证券研究报告 | 2025年08月27日 超威半导体(AMD)（AMD.O） 优于大市 全球高性能计算龙头，AI 需求赋能业绩增长 收入、利润快速增长，消费级处理器放量。2025H1 公司实现营业收入 151.23 亿美元，同比增长 33.74%，实现净利润 15.81 亿美元，同比增长 307.47%， 主要由 Ryzen 9000 系列需求旺盛，桌面渠道销量快速增长，带动出货量价 齐升以及微软、Meta、甲骨文等云厂商订单增长推动。分季度来看，2025Q2 公司实现营业收入 76.85 亿美元，同比增长 31.71%，实现净利润 8.72 亿美 元，同比增长 229.06%，主要由 EPYC CPU 收入增长以及在云服务和企业客户 市场占有率提升、锐龙处理器在商用与消费级市场放量推动。 数据中心为最大收入来源，客户端业务高速增长。2025H1，公司客户端业务 高速增长，实现收入 47.93 亿美元，同比增长 67.59%，主要得益于平均售价 增长 42%，以及 AMD Ryzen 移动和桌面处理器出货量增长 17%；实现数据中 心收入为 69.14 亿美元，同比增长 33.71%，主要由 AMD EPYC ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the acquisition of Xilinx by AMD, focusing on the developments and performance of Xilinx post-acquisition, particularly in the context of AI, data centers, and FPGA technology. Group 1: Acquisition Rationale - AMD's acquisition of Xilinx for $49 billion was primarily aimed at enhancing capabilities in AI, data centers, and edge computing, rather than traditional markets like 5G and automotive [2][4]. - Xilinx's FPGA and AI engine technologies complement AMD's CPU and GPU offerings, providing efficient solutions for data-intensive applications [2]. Group 2: Historical Context - The article references Intel's acquisition of Altera, which was influenced by Microsoft's promotion of FPGA in data centers, ultimately leading to Intel's underperformance in the FPGA market [3]. - Despite initial expectations, the use of FPGA in data centers did not meet Microsoft's needs, leading to a preference for NVIDIA GPUs for AI model training [3]. Group 3: Post-Acquisition Developments - AMD established the Adaptive and Embedded Computing Group (AECG) to focus on FPGA and SoC roadmaps, led by former Xilinx CEO Victor Peng [4]. - Xilinx's product updates post-acquisition have been moderate, with expectations for stable growth in the FPGA market rather than significant breakthroughs [8][11]. Group 4: Financial Performance - Xilinx's revenue for the fiscal year 2021 was $3.15 billion, showing stability despite global supply chain challenges [11]. - The Embedded business segment revenue for AMD in 2022 was approximately $4.53 billion, reflecting a 17% increase in 2023 to $5.3 billion, attributed to the integration of Xilinx's revenue [17][18]. - However, the Embedded segment revenue is projected to decline to $3.6 billion in 2024, a 33% decrease from 2023, influenced by market demand and U.S. export restrictions [19][22]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The article concludes that three years post-acquisition, there have been no groundbreaking products from the integration, and the FPGA market remains stable [22]. - AMD's data center business saw significant growth, reaching $12.6 billion in 2024, a 94% increase, but the specific contribution of FPGA technology remains unclear [22].

Core Insights - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is experiencing strong demand for its Graphics Processing Units (GPUs), primarily due to the rising adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning techniques [1] - In Q1 2025, AMD's Data Center revenues increased by 57.2% year over year to $3.674 billion, making up 49.4% of total revenues, driven by sales of AMD EPYC CPUs and AMD Instinct GPUs [1][9] - AMD has launched its comprehensive AI platform, including the new Instinct MI350 Series GPUs, which offer 4x generational AI compute gains [2] - AMD has enhanced support for frontier AI models on Instinct GPUs with ROCm software, providing day-zero support for the latest Meta AI Llama 4 and Google Gemma 3 models [3] Competitive Landscape - AMD faces significant competition in the GPU market from NVIDIA and Intel [4] - NVIDIA's Data Center revenues surged by 73.3% year over year to $39.1 billion in Q1 2026, driven by the demand for generative AI and large language models [5] - Intel is expanding its GPU market presence with new Arc Pro B-series GPUs aimed at AI inference and demanding workloads [6] Stock Performance and Valuation - AMD shares have increased by 18.9% year to date, outperforming the broader Zacks Computer & Technology sector's return of 4.4%, but underperforming the Zacks Computer - Integrated Systems industry's increase of 28.1% [7] - AMD is trading at a premium with a forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio of 6.78X compared to the industry's 3.92X, and it has a Value Score of F [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q2 2025 earnings is 54 cents per share, indicating an 8.4% decline over the past 30 days and a 21.74% decrease year over year [12]

