每经AI快讯，周一（11月24日）纽约尾盘，彭博谷物分类指数跌0.35%，报30.0277点。CBOT玉米期货 跌0.06%，报4.3725美元/蒲式耳。CBOT小麦期货跌1.06%，报5.35美元/蒲式耳。CBOT大豆期货跌 0.38%，报11.2125美元/蒲式耳，豆粕期货跌0.50%，豆油期货跌0.24%。CBOT瘦肉猪期货涨1.83%。 ...

Core Insights - CBOT corn futures decreased by 0.47% to $4.2675 per bushel, with a cumulative decline of 1.10% for the week [1] - CBOT wheat futures fell by 1.59% to $5.27 per bushel, resulting in a weekly drop of 1.17% [1] - CBOT soybean futures increased by 0.95% to $11.1725 per bushel, with a slight weekly gain of 0.27% [1] - Soymeal futures rose by 1.38%, but experienced a cumulative weekly decline of 1.46% [1] - Soy oil futures increased by 0.57%, achieving a weekly gain of 1.95% [1] - CBOT lean hog futures saw a cumulative decline of 2.03% [1] - Live cattle futures dropped by 3.71% cumulatively [1] - Feeder cattle futures experienced a cumulative decline of 3.65% [1]

Core Insights - The Bloomberg Grain Index declined by 2.37%, closing at 30.2363 points, with a notable drop after the market opened [1] - CBOT corn futures fell by 1.49%, settling at $4.2875 per bushel [1] - CBOT wheat futures experienced a significant decrease of 3.38%, closing at $5.36 per bushel [1] - CBOT soybean futures dropped by 2.31%, ending at $11.08 per bushel, while soybean meal futures fell by 3.69% and soybean oil futures decreased by 0.85% [1] - CBOT lean hog futures declined by 1.92%, live cattle futures fell by 0.78%, and feeder cattle futures decreased by 1.32% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Futures market conditions during the 2025 National Day holiday varied across different sectors. Some commodities showed price increases due to factors like supply disruptions, geopolitical events, and market sentiment, while others faced downward pressure from factors such as supply - demand imbalances and macroeconomic uncertainties [2][4][9] - Different commodities have different risk levels and corresponding operation strategies based on their specific fundamentals, including factors like supply, demand, inventory, and policy expectations [4][5][6] Summary by Category Financial Futures Index Futures - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: The US government shutdown, delayed non - farm data, and changes in global political situations affected the market. Domestic holiday travel and movie consumption showed certain trends [4] - **Operation Strategy**: Focus on IF, IC, IM boosted by the 14th Five - Year Plan [4] Treasury Bonds - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: The 10 - year treasury bond rate oscillated around 1.8%, with limited capital gain space. Short - end coupon strategies were relatively stable, but there were risks of increased capital fluctuations in the fourth quarter [5] - **Operation Strategy**: Control duration, prioritize dumbbell - shaped allocation, defend at the short - end, and wait for higher odds for long - end trading [5] Precious Metals Gold - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Delayed non - farm data, lower - than - expected ADP employment data, and the US government shutdown risk drove up the risk - aversion sentiment. There were differences in the market's expectation of the year - end interest rate cut, and the US economic data showed a downward trend [6] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold existing long positions and build new long positions on dips after the holiday [6] Silver - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Similar to gold, and there was still room for the gold - silver ratio to repair during the interest rate cut process [7][8] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold existing long positions, and be cautious about opening new positions [8] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Risk Level**: ★★★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply was affected by mine accidents and domestic smelter overhauls. Terminal consumption was weak but had potential for improvement. Inventories were at a low level, and domestic policies might be strengthened [9] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions on dips [9] Aluminum - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and there was room for domestic LPR adjustment. Alumina supply was generally loose, while electrolytic aluminum supply was stable with limited growth. Demand entered the peak season, and inventory decreased [11] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [12] Nickel - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Indonesia adjusted the RKAB cycle, which brought uncertainty to the nickel ore supply. Nickel remained in an oversupply situation, and the downstream stainless - steel market was weak [13] - **Operation Strategy**: Observe or hold short positions moderately on rallies [13] Tin - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply was tightened due to the closure of illegal tin mines in Indonesia. The semiconductor industry was recovering, and inventories were decreasing [15] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions moderately on dips [14][15] Black Building Materials Steel - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: During the holiday, steel billet prices were stable, and iron ore futures rose slightly. The current situation was weak in the industry but strong in the macro - aspect, and attention should be paid to the inventory increase after the holiday [16] - **Operation Strategy**: Observe or conduct short - term trading, and pay attention to the support around 3000 for RB2601 [16] Iron Ore - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills' profitability was at a relatively high level, and short - term negative feedback was unlikely. The key was whether steel demand could support the high iron - making water output [18] - **Operation Strategy**: Observe or conduct short - term trading [18] Glass - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Market sentiment was boosted by news and price increases of some manufacturers. Supply was stable, demand was in the peak season, and inventories were decreasing [20] - **Operation Strategy**: Maintain the long strategy for the 01 contract, hold existing long positions, and open new long positions on dips, paying attention to the support at 1160 - 1200 [22] Coking Coal and Coke - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Some coal mines in Shanxi had short - term production suspensions, and Mongolian coal imports were expected to increase after the holiday. The first round of coke price increase was implemented, but the second round failed [23] - **Operation Strategy**: Wait and pay