本周全球主要大类资产涨跌互现。深证成指（+4.57%）涨幅最大，上证 指数（+3.49%），CBOT豆油（+2.95%），IPE布油（+2.51%）涨幅居前；新西 兰元兑人民币（-1.92%）跌幅最大，韩国综指（-1.76%），日经225（- 1.72%），澳元兑人民币（-1.19%）跌幅居前。 华福证券 策略定期研究 2025 年 8 月 25 日 海外市场周观察（0818-0824） 鲍威尔在全球央行年会定调宽松预期 本周美股整体先抑后扬，周五美股受鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会转鸽信号 驱动大幅走高。周初市场因对经济数据和美联储政策的不确定性而表现反 复，周五鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议转鸽，其表示尽管通胀仍受关注，但就业 市场风险上升可能使美联储在9月降息，会后市场几乎完全定价9月降息，并 且年内将降息两次，美债收益率与美元指数回落，美股大幅反弹，道指攀升 至年内新高。下周需重点关注7月核心PCE通胀数据，若低于预期，美股降息 交易或将延续。 经济数据方面：（1）美国至8月16日当周初请失业金人数为23.5万人， 略高于前值和预测值；（2）美国8月标普全球制造业PMI初值为53.3，高于 前值49.8和预测值49. ...

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index increased by 1.33%, reaching 28.8288 points, showing an upward trend throughout the day [1] - CBOT corn futures rose by 1.43%, priced at $4.07 per bushel [1] - CBOT wheat futures increased by 1.70%, priced at $5.1825 per bushel [1] - CBOT soybean futures gained 0.96%, priced at $9.9450 per bushel, while soybean meal futures rose by 1.47% and soybean oil futures decreased by 0.29% [1]

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index increased by 0.16%, reaching 29.5845 points, with a peak of 29.8546 points earlier in the day [1] - CBOT corn futures rose by 1.52%, closing at $4.1850 per bushel, after hitting a low of $4.0750 [1] - CBOT wheat futures fell by 0.55%, settling at $5.42 per bushel, moving away from a daily high of $5.5150 [1] Group 2 - CBOT soybean futures remained relatively stable, closing at $10.0725 per bushel, after dropping to a low of $9.9825 and later reaching a high of $10.1450 [1] - Soybean meal futures decreased by 0.74%, while soybean oil futures increased by 0.71% [1]

Group 1 - The report highlights a divergence in the Federal Reserve's internal policy views, with an expectation of two rate cuts this year, although the number of officials not anticipating a cut has risen to seven [2][8][10] - The upcoming PCE data is crucial, with market expectations for core PCE to rise to 2.6% from the previous 2.5%, which could influence future rate cut timing [2][8][10] Group 2 - In the U.S. economic data, May industrial production decreased by 0.20%, below both the previous and expected values of 0.10% [3][9] - The initial jobless claims for the week ending June 14 were 245,000, aligning with expectations and lower than the previous 250,000 [3][9] - New housing starts in May were annualized at 1.256 million units, below the previous 1.392 million and the expected 1.357 million [3][9] Group 3 - Global major asset classes showed mixed performance, with CBOT soybean oil rising by 7.49%, while CBOT corn fell by 3.54% [26][42] - The Korean Composite Stock Price Index had the highest gain at 4.40%, while the Hang Seng Index saw the largest decline at 1.52% [29][35] Group 4 - The report notes that the U.S. labor market remains resilient, with multiple indicators suggesting the economy is close to maximum employment levels [10][17] - The report also indicates that the economic growth rate is estimated to be between 1.5% and 2% [10][17] Group 5 - The report tracks significant economic data updates, including a rebound in the Eurozone economic sentiment index and a decline in the UK consumer confidence index [52][62] - Japan's CPI showed a month-on-month decrease, indicating potential deflationary pressures [71][73]

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index decreased by 0.90% to 31.5674 points on Friday, June 20, with a cumulative increase of 0.55% over the week (four trading days) [1] - CBOT corn futures fell by 0.45% to $4.42 per bushel, with a cumulative decline of 0.23% for the week [1] Group 2 - CBOT wheat futures dropped by 1.31% to $5.8275 per bushel, but showed a cumulative increase of 4.20% for the week [2] - CBOT soybean futures decreased by 0.73% to $10.6050 per bushel, with a cumulative increase of 0.55% for the week; soybean meal futures fell by 1.62%, while soybean oil futures rose by 7.52% [2]

Core Insights - The Bloomberg Grain Index has increased by 2.61% this week, closing at 31.4047 points on Friday, May 23, with a continuous rise from May 20 to 21 and slight fluctuations at high levels on May 22 to 23 [1] Summary by Category Corn Market - CBOT corn futures have risen by 3.49%, reaching $4.59 per bushel, with a consistent increase from May 19 to 22 and a slight decline on May 23 [1] Wheat Market - CBOT wheat futures have increased by 3.52%, closing at $5.4350 per bushel, with gains observed on May 20 to 21 and a minor retreat on May 22 to 23 [1] Soybean Market - CBOT soybean futures have seen a rise of 1.02%, closing at $10.6075 per bushel, while soybean meal futures increased by 1.44% and soybean oil futures rose by 0.59% [1]