要完成这一目标，特斯拉必须完成商业模式的根本转型——从卖产品到卖服务、从一次性收入转变为获 取持续性收入。这意味着特斯拉必须成为"车轮上的苹果"：汽车硬件只是入口，真正的价值在于其构建 的出行服务生态。薪酬方案锚定的"四大目标"看似独立，实则构成了一个相互强化的生态系统。在这一 系统中，每一辆特斯拉汽车都是潜在的数据采集终端和自动驾驶节点；FSD的技术积累可以复用到 Robotaxi和人形机器人；机器人的感知和决策算法又能反哺自动驾驶。这种技术和数据的交叉复用，创 造了传统汽车企业无法企及的协同价值。除此之外，一旦用户习惯了特斯拉的操作系统、充电网络、服 务体系，转换成本将非常高。特斯拉正在构建类似苹果iOS的封闭生态，通过软件、数据、服务形成强 大的锁定效应。 （马斯克。资料图） 高廷帆（首都经济贸易大学经济学院副教授、中国商业经济学会理事） 当地时间11月6日，特斯拉董事会向马斯克抛出的万亿美元薪酬方案，不仅刷新了全球企业薪酬纪录， 更是一场关于创新型企业治理模式的激进实验。这份为期十年的对赌协议，要求特斯拉市值从1.1万亿 美元攀升至8.5万亿美元、年利润达到4000亿美元，同时在汽车、FSD（完全自动 ...

Core Insights - Musk's trillion-dollar compensation plan represents a milestone in business history, serving as an experiment in innovative corporate governance and a potential paradigm shift in the industry [1][5] - The plan requires Tesla to achieve a market value increase from $1.1 trillion to $8.5 trillion and an annual profit of $400 billion, alongside breakthroughs in four core business areas: automotive, FSD, Robotaxi, and humanoid robots [1][2] Group 1: Compensation Plan Details - The ten-year performance-based agreement is not merely a salary incentive but a blueprint for value creation and valuation logic in the digital economy [1] - Achieving the $400 billion annual profit target is unlikely through traditional vehicle sales alone, necessitating a fundamental shift in Tesla's business model [2] Group 2: Business Model Transformation - Tesla must transition from selling products to providing services, creating a sustainable revenue model akin to "Apple on wheels" [2] - The four targeted areas form an interdependent ecosystem, where each Tesla vehicle acts as a data collection node, enhancing the overall value through technology and data reuse [2] Group 3: Competitive Advantage - Tesla's competitive edge lies in its extensive real-world driving data network, having collected over 10 billion miles of autonomous driving data, which is significantly more than its competitors [2] - The exponential difference in data volume is expected to translate into superior algorithm performance, potentially enabling Tesla to achieve significant advancements [2] Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities - The agreement poses a daunting challenge for Tesla to simultaneously expand production, innovate core technologies, and increase profits, which traditionally conflict with one another [3] - China is identified as a crucial factor in overcoming these challenges, being the largest market for new energy vehicles and possessing a complete supply chain [3] Group 5: Entrepreneurial Spirit and Market Valuation - The compensation plan reflects the market's pricing experiment for "super entrepreneur spirit," recognizing the unique vision and risk tolerance of founder-type entrepreneurs like Musk [4] - At least 50% of Tesla's trillion-dollar market value is attributed to the "Musk premium," indicating that the market is betting on the potential for transformative change rather than current performance [4] Group 6: Implications for Chinese Enterprises - Tesla's compensation scheme offers valuable insights for Chinese companies on balancing innovation and risk while maintaining entrepreneurial spirit within corporate governance [5] - The plan raises questions about how innovative companies can design incentive mechanisms that promote industry revolutions and long-term value creation [5]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the true business model of autonomous vehicles lies in providing transportation services rather than selling vehicles, as highlighted by the CEO of New Stone Autonomous Vehicles, Yu Enyuan [1][6]. Company Overview - New Stone Autonomous Vehicles has achieved a significant milestone by delivering its 10,000th vehicle, marking the world's first fleet of autonomous delivery vehicles at this scale, indicating a major leap from technology validation to large-scale commercialization [1][6]. - The company has reported achieving monthly profitability and aims to produce profitable products without engaging in price wars [1][8]. Market Dynamics - The autonomous vehicle sector is experiencing intense competition driven by price, as many players enter the market to capture market share, which is seen as an early-stage behavior in the industry [1][6]. - The company has become the largest supplier of autonomous delivery vehicles for major logistics firms, capturing over 90% of the orders from SF Express, JD.com, and China Post, and over 70% from other platforms [2][6]. Technological and Regulatory Factors - The growth of the autonomous delivery vehicle market is attributed to advancements in AI technology, decreasing costs of core sensors, and increasing market demand, with 2025 expected to be a pivotal year for explosive growth in this sector [3][5]. - The opening of road rights in over 200 cities across the country is facilitating the expansion of autonomous vehicle applications [3][5]. Future Projections - The company anticipates delivering over 15,000 vehicles this year, with expectations of 30,000 units sold by 2025 and potentially 600,000 units by 2030, achieving an 18% market penetration [8][9]. - The CEO projects that the demand for autonomous vehicles will significantly increase, with expectations of 40,000 to 50,000 units in the next year, and over 100,000 units in subsequent years when including overseas markets [9][12]. Strategic Opportunities - The company sees substantial growth potential in instant logistics and urban delivery, with expectations that demand from these sectors will surpass that of the express delivery industry [14][15]. - The overseas market is viewed as a significant strategic opportunity, with the company recently obtaining the first license for autonomous delivery vehicles in the Middle East, indicating a move towards full commercialization in that region [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's stock price surged over 4% to $347.68, regaining a market capitalization of over $1 trillion, despite a significant decline in global sales, particularly for its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Tesla's stock price increased by more than 4%, closing at $347.68, with a total market value surpassing $1 trillion [1]. - The rise in stock price is attributed to a reassessment of Tesla's long-term strategy by the capital market, rather than short-term performance [3]. Group 2: Sales Performance - Tesla's global delivery volume in Q1 2025 was 336,700 units, a year-on-year decline of 13%, marking the worst quarterly performance since Q2 2022 [3]. - The production and delivery of Model 3 and Model Y totaled 345,400 units and 323,800 units respectively, down from 369,700 units in the same period last year [3]. Group 3: Future Plans and Challenges - Tesla plans to start importing Chinese components for its Cybercab and Semi models from the end of May 2025 [1]. - The company aims to trial its Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, starting in June 2025 [3]. - The production cost of the Cybercab is expected to be kept below $30,000, with mass production slated for 2027 [4]. Group 4: Regulatory and Technical Challenges - The NHTSA is set to investigate Tesla's Robotaxi system regarding its performance in low visibility conditions [4]. - Tesla's reliance on a pure vision-based system for its autonomous driving technology has raised concerns, especially in comparison to competitors using more advanced sensor configurations [5]. - The accident rate for Tesla vehicles with FSD was reported at 0.21 per million miles in 2023, a 32% decrease from 2022, but still lagging behind industry leaders like Waymo [5]. Group 5: Market Projections - Goldman Sachs predicts that Tesla's Robotaxi fleet will grow from 300 vehicles in 2026 to 1,500 by the end of 2027, with each vehicle expected to complete 15 to 20 services per day, generating an average revenue of $2.5 per mile [6].

