固收：强预期高估值，转债如何赚取超额？20250819 摘要 股票市场成交量持续抬升，增量资金入场，混合型和指数型基金扩容， 动量效应增强，电子、AI 等板块表现良好，预计转债估值将进一步上升， 股性策略表现突出。 银行转债到期或临近到期，部分资金可能流向光伏、化工等反内卷板块， 以及银行内部结构调仓带来的增量资金，这些行业成为银行增量资金的 新去向。 主要机构投资者持仓占比未显著上升，但自然人和一般机构占比下降， 表明私募、券商等其他类型投资者参与抢筹，整体估值上行仍受增量资 金支撑。 股性策略表现最强，基因增配策略如电子医药军工中小盘标的也表现良 好，而高 YT 和基因低配策略表现较弱。配置集中在热门方向反内卷及 弹性中小盘转债。 股性转债溢价率相对平衡转债较低，仍有上升空间。双高转债数量处于 相对低位，股票市场预期尚未达到极值，股性转债具有超额收益潜力。 绝对收益投资者关注基因低配置和低拥挤度指标筛选冷门转债，以及高 a 天策略和双低策略，例如关注 80 评价以下、溢价率较低的标的。 推荐化工类平衡转债如杭氧、丰二、一阳、丰天业，以及中小盘正股相 关标的如科顺海顺、启帆天能。关注银行类兴业浦发重银以及钢 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Cambrian, a leading AI chip design company, has surged over 12%, reaching a peak of 966.8 yuan, with a market capitalization of 400.8 billion yuan, driven by significant improvements in its financial performance and favorable market conditions [1][5]. Financial Performance - Cambrian achieved its first-ever quarterly profit in Q4 2024, with revenue of approximately 989 million yuan and a net profit of 272 million yuan, marking a significant turnaround from previous losses [5][6]. - In Q1 2025, the company continued its growth trajectory, reporting revenue of 1.111 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4230.22%, and a net profit of 355 million yuan [5][6]. Market Dynamics - The shift towards domestic AI chip alternatives has accelerated due to concerns over the safety of foreign chips, benefiting Cambrian as a leading domestic player [7]. - Recent restrictions on high-performance AI chip exports from the U.S. have created a favorable environment for domestic manufacturers, with Cambrian positioned to capitalize on this trend [7]. Stock Performance - Cambrian's stock has seen a cumulative increase of 1608% since its low of 46 yuan in April 2022, reflecting strong market interest and investor confidence [4]. - The stock's recent surge is attributed to improved fundamentals and market speculation regarding future product launches and revenue potential [5][7]. Future Outlook - Analysts project Cambrian's revenue to grow significantly over the next few years, with estimates of 7.53 billion yuan, 13.46 billion yuan, and 20.56 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, alongside corresponding net profits [10]. - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its upward trajectory, with AI being a major growth driver, suggesting a positive long-term outlook for Cambrian [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the expansion of global AI demand and the capital expenditure on computing power by North American cloud - computing giants, the domestic computing hardware supply chain is expected to continue its high - growth trend. Domestic large - models are predicted to iterate rapidly in the second half of the year, and the AIDC scale is expected to further expand. The pan - AI sector is a relatively scarce high - growth area, and investment opportunities in this sector are recommended to be focused on in Q3 [1][10]. - Currently, convertible bond valuations are at a relatively high historical level due to the continuous inflow of fixed - income funds and the recovery of stock market expectations. The idea of achieving excess returns in the high - valuation range is to bet on the elasticity of the underlying stocks of convertible bonds. When the capital situation of convertible bonds is stable and the stock market expectations do not change significantly, the valuation of the convertible bond market is unlikely to shrink actively. Buying convertible bonds corresponding to high - elasticity underlying stocks (such as those in the AI sector) at a high - risk preference position can easily generate excess returns during an upward wave [1][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Overall Logic and Layout Ideas - The domestic computing hardware supply chain is expected to maintain high growth due to global AI demand expansion and North American cloud - computing giants' capital expenditure on computing power. Domestic large - models will iterate quickly in the second half, and AIDC will expand. The pan - AI sector is a high - growth area, and Q3 investment opportunities are recommended [1][10]. - For convertible bond investment, with high valuations, the strategy is to invest in convertible bonds of high - elasticity underlying stocks to gain excess returns in an upward market [1][10]. 3.2 Individual Bond Selection 3.2.1 Unex Electronics/Unex Convertible Bond - Unex is a global leader in electronic design and manufacturing services, leading in the SiP module field. It has 30 manufacturing service sites across four continents, providing comprehensive services to global brand customers [16]. - In 2024, its revenue was 60.691 billion yuan, almost flat year - on - year. Cloud and storage product revenue increased by 13.35% due to AI - driven server demand [16]. - In 2025, it aims to accelerate business in AI accelerator cards. It is also developing power modules and motherboards for AI servers. It participates in providing Wi - Fi SiP modules for a North American AI glasses customer's third - generation product and has obtained an order for N - in - one motherboard modules, expected to bring significant revenue in 2026 [2][22][24]. 