12月7日，中国央行公布的数据显示，11月末黄金储备达7412万盎司，环比增加3万盎司，实现连续第13个月增持。这一动作看似微小，却折射出全球货币体 系深层变局。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青指出，国际金价可能长期保持易涨难跌态势，这背后是美元信用体系松动的冰山一角。 美元资产信任危机下的黄金突围 全球央行正以历史级速度囤积黄金。世界黄金协会数据显示，10月各国央行净购金量达53吨，创年内单月峰值。中国央行13个月的增持轨迹，恰与美联储加 息周期尾声重叠。光大银行分析师周茂华认为，美国公共债务风险攀升，叠加地缘冲突频发，迫使各国重新评估外汇储备安全性。黄金作为非主权信用资 产，成为对冲美元贬值风险的关键工具。 分 易服通助力企业 金价牛市的平民化启示 黄金市场已悄然进入第三轮牛市。光大证券高瑞东团队发现，在央行持续购金支撑下，金价中枢突破前高形成新平台。对普通投资者而言，这传递出明确信 号：当全球央行集体增持黄金时，个人资产配置中5%-10%的黄金比例，或许是对抗通胀与黑天鹅事件的低成本方案。 当前黄金的金融属性正超越商品属性，成为衡量全球信用风险的温度计。央行13个月的坚持，或许正是给市场参与者上的一堂风险教育 ...

每到年底，黄金市场总会掀起一波热潮，但今年的情况格外特殊。 2025年11月28日，上海黄金交易所的黄金价格突破942元/克，周大福、老凤祥等金店的足金饰品售价已飙升至1312-1318元/克。 金价暴涨下的残酷真相：很多人正在用错误的方式买黄金，踩坑率超90% 消费者对高金价敏感度上升，更倾向于购买小克重耳环、转运珠等轻量化产品，或通过"以旧换新"降低成本。 这种分化反映出当前市场的主导逻辑：投资者看重黄金的避险属性，而消费者更关注实际使用价值。 更值得关注的是，当前金价的走势与15年前的2010年惊人相似，同样是地缘冲突升级、央行大规模囤金、美联储降息预期升 温。 一位从业15年的黄金销售透露，近期门店咨询量暴增30%，顾客反复追问"要不要现在入手"，这与2010年金价暴涨前的市场氛 围如出一辙。 历史经验表明，当这三个信号同时出现时，黄金往往迎来一波长期行情。 对于普通消费者和投资者而言，能否抓住机会，关键在于能否避开认知误区，做出理性决策。 金价涨势多夸张？ 首饰和投资冰火两重天 尽管金价持续攀升，市场却呈现"投资热、消费冷"的分化态势。 投资金条销量逆势上涨，尤其在北京、上海等城市，黄金回购业务量同 ...

Group 1 - The core logic of gold investment is based on three main factors: 1) long-term loosening of the dollar credit system and continuous gold purchases by central banks; 2) potential levels of dollar yields, which are influenced by the state of the U.S. economy; 3) short-term demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical disturbances [1] - Gold ETF funds hold physical gold contracts traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, directly corresponding to the physical gold stored in the exchange's vaults, making investment in gold ETFs equivalent to direct investment in physical gold [1] - The price fluctuations of gold ETFs closely follow the AU9999 spot contracts, which represent domestic gold prices, with a requirement that at least 90% of the fund's assets must be held in physical gold [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices reached a new high on October 15, with COMEX gold standing strong at $4,200 per ounce after a slight pullback on October 9. The gold ETF (518800) rose by 2.45%, leading the market. The medium-term outlook for gold remains positive, with a recommendation to focus on the gold ETF (518800) [1]. Group 1: Key Drivers of Gold Prices - The core logic driving gold prices includes three main factors: (1) long-term weakening of the dollar credit system and ongoing gold purchases by central banks; (2) medium-term potential levels of dollar yields, influenced by the state of the U.S. economy; (3) short-term geopolitical disturbances leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets [1]. - The potential decline in U.S. dollar yields may further support gold prices. A weaker U.S. economy could lead to lower dollar yields, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold, thus increasing its relative value against the dollar [1]. Group 2: Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the short term, geopolitical disturbances are likely to persist, which may trigger a surge in gold prices. However, the long-term logic remains solid, suggesting that investors should continue to monitor the situation and consider positioning themselves after any pullbacks [2].

Market Performance - A-shares showed strong performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.22% to 3912.21 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 2.36% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.09 trillion yuan, significantly lower than the previous day [1] - The technology sector, particularly photovoltaic, machinery, and communication stocks, led the gains, while defensive assets like gold also saw an increase [1] Investor Sentiment - Investor risk appetite was strong today, with over 4,300 stocks gaining [1] - Small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks, and growth stocks were favored over value stocks [1] Trade Tensions and Market Outlook - The escalation of US-China trade tensions has led to a cautious sentiment among investors, particularly affecting high-valuation technology stocks [2][3] - Despite the trade tensions, the market has shown resilience, with investors having anticipated the complexities of US-China relations, limiting panic selling [2] - The trade conflict is viewed as a "lose-lose" situation, which may prevent further deterioration of the situation [2] Structural Opportunities - The A-share market is expected to exhibit more structural characteristics, with a recommendation to avoid previously high-flying sectors linked to overseas tech stocks [3] - Future opportunities may arise from domestic policies, particularly in high-end manufacturing and self-sufficient supply chains [3] Bond Market - The bond market remains neutral, with some signs of improvement, as the yield on 10-year government bonds has dipped below 1.75% [3] - Recent economic data has raised concerns about China's economic outlook, prompting a watchful stance on bond investments [3] Gold Market - Gold prices reached new highs, with COMEX gold trading above $4,200 per ounce [5] - The medium-term outlook for gold remains positive, driven by factors such as the weakening dollar credit system and ongoing geopolitical tensions [7][8] - Short-term geopolitical issues may lead to further spikes in gold prices, but the long-term fundamentals remain strong [8]