attention to the new round of industrial inventory transfer after the holiday [23] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical disturbances did not have a substantial impact on supply. The "supply increase and demand decrease" situation persisted, and prices were under pressure during the holiday [25] - **Operation Strategy**: Consider the market as weak and oscillating [25] PVC - **Risk Level**: ★ - **Fundamentals**: Cost was at a low - profit level, supply was high, and demand was affected by the real - estate market and export policies [27] - **Operation Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the text Caustic Soda - **Risk Level**: ★ - **Fundamentals**: Focus on post - holiday inventory accumulation. Supply was affected by upstream inventory and liquid chlorine, and demand was increasing marginally [28] - **Operation Strategy**: Consider the market as oscillating, and pay attention to the range of 2450 - 2650 for the 01 contract [28] Urea - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, agricultural demand was scattered, and inventory was accumulating. The supply - demand pattern of compound fertilizers improved slightly [31] - **Operation Strategy**: Observe the support at 1600 - 1630 for the 01 contract and the positive arbitrage opportunity after the 1 - 5 spread weakens further [31] Methanol - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, the demand of the main downstream (methanol - to - olefins) was strong, and inventories were decreasing [33] - **Operation Strategy**: Conduct range trading, and pay attention to the range of 2330 - 2450 for the 01 contract [33] Soda Ash - **Risk Level**: ★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply was abundant, downstream demand was weak, and upstream faced inventory accumulation pressure after the holiday [35] - **Operation Strategy**: Without policy support, the market may weaken PTA - **Risk Level**: ★★★ - **Fundamentals**: The market changed little during the holiday. After - holiday maintenance of some devices and slow recovery of downstream weaving affected the inventory situation. Cost - end oil prices declined [36] - **Operation Strategy**: The price may oscillate between 4500 - 4800, and producers should conduct hedging on rallies in the fourth quarter [36] Agricultural Products Cotton and Cotton Yarn - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Cotton purchase prices were stable during the holiday. Due to the US government shutdown, US cotton data was suspended, and price fluctuations were small [39] - **Operation Strategy**: Conduct selling hedging on rallies [39] Live Pigs - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Pig prices declined during the holiday due to oversupply. In the long - term, supply will increase before May next year, and prices will be under pressure [40] - **Operation Strategy**: The futures market is expected to open lower. Adopt a long - term short - selling strategy for 11, 01, 03, 05 contracts, be cautious about bottom - fishing for 07, 09 contracts, and pay attention to the arbitrage of going long on 05 and short on 03 [41] Corn - **Risk Level**: ★ - **Fundamentals**: New - season corn prices declined due to concerns about quality and increased supply. Demand was weak in the short - term but had potential for recovery in the long - term [43] - **Operation Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on the futures market, and wait for rallies to enter short positions [43] Eggs - **Risk Level**: ★★★ - **Fundamentals**: Egg prices were weak during the holiday. Supply growth slowed down, but there was still pressure. There was replenishment demand after the holiday, but prices were under pressure in the long - term [45] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold short positions for the 11 - month contract. Be cautious about short - selling the 12 and 01 contracts, and wait for rallies to enter short positions [46] Meal - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: CBOT soybeans rose slightly during the holiday. Domestic soybean supply was expected to be loose in the fourth quarter, and soybean meal inventory was increasing. Prices were expected to rise slightly in November [48] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions on dips and reduce positions on rallies for M2601, and pay attention to the support at 2900 - 2930 [48] Oils - **Risk Level**: ★★★ - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil and soybean oil prices rose slightly during the holiday. Malaysian palm oil exports were strong, and there was a possibility of inventory reduction. Domestic oil inventories were high in the short - term [50] - **Operation Strategy**: Adopt a long - buying strategy on dips for 01 contracts of palm, soybean, and rapeseed oils, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage of the rapeseed - soybean oil price spread [50]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Powell's dovish signal at the Jackson Hole meeting has led to a significant rebound in US stocks, with the market almost fully pricing in a rate cut in September and two cuts within the year [1][7][8] - Key economic data includes initial jobless claims at 235,000, slightly above previous and forecast values, and the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August at 53.3, exceeding both previous and forecast values [1][7][8] - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming July core PCE inflation data, suggesting that if it comes in below expectations, the trend of rate cut trading in the stock market may continue [1][7] Group 2 - The report tracks the performance of major global asset classes, noting that the Shenzhen Composite Index had the highest increase at +4.57%, while the New Zealand dollar saw the largest decline at -1.92% against the RMB [2][23] - In the equity market, the materials sector in the US saw the largest gain at +5.01%, while the healthcare sector experienced the largest decline at -0.37% [2][33] - The report also indicates that the energy sector in Japan had a significant increase of +18.44%, while the information technology sector faced a decline of -7.54% [2][33] Group 3 - The report provides updates on important global economic data, including a rebound in the Eurozone consumer confidence index and an increase in the UK services PMI [50][60][62] - The Japanese composite PMI also showed an upward trend, indicating a positive outlook for the Japanese economy [62][63] - The report emphasizes the significance of these economic indicators in assessing the overall health of the global economy [50][60][62]

