证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2026 年 1 月 21 日 12 月社零同比增幅持续收窄，存储器价格持续走强 ——行业景气观察（0121） 本周景气度改善的方向主要在信息技术领域。上游资源品中，工业金属价格普遍 下跌，贵金属价格持续上涨；中游制造领域，12 月汽车产销同比转负，工业机器 人产量同比增幅收窄。信息技术中，存储器价格持续上涨，12 月集成电路产量同 比增幅收窄，智能手机产量同比降幅收窄。消费服务领域，猪鸡价格上行，生猪 养殖盈利改善。12 月社会消费品零售总额当月同比增幅继续收窄。推荐景气较 高或有改善的贵金属、化工、光伏、交运、养殖业、半导体以及政策有望支持的 旅游、酒店餐饮等消费板块。 ❑【本周关注】12 月社会消费品零售总额当月同比增幅继续收窄，主要因为高基数、 整体需求偏弱以及此前扩消费政策导致需求前置的透支效应显现。具体来看：1） 一线城市同比负增，仍是主要拖累，新一线、二线、三线、四线、五线城市社零同 比增速均有放缓；2）必选消费多数放缓，粮油食品、饮料、服装鞋帽针纺织品同 比增幅均收窄，烟酒同比降幅收窄；3）"两新"等扩消费政策透支效应持续，家 电、汽车、家具同比负增，但需求季节 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a mixed economic outlook, with strong performance in technology hardware and electric vehicles driven by increased AI penetration and export trends, while real estate and durable goods remain under pressure [1]. Group 1: Economic Performance - The economic performance shows divergence, with emerging technologies benefiting from rising AI penetration and export trends, leading to a high growth rate in domestic semiconductor sales [1]. - Prices of cyclical resources are increasing due to supply constraints and improved downstream demand, notably lithium carbonate prices rising significantly [1]. - Service consumption is supported by policy, with tourism continuing to perform well and food prices showing slight improvements [1]. Group 2: Downstream Consumption - Tourism continues to improve, with Shanghai Disneyland's crowd index increasing by 10.9% week-on-week and Hainan's tourism price index rising by 11.7% due to seasonal demand [2]. - Real estate remains under pressure, with a 38.9% year-on-year decline in transaction volume across 30 major cities, particularly in first, second, and third-tier cities [2]. - Durable goods, particularly passenger vehicle retail, saw a 14.0% year-on-year decline, while new energy vehicle retail increased by 2.6% with a penetration rate of 59.1% [2]. Group 3: Technology and Manufacturing - The AI industry continues to show high prosperity, with semiconductor sales in November 2025 increasing by 22.9% year-on-year, and prices for high-performance memory rising significantly [3]. - Construction demand remains low, with steel and building material prices fluctuating at low levels [3]. - Electric new material prices are rising, with lithium carbonate prices increasing by 17.2% due to supply clearing and improved demand expectations [3]. Group 4: Logistics and Transportation - Passenger transport volume in major cities decreased by 5.5% week-on-week, indicating a post-holiday drop in travel demand [4]. - Freight logistics demand rebounded after the holiday, with significant increases in truck traffic and railway freight volume [4]. - Shipping prices have decreased, but port throughput for goods and containers has improved, indicating marginal improvements in export conditions [4].

