Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - From September 22 - 26, 2025, the central bank net - withdrew funds through 7 - day reverse repurchase and conducted 14 - day reverse repurchase operations during the quarter - end period. MLF was incrementally renewed. The inter - bank funding market fluctuated significantly due to the quarter - end effect [2][6]. - The net payment scale of government bonds decreased from September 22 - 28, 2025, and the majority of inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) yields rose. The net financing of NCDs turned negative. The average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased, and the durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds both marginally increased [2][8][9]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Funding Market - **Central Bank Operations**: From September 22 - 26, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 2594 billion yuan, 14 - day reverse repurchase was 9000 billion yuan, and MLF had a net injection of 3000 billion yuan. On September 29 and 30, 7 - day reverse repurchases totaling 5166 billion yuan were due, and on October 9, 7 - day reverse repurchases of 12325 billion yuan and 14 - day reverse repurchases of 3000 billion yuan were due [6]. - **Funding Rate Fluctuations**: From September 22 - 26, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 decreased by 5.0 and 5.5 basis points respectively compared to September 15 - 19, while the average values of DR007 and R007 increased by 1.9 and 9.9 basis points respectively. The funding market loosened from September 22 - 23, fluctuated significantly from September 24 - 25, and the funding rate dropped significantly on September 26 [7]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From September 22 - 28, 2025, the net payment of government bonds was about 716 billion yuan, a decrease of about 3764 billion yuan compared to September 15 - 21. From September 29 - 30, the expected net payment was 2121 billion yuan [7]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificate of Deposits - **Yield Changes**: As of September 26, 2025, the yields of 1M, 3M, and 1Y NCDs increased by 7.5, 1.0, and 1.0 basis points respectively compared to September 19 [8]. - **Net Financing**: From September 22 - 28, 2025, the net financing of NCDs was about - 1782 billion yuan, turning negative from 1295 billion yuan in September 15 - 21. The expected maturity repayment from September 29 - October 5 was 1688 billion yuan, and the expected maturity in October was 18443 billion yuan, significantly lower than 35470 billion yuan in September [8]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio**: From September 22 - 26, 2025, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.65%, up from 107.32% in September 15 - 19 [9]. - **Bond Fund Duration**: On September 26, 2025, the median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds was 4.05 years, up 0.01 years week - on - week, at the 59.2% quantile since early 2022. The median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - style pure bond funds was 1.58 years, up 0.03 years week - on - week, at the 14.1% quantile since early 2022 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of the 14-day reverse repurchase operation aims to strengthen the position of the 7-day reverse repurchase policy rate, enhancing liquidity management precision, with smaller banks expected to benefit less than larger banks [1] Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The adjustment in reverse repurchase operations is designed to improve liquidity management and reinforce the importance of the 7-day reverse repurchase rate [1] - The focus on enhancing liquidity management is expected to lead to a more precise control of monetary policy [1] Group 2: Market Impact - The ongoing consumer stimulus policies are being intensified, contributing to the accumulation of positive factors in the banking sector [1] - Mid-term performance improvements are anticipated, with a potential turning point in the banking sector's performance [1] Group 3: Future Considerations - Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of policies being released, as well as the demand for retail business and improvements in risk management [1] - Upcoming events such as the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session and the 15th Five-Year Plan reform measures are crucial for future developments [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The adjustment of the 14 - day reverse repurchase tender method is beneficial for the decline of cross - quarter funds prices. The current institution's cross - quarter progress is slow, and the central bank's adjustment shows its intention to support cross - quarter liquidity, which helps to stabilize the cross - quarter funds price. Although this week's funds were tightened due to multiple factors, it cannot be inferred that the central bank's attitude has changed. Next week, the overall liquidity pressure is expected to ease marginally [3][26][29]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Money Market 3.1.1 This Week's Funds Review - The central bank's OMO had a net injection of 5623 billion yuan this week, and a 6000 - billion - yuan 6M outright reverse repurchase was carried out on Monday, with a monthly net injection of 3000 billion yuan. A 1500 - billion - yuan 1M treasury cash fixed - deposit operation was conducted on Wednesday, with a winning bid rate of 1.78%, the same as the previous value. Affected by factors such as the tax period and government bond payments, funds were marginally tightened. DR001 once rose to 1.51% on Thursday and only eased significantly on Friday [3][8]. - The