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今明两年不买房,5年后是更买不起还是随便挑?这次有答案了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-17 21:46
楼市沉浮录:五年后的房产,机遇与挑战并存? 曾经,"现在不买房,五年后后悔"的论调甚嚣尘上,如今却被"等等党"的胜利悄然改写。楼市风云变幻,分化已成不争的事实,有人欢欣鼓舞,有人愁眉不 展。那么,五年后,我们究竟是会为今日的犹豫而扼腕叹息,还是能从容挑选心仪的房产?答案远非简单的"涨"或"跌"二元对立,而是一幅城市、区域、产 品三重分化的大时代画卷。 首先,我们必须认识到,楼市触底尚未完成,而分化格局已然确立。国际投行高盛预测,在2027年前,房价将在2021年高点基础上再跌10%,这意味着现 在"咬牙上车",三年后账面可能出现数十万的亏损。然而,中金、中信建投等国内机构却持不同观点,认为一线城市(北上广深)将在2025年底前企稳,强 二线城市如杭州、成都则需等到2026-2027年,而三四线城市则可能继续下行。 房价能否迎来普涨?答案是否定的。人口结构的变化是不容忽视的关键因素。25-39岁的购房主力人群,到2027年将减少4200万,相当于该年龄段总人口的 15%。缺少了接盘侠,房价上涨的动力何在? 城市分化:冰火两重天 当下的楼市,犹如两个平行世界,演绎着截然不同的命运。北京五环外限购政策的放宽,仅一周 ...
北京楼市新政后,观望客户开始行动了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-10 07:55
8月9日,是北京楼市迎来政策调整后的首个交易日。8日晚,北京市住房和城乡建设委员会、北京住房公积金管理中心联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本 市房地产相关政策的通知》,其中"五环外购房不限套数"及多项公积金政策优化成为市场焦点。新政首日,北京楼市市场活跃度提升。 严跃进:5环以外的商品住房不限套数了,过去可能只能买一套、两套,现在数量更多了,客观上来讲,使得我们的购房政策更宽松。另外, 也跟我们这次讲的职住平衡有关系,确实有些人是在这些地方上班,因为各种条件有限制。所以这次促进了职住平衡,是止跌回稳巩固的一个 政策。 在新房方面,新政首日,昌平区首个好房子项目龙湖观萃售楼处内人声鼎沸,沙盘区、签约区、洽谈区座无虚席,销售经理时光介绍: 时光:其实今天是出政策的第一天,也是第一个周六。今天整体来讲,上午的到访量比以前也提升了很多。我们总共18个事业部,基本上都轮 了两三圈了,现在属于是一个都还没有吃上午饭的状态。 新政指出,符合本市商品住房购买条件的居民家庭,购买五环外商品住房不限套数。易居研究院副院长严跃进表示: 记者走进通州区北京链家当代名筑南门店,北京链家当代名筑南门店商圈经理张小磊向记者介绍: L TT r ...
越秀北京昌平再“补仓” 联合贝好家拿下生命科学园地块
Zhong Guo Jing Ying Bao· 2025-06-06 13:55
Core Viewpoint - The recent land auction in Beijing's Changping District attracted multiple companies, resulting in a total revenue of 13.06 billion yuan, with a consortium led by Yuexiu and Future Science City acquiring a key plot for 2.395 billion yuan [1][4]. Group 1: Land Auction Details - Four plots were auctioned in Beijing, specifically in Haidian, Shijingshan, and Changping districts, with a total revenue of 13.06 billion yuan [1]. - The acquired plot, located in the Changping District's Zhongguancun Life Science Park, has a total area of 30,700 square meters and a planned construction area of 79,900 square meters, with a starting price of 2.395 billion yuan [2]. - The consortium's floor price translates to 29,977 yuan per square meter [4]. Group 2: Strategic Importance of the Acquired Land - The land's value is enhanced by its proximity to the Changping Line subway station and the planned Life Valley Station of the 19th subway line, expected to be completed by 2027, which will improve transportation efficiency [3]. - The area is designated as a "technology park integrating basic research, achievement transformation, supporting services, and residential functions," indicating a focus on urban integration and talent attraction [3]. Group 3: Company Involvement and Future Plans - The consortium includes companies like Yuexiu, Beijing Urban Construction, Future Science City, and Beihome, with Yuexiu already having multiple projects in the Changping area [4]. - Beihome, a new venture under Beike, aims to provide data-driven residential development services and has established regional offices in major cities, indicating a strategic expansion in the real estate market [5].
筑底时期,房产行业的必答题与附加题
阿尔法工场研究院· 2025-04-07 11:20
Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is transitioning from a focus on quantity to a focus on quality, technology, and service as it navigates through challenging times [1][2][17]. Policy Changes and Market Dynamics - The end of the purchase restrictions marks the most relaxed environment for the real estate sector in 20 years, signaling the conclusion of a real estate bull market [2]. - The term "bottoming out" has become common in government assessments of the real estate market, indicating a shift in focus towards stabilizing the industry [3][4]. - The government is implementing policies to ensure project delivery and financial security while exploring new development models to help companies recover from losses [4][5]. Liquidity and Delivery Challenges - The lack of liquidity in the real estate market poses significant risks, as it discourages consumer purchases and hampers cash recovery for companies [7][8]. - The period from 2021 to 2024 is critical for delivery pressures, with 2024 potentially being the last major delivery year for the industry [10]. - The government has introduced measures to stimulate liquidity, including policies focused on timely delivery, financial safety, and ensuring quality housing [9][12]. Shift in Housing Demand - There is a notable shift in housing demand from mere availability to quality, with the urban residential unit ratio reaching 1.07 in 2023, indicating a transition from "having a home" to "having a good home" [15]. - The emphasis on "good housing" is expected to intensify by 2025, prompting leading real estate companies to enhance their focus on safety, comfort, and sustainability [15]. New Development Models - The concept of a "new development model" has gained traction, with government reports emphasizing the need for affordable housing and a coordinated mechanism involving people, housing, land, and finance [20][21]. - Real estate companies are encouraged to diversify their business models beyond traditional home sales, exploring areas such as rental housing, property management, and real estate agency services [22]. Financial Resilience and Business Diversification - Many companies are beginning to adopt long-term strategies and light asset operations, supported by government policies [24]. - For instance, Longfor Group has successfully integrated development, operation, and service sectors, becoming one of the few profitable companies in 2024 [26]. - Longfor's operational and service segments generated significant revenue, contributing to overall financial stability [27][32]. Future Growth and Market Potential - The expansion of the middle class in first- and second-tier cities is expected to drive demand for high-quality shopping centers and premium rental apartments [35]. - The shift towards service-oriented operations in commercial real estate is being supported by government initiatives to revitalize existing assets [37]. - The strategy of "space as a service" is being embraced by companies like Longfor, which has diversified its business portfolio to include commercial investment and asset management [40]. Conclusion - As the industry transitions from capital-driven growth to capability-driven growth, companies must leverage policy benefits to enhance service quality and operational efficiency, positioning themselves for success in a competitive landscape [40].