TS-T —— TF-T 注教也公众 | 贵金属期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【 2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年10月10日 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 国内期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品中 | 10月9日 | 9月29日 | 涨跌 | 张联帽 | 单位 | | AU2512合约 | 914.32 | 866.52 | 47.80 | 5.52% | 7L/52 | | AG2512合约 | 11169 | 10939 | 230 | 2.10% | 元/千克 | | 外盘期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品种 | 10月9日 | 10月8日 | 张浩 | 张跃幅 | 单位 | | COMEX黄金主力合约 | 3991.10 | 4060.60 | -69.50 | -1.71% | 美元/盎司 | | COMEX白银主力合约 | 47.66 | 48.44 | -0.78 | -1.62% | | | 现货价格 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views The reports mainly present the daily data of various futures, including price differences, spreads, ratios, and related economic indicators, without explicitly stating a unified core view. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Price Differences**: The latest values and changes of F, IH, IC, and IM futures price differences are provided, along with their historical 1 - year and full - history quantiles [1]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures, such as the spreads between the next month and the current month, the far month and the current month, etc., are presented, including their changes and quantiles [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios of various futures varieties, such as the ratio of IC to IF, IC to IH, etc., are given, along with their changes and quantiles [1]. 3.2 Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **IRR and Basis**: The implied repo rate (IRR) and basis of TS, TF, T, and TL bond futures are provided, including their latest values, changes, and percentiles since listing [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL bond futures, such as the spreads between the current quarter and the next quarter, are presented, along with their changes and percentiles [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Cross - variety spreads between different bond futures, such as the spread between TS and TF, are given, along with their changes and percentiles [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metals futures, as well as spot prices, are provided, including their changes and percentage changes [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of precious metals, such as the difference between gold TD and Shanghai gold futures, is presented, along with its changes and historical 1 - year quantiles [4]. - **Ratios, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates**: Ratios of gold to silver, interest rates of US Treasury bonds, the US dollar index, and the offshore RMB exchange rate are given, along with their changes and percentage changes [4]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Inventories and positions of precious metals in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX are provided, including their changes and percentage changes [4]. 3.4 Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot Quotes**: Spot quotes of shipping companies on the Shanghai - Europe route are provided, including their changes and percentage changes [6]. - **Shipping Indexes**: Settlement price indexes, Shanghai export container freight rates, etc., are presented, including their changes and percentage changes [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of container shipping futures and their basis are given, including their changes and percentage changes [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, export amounts, and overseas economic indicators are provided, including their changes and percentage changes [6]. 3.5 Trading Calendar - **Overseas Data/Information**: Economic indicators and financial events in the eurozone and the US, such as the eurozone's CPI, US manufacturing PMI, etc., are presented, along with their release times and data sources [7]. - **Domestic Data/Information**: Economic indicators and financial events in China, such as manganese ore inventory, port inventory, etc., are provided, along with their release times and data sources [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views There are no explicit core views presented in the reports. The reports mainly offer data on various futures and spot markets, including price changes, spreads, and inventory levels. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report** - **Price Spreads**: Presents current values, changes from the previous day, 1 - year historical percentiles, and all - time percentiles for various stock index futures spreads such as IF, IH, IC, and IM. For example, the IF term - current spread is 19.60% with a change of - 22.69, and the 1 - year percentile is 13.51% [1]. - **Cross - Period Spreads**: Details include the differences between different contract months like next month - current month, far month - current month, etc. For instance, the next month - current month spread of IF is - 7.80 with a change of 5.60 and a 1 - year percentile of 34.40% [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Provides ratios such as the CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., along with their changes and percentiles. For example, the IC/IF ratio is 1.4901 with a change of - 0.0225 and a 1 - year percentile of 63.10% [1]. **Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report** - **Basis and IRR**: Lists the basis and implied repo rate (IRR) for different treasury bond futures like TS, TF, T, and TL. For example, the TS basis is 1.6630 with a change of - 0.0146 and an IRR percentile of 27.60% [2]. - **Cross - Period Spreads**: Gives the spreads between different contract quarters. For instance, the current quarter - next quarter spread of TS is - 0.0620 with a change of 0.0160 and a percentile of 13.50% [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Presents spreads between different treasury bond futures varieties such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc. For example, the TS - TF spread is - 3.6050 with a change of - 0.0290 and a percentile of 6.60% [2]. **Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report** - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Shows domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, and their changes and percentage changes for gold and silver. For example, the AU2510 contract closed at 776.28 yuan/gram on July 17, down 0.05% from the previous day [4]. - **Basis**: Provides the basis between different gold and silver contracts, including their current