trading volume of pledged repurchase fluctuated and declined this week, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 0.33 trillion yuan to 7.16 trillion yuan. The net lending of large banks decreased in the first half of the week and rebounded above 4 trillion yuan in the second half. The net lending of city commercial banks and joint - stock banks decreased on Monday and recovered in the middle of the week but declined again on Friday. The net lending of non - banks increased significantly on Wednesday and then decreased slightly, while the net borrowing of non - banks increased in the second half of the week. The funds gap index first rose and then fell [3][16]. - The September cross - quarter progress of inter - bank institutions and exchanges was slow, with the overall market cross - quarter progress at the lowest level in recent years. The excess reserve ratio in August decreased by 0.1 pct to 1.1%, lower than the expected 1.4%, mainly due to the unexpected increase of 3370 billion yuan in government deposits [3][20][22]. - This week, funds tightened marginally due to multiple exogenous disturbances, especially the freezing of 8512 billion yuan by the new stock Jinhuaxincai on the Beijing Stock Exchange, which caused a significant increase in GC001 on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, funds eased on Friday, and the average values of DR001 and DR007 since September were 1.39% and 1.48% respectively, similar to those since Q3, so it cannot be inferred that the central bank's attitude has changed [3][26]. 3.1.2 Next Week's Funds Outlook - Next week, the treasury bond payment scale is expected to be 3320 billion yuan, and the local bond issuance scale of 12 regions is 1961 billion yuan, with an actual payment scale of 2422 billion yuan. The net payment scale of government bonds will decrease from 4030 billion yuan this week to 908 billion yuan, but the single - day net payment on Monday will reach 2525 billion yuan [3][33]. - The report maintains the assumption that the treasury bond issuance in September is 1.49 trillion yuan with a net financing of about 7300 billion yuan, and the local bond issuance is 9000 billion yuan with a net financing of 4900 billion yuan. It is estimated that the government bond issuance scale in September is about 2.39 trillion yuan, with a net financing scale of about 1.22 trillion yuan [3][41]. - It is estimated that the treasury bond issuance scale in October is about 1.25 trillion yuan, with a net financing scale of about 2700 billion yuan, and the local bond issuance scale is 7100 billion yuan, with a net financing scale of 4600 billion yuan. The overall government bond issuance scale in October is expected to be about 1.96 trillion yuan, with a net financing of about 7300 billion yuan [3][44]. - Next week, the maturity scale of reverse repurchases will rise to 18268 billion yuan, and there will be a 3000 - billion - yuan MLF maturity on Thursday. The main exogenous disturbances to the funds will be concentrated in the first half of the week. Although the demand for cross - quarter funds will increase in the second half of the week, the central bank will stabilize funds through 14 - day reverse repurchase injections, MLF is likely to be renewed in excess, and the end - of - quarter fiscal expenditure may also provide some hedging. It is expected that the liquidity pressure will ease marginally compared to this week [3][52]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - This week, the 1Y Shibor rate rose 0.6BP to 1.67%, and the secondary rate of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit rose 0.5BP to 1.68% [53]. - The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased while the maturity scale decreased this week, with a net financing of 903 billion yuan. The net financing scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 2469 billion yuan, - 843 billion yuan, - 529 billion yuan, and - 47 billion yuan respectively. The issuance proportion of 1Y certificates of deposit rose to 23%, and the 3M certificates of deposit had the highest issuance proportion at 36%. Next week, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit is about 8941 billion yuan, an increase of 881 billion yuan compared to this week [57]. - The issuance success rates of state - owned banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks increased compared to last week, while that of joint - stock banks decreased. Except for the relatively low issuance success rate of state - owned banks, the others were above the average level in recent years. The issuance spread of 1Y certificates of deposit between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed [58]. 3.3 Bill Market This week, bill rates fluctuated and rose. The rates of 3M and 6M national stock bills rose 10BP and 7BP respectively to 1.25% and 0.86% [4]. 3.4 Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - This week, bond yields fluctuated at a high level, and the spreads of credit and Tier 2 perpetual bonds were relatively stable. Large banks' willingness to increase bond holdings decreased significantly, especially for medium - and short - term treasury bonds. Their willingness to reduce holdings of 3 - 7 - year policy financial bonds and local bonds increased, and they tended to reduce holdings of Tier 2 perpetual bonds [4]. - Trading - type institutions tended to increase bond holdings, including fund companies and securities companies. The willingness of other products to increase holdings also rose, while that of other institutions decreased. Allocation - type institutions tended to reduce bond holdings. Rural commercial banks tended to reduce bond holdings, the insurance companies' willingness