A股10月首个交易日，黄金资产大涨黄金股ETF(159562)大涨8.95%，年内涨103.43%；黄金ETF华夏(518850)涨4.53%，年内涨47.54%。 这不仅仅是一次简单的资产价格波动，从更宏观的维度看，这是时代的巨变。 在这一历史性时刻，重新审视黄金价值，不仅关乎财富的保值增值，也是理解世界格局的一把钥匙。 01 多重利好 十一假期，金价历史性突破4000美元一盎司的大关，现货黄金今年以来更是涨超53%，在全球大类资产中表现亮眼。 金价的飙升，是多重因素在特定历史节点上共振的结果，也可以说是一场名副其实的"完美风暴"。 首先，在地缘政治方面，冲突已经变得常态化、阵营化。 持续的俄乌战争、巴以冲突，以及未来可能出现的其他地区性热战，使得全球地缘政治风险溢价成为黄金的常态支撑。 世界正从全球化合作转向地缘集团竞争，信任的崩塌使得黄金这一"无国籍货币"的价值凸显。 其次，是去美元化浪潮的暗流涌动。 美国将美元武器化（如冻结俄罗斯外汇储备）的行为，惊醒了全球众多非西方国家。 这不仅是资产配置，更是国家层面的战略安全需求。 而近期美国政府的停摆事件，更进一步削弱了投资者对美国财政稳健性的信心。 再者，美 ...

作者 | 深鹏 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 十一假期，金价历史性突破 4000 美元一盎司的大关，现货黄金今年以来更是涨超 53% ，在全球大类资产中表现亮眼。 A 股 10 月首个交易日，黄金资产大涨黄金股 ETF(159562) 大涨 8.95% ，年内涨 103.43% ；黄金 ETF 华夏 (518850) 涨 4.53% ，年 内涨 47.54% 。 这不仅仅 是一次简单的资产价格波动， 从更宏观的维度看，这是时代的巨变 。 在这一历史性时刻，重新审视黄金价值，不仅关乎财富的保值 增值 ， 也是 理解世界格局的一把钥匙 。 多重利好 01 持续的俄乌战争、巴以冲突，以及未来可能出现的其他地区性热战，使得全球地缘政治风险溢价成为黄金的常态支撑。 世界正从全球化合作转向地缘集团竞争，信任的崩塌使得黄金这一 "无国籍货币"的价值凸显。 其次，是 去美元化浪潮的暗流涌动 。 美国将美元武器化（如冻结俄罗斯外汇储备）的行为，惊醒了全球众多非西方国家。 这不仅是资产配置，更是国家层面的战略安全需求。 而近期 美国政府的停摆事件， 更进一步 削弱了投资者对美国财政稳健性的信心 ...

中信证券指出，当前国内金矿股涨至高位引发市场对于估值方法和估值空间的疑惑。对此我们认为，一 是方向上，金价上涨动能充足叠加金矿企业量增加速释放，量价齐升有望推动板块PE继续向上修复； 二是空间上，国内金矿股在现金流和资源维度被显著低估，未来两种估值方法的国内推广有望促进重 估。定性和定量两个层面，我们均看好国内黄金股的配置价值。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 10月7日，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，我国9月末黄金储备报7406万盎司，环比增加4万盎司，为连 续第11个月增持黄金。 瑞银近期发布报告称，黄金市场目前倾向于看涨行情，预计到2026年年中金价将升至4200美元/盎司。 瑞银认为，美元走弱、央行大举购买黄金以及ETF投资增加等因素对金价构成利好，同时建议黄金在投 资组合中的配置比例为5%左右。 10月9日，COMEX黄金期货价格早盘小幅回调后再度拉升，目前交投于4056美元附近，黄金相关ETF午 后延续强势，截至收盘，黄金股ETF(159562)涨近9%，其持仓股四川黄金、山东黄金、中金黄金、白银 有色、江西铜业股份等股批量涨停，西部黄金、紫金矿业、赤峰黄金等股纷纷走强，黄金ETF华夏 (51885 ...

近日黄金股ETF（159562）持续获资金布局，近12天获得连续资金净流入，合计"吸金"9.38亿元，黄金股ETF最新份额达7.81亿份，最新规模达15.92亿元， 均创近1年新高。 9月16日 ，受隔夜金价新高带动，上金所SGE黄金9999早盘高开，三大指数纷纷回调，黄金相关产品表现分化，截至11:13，黄金股ETF（159562）跌 2.00%，其持仓股跌多涨少，豫光金铅、株冶集团、江西铜业股份、万国黄金集团等股纷纷重挫，截至9月15日，黄金股ETF近1年净值上涨78.85%，涨幅居 赛道首位，有色金属ETF基金（516650）跌3.13%，黄金ETF华夏（518850）涨0.83%。 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 201899 | 影要见,不 | -2.08% | 11.62% | | 600547 | 山东黄金 | -0.97% | 10.72% | | 600489 | 中金黄金 | -1.68% | 7.91% | | 600988 | 赤峰黄金 | -1.67% | 7.69% | | 01818 | 招金矿业 | ...

