中国 证券研究 2026 年 2 月 9 日 中国人工智能行业 全球布局与模型创新驱动新一代领军者；首次覆盖智谱 和 MiniMax，给予"增持"评级 我们认为，中国人工智能行业正从"百模大战" 阶段，迈向以商业化落地 能力、模型创新实力及全球化布局为决定成败之关键的阶段。我们认为， MiniMax 和智谱（Zhipu AI/Z.AI）脱颖而出，已成为最具特色的两家独立大 语言模型开发商，海外布局不断加速：MiniMax 目前超过 70%的收入来自海 外市场，两家企业均在通过全球开发者生态落地快速推进 API 业务的规模化 扩张。海外布局不仅实现了收入来源的多元化、推动毛利率提升，更彰显了 二者的全球竞争力。我们自下而上的分析预测，到 2030 年全球 AI 市场规模 将达到 1.4 万亿美元，其中 B2B 应用市场规模约 1.1 万亿美元，B2C 应用市 场规模约 3,000 亿美元，两大板块均具备广阔的发展空间。尽管两家企业自 近期上市后股价出现显著上涨，我们仍建议投资者布局。我们首次覆盖智谱 （2513 HK）和 MiniMax（100 HK），给予"增持"评级，截至 2026 年 12 月的目标价分别 ...

不知不觉，国产人工大模型已经告别了"百模大战"。 摩根大通在最新发布的一份研究报告中指出，具备持续竞争力的国产大模型开发商，已从超200家缩减 至不足10家，形成"科技巨头+独立先锋"的双轨竞争格局。 其中，智谱与MiniMax两大独立大语言模型开发商凭借突出的技术优势、差异化商业化路径及全球化布 局脱颖而出，成为把握全球AI下一轮价值创造浪潮的核心标的。 摩根大通首次覆盖这两家上市公司，并给予"增持"投资评级。 01 行业变局：从分散竞争到集中角逐 摩根大通认为，中国AI市场的整合浪潮背后，是行业竞争逻辑的根本性转变——模型性能、商业化效 率与全球适配能力取代单纯的参数规模，成为企业生存的关键。 当前行业呈现鲜明的双轨竞争态势：一方面，腾讯、阿里等综合性科技巨头凭借规模效应、海量数据 （603138）及渠道优势占据生态主导地位；另一方面，以智谱和MiniMax为代表的独立先锋，凭借技术 敏捷性与创新力，在特定高价值领域实现突破，形成差异化竞争优势。 在模型性能层面，智谱的GLM-4.7与MiniMax的M2.1已跻身全球领先行列，在编程和智能体任务等核心 场景的基准测试中表现突出。随着市场成熟，API定价、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the computer industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The acceleration of AI applications is expected to significantly alter the global AI competitive landscape, particularly with the anticipated release of DeepSeek's V4 model [7]. - The Chinese AI cloud market is projected to reach 51.8 billion yuan by 2025 and 193 billion yuan by 2030, with Alibaba aiming to capture 80% of the market's incremental growth in 2026 [7]. - The report highlights the ongoing trend of domestic chip manufacturers gaining market share due to restrictions on foreign competitors like NVIDIA [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - From January to November 2025, the software industry revenue reached 13.98 trillion yuan, growing by 13.3% year-on-year, marking a continuous recovery over nine months [13]. - The IC design sector showed a robust growth of 16.5% during the same period, outperforming the overall software industry growth [18]. AI Developments - Major AI models such as OpenAI's GPT-5 and DeepSeek's V3.2 are leading the market, with DeepSeek's models expected to challenge established players significantly [39][44]. - The report notes that the trend of using domestic chips for training large models is anticipated to grow in 2026, with DeepSeek already optimizing its models for compatibility with local hardware [63]. Domestic Market Trends - The report emphasizes the increasing importance of domestic chip manufacturers, as restrictions on foreign technology create opportunities for local firms [7]. - The number of devices running Huawei's HarmonyOS has surpassed 36 million, indicating strong growth in the domestic software ecosystem [7]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies like Runze Technology, Sugon, and Huada Jiutian, which are positioned well within the AI and chip sectors [7]. - The ongoing IPOs of companies like Changxin Technology and Chipone Semiconductor are highlighted as potential investment opportunities in the semiconductor space [7].