to increase holdings decreased, and the wealth management products' willingness to increase holdings was basically the same as last week [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the liquidity tightened, mainly due to tax payments, concentrated government bond issuances, and increased capital demand from new stock subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange. The capital interest rates rose significantly to a relatively high level since the second quarter, with increased volatility. The willingness of large - state - owned banks to lend in the inter - bank market needs further restoration, and the central bank maintained net injections, with relatively restrained injections in the first half - week [1][11]. - When approaching the quarter - end, in addition to seasonal disturbances, non - seasonal factors such as more prominent credit expansion at the end of the quarter and the relatively weak "resilience" of large - state - owned banks' lending willingness may amplify the volatility of quarter - end capital interest rates. However, factors such as accelerated fiscal spending and the central bank's support, along with the reform of the 14 - day reverse repurchase tender method, may form positive factors. Overall, the cross - quarter capital situation may present a pattern of "stable with concerns", with controllable pressure but potentially enlarged fluctuations [2][21]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1. How to Assess the Cross - Quarter Liquidity Pressure? - **This Week's Liquidity Tightening**: This week, the liquidity tightened due to tax payments, government bond issuances, and new stock subscriptions. The capital interest rates rose significantly, and the central bank maintained net injections. The pressure eased towards the end of the week [11]. - **Differences in This Quarter - End**: Compared with previous years, this quarter - end may see more prominent credit expansion. The lending willingness of large - state - owned banks has shown weaker "resilience", which may increase the volatility of quarter - end capital interest rates. However, fiscal spending and the central bank's support, as well as the reform of the 14 - day reverse repurchase tender method, may have a positive impact [21]. 3.2. Open Market: Over 2 Trillion Yuan to Mature Next Week - **This Week's Operations**: During the tax - payment period this week, the central bank maintained net injections of reverse repurchases, with relatively restrained injections in the first half - week and increased injections in the second half. As of September 19, the balance of reverse repurchases was 182.68 billion yuan, an increase of 56.23 billion yuan compared to September 12 [33][34]. - **Next Week's Maturities**: From September 22 - 26, the open - market maturities will exceed 2 trillion yuan, including 182.68 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and 30 billion yuan of MLF [3][33]. 3.3. Government Bonds: Issuance Scale to Decline Next Week - **This Week's Situation**: This week, the net payment of government bonds was 40.3 billion yuan. The cumulative issuance of national debt this year reached 5.5435 trillion yuan, with a progress of 90%, and the cumulative issuance of new local bonds was 4.2292 trillion yuan, with a progress of 81% [43][44]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: Next week, the planned issuance of government bonds is 41.31 billion yuan, a decline from this week. The net payment of national debt will be - 8.97 billion yuan, and that of local bonds will be 15.05 billion yuan [4][43]. 3.4. Excess Reserve Tracking and Forecast - **Forecast Results**: It is predicted that the excess reserve ratio in September 2025 will be about 1.73%, a month - on - month increase of about 0.25 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.07 percentage points [46]. 3.5. Money Market: Net Lending of Large - State - Owned Banks Declined - **Interest Rate Changes**: As of September 19, compared with September 12, DR001, DR007, R001, and R007 all increased. The overnight and 7 - day SHIBOR and CNH HIBOR also changed to varying degrees. The interest rates of interest rate swaps and bill discounts also had corresponding changes [5][49]. - **Trading Volume**: The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, while that of the Shanghai Stock Exchange's new pledged repurchase of national debt increased [61]. - **Net Lending**: This week, the average net lending of the banking system was 2.74 trillion yuan, a decrease of 377.2 billion yuan compared with last week. Among them, the average net lending of large - state - owned banks was 3.48 trillion yuan, a decrease of 264.6 billion yuan [67]. 3.6. Inter - Bank Certificates of Deposit 3.6.1. Primary Market: Issuance Scale Increased - **Overall Situation**: This week, the total issuance of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 98.35 billion yuan, with a net financing of 896 million yuan, an increase compared with last week [74]. - **By Issuer**: State - owned banks had the highest issuance scale and net financing. The issuance proportions of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks changed compared with last week [74]. - **By Maturity**: 3 - month certificates of deposit had the highest issuance scale, and 6 - month certificates of deposit had the highest net financing. The issuance proportions of different maturities also changed [74]. 3.6.2. Secondary Market: Yields Rose - **By Maturity**: The yields of AAA - rated certificates of deposit with different maturities all increased [98]. - **By Credit Rating**: The yields of 1 - year certificates of deposit with different credit ratings all increased [98][99][100].