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广发证券:技术迭代驱动AIPCB需求激增 国产设备/耗材量价齐升
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-03 03:55
Group 1 - The global AI infrastructure is experiencing significant growth due to the expansion of AI applications, leading to a substantial increase in PCB demand [1] - The global server/data storage market is projected to reach $291 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 45.5%, and is expected to maintain a growth rate of 36.1% in 2025 [1] - The demand for AIPCB is driven by the increasing requirements for PCB layers in AI servers and high-end switches, with the PCB value for each AI server expected to be 5 to 7 times higher than that of traditional servers [1] Group 2 - Leading PCB companies are ramping up production, but actual capacity release is lagging behind demand growth due to high-end equipment delivery and key process verification challenges [2] - Domestic manufacturers are expected to capture market share more quickly than overseas competitors due to their faster expansion capabilities [2] Group 3 - The ongoing expansion of AIPCB is directly impacting PCB processing, leading to increased volume and more complex processing requirements, which in turn drives up both the quantity and price of equipment and materials [3] - The demand for key equipment and materials is anticipated to grow in tandem with the rising requirements for AIPCB [3] Group 4 - Domestic manufacturers are advancing in technology iteration and expansion, with a notable supply gap in high-end drilling equipment, while foreign suppliers are facing demand shortages [4] - Domestic suppliers are leading in expansion capabilities and are increasingly replacing foreign suppliers in the mid-to-low-end market [4] Group 5 - Investment recommendations include focusing on technology-leading suppliers such as Chipbond Technology and Dazhong CNC, as well as materials suppliers like Dingtai High-Tech and Zhongtung High-Tech due to the increasing demand for drilling tools [5] - Attention is also recommended for companies involved in the PCBA segment, such as Kaige Precision Machinery and Jintuo Co., Ltd [5]
开源证券晨会纪要-20250729
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-07-29 14:41
Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of Celestica, which raised its annual revenue guidance to $11.55 billion, up from the previous $10.85 billion, driven by robust demand from major clients [12][13] - The AI PCB industry is experiencing a significant expansion due to high demand for advanced AI servers, leading to increased capital expenditures and a tight supply chain for PCB equipment [16][17] - The antibiotic sector, particularly for the company Federated Pharmaceuticals, is stable with a growing market for diabetes and animal health products, projecting net profits of 2.839 billion, 2.452 billion, and 2.705 billion for 2025-2027 [29][30] Total Research - As of July 29, 2025, the 10-year government bond yield is at 1.75%, up 11 basis points from the June low of 1.64% [3] - Historical patterns indicate that bond yields can reverse in either a V-shape or W-shape, with the latter often leading to a more significant upward movement [4][5] - The report anticipates that the 10-year government bond yield could rise to a target range of 1.9% to 2.2% in the second half of 2025, driven by economic recovery and inflation normalization [10] Industry Analysis - The communication sector is seeing increased demand for light modules and liquid cooling solutions, as indicated by Celestica's performance [12] - The PCB industry is entering a phase of intensive expansion, with several manufacturers announcing new projects to meet the rising demand for high-end products [17][18] - AI's impact on PCB performance is pushing for upgrades in materials and manufacturing processes, with a focus on higher layer counts and advanced techniques [19][20] Company-Specific Insights - Celestica's second-quarter revenue reached $2.89 billion, a 21% year-over-year increase, with a notable 82% growth in its hardware platform solutions segment [12] - The company is benefiting from strong demand from its top clients, which account for a significant portion of its revenue [12] - The report emphasizes the potential for significant growth in the PCB equipment market due to ongoing expansions and technological upgrades [16][18]