全球金融秩序重塑：黄金飙升背后的中国策略 一场不动声色的货币变革，正在全球金融舞台上悄然上演。黄金，这个一度被时代遗忘的古老价值符 号，正以惊人的速度重返人们的视野。从俄乌冲突爆发时的1800美元，到如今突破3800美元，黄金价格 的飙升，绝非单纯的市场波动，而是全球金融秩序重塑的清晰信号。 "中国式保管"：重塑信任的巧妙一步 9月23日，彭博社的一则报道引人注目：中国正逐渐成为外国主权黄金的"保管员"。一些东南亚国家已 选择将本国黄金运至中国储存。这一看似简单的举动，实则意义深远。它挑战着以美元为中心的传统金 融体系，并预示着一种新的信任关系的建立。 回溯历史，布雷顿森林体系曾赋予美元至高地位，凭借"35美元兑换1盎司黄金"的承诺，美元一度成为 全球货币霸主。然而，随着美国单方面撕毁承诺，美元逐渐与石油挂钩，形成了石油美元体系。如今， 美国在中东的影响力日渐式微，石油美元体系也面临挑战。 在这样的背景下，中国提出的"代管黄金"策略，无疑是在美元霸权的伤口上撒盐。当其他国家被限制使 用黄金进行结算时，中国挺身而出，提供黄金储存服务，为建立新的结算体系奠定基础。这如同当年支 付宝的横空出世，以便捷的支付方式，彻 ...

黄金，这个被遗忘了几十年的"老古董"，突然又火了。 从俄乌冲突时的1800美元，一路狂飙到现在的3800美元——翻了一倍多。别以为这只是普通的价格波 动，说白了，这是全球金融秩序正在重新洗牌的信号弹。 更劲爆的是，9月23日，彭博社爆出一个大料：中国正在悄悄成为"外国主权黄金的保管员"。已经有东 南亚国家把自家的黄金运到中国存着了。这事儿听起来简单，背后的水可深着呢。 还记得布雷顿森林体系吗？当年美国就是靠着"35美元兑换1盎司黄金"这个承诺，让美元成了全球货币 老大。虽然后来美国耍赖不认账了，但又用军事实力强行把美元和石油捆绑，搞出了个石油美元体系。 可现在呢？美国在中东的影响力一天不如一天，石油美元这张牌快打不动了。 而中国这招"代管黄金"，简直是在美元霸权的伤口上撒盐——你不是不让各国用黄金结算吗？那我就帮 大家存黄金，慢慢建立一个新的结算体系。 这就像当年支付宝刚出来时，大家还在用现金和银行卡，突然有人说："来，把钱存我这儿，以后买东 西扫码就行。"看似简单的一个动作，却彻底改变了支付格局。 更有意思的是，9月18日SWIFT发布的数据显示：人民币8月份的支付金额减少了5.13%，在全球支付货 币中只 ...

Summary of Cross-Border Payment Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The cross-border payment market consists of B2C and B2B segments, with B2C primarily serving Chinese merchants on e-commerce platforms like Amazon and Shopee, and B2B targeting small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises [1][2] - Major players in the B2C segment include LianLian Digital, PingPong Payments, and others, with a combined transaction volume nearing $150 billion [1][2] - XTransfer leads the B2B segment with an annual transaction volume of $30-40 billion, while other companies also report significant volumes [1][2] Market Growth and Opportunities - The cross-border payment market in China is projected to exceed 7.5 trillion RMB in transaction volume (TPV) by 2024, with an expected annual growth rate of over 25% from 2022 to 2027 [2] - The global B2B e-commerce trade is expected to grow at a CAGR of over 15%, while B2C is projected to grow at over 10% from 2022 to 2026 [4] - China's export volume is anticipated to approach 47 trillion RMB by 2027, with a growth rate exceeding 10% [4] Business Models and Fee Structures - B2C companies link payment services directly to e-commerce platforms, while B2B companies open virtual accounts for SMEs in foreign banks, earning revenue from exchange rate spreads [3] - The average fee rate in the industry is around 0.3%, which has stabilized after a decline from approximately 0.4% two to three years ago [3] Unique Value Proposition of Cross-Border Payment Providers - Cross-border payment service providers offer efficient, secure, and low-cost solutions for SMEs, addressing their challenges in obtaining bank support [5] - Traditional banks impose high costs and lengthy processes, making cross-border payment providers a more viable option for small enterprises [5] Current Trends and Future Directions - The market is rapidly evolving, with increasing demand from SMEs and cross-border e-commerce [6] - Cross-border payment providers are expected to expand their market size and opportunities as more SMEs enter international markets [6] Development of RMB Cross-Border Payment Systems - China is actively developing RMB-centric cross-border payment systems like CIPS to reduce reliance on the SWIFT system, enhancing efficiency and lowering costs [7] - Initiatives like the "Cross-Border Wealth Management Connect" in Hong Kong facilitate real-time cross-border remittances, indicating a significant opportunity