values, changes, and historical percentiles. For example, the gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis is - 5.36 with a change of - 0.90 and a 1 - year percentile of 1.60% [4]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Details inventory levels and changes in inventory for domestic and foreign exchanges, as well as ETF positions. For example, the SHFE gold inventory is 28872 kg, unchanged from the previous day [4]. **Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report** - **Spot Quotes**: Displays spot quotes for container shipping from Shanghai to Europe by different shipping companies. For example, the MAERSK quote is 3066 dollars/FEU, unchanged from the previous day [6]. - **Container Shipping Indexes**: Presents settlement price indexes for different routes such as the SCFIS (European route) and SCFIS (US West route), along with their changes and percentage changes. For example, the SCFIS (European route) settled at 2421.94, up 7.26% from July 7 [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Provides futures prices and basis for container shipping contracts. For example, the EC2602 contract closed at 1485.7, up 1.52% from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract is 989.8, up 18.34% [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Includes information on container shipping capacity supply, foreign trade - related indicators, and overseas economic data. For example, the global container shipping capacity supply is 3271.40 million TEU, unchanged from the previous day [6]. **Overseas and Domestic Data/Information Report** - **Overseas Data**: Lists economic indicators and financial events in the eurozone and the US, such as the eurozone May seasonally - adjusted current account and the US July one - year inflation rate expectation [8]. - **Domestic Data**: Covers various domestic economic indicators for different industries including agriculture, black and non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, and special commodities. For example, for the polyester industry, Asian/China PX operating rate and downstream polyester product inventory are reported [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports - The reports present a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and shipping industry futures on June 24, 2025. They cover aspects such as price differences, basis, yields, exchange rates, and fundamental data, providing investors with a multi - dimensional view of market conditions [1][2][5][8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Differences**: The report provides the price differences of various contracts such as IF, IH, IC, and IM, including spot - futures price differences, inter - period price differences, and cross - variety ratios. For example, the IF spot - futures price difference is - 60.50, with a change of 12.54 compared to the previous day [1]. - **Historical Percentiles**: It also shows the historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles of these price differences, which can help investors understand the relative position of current price differences in history [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis and IRR**: The basis and implied repo rate (IRR) of TS, TF, T, and TL are presented. For instance, the TS basis is 1.8674, with a change of - 0.0681 compared to the previous day, and the IRR percentile is 43.20% [2]. - **Inter - period and Cross - variety Price Differences**: Inter - period price differences and cross - variety price differences are also provided, such as the TS inter - period price difference between the next quarter and the current quarter is - 0.2380 [2]. Precious Metal Futures - **Prices and Changes**: The domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, and ratios of gold and silver are reported. For example, the AU2508 contract closed at 781.30 yuan/gram on June 23, with a gain of 0.35% [5]. - **Yields and Exchange Rates**: The yields of US Treasury bonds and exchange rates such as the US dollar index and offshore RMB exchange rate are also included, which can affect the prices of precious metals [5]. Shipping Industry Futures - **Spot Quotes**: The spot quotes of shipping companies such as MAERSK, CMA, and MSC are provided, along with the changes in shipping rates. For example, the MAERSK shipping rate decreased by 3.31% from June 23 to June 24 [8]. - **Index and Futures Prices**: The settlement price indices of shipping routes and the prices of shipping futures contracts are reported, as well as the basis of the main contract [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on global container运力 supply, port - related indicators, overseas economic indicators, and OECD leading indicators are presented, which can help analyze the fundamentals of the shipping industry [9]. Data and Information - **Overseas Data**: Economic indicators such as the US first - quarter current account and June consumer confidence index are provided [11]. - **Domestic Data**: Economic indicators and events related to black and non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and special commodities in the domestic market are reported, such as port inventories of iron ore and manganese ore [11].

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical 1 - year and all - time quantiles of stock index futures spreads, including IF, IH, IC, IM, and cross - variety ratios [1] - **Summary by Catalog**: - **Spot - Futures Spread**: IF's is - 30.20, down 1.29; IH's is - 16.68, down 1.66; IC's is - 74.15, up 0.72; IM's is - 93.46, up 10.33 [1] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Different delivery month spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented, with various changes and quantiles [1] - **Cross - Variety Ratio**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., are given, along with their changes and quantiles [1] Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Displays the latest values, changes from the previous day, and quantiles since listing of treasury bond futures spreads, including TS, TF, T, TL, and cross - variety spreads [4] - **Summary by Catalog**: - **Basis**: IRR and basis values for TS, TF, T, and TL are presented [4] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Spreads between different delivery months for TS, TF, T, and TL are shown, with corresponding changes and quantiles [4] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Spreads between different treasury bond futures varieties are given, along