3.2.2 Huamao Technology/Huamao Convertible Bond - Huamao is a leader in the automotive passive safety field, with products covering airbags, seat belts, etc. In 2024, it released an action plan, strengthening its automotive parts business and entering the semiconductor and computing manufacturing fields [25]. - In 2024, its revenue was 2.213 billion yuan, up 7.67% year - on - year. Net profit was 277 million yuan, up 14.64%. It plans to expand in the semiconductor and computing manufacturing sectors by increasing investment and integrating the supply chain of Fuchuang Youyue [25][30]. - Fuchuang Youyue provides one - stop electronic manufacturing services, especially in high - speed optical module manufacturing for global computing industry chains. It has shipped to 7 of the top 20 global optical module manufacturers in 2024, with over 3.5 million 800G optical module PCBA shipments [31][32]. 3.2.3 Bowei Alloy/Bo 23 Convertible Bond - Bowei's main businesses are new materials and international new energy. Its new materials are high - performance non - ferrous alloy products, widely used in AI, 6G, etc. In 2024, its alloy strip business sales increased by 42.23% and net profit increased by 171.12% [33]. - Its high - speed connector, shielding, and lead - frame materials are crucial for computing servers and data centers. Products like boway19920 and boway70318 meet the requirements of high - computing servers [35]. 3.2.4 Sangfor Technologies/Sangfor Convertible Bond - Sangfor focuses on enterprise - level network security, cloud computing, and IT infrastructure. Its network security business uses cloud security and AI for active monitoring and protection [36]. - It has been developing cloud computing since 2012, launching multiple products. In 2024, it released the AICP platform for large - model development, aiming to lower the threshold of using AI technology [37]. 3.2.5 Minglida/Mingli Convertible Bond - Minglida's products are mainly used in photovoltaic, energy storage, new - energy vehicles, and security. In 2024, its sales declined due to the inventory reduction in the photovoltaic and energy - storage industries. However, demand is recovering in 2025 [39]. - It has made breakthroughs in the new - energy vehicle business with leading global customers. It plans to expand in the robot and liquid - cooling industries and expects increased revenue from server and automotive liquid - cooling [39][43][44].

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between SK Hynix and Intel on HBM4 memory supply signifies Intel's entry into the AI accelerator market, highlighting the critical role of memory performance in AI system efficiency as demand for computing power surges [1][4]. Group 1: HBM4 Memory Technology - HBM4 memory, with a 2048-bit interface, offers over 1.5 times the bandwidth of its predecessor, addressing the data transfer bottleneck in AI chip performance [2]. - The integration of HBM4 in AI accelerators enhances image generation speed by approximately 40% compared to HBM3 and enables real-time data transmission of 30GB per second in autonomous driving applications [2]. - HBM4's physical layer optimization through CoWoS packaging technology significantly reduces memory latency, improving response times for AI chips processing sequential data [2]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The collaboration positions SK Hynix to validate HBM4's adaptability in complex AI scenarios while leveraging Intel's extensive server customer base for scalable production [4]. - The HBM market is becoming increasingly competitive, with Samsung and Micron also advancing their HBM4 technologies, potentially shortening the technology iteration cycle from two years to under one year [7]. - Intel's Jaguar Shores AI accelerator, enhanced by HBM4, aims to penetrate the customized AI server market, with initial agreements for deployment in collaboration with Microsoft Azure by 2026 [6]. Group 3: Challenges and Innovations - HBM4 faces challenges such as high heat density (150W/cm²) requiring innovative cooling solutions like immersion liquid cooling to enhance thermal management [8]. - The manufacturing cost of HBM4 is approximately 1.3 times that of HBM3E due to increased design complexity and larger wafer sizes, which could impact market adoption [8]. - Intel's success in the AI accelerator market will depend on optimizing software and cooling innovations to translate hardware performance into practical advantages [8][9]. Group 4: Future Implications - The collaboration between SK Hynix and Intel indicates a shift in AI hardware competition from solely technological advancements to a broader focus on ecosystem development and industry integration [9]. - The outcomes of this partnership will likely influence the AI chip market's dynamics over the next 2-3 years, affecting the technological pathways and development rhythms across the entire AI industry [9].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 13.