本文来自格隆汇专栏：梁中华宏观研究 作者：王宇晴、梁中华 经济：美国方面：11月美国新增非农就业略超预期但总体仍处于放缓趋势，失业率超预期回升；11月美国通胀增速明显低于预期，政府关门所导致的统计 数据失真或导致通胀数据被低估。房地产方面，成屋销售同比与环比增速均有所回落；10月零售销售同比增速下降，但主要受汽车与汽油的拖累，剔除这 两项后核心零售仍然表现强劲；截至12月13日当周，美国首次申请失业金人数总体维持稳定；12月美国密歇根大学消费者信心指数有所上升。 欧洲方面：10月欧元区19国工业生产同比增速有所回升，制造业与服务业PMI回落，不及市场预期。 政策：美联储或暂停降息，新任美联储主席人选或在2026年初公布。欧央行连续第四次会议维持利率不变，降息周期或已接近尾声；欧盟放宽原定于2035 年开始停止销售新的汽油和柴油车的规定；日央行如期加息25BP，未来或仍将缓慢加息；日本当局或对日元汇率采取干预措施；英国央行如期降息 25BP，未来降息节奏或放缓；墨西哥央行降息25BP，将政策利率下调至7%。 风险提示：特朗普政治施压升级进一步危害美联储独立性；美国失业率非线性恶化。 1、美国：就业延续放缓，通胀 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing volatility in the international political and economic landscape during the recent holiday period, with significant events in the U.S., Japan, France, and the Middle East impacting global markets [1][4]. Group 1: U.S. Economic Situation - The U.S. government has entered a shutdown due to a stalemate between the two parties over temporary funding and healthcare subsidies, marking the first shutdown in seven years. Predictions indicate a 75% chance of the shutdown lasting over 15 days [8]. - Recent economic indicators, including ADP employment and PMI data, have fallen short of market expectations, reinforcing the likelihood of consecutive interest rate cuts. The probability of a 25 basis point cut in October is at 94.6% and 83.4% for December [8][4]. Group 2: International Political Developments - In Japan, Fumio Kishida has been elected as the new president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, potentially becoming the first female Prime Minister. Kishida is expected to continue the "Abenomics" approach, focusing on aggressive fiscal and monetary policies [8]. - In France, the resignation of Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne highlights growing fiscal risks, with France's budget deficit projected to be the highest in the Eurozone for 2024 and government debt at 113% of GDP, significantly above the EU's 60% threshold [8]. - The ongoing ceasefire negotiations in Gaza face significant challenges, with substantial divisions among parties involved, indicating continued uncertainty in the Middle East [8]. Group 3: Global Asset Performance - During the holiday period from September 30 to October 7, 2025, global asset prices showed mixed results. The Nikkei 225 rose by 6.72%, emerging market stocks increased by 2.17%, and developed market stocks rose by 0.80%. The S&P 500 saw a modest increase of 0.39% [3]. - Commodity prices exhibited a mixed trend, with COMEX copper rising by 4.38% and London gold increasing by 3.28%, while IPE Brent crude futures fell by 1.98% [3].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4%-4.25%, with an expectation of an additional 50 basis points reduction by the end of the year, indicating a more dovish stance compared to previous projections [1][7] - Fed Chairman Powell characterized the rate cut as a "risk management" decision, highlighting concerns about a weakening labor market and rising risks to employment [1][7] - The market had largely priced in the 25 basis point cut prior to the announcement, leading to a mixed reaction in the dollar index and U.S. stock markets post-announcement [1][7] Group 2 - U.S. retail sales for August increased by 0.6%, up from a previous value of 0.5%, indicating a slight improvement in consumer spending [2][8] - Initial jobless claims decreased to 231,000 from 264,000, while continuing claims fell to 1.92 million from 1.93 million, suggesting resilience in the labor market [2][8] - The economic backdrop is characterized by a "stagflation-like" environment, with inflation concerns persisting despite the Fed's actions [1][7] Group 3 - Major global asset classes showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq Composite Index rising by 2.21%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.30% [2][28] - In the commodities market, CBOT corn saw the largest increase at 6.46%, while LME three-month lead experienced the largest decline at 0.72% [2][47] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 8 basis points to 4.14%, reflecting a divergence in global long-term interest rates [2][48]

Group 1: U.S. Economic Indicators - U.S. manufacturing PMI rose from 49.8 to 53.3, exceeding market expectations of 49.7[8] - New home starts increased by 10.6 percentage points to 12.9%, the highest since December 2023[10] - Existing home sales annualized at 4.01 million units, above the expected 3.92 million[10] Group 2: Market Reactions - U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the S&P 500 up 0.3% and the Nikkei 225 down 1.7%[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 7 basis points to 4.26%[3] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.12% to 97.72[3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Powell signaled a dovish shift at the Jackson Hole meeting, indicating potential rate cuts in September[1] - The Fed may implement a maximum of two rate cuts within the year due to inflation concerns[1] - The ECB is expected to remain on hold in September, as inflation is no longer a primary focus[1]

