历史的回音总是会在最意想不到的时刻展现其深刻的意义。2025年，中美再度站在了关税战的风口浪 尖，但这一次，世界的背景发生了变化。中国已不再是2000年那个刚刚加入世贸组织的国家，也不像 2008年那样，美国孤立无援地试图挽救全球金融体系。今天的世界已经不同，中国的实力发生了变化， 美国的地位也发生了改变。 这场较量背后的逻辑非常简单清晰：中国利用经过三十年积淀的战略定力和庞大市场带来的产业优势， 而美国则通过不断扩大的财政赤字和货币操控维系着它的霸权地位。此次较量，不仅仅是关税层面的争 斗，更是两国制度与国力、信心之间的较量。 2000年时，中国与东盟的贸易额仅为400亿美元。当时中 国提出要与东盟建立自由贸易区，但却遭遇了不少质疑和担忧。许多东盟国家担心自己无法承受与中国 的合作带来的压力。 然而，中国并没有采用强硬的手段，而是提出了一个极具智慧的解决方案——早 期收获计划。通过让出市场、减免关税，甚至有些吃亏，中国换取了信任。如今，回头来看，2024年， 东盟已经成为中国最大的贸易伙伴，双方的年贸易额接近1万亿美元。 这正是战略定力的体现。中国当 时的让步，为小国提供了安全感，而美国今天加征的关税却让连 ...

Group 1 - The ongoing competition between the US and China resembles a boxing match, with both sides taking aggressive actions against each other, particularly in the high-tech sector [1] - The US has implemented policies to surround Chinese high-tech companies, prompting reactions from countries like the Netherlands, which attempted to acquire companies with significant operations in China [1] - China's countermeasures include strict controls on rare earth elements and lithium batteries, which are crucial for global high-tech industries [1] Group 2 - The US is facing internal challenges, with officials vocally discussing the potential expulsion of China from the SWIFT system, a move that could severely disrupt international banking and trade [2] - If China were to be excluded from SWIFT, it would likely lead to increased use of CIPS (China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System) for international trade, although CIPS is not as widely adopted as SWIFT [2] - China's GDP is projected to exceed $1 trillion in 2024, and its manufacturing sector holds a critical position globally, which could influence trade dynamics if SWIFT is used against it [2] Group 3 - The increasing use of the Chinese yuan for international transactions, such as in Australian iron ore trades, could undermine the dollar's dominance if it extends to oil, grain, and other commodities [4] - A shift towards yuan-based transactions could lead to decreased demand for US Treasury bonds, negatively impacting the US economy [4] - The current instability of the dollar raises concerns about the potential consequences of extreme measures taken by the US against China [4] Group 4 - The ongoing US-China rivalry is characterized by a mutual reluctance to fully decouple, as both sides recognize the potential for significant losses [5] - China's resources, including rare earths, lithium batteries, and payment systems, provide it with leverage in this geopolitical struggle [5] - The extreme measures taken by the US could inadvertently accelerate China's self-reliance and economic independence [5]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is advancing the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) by enhancing its functions in pricing, payment, investment, financing, and reserves [1] - The PBOC has authorized Abu Dhabi First Bank to act as the RMB clearing bank in the UAE, marking it as the first regional local bank to take on this role, which will facilitate RMB clearing services and promote bilateral trade and investment between China and the UAE [1] - The PBOC plans to optimize the management system of the digital RMB and support more commercial banks to become operational entities for digital RMB services [1] Group 2 - Current global cross-border payments heavily rely on the USD clearing system, which has inefficiencies due to multiple intermediaries, indicating a significant opportunity for improvement [2] - The digital RMB platform, based on blockchain technology, offers direct peer-to-peer fund clearing, which can shorten transaction times, reduce intermediary costs, and enhance the efficiency of cross-border payments [2] Group 3 - Companies like Jingbeifang are involved in the construction of payment settlement systems for several banks, assisting clients in connecting to SWIFT and CIPS systems [3] - Sifang Jingchuang is building cross-border payment systems based on traditional frameworks like SWIFT and CIPS, as well as domestic systems like IBPS and Hong Kong's FPS [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the growing trend of countries, including China and 32 others, signing currency swap and settlement agreements, totaling 4.5 trillion RMB, which challenges the dominance of the US dollar in international trade [2][4][6] - The shift towards local currency transactions is seen as a response to the volatility and costs associated with using the US dollar, particularly in light of recent US monetary policies [4][6][9] Currency Swap Agreements - Countries such as Brazil and Egypt have entered into agreements to conduct trade in their own currencies, reducing reliance on the US dollar [2][10] - The agreement between China and Brazil involves 190 billion RMB exchanged for 157 billion Brazilian Reais, allowing direct currency settlements for trade [2] Global Payment Trends - The share of the RMB in global payments is projected to rise to 4.5% in 2024, making it the fourth-largest payment currency, up from 1.9% in 2019 [7] - The CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payment System) has expanded its reach to 180 countries, with a 45% increase in transaction volume, indicating a shift away from the SWIFT system [7][15] Impact on the US Dollar - The article highlights a decline in foreign holdings of US debt, dropping from 30% in 2015 to 22% in 2024, suggesting a loss of confidence in the dollar [13] - The US's attempts to maintain its dollar dominance through tariffs and pressure on allies have led to unintended consequences, including rising domestic inflation and increased costs for US businesses [13][18] International Reactions - Countries like Argentina have resisted US pressure to abandon currency swap agreements with China, indicating a shift in geopolitical dynamics [4][6] - The trend of de-dollarization is becoming more mainstream, with ordinary citizens becoming aware of alternatives to dollar-based transactions [16][18]