Core Viewpoint - MiniMax has successfully completed its IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising approximately 55.4 billion HKD (around 49.65 billion RMB) with a strong market response, including a 1837 times oversubscription in the public offering and 37 times in the international offering [4][5][45]. Group 1: IPO Details - MiniMax's IPO involved the issuance of approximately 33.58 million shares at a maximum price of 165 HKD per share, with a total fundraising amount of about 55.4 billion HKD [4]. - The stock code "00100" reflects the company's name, where "0" represents "Mini" and "100" corresponds to "Max" in binary, symbolizing the minimum solution that meets the conditions [2]. - The stock experienced significant price increases post-IPO, reaching a peak of 299 HKD per share, representing an over 80% increase [7]. Group 2: Company Background and Strategy - Founded less than four years ago, MiniMax has attracted significant investments from notable institutions, raising over 1.5 billion USD in total [7]. - The company emphasizes "extreme efficiency" and has developed a dual business model targeting both B2B and B2C markets, with a user base exceeding 210 million [17][19]. - MiniMax's strategic focus is on achieving AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) through a full-modal approach, integrating voice, video, and text capabilities [10][22]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - MiniMax has made significant breakthroughs in various AI modalities, including achieving industry-leading performance in real-time speech interaction and video generation [13][14]. - The M2.1 model has excelled in coding tasks and multi-language logical reasoning, enhancing productivity in real-world applications [15]. - The company's full-modal strategy allows it to leverage vast amounts of video and audio data, addressing the "data exhaustion crisis" faced by many AI firms [26]. Group 4: Organizational Efficiency - MiniMax's organizational structure is designed for high efficiency, with over 80% of its code generated by AI, allowing for a significant reduction in marginal costs [33][34]. - The company maintains a flat organizational hierarchy with a youthful workforce, where 73.8% of employees are in R&D roles, averaging 29 years of age [36]. - This innovative structure has enabled MiniMax to achieve a competitive R&D efficiency, spending approximately 500 million USD, which is only 1% of OpenAI's expenditure during the same period [38]. Group 5: Market Position and Future Outlook - MiniMax's successful IPO and the strong interest from institutional investors reflect a market recognition of its technological barriers and engineering efficiency [29][45]. - The company aims to continue its rapid growth over the next four years, emphasizing the importance of attracting top talent to maintain its competitive edge in the evolving AI landscape [46][49]. - The focus on scalability and the ability to convert resources into intelligence will be critical for MiniMax's long-term success in the AGI race [44][50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the computer industry, indicating a "Buy" rating for key companies within the sector [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the semiconductor and AI sectors, particularly focusing on companies like Wallen Technology and TianShu Intelligent Chip, which are preparing for IPOs and showcasing innovative GPU products [4][28]. - The report emphasizes the rapid growth of revenue and the importance of R&D investment in driving future profitability for companies in the AI and GPU markets [44][40]. Summary by Sections Wallen Technology - Wallen Technology is set to launch its IPO on January 8, 2026, with a focus on self-developed GPGPU chips and intelligent computing solutions. The company has seen revenue growth from 0.499 million in 2022 to 58.9 million in 2025H1, with significant orders in hand [4][5]. - The company’s core products include the BR106 and BR110 series, with the BR106 achieving mass production in 2023 and generating substantial revenue [9][25]. - Wallen Technology's revenue for 2025H1 reached 58.9 million, with a projected total revenue of 336.8 million for 2024, indicating a strong upward trend [22][40]. TianShu Intelligent Chip - TianShu Intelligent Chip commenced its IPO process on December 30, 2025, and has developed a comprehensive product line including the TianYai series for AI model training and the ZhiKai series for inference [28][32]. - The company has achieved significant milestones, including the launch of its second-generation training product in 2023 and the third generation in 2024, with average prices for TianYai at 30,000-40,000 and ZhiKai at approximately 10,000 [36][34]. - Revenue is projected to grow from 189 million in 2022 to 540 million in 2024, with a focus on maintaining high R&D investment to support product development [40][44]. ZhiPu and MiniMax - ZhiPu and MiniMax have recently initiated their IPO processes, representing significant players in the AI model market, with ZhiPu focusing on B2B solutions and MiniMax on B2C applications [41][42]. - ZhiPu has demonstrated rapid revenue growth, achieving 310 million in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 150.9%, while MiniMax has emphasized efficient model architecture and rapid commercialization [44][52]. - Both companies are leveraging their unique strengths in AI model development, with ZhiPu focusing on localized deployment and MiniMax on high user engagement through innovative applications [46][52].