Core Viewpoint - AMD has shown significant growth in revenue and market share, particularly in the data center and AI sectors, driven by strong demand for its EPYC CPUs and Instinct GPUs [1][3][5]. Financial Performance - In the first quarter, AMD reported revenue of $7.4 billion, a 36% year-over-year increase, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of accelerating revenue growth [1]. - The data center segment generated $3.7 billion in revenue, up 57% year-over-year, largely due to increased sales of EPYC CPUs and Instinct GPUs [1]. - Customer revenue reached a record $2.3 billion, reflecting a 68% year-over-year growth, driven by strong demand for the latest "Zen 5" AMD Ryzen processors [1]. Market Share and AI Outlook - AMD's market share in server CPUs rose from 2% in 2018 to 40% in the first quarter of this year, indicating a strong presence in the market [3]. - AMD's CEO, Lisa Su, projected that the data center AI accelerator market could exceed $500 billion by 2028, with particularly rapid growth in AI inference demand [3]. AI Strategy and Acquisitions - AMD has made several strategic acquisitions to enhance its AI capabilities, including Mipsology, Nod.ai, Silo AI, ZT Systems, Enosemi, Brium, Untether AI, and Lamini [5][10]. - The company has developed a comprehensive AI stack, leveraging its CPU and GPU expertise along with its acquisitions to strengthen its position in the AI market [5][10]. Product Development and Innovations - AMD introduced the MI350X and MI355X AI GPUs, which offer up to 4 times the performance compared to the previous generation and 35 times faster inference speeds [13][16]. - The new GPUs utilize a 3nm process and feature up to 288GB of HBM3E memory and 8TB/s memory bandwidth, significantly outperforming competitors [15][16]. - AMD's upcoming MI400 series, set to launch in 2026, will double the performance of the MI355X and support HBM4 memory, enhancing memory capacity and bandwidth [30][35]. Ecosystem and Software Development - AMD has established an open-source ecosystem, including the ROCm software stack, which has been widely adopted by industry leaders like OpenAI, Microsoft, and Meta [9][43]. - The latest ROCm 7 version focuses on improving inference performance by up to 3.5 times compared to its predecessor, ROCm 6 [43]. Networking and Scalability - AMD's acquisition of Pensando has bolstered its networking capabilities, allowing for enhanced system scalability [37]. - The company is introducing the Pollara 400 AI NIC, which integrates UltraEthernet technology to optimize high-speed network reliability and scalability [37][39].

Core Viewpoint - AMD has shown significant growth in revenue and market share, particularly in the data center and AI sectors, driven by strong demand for its latest products and strategic acquisitions [1][3][4]. Financial Performance - In the first quarter, AMD reported revenue of $7.4 billion, a 36% year-over-year increase, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of accelerating revenue growth [1]. - The data center segment generated $3.7 billion in revenue, up 57% year-over-year, largely due to increased sales of AMD EPYC CPUs and AMD Instinct GPUs [1]. - Customer revenue reached a record $2.3 billion, reflecting a 68% year-over-year growth, driven by strong demand for the new "Zen 5" AMD Ryzen processors [1]. Market Share and AI Outlook - AMD's market share in server CPUs rose from 2% in 2018 to 40% in the first quarter of this year, indicating a strong competitive position [3]. - AMD's CEO, Lisa Su, projected that the data center AI accelerator market could exceed $500 billion by 2028, with particularly rapid growth in AI inference demand [4]. Strategic Acquisitions - AMD has made several strategic acquisitions to bolster its AI capabilities, including Mipsology, Nod.ai, Silo AI, and ZT Systems, enhancing its position in the AI ecosystem [7][8]. - Recent acquisitions include Enosemi, Brium, Untether AI, and Lamini, aimed at improving AMD's AI capabilities, especially in the data center market [8]. AI Market Strategy - AMD has developed a diverse computing foundation for the AI market and is promoting an open-source ecosystem to foster collaboration and innovation [10]. - The ROCm software stack has been widely adopted by industry leaders like OpenAI, Microsoft, and Meta, enhancing AMD's AI deployment capabilities [10][11]. Product Innovations - AMD introduced the MI350 series GPUs, which offer up to 4 times the performance compared to the previous generation and 35 times faster inference speeds [13][15]. - The MI350X and MI355X GPUs feature 288 GB of HBM3E memory and 8 TB/s memory bandwidth, significantly outperforming competitors [15][19]. - AMD's next-generation MI400 series, set to launch in 2026, will double the performance of the MI355X and increase memory capacity to 432 GB [31][32]. Future Developments - AMD's upcoming EPYC "Venice" processors will utilize TSMC's 2nm process and feature up to 256 cores, promising a performance increase of up to 70% over the current generation [37][38]. - The Helios AI rack, powered by the MI400 series, aims to achieve exaflop-level performance, positioning AMD competitively against Nvidia's upcoming platforms [34][36].

