Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the electronic industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The sentiment around domestic computing power has been accumulating since late July, largely due to speculation about the H20's ability to ship successfully. The recent discussions around the H20 chip's security risks have raised concerns about its application and safety [6] - The U.S. export licenses for NVIDIA's H20 and AMD's MI308 chips to China come with revenue sharing and "backdoor" mechanisms, which limit their competitiveness in the Chinese market. This creates an opportunity for domestic computing power to gain market space [6] - The report emphasizes that the limitations of the H20 chip in terms of performance and energy efficiency align with domestic green development goals, suggesting that the restrictions on H20 will support the growth of domestic GPU markets [6] Summary by Sections Market Sentiment - Since late July, there has been a buildup of sentiment regarding domestic computing power, driven by speculation about the H20 chip's market entry and safety concerns raised by Chinese authorities [6] Policy Impact - Recent U.S. policy changes have created a challenging environment for the H20 chip, with export licenses requiring revenue sharing and raising security concerns, which may hinder its market performance in China [6] Domestic Opportunities - The limitations imposed on the H20 chip are seen as a catalyst for domestic computing power to expand its market presence, with a focus on the need for advanced process capacity and the demand from internet companies [6]

NEWS ◆ 苹果新动向 马斯克：苹果公司违反反垄断法，xAI 将立即采取法律行动 8 月 12 日消息，马斯克当地时间 8 月 11 日在社交媒体平台 X 发文称：「X 平台是全球排名第一的新闻 应用，而 Grok 在所有应用中排名第五，为什么苹果公司拒绝将 X 或 Grok 列入 App Store 必备类别？你 在玩弄政治吗？究竟是怎么回事？好奇的人们想知道答案。」 马斯克表示，苹果公司的行为使得 OpenAI 以外的任何 AI 公司都无法在 App Store 排行榜中排名第一， 「这无疑违反反垄断法」，xAI 将立即采取法律行动。 2021 年，马斯克曾公开批评苹果收取的应用内购佣金，称其为「事实上的全球互联网税」，马斯克还 在舆论上力挺与苹果对抗的 Epic Games。（新闻来源：IT之家） 跨系统「融合」：开发者成功在越狱 iPhone 上基于 iOS 内核运行 macOS 图形界面 8 月 11 日消息，博主 Duy Tran 在 X 发文，透露其成功在 iPhone设备上运行了完整的 macOS 操作系 统。根据其发布的演示内容，该系统不仅能够正常启动，还能运行 Xcode 和活动监视器等 ...

Market Overview - A-shares showed strong performance on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.34% to 3,647 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.46%[18] - U.S. stocks retreated ahead of the inflation data release, with the Dow Jones down 0.45% to 43,975 points, and the S&P 500 declining 0.25% to 6,373 points[11] - European markets exhibited mixed results, with the Stoxx 600 index closing flat, while the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.23%[11] Commodity and Currency Insights - International gold prices fell over 2% after Trump confirmed no tariffs on imported gold, with New York gold futures down 2.5% to $3,353 per ounce[30] - Oil prices remained near two-month lows, reflecting market focus on the potential outcomes of U.S.-Russia talks regarding Ukraine[30] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.3% to 98.52, while the euro appreciated by 12.2% year-to-date against the dollar[29] Economic Indicators and Predictions - The upcoming U.S. CPI data is anticipated to influence market sentiment, with current expectations of a 58 basis point rate cut priced in for the year[33] - The global AI capital expenditure (CAPEX) is projected to grow by 64% in 2025 and 50% in 2026, driven by increased demand for computing power and favorable tax reforms[9] Sector Performance - In the U.S., 8 out of 11 S&P sectors declined, with the energy sector leading the losses at 0.79%[11] - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.19%, while the technology sector showed mixed results, with Meituan declining and Alibaba gaining nearly 2%[13] Notable Corporate Developments - Nvidia and AMD agreed to pay 15% of their AI chip sales revenue to the U.S. government to obtain export licenses, impacting their stock prices slightly downwards[11] - The Indian economy may face a potential $32 billion drop in annual exports if a 50% tariff becomes the norm, affecting various manufacturing sectors[26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the