Group 1: Strategy Research - The report highlights a differentiated macroeconomic environment, with significant growth in tourism and cultural sectors during the New Year period, alongside notable increases in inbound and outbound travel demand [2][9] - The technology hardware and certain industrial raw materials continue to see price increases, driven by trends in the AI industry and tight supply in chemical and non-ferrous materials [2][9] - The real estate and durable goods sectors remain under pressure, with weak demand in the real estate construction chain [2][9] Group 2: Tourism and Travel - During the 2026 New Year holiday (January 1-3), daily cross-regional personnel flow in China reached 198 million, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, with daily inbound and outbound travel averaging 2.205 million, up 28.6% year-on-year [3][10] - Domestic daily tourism participation and revenue increased by 5.2% and 6.3% respectively compared to the 2024 New Year holiday, with average spending per person rising by 1.1% [3][10] - The improvement in tourism demand is attributed to optimized service supply and the implementation of vacation policies, as well as enhanced inbound travel policies [3][10] Group 3: Downstream Consumption - The price of live pigs increased by 3.9% as of December 28, driven by improved downstream demand due to New Year stocking [4][11] - In 30 major cities, the transaction area of commercial housing decreased by 26.0% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities seeing declines of 31.8%, 14.0%, and 45.5% respectively [4][11] - The average daily retail of passenger cars fell by 12% year-on-year, indicating a continued decline in the automotive circulation industry [4][11] Group 4: Technology and Manufacturing - The electronic industry remains buoyant, with AI infrastructure investments driving growth; as of January 2, the average spot prices for DRAM memory (DDR3, DDR4, DDR5) increased by 2.6%, 6.0%, and 7.1% respectively [5][12] - Chemical raw material prices are showing mixed performance, with PX prices rising by 6.4% while PTA prices fell by 0.3%; lithium carbonate prices increased by 5.9% due to supply concerns [5][12] - Coal prices stabilized with a 0.9% increase, while industrial metal prices continued to rise due to supply disruptions and expectations of interest rate cuts [5][12] Group 5: Company Announcements - The report discusses Zhongxin Co., Ltd. (603091) planning to establish a wholly-owned manufacturing base in the U.S., with an investment of up to $36 million for a project producing 20,000 tons of pulp molded tableware annually [13][14] - The company maintains its earnings forecast, projecting EPS of 3.32, 5.65, and 7.37 yuan for 2025-2027, and sets a target price of 99.68 yuan, maintaining an "Accumulate" rating [13][14] - The company is focusing on enhancing its supply chain resilience and expanding its overseas production capacity to adapt to market demands [14][15]

Core Insights - The report indicates a notable recovery in movie ticket prices, alongside strong performance in metals and memory storage prices, suggesting an overall improvement in industry sentiment, particularly in resource products, midstream manufacturing, and information technology sectors [1][5]. Resource Products - The average transaction volume of construction steel has increased, with both steel billet and rebar prices rising. Coal prices have shown mixed trends, with some regions experiencing price increases while others see inventory fluctuations. The national cement price index has also risen [2][24]. - Industrial metal prices have generally increased, with copper, nickel, aluminum, tin, cobalt, and lead prices rising, while zinc prices have decreased. Most inventories have increased, particularly for zinc and tin [2][21]. Information Technology - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index have both risen, indicating a positive trend in the semiconductor sector. The prices of DDR4 and DDR5 DRAM memory have increased, reflecting strong demand in the market [5][25]. - The telecommunications sector has seen a three-month rolling year-on-year increase in main business revenue, suggesting robust growth in this area [5][24]. Midstream Manufacturing - Prices in the new energy supply chain have generally increased, with the photovoltaic price index also showing a week-on-week rise. The production of metal forming machine tools has seen a significant year-on-year increase, while the production of packaging equipment has declined [5][22]. - Port cargo throughput and container throughput have shown a narrowing year-on-year increase, indicating a potential slowdown in logistics activity [5][22]. Consumer Demand - Prices for fresh milk have risen, while the comprehensive price of sugar has decreased. Pork prices have increased, but the wholesale price of piglets has declined. The average price of live pigs has also decreased, indicating mixed trends in the livestock sector [5][18]. - The ten-day average box office revenue has increased, and movie ticket prices have risen, reflecting a recovery in consumer spending in the entertainment sector [5][20]. Financial and Real Estate - The monetary market has seen a net absorption of liquidity, with a decline in A-share turnover rate and daily transaction volume. The transaction area of commercial housing has increased, while the listing price index for second-hand houses has decreased [6][29]. Public Utilities - The ex-factory price of natural gas in China has decreased, while UK natural gas futures prices have risen. The average daily power generation of key power plants has shown a widening year-on-year decline [6][32].