for RMB internationalization [7] Impact of Stablecoins on Cross-Border Payments - Stablecoins are set to revolutionize traditional cross-border payment models by enabling real-time settlements and significantly reducing costs [8] - Payment service providers must adapt to this new environment while continuing to offer essential services [8] Adjustments Needed by Payment Service Providers - Providers need to upgrade their technology to support new RMB settlement methods and stablecoin transactions, ensuring compliance and security [9] - They must continue to offer efficient, low-cost services to meet diverse client needs [9] Merchant Preferences in Payment Solutions - Merchants prioritize the convenience and integration of payment solutions over the specifics of the settlement process [10] - The potential reduction in fees due to stablecoin adoption could provide significant cost savings for merchants [10] Leading Companies in Cross-Border Payment - Notable companies in the cross-border payment sector include LianLian Digital, Newland, and Lakala, each with distinct business strategies and market positions [12][14][17] - LianLian Digital has obtained 65 global payment licenses, with a transaction volume of 3.3 trillion RMB, while Lakala's Skyee brand serves over 120,000 clients with a transaction volume of 49.2 billion RMB [14][17] Conclusion - The cross-border payment industry is poised for significant growth driven by e-commerce expansion, technological advancements, and evolving consumer preferences, presenting ample opportunities for established and emerging players alike [1][4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high of 3512.67 points on July 9, 2023, primarily supported by large-cap stocks such as CATL, Hengrui Medicine, and China Oil Capital, despite most stocks declining [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 9, the A-share market had a trading volume of 1.53 trillion yuan, an increase of 528 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange contributing 595.96 billion yuan and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 909.22 billion yuan [2]. - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3493.05 points, while the ChiNext Index closed at 2184.67 points, with 1856 stocks rising and 3327 stocks falling [1][2]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The banking and technology sectors saw significant contributions to the index, with major banks like Agricultural Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China reaching historical highs [2][4]. - The media sector led the gains, with stocks like Zhongwen Online rising over 10%, while the human-robot sector experienced volatility, with some stocks hitting the daily limit [3][4]. Group 3: Historical Highs - A total of 33 stocks reached historical highs on July 9, with 5 from the banking sector and 10 from the technology sector, indicating a structural trend in the A-share market [4]. - Notable performers included Beijing Bank and Agricultural Bank of China, with Beijing Bank showing a cumulative increase of over 20% this year [4]. Group 4: Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that the current market environment is characterized by a strong liquidity support, but caution that volatility may increase in the future due to various influencing factors [1][7]. - Recommendations include focusing on high-growth technology sectors and undervalued companies with high dividends, as the market is at a critical juncture [7].

