半导体行业 超配（维持） AI 仍为创新主线，算力、存力、设备、先进封装等 多环节受益 投 资 策 略 资料来源：Wind，东莞证券研究所 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 半导体行业 2026 年上半年投资策略 2025 年 11 月 24 日 S0340521070002 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： liumenglin@dgzq.com.cn S0340520060001 电话：0769-22119430 邮箱： chenweiguang@dgzq.com.cn 推荐 分析师：刘梦麟 SAC 执业证书编号： 投资要点： 板块业绩及走势：受益AI快速演进重塑半导体需求结构，半导体产 业在2025年实现新一轮增长，2025年前三季度营收、净利润同比提 高。2025年以来，申万半导体行业指数估值快速上行，年内走势跑 赢大盘，且各细分板块均录得正向涨幅。 分析师：陈伟光 SAC 执业证书编号： 算力：大模型加速落地推高算力规模，国产算力有望突破。近年人 工智能成为各国逐力焦点，境外对 ...

"支撑AI大模型的底层基础设施——服务器、数据中心、存储，有望从2024年的1490亿美元增长到2030 年的3400亿美元，是半导体市场中增长最快的部分。"11月19日，国际半导体产业协会（SEMI）中国总 裁冯莉在2025年产业链供应链国际合作交流会暨企业家太湖论坛分论坛——集成电路产业链合作对接交 流会上指出。 AI浪潮不仅点燃了以GPU为代表的逻辑芯片，也拉动了对存储芯片的需求。 今年以来，三星、SK海力士等国际存储巨头逐渐将部分DRAM产能转向HBM，同时将NAND产能聚焦 于高层数、高性能产品，以满足AI需求。 这一集体转向也给存储市场留下了供给缺口。至讯创新科技（无锡）有限公司董事长汤强指出，由AI 算力基建驱动，2025年开始存储芯片迎来了"超级周期"。"业内人士预计在接下来数年内，存储芯片都 会处于缺货状态。因此，这次周期也为存储代工的发展提供了机会。" 代工需求激增 "出于管理效率、成本控制等考虑，国际存储大厂量产的技术节点通常不超过3-4代。当主流技术推进到 300层左右时，100层以下的中低层数3D NAND逐渐被大厂放弃。"汤强指出。 眼下，随着国际存储大厂主动战略收缩，也给国内带来 ...

存储设备公司成长性："价格周期"和"技术周期"共振 带来高斜率 20251117 摘要 全球半导体设备市场由少数头部供应商主导，薄膜沉积领域通常有三家 左右，国内未来预计有两到三家主要公司。泛林集团通过拓展 CVD、ALD 等薄膜沉积技术，全球市占率接近 20%，干法刻蚀方面接 近 40%-50%。 泛林集团收入从 2014 年的 48.6 亿美元增长至 2024 年的 162 亿美元， 年复合增长率 12.8%，利润从 7.2 亿美元增至 42.9 亿美元，年复合增 长率约 20%。预计 2024 年至 2028 年收入复合增长率仍将保持在 10%左右，毛利率计划到 2028 年达到 50%左右。 3D NAND 技术推动了对刻蚀和薄膜沉积设备的需求，范林在 NAND 领 域的收入从 2014-2015 年的 16.3 亿美元增长到 2022 年的 74.7 亿美 元。长江存储被制裁后，中微公司和拓荆公司正在填补市场缺口。 存储器未来发展趋势是 NAND 向更高层数堆叠发展，DRAM 从平面结构 向 3D 结构演进，这将增加对刻蚀与薄膜沉积等装备的需求。逻辑芯片 制程不断演进，单晶圆片资本开支密度大幅提升。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the semiconductor equipment industry, highlighting growth opportunities driven by AI applications and advanced logic and memory technology upgrades [5]. Core Insights - The global semiconductor equipment market is projected to reach a record $125.5 billion by 2025, driven by capacity expansion for AI applications and technology iterations across various segments [1][11]. - China is expected to lead global spending on 300mm equipment, with an investment of $94 billion from 2026 to 2028, supported by national policies [17]. - AI applications are significantly boosting demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and NAND flash storage, with the overall revenue for AI semiconductors expected to grow from $8.2 billion to $41.3 billion from 2020 to 2030, at a CAGR of 24.4% [22][46]. Summary by Sections 1. Semiconductor Process Upgrades and AI-Driven Capital Expenditure - The semiconductor equipment market is expected to grow, with global spending on 300mm wafer fab equipment projected to exceed $100 billion for the first time in 2025, reaching $107 billion [10]. - AI applications are driving continuous growth in capital expenditure, with data center investments expected to rise from $17 billion in 2020 to $45.3 billion by 2028 [20]. - Advanced logic processes have progressed to the 2nm node, necessitating upgrades in equipment such as etching and deposition tools [26]. 2. AI Applications Driving Storage Demand Growth - The reduction in DDR4 production has led to a continuous increase in storage prices, with DDR4 prices expected to rise significantly due to supply constraints [35][36]. - High-end storage technologies are evolving, with 3D NAND layer counts expected to reach around 1000 layers, enhancing storage density [47]. - The demand for enterprise-grade SSDs is surging as AI models require efficient data storage solutions, with NAND storage demand projected to grow approximately 15% from 2024 to 2029 [46][56]. 3. Supply Chain Security and Self-Sufficiency - The report highlights the challenges in acquiring advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment from overseas, with the U.S. proposing broader bans on sales to China [57]. - Domestic semiconductor manufacturers are expected to gain market share due to supply constraints faced by international competitors, with companies like Changxin Technology projected to increase production capacity significantly [59]. - The focus on self-sufficiency in semiconductor equipment is emphasized, with companies like North Huachuang expanding their product offerings in etching and deposition equipment [60].