Core Viewpoint - A-shares lead global markets, with the rapid appreciation of the RMB and a decline in the US dollar index driven by interest rate cut expectations, while gold surpasses $3,400 [1] Global Major Asset Performance - Last week (August 25-29, 2025), major economic stock markets showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.8%, while the emerging market stock index fell by 0.6% [6] - Most commodities saw price increases, with IPE Brent crude oil futures up by 0.5% and London gold rising by 2.2% [6] - The US dollar index remained stable, closing up by 0.1% for the week [6] - The 10-year US Treasury yield slightly decreased from 4.26% to 4.23% [6] US Economic Overview - The US second-quarter GDP growth rate was revised to 3.3% year-on-year [6] - The core PCE price index year-on-year growth rate increased, with July's PCE index rising by 2.60% and core PCE by 2.88% [6] - Initial jobless claims decreased to 229,000 [6] - Personal disposable income grew by 4.6% year-on-year, while personal consumption expenditure increased by 4.7% [6] - The consumer confidence index fell to 58.2 in August from 61.7 [6] - Inflation expectations rose, with the one-year inflation expectation increasing to 4.8% from 4.5% [6] European Economic Overview - The Eurozone consumer confidence index dropped to -15.5 in August from -14.7 [6] - The Eurozone economic sentiment index fell to 95.2 from 95.7 [6] Monetary Policy Insights - Multiple Federal Reserve officials hinted at a potential interest rate cut in September [6] - The US appeals court ruled that most of Trump's global tariffs were illegal but allowed the government to retain tariff measures [6] - Hopes for a trade agreement between the US and India appear dim, with the US imposing a 50% tariff on India [6] - The Bank of Japan indicated that the current economic environment is more favorable for interest rate hikes compared to April [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Powell's dovish signal at the Jackson Hole meeting has led to a significant rebound in US stocks, with the market almost fully pricing in a rate cut in September and two cuts within the year [1][7][8] - Key economic data includes initial jobless claims at 235,000, slightly above previous and forecast values, and the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August at 53.3, exceeding both previous and forecast values [1][7][8] - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming July core PCE inflation data, suggesting that if it comes in below expectations, the trend of rate cut trading in the stock market may continue [1][7] Group 2 - The report tracks the performance of major global asset classes, noting that the Shenzhen Composite Index had the highest increase at +4.57%, while the New Zealand dollar saw the largest decline at -1.92% against the RMB [2][23] - In the equity market, the materials sector in the US saw the largest gain at +5.01%, while the healthcare sector experienced the largest decline at -0.37% [2][33] - The report also indicates that the energy sector in Japan had a significant increase of +18.44%, while the information technology sector faced a decline of -7.54% [2][33] Group 3 - The report provides updates on important global economic data, including a rebound in the Eurozone consumer confidence index and an increase in the UK services PMI [50][60][62] - The Japanese composite PMI also showed an upward trend, indicating a positive outlook for the Japanese economy [62][63] - The report emphasizes the significance of these economic indicators in assessing the overall health of the global economy [50][60][62]

Global Asset Performance - Global stock markets mostly declined last week, while commodity prices generally increased. The Nikkei 225 rose by 1.50%, emerging market stock index increased by 0.05%, S&P 500 fell by 0.15%, developed market stock index decreased by 0.30%, Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 0.51%, and Hang Seng Index fell by 1.52% [1][3] - Commodity prices saw significant increases, with IPE Brent crude futures up by 2.85%, S&P-Goldman Commodity Index rising by 2.30%, South China Commodity Index increasing by 2.29%, and COMEX copper up by 1.74%. However, London gold spot price decreased by 1.91% [1][3] - In the bond market, domestic 10Y government bond futures prices rose by 0.30%, and the total price index of China bonds increased by 0.16%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 3 basis points to 4.38% [1][3] Economic Indicators in the U.S. - U.S. industrial output fell both year-on-year and month-on-month in May 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.13% compared to 0.55% in the previous month, and a month-on-month growth rate of -0.21% compared to -0.10% [6][10] - The industrial capacity utilization rate in the U.S. decreased to 77.43%, while the manufacturing capacity utilization rate slightly increased to 76.73% [6] - The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for June remained unchanged at -4.0, showing improvement from April's -26.4 [8] - New private housing starts in the U.S. fell by 4.56% year-on-year in May, and retail and food service sales also declined by 3.29% year-on-year [10] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% during the June meeting, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a change. However, inflation expectations have increased, with the Fed lowering its economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [24] - The European Central Bank (ECB) indicated that its anti-inflation measures are nearly complete, with a cautious stance on future rate cuts, although market expectations suggest a potential rate cut later in the year [25] - The Bank of Japan decided to keep its policy rate unchanged at around 0.5% and will slow the pace of bond purchase reductions starting in the fiscal year 2026 [26]