Core Viewpoint - AMD is advancing towards a more specialized CPU design strategy, planning to offer multiple versions of the same architecture to meet diverse performance and efficiency needs, starting with the Zen 7 series [1][2]. Summary by Sections Zen 7 Architecture - AMD plans to introduce at least four different versions of the Zen 7 architecture, targeting high-performance desktops, servers, low-power laptops, and handheld devices [1]. - The architecture will include classic Zen 7 for high performance, dense Zen 7c for high core count servers, low-power Zen 7 for efficiency, and efficient Zen 7 focusing on IPC [1][2]. Core and Cache Specifications - Each Zen 7 core is expected to feature 2MB of L2 cache, double that of Zen 5, and up to 7MB of stacked L3 3D V-Cache, manufactured using TSMC's 4nm process [3][5]. - The Zen 7 architecture is anticipated to improve IPC performance by 15% to 25% compared to Zen 6, with an initial target of over 20% [3][6]. Manufacturing and Technology - AMD is reportedly utilizing TSMC's 1.4nm technology for Zen 7 core chips, which would represent cutting-edge technology at the time of release [4]. - The design includes a new type of pure 3D core with extensive cache, which is expected to significantly enhance performance as core counts increase [4][5]. Release Timeline - Zen 7 is projected to begin tape-out by the end of 2026, with an official release expected in late 2027 or early 2028 [3][6].

Core Viewpoint - AMD's Q1 2025 financial performance shows strong revenue growth driven by data center and client segments, despite challenges in the embedded sector and new export regulations impacting margins [1][3][24]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached $7.4 billion, a 36% year-over-year increase, but a 3% decline quarter-over-quarter, with a gross margin of 54% [1][19]. - Operating income was $1.8 billion, with an operating margin of 24%, and diluted EPS was $0.96, reflecting a 55% year-over-year increase [19][24]. Segment Performance Data Center - Data center revenue was $3.7 billion, up 57% year-over-year but down 5% quarter-over-quarter, driven by strong sales of AMD Instinct GPUs and EPYC CPUs [2][20]. - The segment's operating income was $932 million, accounting for 25% of total revenue, indicating a significant market share increase [20]. Client and Gaming - Client and gaming revenue totaled $2.9 billion, a 28% year-over-year increase, with client revenue at $2.3 billion, up 68% year-over-year [2][20]. - The strong demand for the latest Zen 5 architecture and high-end Ryzen processors contributed to this growth, although gaming revenue declined by 30% due to a drop in semi-custom product sales [2][14]. Embedded - Embedded revenue was $823 million, down 3% year-over-year and 11% quarter-over-quarter, with slow recovery in terminal market demand [2][17]. Guidance and Future Outlook - For Q2 2025, AMD expects revenue between $7.1 billion and $7.7 billion, with a midpoint representing a 27% year-over-year increase, but gross margin is projected to decline to 43% due to new export regulations [3][23]. - The company anticipates a strong rebound in data center GPU sales in the second half of 2025, driven by the launch of the MI355 series [3][29]. Strategic Developments - AMD has completed the acquisition of ZT Systems, enhancing its capabilities in AI and data center solutions [11][24]. - The company plans to accelerate the production of the next-generation EPYC processors and MI400 series, with significant customer interest in the MI350 series [3][12][13]. Market Trends - The demand for AI infrastructure is expected to grow, with AMD's products positioned to capitalize on this trend, particularly in the data center and embedded markets [24][34]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its product mix and expanding its market share in the client segment, particularly in high-end desktop and commercial PCs [14][15].

Financial Performance - AMD reported a record first quarter revenue of $74 billion, a 36% year-over-year increase[17] - GAAP gross margin was 50%, up from 47% in Q1 2024[21] - Non-GAAP gross margin was 54%, up from 52% in Q1 2024[21] - GAAP operating income increased significantly to $806 million, compared to $36 million in Q1 2024[24] - Non-GAAP operating income increased 57% year-over-year to $1779 billion[30] - GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) was $044, up from $007 in Q1 2024[27] - Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $096, a 55% increase year-over-year[27] Segment Results - Data Center segment revenue increased 57% year-over-year to $37 billion, with an operating income of $932 million[31, 35] - Client and Gaming segment revenue increased 28% year-over-year to $29 billion, with an operating income of $496 million[31, 36] - Embedded segment revenue decreased 3% year-over-year to $823 million, with an operating income of $328 million[31, 37] Acquisition and Outlook - AMD completed the acquisition of ZT Systems on March 31, 2025[16, 34] - The company expects Q2 2025 revenue to be approximately $74 billion, plus or minus $300 million[38]