最近在一档播客节目里，芝加哥交易和做市 公司DRW的创始人兼首席执行官 Don Wilson 提出一个惊人观点： 未来十年，全世 界在GPU上的花费，可能 会超过石油 。 【1】 乍一听，有点像科幻小说，但细想之下，并非没有道理。人工智能训练需要庞大的算力，而算力的核心资源就是GPU。今天的 H100 显卡，单价已经高达2 万美元以上，不少企业甚至要通过"抢货"才能拿到货源。就像石油驱动了20世纪的工业文明，GPU 可能正在成为21世纪的"燃料"。 这让我想到一个类比。石油是一种可以长期储存的资源，储存成本相对低；而 GPU 像是一种会贬值的"生鲜产品"，过几年就落伍。想象一下，如果菜市场 的土豆也有期货合约，你今天锁定未来三年的土豆价格，但明年土豆品种升级，口感更好、产量更大，你手里合约的价值可能就大幅缩水。GPU 金融化的 问题就在于此，它不是"黑金"，更像"土豆"，新旧更替的速度太快。 然而，市场的逻辑往往不会因为这些风险而停下脚步。对投机者来说，波动本身就是机会。就像美国有上百只比特币相关ETF，一些投机性极强的GPU产品 上市只是时间问题。到那时，我们或许会看到"算力指数期货"、"AI芯片ETF"， ...

两三年后，我也像许多同行一样，背起行囊，来到这个距离硅谷最遥远却最痴迷硅谷的城市。 那时的北京，是个野心外溢的地方。中关村一带的咖啡馆常常坐满了人，风投与创业者肩并肩地低声讨 论，时而摊开笔记本电脑演示个产品雏形，时而在纸巾上草拟一份股权结构。空气里夹杂着刚编译完的 代码气息与炒热过的估值焦虑。 那是个记者可以直接拨通创业者手机的年代。一些如今再也联络不到的大佬，那时还会主动请记者吃 饭，滔滔不绝地讲述他们的梦想。有时，讲得还太多了些。 你不知道第二天的发布会上，这家新公司会不会像新浪搜狐一样大获成功，也不知道一顿午餐能不能让 你预见一个产品或技术潮流的开端。 二十多年前，我从中国西部一所大学的新闻专业毕业，和大多数同学一样，进了地方报社，写稿、改 稿、熬夜，很快熟悉了中国新闻行业最底层的节奏。 但北京的吸引力始终存在。 2000年的互联网泡沫破灭，也没有熄灭信仰。我们一边目睹泡沫破裂带来的裁员和倒闭，一边又亲历了 移动互联网重新点燃的火焰。 曾几何时，还处于青春期的Facebook和谷歌，正在取代像Sun Microsystems这样的老牌公司，成为最酷 的工作场所。早会是在彩虹色豆袋椅上进行的，午餐是免费 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is facing significant challenges in the Chinese market due to security concerns related to its H20 graphics cards, which have been flagged for potential backdoor risks by U.S. authorities [1][4]. Group 1: Legislative Actions and Implications - U.S. lawmakers are advocating for advanced chips to be equipped with tracking capabilities, which has been incorporated into the proposed Chip Security Act [6][11]. - The Chip Security Act aims to implement location verification technology in chips to prevent them from being smuggled into restricted areas, particularly China [11][13]. - The act requires manufacturers to provide evidence of the chips' location and allows for remote disabling if they are found in prohibited regions [11][13]. Group 2: Impact on Nvidia - Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, is reportedly frustrated with the U.S. government's actions, which complicate the company's efforts to sell its H20 graphics cards in China [4][32]. - The implementation of the Chip Security Act could impose additional operational costs on Nvidia, estimated at around $1 million for software updates and between $2.5 million to $12.5 million annually for establishing a network of trusted landmark servers [30][31]. - The situation presents Nvidia as a victim of U.S. government policies rather than a perpetrator of wrongdoing, complicating its business prospects in China [32]. Group 3: Technological Aspects - The proposed location verification technology is based on a mature, hard-to-crack method known as Ping-based positioning, which could be implemented in existing AI chips [21][26]. - This technology allows for the calculation of distances between devices and servers, enabling location tracking without the need for GPS [24][26]. - The requirement for AI chips to send verification information to landmark servers could render them unusable if disconnected from the internet, raising concerns about operational feasibility [26][30]. Group 4: Industry Response and Future Outlook - The article suggests that the ongoing developments highlight the need for domestic innovation in chip technology, with companies like Huawei making strides in this area [34]. - The potential for the Chip Security Act to become ineffective hinges on the advancement of domestic alternatives, which could mitigate reliance on U.S. technology [34].