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index increased by 1.33%, reaching 28.8288 points, showing an upward trend throughout the day [1] - CBOT corn futures rose by 1.43%, priced at $4.07 per bushel [1] - CBOT wheat futures increased by 1.70%, priced at $5.1825 per bushel [1] - CBOT soybean futures gained 0.96%, priced at $9.9450 per bushel, while soybean meal futures rose by 1.47% and soybean oil futures decreased by 0.29% [1]

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index increased by 0.16%, reaching 29.5845 points, with a peak of 29.8546 points earlier in the day [1] - CBOT corn futures rose by 1.52%, closing at $4.1850 per bushel, after hitting a low of $4.0750 [1] - CBOT wheat futures fell by 0.55%, settling at $5.42 per bushel, moving away from a daily high of $5.5150 [1] Group 2 - CBOT soybean futures remained relatively stable, closing at $10.0725 per bushel, after dropping to a low of $9.9825 and later reaching a high of $10.1450 [1] - Soybean meal futures decreased by 0.74%, while soybean oil futures increased by 0.71% [1]

Group 1 - The report highlights a divergence in the Federal Reserve's internal policy views, with an expectation of two rate cuts this year, although the number of officials not anticipating a cut has risen to seven [2][8][10] - The upcoming PCE data is crucial, with market expectations for core PCE to rise to 2.6% from the previous 2.5%, which could influence future rate cut timing [2][8][10] Group 2 - In the U.S. economic data, May industrial production decreased by 0.20%, below both the previous and expected values of 0.10% [3][9] - The initial jobless claims for the week ending June 14 were 245,000, aligning with expectations and lower than the previous 250,000 [3][9] - New housing starts in May were annualized at 1.256 million units, below the previous 1.392 million and the expected 1.357 million [3][9] Group 3 - Global major asset classes showed mixed performance, with CBOT soybean oil rising by 7.49%, while CBOT corn fell by 3.54% [26][42] - The Korean Composite Stock Price Index had the highest gain at 4.40%, while the Hang Seng Index saw the largest decline at 1.52% [29][35] Group 4 - The report notes that the U.S. labor market remains resilient, with multiple indicators suggesting the economy is close to maximum employment levels [10][17] - The report also indicates that the economic growth rate is estimated to be between 1.5% and 2% [10][17] Group 5 - The report tracks significant economic data updates, including a rebound in the Eurozone economic sentiment index and a decline in the UK consumer confidence index [52][62] - Japan's CPI showed a month-on-month decrease, indicating potential deflationary pressures [71][73]

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index decreased by 0.90% to 31.5674 points on Friday, June 20, with a cumulative increase of 0.55% over the week (four trading days) [1] - CBOT corn futures fell by 0.45% to $4.42 per bushel, with a cumulative decline of 0.23% for the week [1] Group 2 - CBOT wheat futures dropped by 1.31% to $5.8275 per bushel, but showed a cumulative increase of 4.20% for the week [2] - CBOT soybean futures decreased by 0.73% to $10.6050 per bushel, with a cumulative increase of 0.55% for the week; soybean meal futures fell by 1.62%, while soybean oil futures rose by 7.52% [2]

Core Insights - The Bloomberg Grain Index has increased by 2.61% this week, closing at 31.4047 points on Friday, May 23, with a continuous rise from May 20 to 21 and slight fluctuations at high levels on May 22 to 23 [1] Summary by Category Corn Market - CBOT corn futures have risen by 3.49%, reaching $4.59 per bushel, with a consistent increase from May 19 to 22 and a slight decline on May 23 [1] Wheat Market - CBOT wheat futures have increased by 3.52%, closing at $5.4350 per bushel, with gains observed on May 20 to 21 and a minor retreat on May 22 to 23 [1] Soybean Market - CBOT soybean futures have seen a rise of 1.02%, closing at $10.6075 per bushel, while soybean meal futures increased by 1.44% and soybean oil futures rose by 0.59% [1]