Core Insights - The development of autonomous driving technology is proving to be more challenging than anticipated, with significant hurdles still to overcome after over a decade of efforts [1] - The most relevant benchmark in the industry remains Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, which is recognized for its unique technological advancements [1] - The true challenge of autonomous driving lies in its comparison to human driving capabilities, rather than competition with other companies [1] Group 1 - The speaker expresses a sense of despair regarding the slow progress in autonomous driving technology, despite the involvement of many intelligent individuals and substantial financial investment [1] - The speaker emphasizes that the primary comparison for autonomous driving should be human drivers, as achieving superiority over human capabilities is essential for the technology to be considered valuable [1] - There is a recognition of hope for future advancements as the technology has undergone several iterations, indicating potential improvements on the horizon [1] Group 2 - The speaker highlights specific challenges in the Chinese market, including the lack of computational power comparable to Tesla and the unpredictability of road infrastructure [1] - The behavior of delivery riders and electric vehicle operators in China presents unique challenges that complicate the development of autonomous driving solutions [1] - A call for the industry to return to rationality and focus on solving real problems rather than engaging in marketing gimmicks is made [1]

马斯克妥协？ 美国将没有竞业 台积电被美国员工选为最差雇主 关注《晚点财经》并设为星标，第一时间获取每日商业精华。 马斯克妥协？ 一个月前特斯拉新车涨价，打算倾注资源做无人驾驶出租车。一个月后特斯拉又降价，并承诺很快会有 更多的平价车 —— 反复之间，特斯拉 —— 或者说马斯克，在对市场妥协，并以这种方式换取继续做他 眼中不平庸产品的机会。 这种妥协极大缓解投资者对特斯拉的悲观预期，在报告了 2020 年二季度以来的首个收入下滑季度后， 因为马斯克的最新表态，特斯拉盘前股价跳涨 12%。 这将有望部分缓解特斯拉销量增长困境。今年一季度特斯拉销量下滑 8.5%、至 38.7 万辆车，连续两个 季度不及上年同期。供应链人士说，为了应对缩减的市场需求，特斯拉下调上海工厂生产目标，目前产 能利用率约为 60%。 为了逆转销量，特斯拉本周在中国、美国和欧洲对所有车型降价 2000 美元或等值货币。 马斯克认为，下一阶段特斯拉的主要增长动力将来自 FSD （完全自动驾驶系统）。用户可买断或者按月 支付费用以使用 FSD 。特斯拉近期也下调了 FSD 售价来促进销量。 他透露特斯拉正与一家大型车企讨论 FSD 功能的授权合 ...