Group 1 - The dominance of the US dollar is beginning to weaken, with an increase in the internationalization of the Chinese yuan, particularly in energy and commodity transactions [5][6][7] - The rise of the CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payment System) serves as a substantial alternative to SWIFT, allowing for faster and cheaper transactions while bypassing US financial monitoring [5][6] Group 2 - The US's technological blockade against China has inadvertently stimulated domestic innovation, leading to breakthroughs in various sectors such as 5G, operating systems, and aerospace [8][10][12] - The pressure from the US has acted as an accelerator for China's self-reliance in technology, transforming challenges into opportunities for advancement [9][12][13] Group 3 - The military advantage of the US is no longer a unilateral dominance, as China's advancements in missile technology and naval capabilities challenge US military presence globally [14][15] - The inability of the US to maintain its global military commitments is evident, with allies questioning US security assurances [14][15] Group 4 - The narrative control that the US has historically maintained is eroding, as global perceptions shift towards recognizing China's economic growth and infrastructure development [16][17][18] - The rise of alternative voices in regions like Latin America, Africa, and Central Asia indicates a diversification of perspectives away from US-centric narratives [17][18] Group 5 - The decline of US hegemony is attributed to its own internal decay rather than direct confrontation, with China leveraging its strengths to navigate this asymmetrical competition [20][21][22] - China's approach focuses on self-improvement and resilience, positioning itself as a counterbalance to the outdated global order without seeking to dominate [23][24]

Core Insights - The share of Renminbi (RMB) in global payment markets has significantly dropped to 2.89%, falling below the 3% mark and ranking sixth globally, overtaken by the Canadian dollar [1][2] - The decline in RMB's payment share is attributed to various factors, including market fluctuations and the diversification of RMB settlement channels, rather than solely the impact of trade tensions [2][7] Payment Share Overview - As of May 2024, the US dollar remains dominant with a 48.46% share, followed by the euro at 23.5%, which has increased by 1.4 percentage points [1] - The British pound holds a 7.1% share, while the Japanese yen and Canadian dollar account for 3.7% and 3.11% respectively, showing little change from previous months [1] RMB Payment Trends - RMB payment share fluctuated throughout 2024, peaking at 4.74% in July before declining to 2.9% in October, indicating normal monthly volatility rather than a definitive setback in internationalization [2][7] - The RMB's previous rise to the fourth largest payment currency was short-lived, with its share dropping significantly in recent months [2] CIPS and Internationalization Efforts - The China International Payment System (CIPS) is increasingly facilitating RMB settlements, with 180 direct participants and over 1,500 indirect participants across more than 180 countries [5] - CIPS processed 175 trillion RMB in cross-border payments in 2024, marking a 43% year-on-year increase, and has expanded its reach by adding new overseas financial institutions [5] Future Outlook - Despite the challenges faced by RMB internationalization, including significant gaps compared to the US dollar and euro, the potential for growth remains strong [7] - The rise of CIPS and the expansion of RMB swap agreements are seen as key drivers for the future of RMB internationalization [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Trump's tariff policy on global markets and China's response, highlighting the stabilization of the A-share market through various measures taken by the government and market participants [1][2][4]. Group 1: Impact of Tariff Policy - Trump's announcement of a minimum 10% tariff on global imports and specific rates on countries like China (34%) and the EU (20%) has led to significant declines in global asset prices, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropping by 9.9% and 11.4% respectively [2][3]. - The A-share market experienced a sharp decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 7.3% on April 7, but showed signs of recovery with a 1.6% increase on April 8 due to intervention from various funds [2][3]. Group 2: Government and Institutional Response - The "national team" entered the market to stabilize it, with the Central Huijin announcing increased purchases of ETF funds, which saw a significant rise in trading volume, indicating strong demand [3][4]. - Regulatory bodies provided support by adjusting insurance fund investment ratios, allowing for greater equity asset allocation, which enhances market stability [3][4]. Group 3: Market Participants' Actions - Over 30 listed companies initiated stock buybacks, totaling over 15 billion yuan, reflecting confidence in their financial health and future prospects [4]. - The combination of government intervention, regulatory adjustments, and proactive measures from market participants demonstrates a collaborative effort to stabilize the market [4]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The article expresses a long-term positive outlook for the Chinese capital market, emphasizing that the current macroeconomic environment is more favorable compared to 2018, with a focus on internal demand and technological advancements [10][12]. - The diversification of export structures and the reduced reliance on the U.S. market (from 19.2% in 2018 to 14.7% in 2024) suggests that external shocks will have a limited impact on the overall economy [13]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Future investment opportunities may include sectors such as semiconductors and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), which are expected to rebound due to domestic policy support and a focus on self-sufficiency [14]. - The food and beverage sector is likely to perform well due to low external dependency and increased domestic consumption support [15]. - Defensive sectors like banking and utilities are recommended for their high dividend yields and resilience during market downturns, with current yields around 6% compared to a 10-year government bond yield of 1.6% [15].