resumption of interest rate cuts implies a loss of independence for the Federal Reserve, which will continue to be undermined in the future, enhancing the reserve value of gold [1] - The current phase is identified as the early stage of a major upward trend in gold prices, referred to as the third wave [1] - Attention should be paid to the potential pullback risks due to speculative funds taking profits [1] Group 2: Investment Vehicle - The gold ETF (518800) holds underlying assets that are gold spot contracts traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (AU99.99), directly corresponding to physical gold stored in the Shanghai Gold Exchange vaults [1] - Investing in the gold ETF essentially equates to direct investment in physical gold, as its price fluctuations closely follow the AU9999 spot contract, which reflects domestic gold prices [1] - According to the fund contract, the proportion of physical gold held must not be less than 90% of the fund's assets [1]

Group 1 - Gold plays a significant role in asset allocation as a diversification and risk-hedging tool, with optimal allocation averaging 18% from 1972 to 2014, particularly yielding an annual return of 16.2% when inflation exceeds 5% [1] - Gold exhibits positive or low negative correlation during downturns in stock, bond, and commodity markets, highlighting its strategic value in the current environment of high global debt, low real interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainty [1] - The Gold ETF (518800) holds physical gold contracts traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, directly corresponding to gold stored in the exchange's vaults, making investment in the ETF equivalent to direct investment in physical gold [1] Group 2 - The Gold ETF is required to maintain at least 90% of its assets in physical gold, ensuring a close correlation with domestic gold prices [1]

Group 1 - The core logic of gold investment is based on three main factors: 1) long-term loosening of the dollar credit system and continuous gold purchases by central banks; 2) potential levels of dollar yields, which are influenced by the state of the U.S. economy; 3) short-term demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical disturbances [1] - Gold ETF funds hold physical gold contracts traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, directly corresponding to the physical gold stored in the exchange's vaults, making investment in gold ETFs equivalent to direct investment in physical gold [1] - The price fluctuations of gold ETFs closely follow the AU9999 spot contracts, which represent domestic gold prices, with a requirement that at least 90% of the fund's assets must be held in physical gold [1]

Group 1 - Gold plays a significant role in asset allocation as a diversification and risk-hedging tool, with optimal allocation averaging 18% from 1972 to 2014, particularly yielding an annual return of 16.2% when inflation exceeds 5% [1] - In the current environment of high global debt, low real interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainty, gold's strategic value as a non-correlated asset is highlighted, shifting asset allocation paradigms from "fixed income+" to "gold+" [1] - The core logic for gold's price increase is linked to the re-evaluation of dollar credit, particularly post-Ukraine crisis, where insufficient safe-haven assets and doubts about the Federal Reserve's credibility are significant factors [1] Group 2 - The Gold ETF (518800) holds physical gold contracts traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, directly corresponding to the physical gold stored in the exchange's vaults, making investment in the ETF equivalent to direct investment in physical gold [1] - The price movements of the Gold ETF closely follow the AU9999 spot contracts, which represent domestic gold prices, with a requirement that at least 90% of the fund's assets must be held in physical gold [1]

注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 相关机构表示，国庆假期以来黄金继续上行趋势，金价突破新高。美国联邦政府停摆叠加数据空窗期带 来宏观不确定性的大幅提升。从长期看，联邦政府持续停摆、政治僵局加剧、财政纪律弱化，都在逐步 侵蚀美元作为全球储备货币的基础。此外，中美贸易摩擦或升级，关税冲突再起，市场避险情绪增强。 短期看金价受到多因素驱动有望上行；同时也需关注中东地缘局势出现缓和迹象、投机资金获利了结等 因素带来的回调风险。中长期"美联储开启降息周期+海外宏观政策不确定性加剧+全球去美元化趋 势"对于金价构成一定支撑，或可考虑逢低分批布局黄金基金ETF（518800）。 黄金基金ETF（518800）持有的基础资产是上海黄金交易所挂牌交易的黄金现货合约（AU99.99），它 直接对应着存放在上金所金库中的实物黄金，并可以通过合 ...

Group 1 - The market is experiencing increased risk aversion due to the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies, which is providing support for gold prices [1] - Trump's "de-globalization" tariff policies may encourage central banks to increase their gold purchases [1] - The Gold ETF (518800) holds physical gold contracts traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, directly corresponding to the physical gold stored in the exchange's vaults [1] Group 2 - The Gold ETF's price movements closely follow the AU9999 spot contract, reflecting domestic gold prices [1] - According to the fund's contract, at least 90% of the fund's assets must be held in physical gold [1] - In the medium to long term, a weakening U.S. economy and the ongoing "de-dollarization" of the global monetary system are expected to support gold prices [1] Group 3 - Investors are encouraged to consider opportunities in Gold ETF (518800) and Gold Stock ETF (517400) [1] - If gold prices experience short-term adjustments, it may be a good opportunity for investors to buy at lower prices [1]

消息面，周五晚间，特朗普在Truth Social上发文，对中国刚刚实施的稀土出口管制政策表示强烈"不 满"， 宣布将采取一系列反制措施。全球风险资产巨震。 相关机构表示，近期市场在高位进入调整期，国庆节后沪指在3900点遭遇一定阻力。北京时间周五晚 上，美国再度挑起中美关税博弈，市场风偏或有所收缩，短期之内市场或重回关税交易。配置角度，需 要增加防御属性强的资产以应对市场不确定性。 黄金基金ETF（518800）持有的基础资产是上海黄金交易所挂牌交易的黄金现货合约（AU99.99），它 直接对应着存放在上金所金库中的实物黄金，并可以通过合约提取。因此，投资黄金基金ETF，本质上 就等同于直接投资了实物黄金。黄金基金ETF其价格涨跌幅紧密跟随AU9999现货合约，也就是国内的 黄金价格。根据基金合同规定，持有黄金现货的比例不低于基金资产的90%。 相关机构表示，中长期来看，美国经济走弱、全球货币体系"去美元化"持续演进仍对金价构成支撑。投 资者可通过黄金基金ETF（518800）和黄金股票ETF（517400）布局相关机会。若金价在短期出现调 整，可以考虑逢低布局。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Group 1 - The U.S. economy faces a pessimistic outlook with growing concerns over "stagflation," as indicated by the August non-farm employment change of 220,000, significantly below the expected 750,000 and previous 790,000 [1] - Investors are increasingly favoring gold as a "store of value" asset due to strong demand for asset preservation amid economic uncertainties [1] - Geopolitical risks are elevating market risk aversion, providing support for gold prices, making them more resistant to declines [1] Group 2 - The gold ETF (518800) holds physical gold contracts traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, directly linked to gold stored in the exchange's vaults, making investment in this ETF equivalent to direct investment in physical gold [2] - Long-term trends indicate that a weakening U.S. economy and the ongoing "de-dollarization" of the global monetary system will continue to support gold prices [2] - Investors are encouraged to consider opportunities in gold ETFs (518800) and gold stock ETFs (517400), especially if gold prices experience short-term corrections [2]