2025 年十一假期期货市场品种解读 2025 年 10 月 8 日 | | 研究员： | 赵丹琪（执业编号：F3039881 | 投资咨询资格编号：Z0014940） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 邮件：zhaodq1@cjfco.com.cn | 公司地址：http://www.cjfco.com.cn | 微信公众号：ChangjiangFutures | | | 板块 | 品种 | 9 月 30 日下午 3:00 价格 | 10 月 7 日下午 3:00 价格 | 涨跌幅 | | | 纳斯达克 | 22,660.01 | 22,941.67 | 1.24% | | | 标准普尔 | 6,688.46 | 6,740.28 | 0.77% | | 宏观 | 道琼斯工业 | 46,397.89 | 46,694.97 | 0.64% | | | 恒生指数 | 26,855.56 | 26957.77 | 0.38% | | | 美元指数 | 97.80 | 98.1175 | 0.33% | | 贵金属 | COMEX 白银 | 46.97 | 48.33 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Powell's dovish signal at the Jackson Hole meeting has led to a significant rebound in US stocks, with the market almost fully pricing in a rate cut in September and two cuts within the year [1][7][8] - Key economic data includes initial jobless claims at 235,000, slightly above previous and forecast values, and the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August at 53.3, exceeding both previous and forecast values [1][7][8] - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming July core PCE inflation data, suggesting that if it comes in below expectations, the trend of rate cut trading in the stock market may continue [1][7] Group 2 - The report tracks the performance of major global asset classes, noting that the Shenzhen Composite Index had the highest increase at +4.57%, while the New Zealand dollar saw the largest decline at -1.92% against the RMB [2][23] - In the equity market, the materials sector in the US saw the largest gain at +5.01%, while the healthcare sector experienced the largest decline at -0.37% [2][33] - The report also indicates that the energy sector in Japan had a significant increase of +18.44%, while the information technology sector faced a decline of -7.54% [2][33] Group 3 - The report provides updates on important global economic data, including a rebound in the Eurozone consumer confidence index and an increase in the UK services PMI [50][60][62] - The Japanese composite PMI also showed an upward trend, indicating a positive outlook for the Japanese economy [62][63] - The report emphasizes the significance of these economic indicators in assessing the overall health of the global economy [50][60][62]

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index increased by 1.33%, reaching 28.8288 points, showing an upward trend throughout the day [1] - CBOT corn futures rose by 1.43%, priced at $4.07 per bushel [1] - CBOT wheat futures increased by 1.70%, priced at $5.1825 per bushel [1] - CBOT soybean futures gained 0.96%, priced at $9.9450 per bushel, while soybean meal futures rose by 1.47% and soybean oil futures decreased by 0.29% [1]

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index increased by 0.16%, reaching 29.5845 points, with a peak of 29.8546 points earlier in the day [1] - CBOT corn futures rose by 1.52%, closing at $4.1850 per bushel, after hitting a low of $4.0750 [1] - CBOT wheat futures fell by 0.55%, settling at $5.42 per bushel, moving away from a daily high of $5.5150 [1] Group 2 - CBOT soybean futures remained relatively stable, closing at $10.0725 per bushel, after dropping to a low of $9.9825 and later reaching a high of $10.1450 [1] - Soybean meal futures decreased by 0.74%, while soybean oil futures increased by 0.71% [1]

Group 1 - The report highlights a divergence in the Federal Reserve's internal policy views, with an expectation of two rate cuts this year, although the number of officials not anticipating a cut has risen to seven [2][8][10] - The upcoming PCE data is crucial, with market expectations for core PCE to rise to 2.6% from the previous 2.5%, which could influence future rate cut timing [2][8][10] Group 2 - In the U.S. economic data, May industrial production decreased by 0.20%, below both the previous and expected values of 0.10% [3][9] - The initial jobless claims for the week ending June 14 were 245,000, aligning with expectations and lower than the previous 250,000 [3][9] - New housing starts in May were annualized at 1.256 million units, below the previous 1.392 million and the expected 1.357 million [3][9] Group 3 - Global major asset classes showed mixed performance, with CBOT soybean oil rising by 7.49%, while CBOT corn fell by 3.54% [26][42] - The Korean Composite Stock Price Index had the highest gain at 4.40%, while the Hang Seng Index saw the largest decline at 1.52% [29][35] Group 4 - The report notes that the U.S. labor market remains resilient, with multiple indicators suggesting the economy is close to maximum employment levels [10][17] - The report also indicates that the economic growth rate is estimated to be between 1.5% and 2% [10][17] Group 5 - The report tracks significant economic data updates, including a rebound in the Eurozone economic sentiment index and a decline in the UK consumer confidence index [52][62] - Japan's CPI showed a month-on-month decrease, indicating potential deflationary pressures [71][73]

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index decreased by 0.90% to 31.5674 points on Friday, June 20, with a cumulative increase of 0.55% over the week (four trading days) [1] - CBOT corn futures fell by 0.45% to $4.42 per bushel, with a cumulative decline of 0.23% for the week [1] Group 2 - CBOT wheat futures dropped by 1.31% to $5.8275 per bushel, but showed a cumulative increase of 4.20% for the week [2] - CBOT soybean futures decreased by 0.73% to $10.6050 per bushel, with a cumulative increase of 0.55% for the week; soybean meal futures fell by 1.62%, while soybean oil futures rose by 7.52% [2]

Core Insights - The Bloomberg Grain Index has increased by 2.61% this week, closing at 31.4047 points on Friday, May 23, with a continuous rise from May 20 to 21 and slight fluctuations at high levels on May 22 to 23 [1] Summary by Category Corn Market - CBOT corn futures have risen by 3.49%, reaching $4.59 per bushel, with a consistent increase from May 19 to 22 and a slight decline on May 23 [1] Wheat Market - CBOT wheat futures have increased by 3.52%, closing at $5.4350 per bushel, with gains observed on May 20 to 21 and a minor retreat on May 22 to 23 [1] Soybean Market - CBOT soybean futures have seen a rise of 1.02%, closing at $10.6075 per bushel, while soybean meal futures increased by 1.44% and soybean oil futures rose by 0.59% [1]