研究所： 证券分析师： 陈梦竹 S0350521090003 chenmz@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 陈重伊 S0350525010002 chency@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 智能手机与 IoT 业务短期承压，预计 2025Q4 经调整利润同比下滑 ——小米集团-W（1810.HK）2025Q4 前瞻点评 最近一年走势 2026 年 03 月 02 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) 《小米集团-W（1810.HK）2025Q2 财报点评：持 续"稳健进取"的核心经营策略，盈利再创历史新 高（增持）*消费电子*陈梦竹，陈重伊》—— 2025-08-21 《小米集团-W（1810.HK）2025Q1 财报点评：营 投资要点: 1、主要财务指标前瞻：我们预计小米集团 2025Q4 实现收入 1164 亿元， 同比增长 7%。其中，智能手机业务收入约 452 亿元，同比下滑 12%；IoT 与生活消费产品业务收入约 233 亿元，同比下滑 25%；智能电动汽车收 入约 380 亿元，同比增长 133%；互联网服务收入约 98 亿元，同比增长 5%。利润方面，预计小米集团 20 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's co-founder Lin Bin plans to sell up to $5 billion of Class B shares annually starting December 2026, with a total cap of $20 billion (approximately 140 billion RMB) [2][4]. Group 1: Shareholding and Selling Plan - Lin Bin's share sale proceeds will primarily fund the establishment of an investment fund company, indicating his confidence in Xiaomi's business prospects [4]. - Lin Bin holds approximately 1.835 billion Class B shares, representing about 8.56% of the company's issued share capital, valued at over $10 billion based on the latest market capitalization [5]. - In June of the previous year, Lin Bin sold 10 million shares for approximately 1.79 million HKD, with the proceeds allocated for charitable purposes, including a 100 million RMB donation to his alma mater, Sun Yat-sen University [5]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Since late September, Xiaomi's stock price has been on a downward trend, closing at 39.22 HKD per share on December 24, reflecting a cumulative decline of over 36% from its June peak of 61.45 HKD [6]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In Q3, Xiaomi reported revenue of 113.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of revenue exceeding 100 billion RMB [8]. - The adjusted net profit for Q3 was 11.3 billion RMB, up 80.9% year-on-year, with total revenue for the first three quarters reaching 340.4 billion RMB, nearing last year's total [8]. - The smartphone segment generated 46 billion RMB in Q3, maintaining a top-three global position with 43.3 million units shipped, marking nine consecutive quarters of year-on-year growth [8]. - The innovative business segment, including smart electric vehicles and AI, contributed 29 billion RMB in Q3, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 199%, and achieved a positive operating profit of 700 million RMB for the first time [8]. - The IoT and lifestyle products segment generated 27.6 billion RMB in Q3, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, with over 1 billion connected IoT devices on the platform [8].

Group 1 - Xiaomi Group-W repurchased 7.2 million shares at an average price of HKD 41.90 per share, totaling approximately HKD 302 million, with a cumulative repurchase of 119 million shares this year, accounting for 0.45% of total share capital [1] - Since September 2023, the company has repurchased over 150 million shares, costing around HKD 2 billion, with several single-day repurchase amounts reaching the daily limit [1] - The stock buyback occurs amid a 60% decline from historical highs in the tech sector, reflecting management's confidence in long-term value [1] Group 2 - Xiaomi Group-W, established in 2010, is a leading global smartphone and IoT platform company, reporting total revenue of CNY 126.8 billion and an adjusted net profit of CNY 8.37 billion in its mid-year report [2] - The company's business composition includes 58% from smartphones, 29% from IoT and consumer products, and 13% from internet services, maintaining a global smartphone market share of 12.9% [2] - The founder, Lei Jun, holds approximately 10% of shares, making him the largest individual shareholder, with major institutional investors including Blackstone and JPMorgan [2]

智能手机：25Q3 出货量4340 万部，同比+1.3%，实现连续9 个季度同比增长，市占率13.6%位列全球第 三。但受海外市场手机ASP 下降的影响，公司智能手机平均ASP 下降3.6%至1062.8 元，由此导致智能 手机业务营收同比下滑3.1%至460 亿元。展望后续，凭借新颖的背屏设计以及影像与澎湃系统的不断升 级，小米17 系列发布后销量同比上代增长30%，且Pro 系列占比超80%。25Q3 小米在国内3000 元机型 占比达到24.1%，同比提升4.1pct；4000~6000 元以上机型占比达到18.9%，同比提升5.6pct。小米高端化 进程稳步向前，在国内成效显著，且可通过规模效应以及供应商管理能力在存储上涨周期中彰显龙头韧 性。 IoT：2025Q3 公司IoT 与生活消费产品实现营业收入276 亿元，同比增长5.6%，其中受高基数、国补退 坡等压力影响，智能大家电业务收入同比下滑15.7%。毛利端，IoT 与生活消费产品毛利率同比提升3.2 个百分点，预计智能大家电业务受益于高端化战略拉动同样实现提升。展望后续，我们认为在基数效应 叠加需求前置的影响下，家电行业整体增速或边际放缓。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [7]. Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 340.37 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.5%. Adjusted net profit reached 32.82 billion yuan, up 73.5% year-on-year. The gross margin was 22.75%, an increase of 1.69 percentage points, while the net margin was 9.64%, up 2.28 percentage points [2][4]. - In Q3 2025, the company recorded a single-quarter revenue of 113.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.28%. Adjusted net profit reached a new high of 11.31 billion yuan, growing 80.92% year-on-year. The gross margin and net margin remained at 22.75% and 9.64%, respectively [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Smartphone Business - In Q3 2025, the company shipped 43.