Core Viewpoint - The application of digital currency, particularly the digital yuan (e-CNY), is becoming a significant trend in international payments and cross-border trade settlements, representing China's strategic move to enhance its competitiveness in the global economic system [1] Group 1: Digital Yuan and Smart Contracts - The digital yuan is not just a digital form of the renminbi but a strategic initiative by China to deepen reforms and enhance competitiveness in the global economy [1] - Smart contracts, based on blockchain technology, can automatically execute contract terms without relying on third-party intermediaries, improving efficiency and transparency in cross-border trade settlements [1][3] Group 2: Advantages Over Traditional Payment Systems - Traditional cross-border payment systems rely on intermediaries, making the process cumbersome and time-consuming, while the digital yuan's smart contracts can automatically trigger payments upon consensus between trading parties [3] - The use of digital yuan can effectively reduce risks associated with exchange rate fluctuations by minimizing foreign exchange conversion steps, thus enhancing payment stability and reliability [3] Group 3: Integration with SWIFT System - The SWIFT system remains a crucial infrastructure for cross-border payments, but it has limitations such as long transaction times and high costs, which the digital yuan's smart contracts can help address [5] - Integrating digital yuan smart contracts into the SWIFT system can enhance cross-border payment efficiency, reduce costs, and improve interoperability within the global payment system [5][7] Group 4: Future Implications - The collaboration between digital yuan and the SWIFT system can simplify settlement processes by allowing direct payments between buyers and sellers, reducing operational risks and disputes arising from information asymmetry [7] - The synergy between digital yuan and SWIFT is expected to drive the intelligent transformation of global cross-border payments, ushering in a new era of efficient, secure, and convenient payment solutions [9]

Group 1 - The roundtable discussion at Fudan University focused on the relationship between stablecoins and the dominance of the US dollar, suggesting that the rise of stablecoins in cross-border payments could structurally impact the international monetary system and potentially weaken the dollar's hegemony [1][2] - The establishment of dollar hegemony dates back to the Bretton Woods system, where the US dollar became the primary reserve currency due to the US's post-World War II economic strength and its commitment to provide public goods to the international community [2] - The "Nixon Shock" in 1971 marked a turning point where the US detached the dollar from gold, relying on the SWIFT system's network effects and international governance to maintain its monetary dominance, despite a decline in its economic power [2] Group 2 - Following the passage of stablecoin legislation in the US Senate, there were criticisms that such measures could harm dollar hegemony, while US Treasury Secretary argued that stablecoins would enhance it [3] - The traditional monetary phase showcased the clear dominance of the dollar and the SWIFT system in cross-border payments, but the emergence of stablecoins and blockchain technology poses challenges to this established dominance [3][9] - The SWIFT system, with over 11,000 financial institutions connected, has significant network effects that make it difficult to replace, but the current phase of stablecoins may disrupt this advantage [3] Group 3 - Countries like Russia and Iran have sought alternatives to the SWIFT system, particularly in response to US sanctions, leading to the development of their own cross-border payment systems [4][5] - Russia's SPFS and Iran's SEPAM systems were created to mitigate the impact of financial sanctions and enhance financial security, with both countries actively working to connect their systems for improved trade and banking cooperation [6] - The CIPS system in China represents a different approach, focusing on developing infrastructure to support the internationalization of the renminbi and facilitating cross-border trade and investment [7] Group 4 - The stablecoin phase is characterized by a diverse development landscape, where the US does not hold a central position, and the SWIFT system is not the sole player, leading to potential challenges to its hegemonic status [8] - Projects like the mBridge initiative, involving multiple central banks, aim to create efficient and low-cost cross-border payment systems using central bank digital currencies, indicating a rapid evolution in this space [8] - Overall, while the dollar and SWIFT maintain their dominance in the traditional monetary phase, the stablecoin phase may weaken the US's digital currency hegemony due to diminishing network effects [9]