Group 1 - MiniMax and Zhizhu AI are making significant technological advancements as they prepare for their IPOs in Hong Kong, with MiniMax launching the M2.1 text model and Zhizhu AI releasing the GLM-4.7 model, both achieving state-of-the-art performance in various benchmarks [2][3] - The U.S. has adjusted its chip tariff policy towards China, signaling a stable bilateral relationship, which allows domestic chip companies like Moore Threads to focus on building sustainable hardware and software ecosystems [3] - Galaxy General Robotics has completed a record financing round of over $300 million, reaching a valuation of $3 billion, marking a significant milestone in the humanoid robotics industry in China [4] Group 2 - Moore Threads, after its IPO, held its first developer conference to promote its new GPU architecture "Huagang" and announced plans for AI training and high-performance graphics rendering chips [3] - The financing by Galaxy General Robotics emphasizes its focus on practical applications in the fields of unattended pharmacies and industrial manufacturing, with hundreds of pharmacy orders already secured [4] - The overall trend in the AI and chip sectors indicates a shift from product performance to ecosystem development, highlighting the importance of continuous innovation and commercialization potential for companies in these industries [2][3]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [6][13]. Core Insights - The domestic AI application sector is poised for explosive growth, with major companies actively investing in AI models and talent [2][6]. - Competition in AI model development and application commercialization is intensifying, with significant advancements in both super entry points and vertical functionalities [2][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Tencent has launched the Tencent HY 2.0 language model, significantly improving performance in complex reasoning scenarios, and has released the HY-World 1.5 model for real-time 3D reconstruction [3]. - Alibaba has open-sourced the Qwen-Image-Edit-2511 model, enhancing character consistency and industrial design adaptability, and upgraded the Qwen3-TTS voice model for comprehensive audio understanding [4]. - ByteDance has released the Doubao model 1.8, enhancing autonomous planning and cross-system collaboration, and introduced the Seedance 1.5 Pro model for audio-visual synchronization [4]. - MiniMax has updated its M2 series model, achieving an average score of 88.6 on the VIBE comprehensive ranking, surpassing several international models in multilingual programming capabilities [4]. - Zhipu AI has launched the GLM-4.7 model, focusing on programming, reasoning, and intelligent agents, supporting 128K long texts and multimodal interactions [4]. Application Commercialization - Tencent's Yuanbao APP has added a novel writing feature and integrated with QQ groups for intelligent message summarization [5]. - Alibaba's Qianwen APP surpassed 40 million monthly active users within 30 days of public testing, integrating local life services and launching an AI drama generation feature [5]. - ByteDance's Doubao series models have achieved a daily usage of over 50 trillion tokens, ranking first in China and third globally, with the Doubao APP's daily active users exceeding 100 million [5]. - MiniMax has collaborated with Kuaikan Manhua to launch the first AI interactive comic, enabling animated and voice-enabled characters [5]. - Zhipu AI has fully integrated the GLM-4.7 model capabilities into its applications, enhancing coding abilities and task planning [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report expresses optimism about the explosive growth potential in the domestic AI application sector, recommending attention to Tencent, Alibaba, MiniMax (upcoming IPO), and Zhipu (upcoming IPO) [6].

Group 1: Generative AI Developments - ChatGPT has launched its "Your Year with ChatGPT" annual review feature, providing users with insights such as message count and chat statistics, with some users ranking in the top 1% of activity [1] - Zhiyu AI has released GLM-4.7, which ranks first in global open-source coding evaluations, surpassing GPT-5.2, and has improved multi-language coding capabilities [2] - MiniMax has introduced the M2.1 model, enhancing multi-language programming capabilities and achieving a score of 88.6 in VIBE rankings, nearly matching Claude Opus 4.5 [3] Group 2: AI in Business Operations - DingTalk has launched an AI-driven work intelligence operating system, evolving its task processing agent "Wukong" from a conversationalist to an executor, and aims to help enterprises reduce costs by 15% [4] Group 3: Aerospace Innovations - The Long March 12甲 rocket successfully completed its first flight, achieving its second-stage orbital goal, although the first stage was not recovered, marking a significant step in reusable rocket technology [6] Group 4: AI Chip Market Insights - Peter Thiel predicts that AI chips will eventually become inexpensive, attributing Nvidia's past profits to its monopolistic position and lack of alternatives [7] - AMD's hardware performance has caught up with or surpassed GPUs, and ASICs are outperforming general-purpose GPUs, indicating a shift in the competitive landscape [7] Group 5: AI and General Intelligence Debate - A debate between LeCun and Hassabis highlights differing views on the existence of "general intelligence," with LeCun arguing against it and Hassabis emphasizing the potential of scalable architectures [8] Group 6: AI Startup Trends - Anthropic has seen a 52% user growth, surpassing OpenAI as the most used API among YC entrepreneurs, indicating a shift in preference towards specific models for AI tasks [9] - The AI economy is transitioning from an "installation phase" to a "deployment phase," with a clearer structure emerging for AI-native companies [9]