Core Insights - The electronic circuit and semiconductor industry is at a critical juncture driven by explosive growth in AI large models and global supply chain restructuring, with a 30-fold increase in computing core numbers over the past decade, while memory bandwidth growth is less than 1/5, leading to storage bottlenecks and material iteration challenges [1] Group 1: Storage Technology Breakthrough - Storage is viewed as the "reservoir" of AI computing power, with breakthroughs in technology directly impacting the efficiency of power release [3] - The forum will focus on three major technological directions: traditional storage upgrades, emerging storage implementations, and RV technology integration [3] Group 2: Material Innovation - Material innovation is the underlying logic for upgrading the semiconductor industry, with the forum addressing core material breakthroughs [4] - Key topics include advancements in AMB copper-clad ceramic substrates, third-generation semiconductors like SiC and GaN, and PCB material breakthroughs to meet high-density demands [5] Group 3: Digital Transformation and Intelligent Manufacturing - The forum will explore the application of AI technology across the entire PCB design, production, and testing process, enhancing defect recognition and production efficiency [5] - Discussions will include AI-based dynamic adjustments of key process parameters and the design logic of AI scheduling systems for flexible manufacturing [5] Group 4: Advanced Packaging and EDA Tools - Advanced packaging and EDA tools are becoming critical for breakthroughs in computing power, with a focus on system-level packaging (SiP) and Chiplet technology integration [7] - The forum will analyze the collaborative mechanisms between academia, research institutions, and enterprises to accelerate the industrialization of innovative results [11] Group 5: Forum Details - The "AI-Driven, Smart Chain Future: 2025 Electronic Circuit and Semiconductor Industry Innovation Forum" will take place on October 28, 2025, at the Shenzhen International Convention and Exhibition Center [10] - The forum will cover topics such as AI + PCB intelligent manufacturing, EDA technology breakthroughs, and the localization of AI computing chips [10]

Core Viewpoint - The company "Yangyuan Beverage" announced a capital increase of 1 billion yuan for its subsidiary "Wenming Qianhong Investment," raising the total scale of the private equity fund from 3 billion yuan to 4 billion yuan, with the company holding a 99.925% stake in the fund [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Activities - The capital increase will be used for investments in other projects, with no additional investments planned for currently invested projects [1]. - "Wenming Qianhong Investment" has already invested in seven companies, including 1 billion yuan in "Chongqing Ziguang Huazhi Technology," 8 billion yuan in "Ruipu Lanjun Energy," and 16 billion yuan in "Changjiang Storage" [1]. Group 2: Strategic Developments - "Wenming Qianhong Investment" is currently involved in a merger with another outdoor advertising company, "Fenzhong Media," with a valuation of 8.3 billion yuan [2]. - "Changjiang Storage," the parent company of "Changjiang Storage Technology," completed its shareholding reform, indicating a significant strategic development in the semiconductor sector [2].

Core Insights - The global spending on 300mm wafer fab equipment is projected to reach $374 billion from 2026 to 2028, driven by the surge in demand for AI chips and the emphasis on regional self-sufficiency in semiconductor supply chains [1][3] Equipment Spending Forecast - In 2025, global spending on 300mm wafer fab equipment is expected to exceed $100 billion for the first time, growing by 7% to reach $107 billion [1] - Investment is forecasted to grow by 9% in 2026 to $116 billion, by 4% in 2027 to $120 billion, and by 15% in 2028 to $138 billion [1] Market Segmentation Growth - The logic and microelectronics sector is anticipated to lead equipment expansion, with total investments reaching $175 billion from 2026 to 2028, primarily driven by foundries expanding capacity for processes below 2nm [4] - The memory segment is expected to be the second-largest, with total spending of $136 billion over three years, including over $79 billion for DRAM-related equipment and $56 billion for 3D NAND investments [5] - The analog sector is projected to exceed $41 billion in investments over the next three years, while the power-related sector, including compound semiconductors, is expected to see $27 billion in investments [5] Regional Growth - China is expected to maintain its lead in 300mm equipment spending, with investments projected at $94 billion from 2026 to 2028 [7] - South Korea is forecasted to invest $86 billion, ranking second globally, driven by demand for generative AI [7] - Taiwan is projected to invest $75 billion, focusing on 2nm and below capacity to maintain its leadership in advanced foundry technology [7] - The Americas are expected to invest $60 billion, with the U.S. suppliers expanding advanced process capacity to meet AI application demands [7] - Japan, Europe, and the Middle East, along with Southeast Asia, are projected to invest $32 billion, $14 billion, and $12 billion respectively, with policies aimed at alleviating semiconductor supply issues expected to boost investments by over 60% by 2028 compared to 2024 [7]

