Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - A timing model can be applied to commodities, and the report models the most market - concerned gold and crude oil. The model is more suitable for medium - term band trading rather than intraday high - frequency trading [2]. - The gold timing model has a sample - out interval from March 2019 to now, with 61 correct intervals and 17 incorrect intervals, and an interval win - rate of 78.21%. The crude oil timing model has 52 correct intervals and 11 incorrect intervals in the same sample - out period, with an interval win - rate of 82.54% [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold Timing Model - In 2025, precious metals like gold and silver had a super - bull market. On January 20, 2026, the spot gold price exceeded $4700. The model aims to judge the future movement of gold in a complex macro - background. The target variable is COMEX gold due to its high liquidity and global - factor - dominated price [5]. - Factors include gold ETF holdings, ETF volatility, inventory, short and long positions, trading volume, global broad liquidity, other non - ferrous metal - related indicators, gold - copper ratio, gold - oil ratio, and COMEX gold futures technical indicators. After marginal processing of 196 original factors, there are 338 factors in total, and after screening, 138 daily - frequency, 27 weekly - frequency, and 25 monthly - frequency factors are retained [2][5]. - From March 2019 to now, the model has 61 correct intervals and 17 incorrect intervals with a 78.21% win - rate. Since the end of October 2025, the model has continuously output an upward view on gold [2][6]. 3.2 Crude Oil Timing Model - The target of the crude oil timing model is IPE Brent oil. Crude oil has relatively larger fluctuations and lower smoothness [8]. - Factors include the common factors with gold (such as gold - oil ratio and global liquidity), as well as different types of crude oil, different exchange crude oil, transportation index, Sino - US inventories, Chinese imports, US and OPEC production, crude oil ETF, refinery operating rate, futures positions, technical indicators, and zinc ingot price. After marginal processing of 281 original factors, there are 394 factors in total, and after screening, 133 daily - frequency, 22 weekly - frequency, and 45 monthly - frequency factors are retained [2][8]. - From March 2019 to now, the model has formed 52 correct intervals and 11 incorrect intervals, with an 82.54% win - rate. It was bullish from December 12, 2025, to January 9, 2026, and turned bearish on January 13, 2026 [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the US stock market has experienced a decline due to multiple factors, including concerns over high valuations in the artificial intelligence sector, a record-length government shutdown, and the absence of key economic data leading to confusion in expectations [2][8] - The report highlights that the current market expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is at 66.5% [2][8] - Key economic data for October shows that the ISM Manufacturing PMI is at 48.7, below expectations of 49.5, while the ADP employment number is at 42,000, exceeding expectations of 28,000 [2][8] Group 2 - The report tracks global major asset performance, noting that CBOT soybean oil has the highest increase at +2.08%, while the Nikkei 225 has the largest decline at -4.07% [3][34] - In the equity market, the Hang Seng Index shows the largest gain at +1.29%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index has the largest drop at -3.04% [3][37] - Sector performance indicates that the energy sector in the US has the highest increase at +1.49%, while the information technology sector has the largest decline at -4.43% [3][43] Group 3 - The report provides updates on global economic data, noting a rebound in the Eurozone industrial confidence index and an increase in the UK PMI [59][63] - The report also tracks important upcoming data releases, including the US October CPI and employment figures, which are expected to influence market expectations [68][71]

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant short-term pullback in gold prices, attributed to easing geopolitical tensions and fully priced expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, leading to profit-taking pressure after substantial prior gains [1][7][30] - The U.S. inflation data released by the Labor Department showed a year-on-year CPI increase of 3.0% for September, which was below market expectations of 3.1%, and a core CPI increase of 3.0%, also lower than expected [1][8][30] - The report notes that the economic data vacuum due to the government shutdown may persist, affecting the release of future inflation data [1][7] Group 2 - In the global equity markets, the report indicates mixed performance, with the South Korean index showing the highest gain at +5.14%, followed by the Shenzhen Composite Index at +4.73% and the Hang Seng Index at +3.62% [2][34] - The report details that the energy sector in the U.S. stock market saw a rise of +2.90%, while the consumer staples sector experienced a decline of -0.59% [41] - In the Hong Kong market, the energy sector also led gains at +5.26%, while the healthcare sector fell by -0.74% [41]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that market expectations for interest rate cuts have intensified, with the probability of a rate cut in September reaching 88.9% and a total of three cuts anticipated within the year [1][8][10] - Recent economic data has shown signs of weakening, with the ISM non-manufacturing PMI for July at 50.1, below previous values and forecasts, and initial jobless claims rising to 226,000, exceeding expectations [2][9][10] - The report highlights that the Nasdaq Composite Index reached a historical high, reflecting a positive trend in major equity markets, particularly in the materials sector, which saw significant gains [1][38][45] Group 2 - In the asset price section, major global asset classes exhibited mixed performance, with COMEX silver showing the highest increase at +4.43%, while NYMEX light crude oil experienced the largest decline at -5.11% [33][52] - The report notes that the U.S. equity market, particularly the materials sector, has shown strong performance, with the materials industry in the U.S. rising by 5.01% [38][45] - The foreign exchange market saw the Japanese yen appreciating by 1.54% against the RMB, while the ruble depreciated by 1.79% [46][48] Group 3 - The report provides updates on significant economic data, including the Eurozone consumer confidence index continuing to rise, and the UK manufacturing PMI showing an increase [63][71] - Japan's unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating stability in the labor market [74][76] - The report tracks important data releases for the upcoming week, including U.S. CPI data and other key economic indicators [78]