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced fluctuations after reaching new highs, with COMEX gold futures closing at $3602.40 per ounce, down 0.91% [1] - The recent ADP employment data for August showed an increase of 54,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 65,000, indicating potential economic weakness [1] - The market is now pricing in nearly a 100% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September following the disappointing employment figures [1] Group 2 - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose by 8,000 to 237,000, marking the highest level since June, which further supports the case for a rate cut [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated the necessity of initiating rate cuts in the upcoming meeting, suggesting multiple cuts could occur within the next 3 to 6 months [1] - Analysts noted an acceleration in gold prices since last Friday, driven by increased safe-haven demand as equity markets show signs of weakness [1]

Group 1 - The three major indices experienced a collective pullback, with gold prices fluctuating after reaching $3,578, while the performance of gold-related ETFs showed divergence [1] - The non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) fell by 2.03%, with strong performances from stocks like Silver Holdings (601212) and Western Gold (601069), while companies like Huayou Cobalt (603799) and Tin Industry Co. (000960) led the decline [1] - Over the past five trading days, there has been a continuous inflow of 109 million, with a net inflow of 54 million yesterday, while the gold stock ETF (159562) fell by 1.08% [1] Group 2 - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has significantly increased, with the probability of maintaining rates in September dropping to 10.3% and the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut rising to 89.7% [1] - According to Debon Securities, the combination of the Fed's rate cut expectations and the gradual decline of the dollar's global status is accelerating the long-term logic, leading to sustained optimism for gold, which is expected to push silver prices higher [1] Group 3 - The non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) tracks the CSI segmented non-ferrous metal industry theme index, focusing on industrial metals like gold, copper, and aluminum, as well as rare earths and tungsten, with respective weights of 29.6% for copper, 14.4% for aluminum, 14.0% for rare earths, 13.5% for gold, and 7.1% for lithium [2]

Group 1 - The three major indices experienced a collective pullback, with gold prices fluctuating after reaching $3,578, while gold-related ETFs showed mixed performance [1] - The CME "FedWatch" tool indicates a significant increase in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut, with the likelihood of maintaining rates dropping to 10.3% and a 25 basis point cut rising to 89.7% [1] - Debon Securities suggests that the combination of rising expectations for a Fed rate cut and the gradual decline of the dollar's global status is accelerating the long-term logic, leading to sustained optimism for gold and potential upward pressure on silver prices [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) tracks the CSI segmented non-ferrous metal industry theme index, focusing on industrial metals like gold, copper, and aluminum, as well as rare earths, tungsten, and energy metals like lithium and cobalt [1] - The weightings of various metals in the index are as follows: copper 29.6%, aluminum 14.4%, rare earths 14.0%, gold 13.5%, and lithium 7.1% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are expected to continue rising due to favorable market conditions, including anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar [2] - On August 28, major stock indices strengthened, driven by rising gold prices and positive half-year earnings reports from gold-related companies [1] - Shandong Gold and Western Gold reported significant profit increases for the first half of the year, with Shandong Gold's net profit reaching 2.808 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 102.98%, and Western Gold's net profit at 154 million yuan, a year-on-year surge of 131.94% [1] Group 2 - The market is seeing a new allocation window for gold stocks in August, with expectations of continued price increases following a period of consolidation [2] - The easing expectations of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy are beneficial for reducing the cost of holding gold, which supports gold price performance [2] - Gold ETFs, such as Huaxia Gold ETF and Gold Stock ETF, have the lowest management and custody fees in the sector, at a combined rate of 0.2% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impact of the U.S. imposing a 50% tariff on India, which has led to increased risk aversion and a subsequent rise in gold prices, benefiting gold-related stocks and ETFs [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold prices experienced a significant upward movement, with gold stock ETFs (159562) rising by 1.38% and individual stocks like China National Gold International increasing by over 10% [1] - Other gold-related companies such as Zhaojin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Jiangxi Copper also showed strong performance [1] - The gold ETF Huaxia (518850) saw a modest increase of 0.21%, while the non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) declined by 0.22%, indicating a mixed performance in the sector [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Gold mining companies reported strong performance in the first half of the year, with over 80% of the 24 companies that disclosed their mid-year reports showing positive earnings, averaging a net profit growth rate of 58.44% [1] - The overall development trend for gold mining companies remains positive, with expectations for continued earnings growth [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Since July, various factors such as anti-involution, tariff conflicts, and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have been influencing the market, leading to recommendations for investment in non-ferrous metals [1] - Gold stocks have shown a notable lag compared to other sub-sectors, suggesting potential for valuation recovery as market sentiment improves [1] - The earnings elasticity and long-term growth certainty of gold stocks are expected to drive their valuation recovery in the near term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced fluctuations with significant movements in various sectors, particularly in non-ferrous metals and gold, amid economic indicators suggesting a potential easing of monetary policy in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The three major indices saw a rise and subsequent decline, with Xinjiang revitalization and Western infrastructure leading the gains, while PEEK materials and Kimi concepts faced declines [1] - The non-ferrous metals ETF (516650) increased by 1.29%, marking a strong five-day rally, with holdings like Minmetals rising over 6% [1] - The gold stocks ETF (159562) rose by 0.65%, with top performers including Shandong Gold and Cuihua Jewelry [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Following a disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll report, the U.S. July services PMI fell to 50.1, below expectations and previous values [1] - Notably, the prices index within the PMI rose to 69.9, the highest level since October 2022, indicating inflationary pressures [1] - The increasing economic downward pressure in the U.S. suggests a potential opening for interest rate cuts, which could benefit gold prices [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - In the non-ferrous metals sector, several companies have announced dividend plans, and prices for rare earths and tungsten continue to rise [1] - The introduction of anti-involution policies is leading to a more orderly competitive landscape in the industry, providing support for energy metal price stability [1] - The supply and demand dynamics for industrial metals remain active, contributing to a positive outlook for the sector [1]