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 330 million yuan, remaining stable compared to the same period last year [1] - The gross margin was about 9.4%, and the net margin was 2.4%, showing relative stability compared to the previous year [1] Group 2: Business Segment Performance - Revenue from the communications segment declined by 3.2% due to market competition and changes in customer products [1] - The consumer electronics segment saw a revenue increase of 16.3% due to pre-orders ahead of U.S. tariffs [1] - The automotive electronics segment experienced a revenue decline of 15.4%, while the industrial segment showed a recovery with a 3.5% increase [1] Group 3: Growth Opportunities - The demand for SiP in AI terminal applications is increasing, with smart glasses expected to open new growth opportunities [2] - The company has successfully partnered with leading smart glasses manufacturers, anticipating bulk shipments of Wi-Fi modules in 2025 [2] - The company is expanding its cloud storage business, with AI accelerator cards expected to start bulk shipments in 2024 [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.89 billion, 2.51 billion, and 3.25 billion yuan, respectively [3] - Given the company's leading technology in the SiP field and the growth potential in cloud storage, a target price of 17.2 yuan is set with a "buy" rating [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 16.00 RMB [7][4]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 revenue reached 13.649 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.16%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 335 million RMB, up 0.08% year-on-year. The operating profit margin was 2.9%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [1][2]. - The company expects a revenue decline of nearly 10% in Q2 2025, primarily due to seasonal factors and one-time costs related to capacity integration in Europe. Despite short-term challenges, the company is making positive strides in AI-related products, which are expected to contribute to future growth [1][3]. Business Segment Summary - **Communications Products**: Revenue of 4.49 billion RMB, down 3.2% year-on-year due to market competition and changes in customer products [2]. - **Consumer Electronics**: Revenue of 4.27 billion RMB, up 16.3% year-on-year, driven by customers placing orders in advance to mitigate tariff impacts [2]. - **Industrial Products**: Revenue of 1.76 billion RMB, up 3.5% year-on-year [2]. - **Cloud and Storage Products**: Revenue of 1.43 billion RMB, down 8.2% year-on-year due to customer value chain restructuring [2]. - **Automotive Electronics**: Revenue of 1.38 billion RMB, down 15.4% year-on-year, impacted by changes in the operating environment and strategy [2]. - **Medical Products**: Revenue of 90 million RMB, up 0.9% year-on-year [2]. Future Outlook - Short-term challenges are anticipated in communications and consumer electronics due to tariff policy disruptions and uncertain end-user demand. However, the long-term outlook remains positive, particularly for AI glasses and cloud storage products. The company plans to introduce new AI glasses and expects rapid growth in AI accelerator cards in 2025 [3][4].

Group 1: 泰恩康 (Tianenkang) - The company has completed the enrollment of 200 subjects for the Phase II clinical trial of CKB ointment, with results expected in July 2025 [1] - The registration application for the domestic production of Hewei Zhengchang Wan has been accepted, and the production line transformation is complete, aiming for approval within the year [1] - Minoxidil lotion has completed pre-listing preparations, with expected revenue recognition in Q2 of this year [1] - The company plans to submit multiple product approvals within the next year, including CKB and injectable paclitaxel polymer micelles [1] Group 2: 环旭电子 (Huanxu Electronics) - The domestic manufacturing ratio has decreased to 60%, with production shifting to Mexico, Poland, and Vietnam [2] - AI accelerator card business is expected to grow by 150%, with capacity expansion in Taiwan and Mexico [2] - The company is focusing on wearable products and SiP modules, with new product lines in Vietnam [2] - Annual capital expenditure (Capex) is projected to be over $200 million [2] Group 3: 艾力斯 (Ailis) - The company is advancing multiple key products, with Golai Resep tablets entering the comprehensive review stage and aiming for inclusion in annual medical insurance negotiations [3] - A new large molecule R&D department has been established, focusing on lung cancer, with plans for IND submission next year [3] - The company plans to continue expanding its marketing team and optimize resource allocation to ensure stable operations [3] - Cash dividends totaling 292.5 million yuan are planned for 2024, with an increase in mid-term dividends expected in the first half of 2025 [3] Group 4: 华阳集团 (Huayang Group) - The automotive electronics business has seen an expanding customer base, with a significant year-on-year increase in new orders [4] - The company has achieved larger display viewing angles for VPD products and is promoting them to multiple automakers [4] - Huayang Group is reducing geopolitical risks by establishing subsidiaries in Thailand and Mexico [4]