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of growth. The market share stood at 13.6%, ranking third globally. However, the average selling price (ASP) of smartphones decreased by 3.6% to 1,062.8 yuan, leading to a revenue decline of 3.1% to 46 billion yuan. The launch of the new Xiaomi 17 series is expected to boost sales by 30% compared to the previous generation [8]. IoT and Consumer Products - In Q3 2025, revenue from IoT and consumer products reached 27.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. However, the smart home appliance segment saw a revenue decline of 15.7% due to high base effects and reduced government subsidies. The gross margin for IoT and consumer products improved by 3.2 percentage points [8]. Automotive and AI Innovations - Revenue from automotive and AI innovations in Q3 2025 was 29 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 199.2%. Automotive revenue alone was 28.3 billion yuan, up 197.9% year-on-year. The company delivered a total of 108,800 vehicles in Q3, with a year-on-year increase of 173.4%. The average ASP for vehicles reached 260,000 yuan, up 9.0% year-on-year. The automotive business achieved a profit of approximately 700 million yuan for the first time [8]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to see significant growth in adjusted net profit, with projections of 44.6 billion yuan, 51.5 billion yuan, and 62.2 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively. The "Buy" rating is maintained based on the strong performance across various business segments [8].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group achieved impressive results in Q3 2025, with multiple indicators reaching historical highs, including total revenue of 113,120.73 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22.28% [1] Financial Performance - Q3 net profit reached 12,270.87 million RMB, marking a year-on-year increase of 129.35%, a historical high (adjusted) [1] Business Development - Xiaomi's traditional core business, smartphones, remains a key pillar, generating revenue of 46 billion RMB. The combined revenue from smartphones and AIoT reached 84.1 billion RMB in the quarter [1] - The IoT and lifestyle consumer products segment generated revenue of 27.6 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.6% [1] - The automotive business achieved a significant breakthrough, with revenue from smart electric vehicles and A1 innovation reaching 29 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of over 199%, including 28.3 billion RMB from automotive sales. The quarterly delivery volume exceeded 100,000 units, a record high since its launch [1] Profit Forecast - The company expects total revenue for 2025 to reach 409.82 billion RMB, representing a growth of 12%, with an operating profit margin of 5.88%. The corresponding PE ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 22.24, 18.60, and 15.02 times, respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi's stock price has experienced significant volatility, with a nearly 100% increase in the first half of the year followed by a decline of over 35% from its June peak, reflecting the challenges faced by the company and its founder Lei Jun's influence on market sentiment [1] Group 1: Stock Buyback and Market Response - Lei Jun's recent investment of over 100 million HKD in Xiaomi shares and the company's aggressive stock buyback strategy, with a single buyback amount reaching up to 400 million HKD, are seen as efforts to instill confidence in the market [1] - Following these actions, Xiaomi's stock price rose over 5% on November 25, returning above 40 HKD, indicating a potential recovery trend [1] Group 2: Business Challenges - Xiaomi's smartphone business, a cornerstone of the company, reported a revenue of 46 billion CNY in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decline of 3.2%, with a gross margin dropping to 11.1% due to rising manufacturing costs and aggressive pricing strategies from competitors like Huawei [2] - The IoT and lifestyle products segment, while showing a revenue growth of 5.6% to 27.6 billion CNY in Q3, faced a 15.7% decline in smart home appliance revenue, attributed to reduced government subsidies and intensified competition [2] Group 3: Automotive Business and Trust Issues - Xiaomi's automotive division has seen rapid growth, with the 500,000th vehicle rolling off the production line in just over a year, but it faces scrutiny over product quality and marketing practices, leading to a potential trust crisis [4] - Controversies surrounding the SU7 Ultra model, including legal disputes over marketing claims, have raised questions about the integrity of the company's messaging and the founder's accountability [5][6] Group 4: Industry Implications - The challenges faced by Xiaomi reflect broader issues within the Chinese electric vehicle industry, which is transitioning from a focus on hardware to software reliability and ethical data use, highlighting the need for improved transparency and communication [6] - The company's reliance on founder Lei Jun's personal brand and the need for a shift from a "celebrity-driven" model to one based on product reliability and service quality are critical for regaining consumer trust [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group-W (1810.HK) is "Hold" [2]. Core Insights - Xiaomi Group reported impressive financial performance in Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 113,120.73 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22.28%. Net profit was 12,270.87 million RMB, marking a significant year-on-year growth of 129.35%, achieving a historical high [5]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was 113,120.73 million RMB, up 22.28% year-on-year - Net profit reached 12,270.87 million RMB, reflecting a 129.35% increase year-on-year, also a historical high [5]. Business Development - The traditional core business, smartphones, remains a key pillar with revenue of 46 billion RMB. The combined revenue from smartphones and AIoT was 84.1 billion RMB in the quarter - IoT and lifestyle consumer products generated revenue of 27.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 5.6% - The automotive business achieved a significant breakthrough, with revenue from smart electric vehicles and AI innovation reaching 29 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of over 199%. The automotive revenue alone was 28.3 billion RMB, with quarterly deliveries exceeding 100,000 units, a record high since its launch [6]. Earnings Forecast - Projected operating revenue for 2024 is 365,906 million RMB, with a growth rate of 35.04% - Expected operating profit for 2024 is 21,519 million RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 53.43% - Forecasted net profit for 2024 is 22,377 million RMB, with a growth rate of 61.78% [8]. Financial Statements and Projections - Total assets are projected to grow from 403,155 million RMB in 2024 to 534,956 million RMB by 2027 - Total liabilities are expected to increase from 213,950 million RMB in 2024 to 283,527 million RMB in 2027 - Shareholder equity is anticipated to rise from 189,205 million RMB in 2024 to 251,430 million RMB in 2027 [9]. Valuation Analysis - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 33.89 in 2024 to 15.02 by 2027 - The price-to-book (PB) ratio is expected to decline from 4.01 in 2024 to 1.73 in 2027 [11].

Core Insights - Xiaomi's Q2 2023 revenue reached 673.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4%, while adjusted net profit increased by 147% to 51.4 billion yuan [12] - The average selling price (ASP) of Xiaomi's products rose to 1112 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [12] Financial Performance - Q2 revenue breakdown: smartphones accounted for 366 billion yuan, IoT and lifestyle products for 223 billion yuan, internet services for 74 billion yuan, and other income for 10.6 billion yuan [12] - R&D expenditure in Q2 was 46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21% [11][12] - The gross margin for IoT and lifestyle products reached a record high of 17.6%, up 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [11] IoT and User Engagement - As of June 30, 2023, Xiaomi's IoT platform connected 655 million devices, marking a year-on-year growth of 24.2% [6] - The number of active users for Xiaomi's smart TVs exceeded 62 million in June 2023, representing an increase of over 18% year-on-year [11] Research and Development - The number of R&D personnel reached 16,834, constituting 52% of the total workforce [11][12] - Xiaomi has over 3,000 personnel focused on AI, with significant progress in developing lightweight, locally deployed AI models [11]

Core Insights - Xiaomi Auto has officially produced its 500,000th vehicle, marking a significant milestone in the company's automotive journey, achieved in just over 1 year and 7 months since the first vehicle was produced [1][4] - The achievement signifies the validation of Xiaomi Auto's capabilities across research, manufacturing, sales, delivery, and service, indicating a new phase of scalability for the company [4] Company Development - Xiaomi announced its entry into the automotive industry in March 2021, with CEO Lei Jun committing his reputation to the project, describing it as his last major entrepreneurial venture [4] - The company has launched two models: the Xiaomi SU7, set to debut on March 28, 2024, priced between 215,900 to 299,900 RMB, and the Xiaomi YU7, which was launched on June 26, 2023, priced between 253,500 to 329,900 RMB [6] Sales Performance - As of October 2023, Xiaomi Auto has sold a total of 315,400 vehicles, with the SU7 being the best-selling large vehicle of the year at 234,500 units, and the YU7 at 80,900 units [11] - The company aims to deliver 350,000 new vehicles by the end of 2023, a target that is expected to be met ahead of schedule [11] Future Strategy - Lei Jun emphasized that the production of the 500,000th vehicle is just a new starting point for Xiaomi Auto, with a focus on safety, delivery, technological innovation, and the integration of AI and smart manufacturing [12]