with their changes and quantiles [4] Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Shows domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals [8] - **Summary by Catalog**: - **Domestic and Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: AU2508 contract is down 0.73%, AG2508 contract is down 0.76%; COMEX gold is down 1.73%, COMEX silver is down 0.76% [8] - **Spot Prices**: London gold, London silver, Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D, and silver T + D all show declines [8] - **Basis**: Basis values and their changes for gold and silver are presented, along with historical 1 - year quantiles [8] - **Ratio**: Ratios of COMEX gold/silver, SHFE gold/silver are given, with their changes and percentage changes [8] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields decline, while the US dollar index rises [8] - **Inventory and Positions**: Some inventories change slightly, and ETF positions remain unchanged [8] Group 4: Container Shipping Index - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Provides settlement price indices, Shanghai export container freight rates, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry [12] - **Summary by Catalog**: - **Settlement Price Index**: SCFIS (European route) is down 1.44%, SCFIS (US West route) is up 18.90% [12] - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Rate**: SCFI composite index, SCFI (Europe), SCFI (US West), and SCFI (US East) all show increases [12] - **Futures Price and Basis**: Futures prices of different contracts change, and the basis of the main contract decreases by 7.16% [12] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply is stable, Shanghai port's on - time rate and berthing situation decline, and some overseas economic indicators change [12] Group 5: Domestic Data/Information - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Lists domestic economic indicators and financial events in different sectors, including black and non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, and special commodities [17] - **Summary by Catalog**: - **Black and Non - ferrous Metals**: Steel Union's weekly survey of 523 mine production and sales for coking coal and coke [17] - **Energy and Chemicals**: China's port commercial crude oil inventory data from Longzhong Information [17] - **Special Commodities**: Glass sales rate and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory [17] Group 6: Capital Flow and Key Position Changes - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The report title mentions capital flow and key position changes, but specific content is incomplete and unavailable for detailed summary [19]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the context of the expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the significant impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies on the US dollar's credit, the gold price has been strong. Since the beginning of 2025 (from January 2 to April 25), the price of the COMEX gold main contract has risen by 26.1%, reaching a record high of $3,509.9 per ounce. Meanwhile, the US tariff policies and the Fed's persistently tight monetary policy stance have pressured the silver price, which has significantly underperformed gold. Currently, the gold - silver ratio is at a relatively high level. After the easing of the impact on the Fed's independence, the Fed has signaled a loose monetary policy. Around the Fed's June interest - rate meeting, the silver price may start a catch - up rally [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2010 QE2 Monetary Policy Expectations and the Rise of Silver Price to a Record High - After the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, the significant rise of the silver price was often macro - driven by the "accelerated" release of the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations, with the breakdown of the gold - silver ratio as the starting point on the trading chart. Before the start of the silver rally in early August 2010, the market's main expectation for the Fed's monetary policy was the implementation of the second round of quantitative easing (QE2). The Fed continuously cut interest rates after the September 18, 2007, interest - rate meeting, and the upper bound of the federal funds rate target was lowered from 5.25% to 0.25% after the December 16, 2008, meeting. The Fed's balance sheet expanded from $905.2 billion in early September 2008 to $2,325.3 billion in early August 2010 [4]. - In early June 2010, Fed Chairman Bernanke testified in the House Financial Committee, indicating that the US economic recovery faced significant risks and that the Fed would maintain policy flexibility and take action if necessary. This was his first indication of possible additional loose policies after the end of the first round of quantitative easing. The US dollar index rose from April to June 2010 due to the weak euro after the European debt crisis, reaching a peak on June 7 and then falling 6.02% to 83.15 by the end of August. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell from 4.01% on April 5, 2010, to 2.58% in mid - August. By the end of August 2010, both the Fed officials' statements and the trends of the US Treasury yield and the US dollar index pointed to further loose monetary policy on the balance - sheet level (the possibility of lowering the policy rate to negative was low). At the Jackson Hole central bank symposium at the end of August 2010, Bernanke confirmed the implementation of QE2 [5]. - After Bernanke's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, the gold - silver ratio broke down at the end of the triangular convergence, and the COMEX silver price rose after breaking through the convergence. From August 27, 2010, to April 29, 2011, the price of the COMEX silver main contract rose 156% to $48.6 per ounce, reaching a record high of $49.8 per ounce [6]. 