Group 1: Food and Beverage Industry - The report emphasizes prioritizing growth while focusing on undervalued traditional consumer leaders with strong long-term growth certainty, particularly in the soft drink sector, where companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage show increased valuation attractiveness [1][4] - Recommendations include growth-oriented and stable targets in the liquor sector, such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai, alongside structural high-growth beverage companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [2] - The snack and food raw material sectors are highlighted for growth opportunities, with companies like Bailing Chuangyuan and Three Squirrels recommended for investment [2] Group 2: Strategy and Market Trends - The AI industry continues to show high prosperity, with demand for high-end storage devices like DRAM DDR4 increasing, driven by ongoing AI infrastructure investments [5][7] - Service consumption has seen a significant year-on-year increase, with notable improvements in tourism and entertainment sectors, indicating a shift towards light consumption types [6] - The real estate and durable goods sectors are experiencing a marginal decline in prosperity, with industrial metal prices rising significantly due to global supply dynamics [5][6] Group 3: Biopharmaceuticals - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kefu Medical, highlighting a strong revenue growth of 30.72% in Q3 2025, with a focus on improving operational efficiency in its hearing aid business [9][10]

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2025 年 12 月 10 日 11 月 CPI 同比增幅扩大，各类挖机、装载机销量同比改善 ——行业景气观察（1210） 本周景气度改善的方向主要在部分资源品、消费服务和信息技术领域。上游资源 品中，金属价格多数上涨，水泥价格改善；中游制造领域，11 月各类挖掘机、装 载机销量三个月滚动同比增幅扩大。信息技术中，11 月集成电路进口、出口同比 增幅扩大，10 月全球半导体销售额同比增幅扩大。消费服务领域，11 月服装、 鞋类 CPI 同比增幅扩大，中药材价格上涨。11 月 CPI 同比增幅扩大，PPI 降幅 略有扩大，"反内卷"政策持续推动供给出清。推荐景气较高或有改善的有色、 建材、工程机械、中药、纺织服饰、造纸、存储器、集成电路等。 ❑【本周关注】11 月 CPI 同比增幅扩大，PPI 降幅略有扩大，"反内卷"政策持续 推动供给出清，PPI 回暖趋势不变。细分项目中：1）受极端天气与季节性供应收 缩驱动，鲜菜鲜果价格同比转正，为 CPI 回暖贡献主要增量，粮食、奶类、酒类、 畜肉类降幅均有不同程度收窄；2）受换季需求提振，服装鞋帽价格改善，旅游、 教育、交通工具等出行消 ...

Group 1 - Recent adjustments in the A-share market are primarily due to weak domestic economic data, a strong US dollar index, year-end performance pressures, and a cautious funding environment [2][4][50] - The key signals for market stabilization will come from the political bureau meeting and the central economic work conference scheduled for December, which are expected to provide strong expansionary policies [5][50][51] - The market is likely to remain in a data and policy vacuum in the short term, but there is potential for a rebound in the first quarter of the following year, with a high probability of reaching new highs [6][51] Group 2 - The performance of technology stocks may lag behind large-cap blue-chip and financial cyclical stocks during this period, with a focus on cyclical resource price increases, service consumption, and self-sufficiency as the main investment themes [6][51] - The A-share market has shown a significant adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 3.9% and the CSI 300 Index falling 3.8% in a single week, marking the largest weekly decline since April [7][50] - The small-cap stocks have faced increased pressure as they approach the performance disclosure period, leading to a notable underperformance compared to larger indices [20][21][50]