semiconductor industry [7][32]. Core Insights - The semiconductor index saw a slight increase of 0.42% from July 14 to July 18, 2025, while the broader market indices also experienced gains [10][12]. - The U.S. has relaxed export licenses for AI chips, allowing companies like NVIDIA and AMD to resume shipments to China, which is expected to positively impact the semiconductor market [14][24]. - The report highlights a significant performance improvement among several semiconductor companies, with notable profit growth forecasts for the first half of 2025 [2][11][31]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The semiconductor index increased by 0.42% during the specified period, ranking 65th out of 125 secondary industries [10]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose to 5732.62 points, with a year-to-date increase of 14.16% [4][17]. Company Performance - **Mid-Micro Company**: Expected H1 2025 net profit growth of 31.61% to 41.28%, with revenue projected at approximately 4.961 billion yuan [2][11]. - **拓荆股份 (Tuojing Co.)**: Anticipated Q2 2025 net profit growth of 235% to 249%, benefiting from domestic substitution trends [2][11]. - **天德钰 (Tiande Yu)**: Expected H1 2025 net profit growth of 50.89% [2][11]. - **炬芯科技 (Juxin Technology)**: Forecasted H1 2025 net profit growth of 122.28% [2][11]. - **士兰微 (Silicon Micro)**: Expected to achieve a net profit of 235 million to 275 million yuan, marking a turnaround [2][11]. Market Trends - The report discusses the "anti-involution" policies in the new energy vehicle sector, which aim to regulate competition and improve cash flow for midstream companies [3][22]. - The demand for AI-related hardware is expected to rise due to the increasing market share of AI applications, driving growth in various semiconductor products [5][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong capabilities in self-control and domestic substitution, such as 兆易创新 (Zhaoyi Innovation), 澜起科技 (Lanke Technology), 聚辰股份 (Jucheng Co.), 神工股份 (Shengong Co.), and 龙芯中科 (Loongson Technology) [5][32].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of $145.00 [7][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the restrictions on the H20 chip sales are anticipated by the market, but new regulations may aim to close performance gaps in memory bandwidth [2][12]. - NVIDIA is expected to focus on shipping HGX architecture servers and H20 chips in FY26H1, with a close watch on the GB300 NVL72 production progress [3][12]. - The supply chain is likely to be reshaped due to tariff pressures, with a shift towards production in Mexico or the U.S. being a prevailing trend [4][12]. - The report projects a decrease in FY26 adjusted net profit by 4.7% to $112.1 billion, leading to a reduction in the target price from $160 to $145 [5][18]. Summary by Sections Sales and Market Dynamics - NVIDIA has paused H20 product sales in China and stopped accepting new orders, which is seen as a proactive adjustment to potential export controls [2][12]. - Major clients have completed their initial stockpiling of H20, while smaller clients still have some demand [2][12]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of $206.1 billion in FY26, up from $130.5 billion in FY25, representing a 57.91% increase [6][18]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to reach $112.1 billion in FY26, reflecting a 50.95% increase from the previous year [6][18]. Valuation Metrics - The adjusted PE ratio for FY26 is revised down to 32.1x, with a corresponding target price adjustment to $145 [5][18]. - The report indicates that the gross margin for the H20 chip is approximately 50%, which is significantly lower than NVIDIA's overall gross margin of around 70% [2][12]. Supply Chain and Production - NVIDIA is collaborating with ODMs to enhance the localization of its supply chain in the U.S., with significant investments in production facilities in Mexico and the U.S. [4][12]. - The report notes that approximately 60% of AI servers imported into the U.S. currently come from Mexico, benefiting from USMCA trade agreement exemptions [4][12].