Group 1: Rise of the Renminbi - The Renminbi has become the world's second-largest trade financing currency and the third-largest payment currency, marking a significant shift in the global economic landscape [1][5] - The rapid rise of the Renminbi is attributed to the differences in data sources, with China’s independent Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) facilitating significant trade volumes that bypass Western systems [3][5] - Despite the Renminbi's international reserve share being only 2.18%, its influence in trade financing has surpassed the Euro, indicating a substantial underlying economic strength [5][12] Group 2: Challenges to Dollar Dominance - The U.S. dollar's dominance is being challenged by internal issues such as the U.S. debt crisis, inflation, and frequent interest rate adjustments, which have eroded investor confidence [9][11] - The U.S. military's perceived inability to maintain global security, as evidenced by conflicts like the Israel-Palestine situation, further diminishes the dollar's appeal as a safe haven currency [11] Group 3: Internal Drivers of Renminbi Growth - China's expansion of trade partnerships, particularly with Russia and African nations, has significantly increased the use of the Renminbi in international trade [12][14] - The Renminbi is viewed as a more stable alternative to the dollar, especially in times of global economic uncertainty, making it an attractive option for countries seeking to diversify their currency reserves [12][14] Group 4: Future Outlook - The potential decline of dollar hegemony is imminent, but the Renminbi's rise will require sustained efforts to enhance its international influence and the adoption of its payment systems [14][16] - The transition from dollar dominance to a more multipolar currency system will take time, and the Renminbi must continue to build its credibility and usage in global transactions [16]

Core Point - The Central Bank of Syria has conducted its first direct international bank transfer through the SWIFT system since the outbreak of the war [1] Group 1 - The transfer marks a significant milestone for Syria's banking system, indicating a potential shift towards re-establishing international financial connections [1] - This event could enhance the country's ability to engage in global trade and financial transactions, which have been severely restricted due to ongoing conflict [1] - The use of the SWIFT system may signal a gradual normalization of Syria's banking operations on the international stage [1]

Group 1: Dollar's Role and Challenges - The dollar has transitioned through various roles, from a dominant currency post-World War I to a key player in the Bretton Woods system, but its fundamental financing function is being misaligned [1][4] - The dollar is increasingly used as a tool for financial sanctions by a few countries, leading to a deconstruction of the credit preference associated with it [1][4] - Tariff policies under the Trump administration have negatively impacted the dollar's credibility, as increased tariffs create risks for global and U.S. economies, reducing the demand for dollars [2][3] Group 2: Economic Implications of Tariff Policies - Trump's tariffs aim to reduce trade deficits and encourage domestic manufacturing, but they may ultimately decrease dollar outflow and international demand for the dollar [3][4] - The focus on goods trade neglects the service trade, where the U.S. has a surplus, and retaliatory measures from other countries could further diminish dollar influence [3][4] Group 3: U.S. National Debt and Dollar Credibility - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with interest payments becoming the fastest-growing part of government spending, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy [7][8] - The cycle of increasing fiscal deficits and national debt issuance is eroding the credibility of the dollar, as the government struggles to manage its financial obligations [6][8] Group 4: Global Shift Away from the Dollar - Countries are actively seeking alternatives to the dollar, establishing bilateral trade agreements and payment systems to reduce reliance on the dollar [10][11] - The trend towards "de-dollarization" is gaining momentum, with various nations exploring digital currencies and alternative payment mechanisms, indicating a shift towards a more diversified global monetary system [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The potential of the U.S. removing China from the SWIFT system is being discussed, but the likelihood of this happening is considered low due to various factors. Group 1: Understanding SWIFT - SWIFT, or the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, is a global financial messaging system that facilitates cross-border transactions between financial institutions [4] - The system covers over 200 countries and connects more than 11,000 financial institutions, handling 90% of global cross-border payments [6] Group 2: U.S. Influence and Decision-Making - The decision to remove a country from SWIFT requires a majority vote from its 25 board members, with Europe holding 17 of those seats, limiting U.S. unilateral power [7] - Historical precedents for removal from SWIFT include Iran in 2012 and Russia in 2022, both of which were cases where European interests were significantly harmed [7] Group 3: Economic Considerations - The U.S. is currently seeking to negotiate with China to lower tariffs and restore normal trade, indicating a reluctance to fully decouple from China [9] - Removing China from SWIFT could lead to significant price increases in the U.S. due to the absence of Chinese goods [9] Group 4: Potential Impacts of Removal - In the short term, removal from SWIFT would severely impact China's export sector, but China has developed its own cross-border payment system, CIPS, which is gaining traction among international banks [11] - Long-term, being excluded from SWIFT could accelerate the internationalization of the Chinese yuan, as more financial institutions may join CIPS [11] Group 5: Market Reactions - A potential removal from SWIFT would likely lead to a significant drop in the A-share market, similar to past events where tariff adjustments caused substantial declines [13] - Historical data shows that major market drops can present investment opportunities, as seen during the 2018 trade war when the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded after hitting a low [15]