Core Insights - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive year-on-year at 0.2%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrowing decline of 2.1%, indicating a recovery trend in prices driven by improved consumer demand and supply-side adjustments [12][23][24] - The "anti-involution" policy continues to promote supply clearance, leading to price improvements in key sectors such as coal, new energy, and automotive industries [20][23] Industry Overview Resource Sector - Prices for most metals and coal have increased, contributing to a positive outlook for the resource sector [1][20] - The PPI for coal mining and washing narrowed its decline to -15.6%, while the PPI for non-metallic mining improved to a growth of 2.1% [20][24] Information Technology - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index remained stable, while the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index declined by 2.15%. The DXI Index increased by 36.37% [25][26] - The import and export values of integrated circuits showed a rolling year-on-year decline, indicating a mixed performance in the semiconductor sector [25][26] Midstream Manufacturing - The prices across the new energy supply chain have generally risen, with significant increases in the prices of lithium raw materials and electrolytic nickel [20][24] - The production and sales of automobiles showed a rolling year-on-year decline, while new energy vehicle production increased by 21.37% [20][24] Consumer Services - The prices of fresh vegetables and fruits improved, contributing positively to the CPI, while the prices of pork and liquor continued to exert downward pressure [14][15][23] - The tourism and medical service sectors saw price increases due to heightened consumer demand during the holiday season [15][23] Financial and Real Estate - The monetary market experienced a net withdrawal, with a decline in A-share turnover rates and daily transaction volumes [24] - The land transaction premium rates and the area of commodity housing transactions both decreased, indicating a cooling real estate market [24] Public Utilities - The ex-factory price of natural gas in China decreased, and the average daily power generation of key power plants showed a widening year-on-year decline [24][32]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records primarily discuss the **A-share market** and various **industries** including **technology**, **pharmaceuticals**, **military**, **insurance**, and **consumer goods**. Core Points and Arguments Market Trends and Economic Outlook - The A-share market has seen a cumulative increase of over **20%** since late June, with main sectors performing even better, although there is a need to be cautious of profit-taking and potential risks [1][5] - The domestic capacity cycle is approaching a turning point, and combined with anti-involution policies, there is an expectation of upward profit elasticity from year-end to next year [1][5] - The overall funding environment remains positive, with a shift of household savings towards equity markets due to low deposit rates and low returns from real estate investments [5] Sector-Specific Insights - The **pan-technology sector** is entering an earnings disclosure period in October, facing pressure from price-performance ratios [3][4] - The **AI industry** is experiencing accelerated trends, benefiting certain segments despite a decline in the overseas computing supply chain's component performance [3][8] - The **pharmaceutical industry** is showing signs of recovery, particularly in innovative drugs and medical devices, with a **45%** year-on-year increase in global pharmaceutical investment in Q3 [9][10] - The **military and aerospace sectors** have shown significant improvement in data, with notable increases in revenue for key companies [9] - The **insurance sector** has seen a rebound in premium income and stable growth in property insurance, with investment returns performing well since September 2024 [10] Consumer Goods Recovery - The recovery in consumer goods is gradual, with improvements noted in essential and mass consumer products such as dairy, dining condiments, and beauty care [7] - The retail price of milk has turned positive year-on-year, indicating a stabilization in the consumer goods sector [7] Investment Recommendations - Suggested investment strategies include diversifying portfolios while focusing on sectors with strong performance potential such as **AI**, **semiconductors**, **upstream materials**, and **communication equipment** [5][11] - Caution is advised regarding the uncertainties stemming from US-China trade tensions, with recommendations to hold gold as a neutral option and consider low-beta dividend stocks for more cautious strategies [5] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The **TMT sector** has shown a slight decline in sentiment over the past three months, but strong demand persists in certain areas like communication equipment and data centers [3][8] - The **engineering machinery** and **building materials** sectors are showing signs of recovery, with notable increases in sales data during traditionally slow months [6] - The overall industry and non-financial industry sentiment indices have declined, but there are still strong upward trends in specific sectors like AI and resource materials [6]

Core Insights - The recent escalation of the US-China supply chain and tariff conflict is a continuation of trade frictions since 2018, and it is not a new negative factor for the A-share market. Historical experience shows that such shocks often create phase low points and investment opportunities [2][6][10] - Compared to the tariff shock in April this year, the current market has more favorable conditions, including investor expectations of tariff threats and stronger market resilience due to key resistance levels being surpassed [4][10] - Short-term adjustments are inevitable, but the market still shows resilience, with the potential for new highs after the shock ends. This adjustment may serve as an opportunity to optimize the investment structure [2][10] Industry and Company Analysis - The classic response strategy to the US-China conflict emphasizes self-sufficiency and domestic circulation, suggesting a focus on sectors with relatively low positions and marginal improvements, such as military industry, semiconductors, software self-sufficiency, new consumption, and non-ferrous metals [2][10] - The current market sentiment is bolstered by a stronger willingness of residents to invest, increased protective actions from important institutional investors, and accelerated trends in new industries like artificial intelligence and semiconductors, which provide long-term value during corrections [4][10] - The average guarantee ratio in the market has significantly improved from 261% in April to 287%, enhancing the market's ability to withstand downturns despite a larger scale of financing [4][9][10] - The recent market dynamics indicate that sectors such as gold, copper, cobalt, photovoltaic batteries, lithium battery equipment, wind power, semiconductors, and automotive are experiencing improvements or high levels of prosperity [4][10]