Core Insights - Changjiang Storage Technology Co., Ltd. (Chang Storage Group) has officially established its joint-stock company and elected its first board of directors, marking a significant step in its shareholding reform and governance structure upgrade [1][2] Group 1: Company Overview - Chang Storage Group is a key player in the domestic semiconductor industry, headquartered in Wuhan, Hubei, and has developed a diversified and collaborative industrial ecosystem [2] - The company covers core sectors including manufacturing, foundry, packaging and testing, industrial investment, park operation, and innovation incubation, forming a complete value chain from product R&D to production and investment [2] Group 2: Market Position and Future Prospects - Chang Storage's wholly-owned subsidiary, Changjiang Storage, is the only 3D NAND manufacturer in China and has secured over 10 billion in financing from a diverse range of stakeholders, including state-owned, private, industrial, and financial capital [2] - The current global AI computing boom is driving up demand for storage chips, and the recent share reform is expected to inject new momentum into the company's technological breakthroughs, capacity expansion, and domestic substitution process, positioning it to seize growth opportunities in the global storage chip market [2]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with the ChiNext index dropping over 2% in the afternoon session. AI hardware stocks, such as optical modules, faced declines, while the wind power sector saw significant gains with companies like Weili Transmission and Jixin Technology hitting the daily limit. Overall, more than 3,300 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets were in the red, with a total transaction volume of 2.17 trillion yuan [1]. Wind Power Sector - The wind power sector surged today, with companies like Jixin Technology and Jiaze New Energy achieving consecutive daily limits. The sector is catalyzed by China's commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 7%-10% from peak levels by 2035 and increasing wind and solar power capacity to six times that of 2020, targeting 3.6 billion kilowatts. Morgan Stanley predicts an acceleration in wind power installations during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with annual additions exceeding 110 GW, driven by favorable pricing and demand for offshore wind projects [4][6]. Domestic Chip Sector - The domestic chip sector remained active, with companies like Yangyuan Beverage and Xianglong Electric achieving consecutive daily limits. Changjiang Storage Technology recently completed its shareholding reform, indicating a valuation of 160 billion yuan. JPMorgan has raised its global storage market forecast, predicting a market size of nearly $300 billion by 2027, driven by increasing demand from cloud service providers [7][9]. New Energy Vehicles - The new energy vehicle sector saw significant gains, with companies like Zhejiang Xiantong and Tianqi Mould hitting daily limits. The launch of the new AITO M7 model saw over 10,000 units reserved within five minutes and over 30,000 in one hour. Analysts suggest that the integration of intelligent technologies in vehicles is expected to drive sales growth, supported by favorable policies and increasing market penetration of new energy vehicles [10][12]. Other Active Sectors - Other sectors such as environmental protection and military industry showed notable activity, while pharmaceuticals and PCB sectors experienced the largest declines [12].

Market News - The three major US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.38%, Nasdaq down 0.5%, and S&P 500 down 0.5%, marking the third consecutive day of decline [1] - Oracle fell over 5%, Tesla dropped over 4%, and Meta decreased over 1%, while Intel surged nearly 9% and Apple rose over 1% [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increased by 0.42%, with most Chinese concept stocks rising, including NIO, Xpeng Motors, and Bilibili, which all gained over 4% [1] - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.33% at $3780.5 per ounce and COMEX silver futures at $45.47 per ounce [1] - International oil prices fluctuated slightly, with WTI crude oil up 0.35% at $65.22 per barrel and Brent crude oil up 0.42% at $68.75 per barrel [1] Industry Insights - Changjiang Storage Technology Co., Ltd. completed its shareholding reform, with a valuation exceeding 160 billion yuan, and has established a collaborative industrial ecosystem covering flash memory manufacturing, wafer foundry, packaging testing, industrial investment, and innovation incubation [2] - The current price surge in the memory market is driven by demand from cloud service providers (CSPs), with a projected increase in capital expenditure of $18 billion for the 2025 fiscal year, boosting AI-related storage needs [2] - The DRAM price index has risen approximately 72% over the past six months, with expectations for enterprise-level storage prices to increase in Q4 [2] - The digital RMB international operation center officially commenced operations, aiming to improve the global cross-border payment system with a focus on "no loss, compliance, and interoperability" [3] - The global retail cross-border payment market is projected to reach $39.9 trillion by 2024 and grow to $65 trillion by 2032, with B2B payments dominating the market [3] - The largest humanoid robot training facility in China has opened in Beijing, expected to accelerate the evolution of humanoid robots and support their application in various industries [4] - The humanoid robot industry is anticipated to enter a critical growth phase by 2025, driven by advancements in component performance and cost reduction [4][5]