3.2 2020 Pandemic Shock and the Concentrated Release of the Fed's Loose Monetary Policy - In March 2020, due to the large - scale community spread of the COVID - 19 in the US, the Fed under Powell's leadership implemented emergency interest - rate cuts. On March 15, 2020, the Fed lowered the interest rate to 0% - 0.25% and restarted quantitative easing, promising to buy at least $700 billion of Treasury bonds and MBS per month. In the May 19, 2020, interest - rate meeting, the Fed maintained the interest rate at 0% - 0.25% and emphasized that the interest rate would remain low for a long time [11]. - The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell from 1.86% on January 9, 2020, to 0.66% on June 30, 2020, due to the safe - haven drive of the pandemic and the Fed's loose stance. The US dollar index, which was strong at the beginning of the pandemic due to safe - haven factors, fell 5.1% from 102.7 on March 20 to 97.4 on June 30. By the end of June 2020, the Fed had implemented loose monetary policies in terms of both interest rates and the balance sheet, which were reflected in the 10 - year US Treasury yield and the US dollar index. In early July 2020, the gold - silver ratio formed a bear flag decline continuation pattern, and the COMEX silver main contract price had recovered from the low level and showed an ascending triangle pattern. In the July 2020 Fed interest - rate meeting, Powell emphasized the severe situation of the US economy and the need for monetary and fiscal policy support. The gold - silver ratio broke down the flag surface in July and reached 72.1 in early August. From June 30 to August 10, 2020, the price of the COMEX silver main contract rose 62% to $29.2 per ounce [12]. 3.3 Current Fed's Monetary Policy Stance Change and the Expected Repetition of the "Script" of Accelerated Loose Expectations - The Trump administration's radical tariff policies have increased the risk of a US economic recession and pushed up inflation. After the new US administration took office, Powell and other Fed officials took a hawkish stance. After the sharp correction of the US stock market on April 17, Powell was still cautious about interest - rate cuts, stating that the Fed would not conduct "market - rescue" operations. Trump criticized the Fed's monetary policy, and there were discussions about "removing Powell." However, at the end of April, Trump changed his attitude, and the US Treasury Secretary explained that Trump's remarks might refer to the end of Powell's term. Subsequently, Fed officials' attitudes changed, indicating that there was room for loose monetary policy in the second half of the year. Fed Governor Waller took a dovish stance, and Cleveland Fed President Harker was more explicit about the possible adjustment time of monetary policy [14][17]. - From February 3 to April 25, 2025, the US dollar index fell 8.8% from 109.2 to 99.6, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell from 4.51% to 4.24%. These declines reflected the market's expectation of a US economic recession and the selling of US dollar assets. The CME interest - rate observer shows that the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the June, September, October, and December interest - rate meetings, with the terminal interest - rate range reaching 3.25% - 3.50% at the end of the year [18]. - Currently, the gold - silver ratio is at a high level above 100 and is gradually forming a top pattern. The COMEX silver main contract price has rebounded after the release of the negative impact of tariffs, showing a strong technical pattern. Attention should be paid to Powell's speech. Around the June interest - rate meeting, as the tariff policies have a substantial impact on the US economy, especially the labor market, Powell may gradually express his stance on interest - rate cuts. The breakdown of the gold - silver ratio will be the starting point of the silver rally, and the international silver price is expected to reach a record high [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the reports. Core Views - The reports present daily data on various futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and industrial futures, such as prices, spreads, and related economic indicators, to help investors understand market trends and price movements [1][2][4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spread - **Price Difference Data**: Provides price differences and their changes for IF, IH, IC, and IM futures, including spot - futures spreads and inter - period spreads, along with historical percentile data [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Presents cross - variety ratios such as CSI 500/Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, IC/IF, etc., and their historical percentile data [1]. Treasury Bond Futures Spread - **Basis and IRR**: Displays basis and IRR data for TS, TF, T, and TL treasury bond futures, along with their changes and historical percentiles [2]. - **Inter - Period Spreads**: Provides inter - period spreads for different maturities of TS, TF, T, and TL futures, and their changes and historical percentiles [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Presents cross - variety spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., and their changes and historical percentiles [2]. Precious Metal Futures and Spot - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Shows domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, and their changes and price change rates for gold and silver [4]. - **Basis and Ratios**: Provides basis data for gold and silver, as well as price ratios such as COMEX gold/silver and SHFE gold/silver, and their historical percentiles [4]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Inventories**: Displays data on 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, 10 - year TIPS Treasury yields, US dollar index, offshore RMB exchange rate, and inventory and position data for gold and silver [4]. Industrial Futures and Spot - **Spot Quotes**: Presents spot quotes for shipping companies on the Shanghai - Europe route and their changes and price change rates [7]. - **Shipping Indexes**: Displays settlement price indexes for shipping routes, Shanghai export container freight rates, and their changes and price change rates [7]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Provides futures prices and their changes and price change rates for EC contracts, as well as basis data for the main contract [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: Includes data on global container shipping capacity supply, Red Sea detour situation, foreign trade - related indicators, overseas economic indicators, and OECD composite leading indicators [7]. Data and Information Calendar - **Overseas Data/Information**: Lists macro - economic data and energy - chemical data for the US, including time, data sources, and economic indicators [9]. - **Domestic Data/Information**: Presents data on energy - chemical, black - nonferrous, and special commodities in China, including time, data sources, and economic indicators [9].