Group 1 - TSMC's N2 process has better profitability compared to the N3 process [1]

Core Insights - TSMC's N2 process is leading the industry with a yield of approximately 65% expected by mid-2025, significantly surpassing its competitors [1][4] - Intel's 18A process has shown remarkable improvement, reaching a yield of 55%, with potential to increase to 65%-75% by optimizing processes [2][3] - Samsung's SF2 process is lagging with a yield of only 40%, facing significant challenges that need to be addressed to remain competitive [4] TSMC's N2 Process - TSMC is investing in improving the yield of its N2 process, aiming for close to 75% by 2026 [1] - The company is addressing technical challenges such as stitching and overlay control in EUV lithography to enhance yield and performance [1] - Comprehensive optimizations, including advanced pellicles to reduce contamination, are being implemented to boost yield [1] Intel's 18A Process - Intel's 18A process yield has improved from 50% to 55%, indicating successful defect reduction and process optimization [2] - The company plans to start mass production of the Panther Lake processor using the 18A process by the end of 2025 [2] - Future enhancements with the Intel 18A-P version are expected to further improve yield and competitiveness [2][3] Samsung's SF2 Process - Samsung's SF2 process yield remains at 40%, attributed to wafer-level defects and slow EUV patterning capability improvements [4] - The next-generation 2nm node is expected to launch in early 2027, but significant yield improvements are needed beforehand [4] - Samsung faces a challenging task to catch up with TSMC and Intel, requiring breakthroughs in technology and yield optimization [4]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's Q2 performance is expected to exceed expectations, driven by strong demand for advanced process nodes, but the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar poses challenges for its profitability in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Q2 Performance - Morgan Stanley forecasts TSMC's Q2 revenue to reach $29.95 billion, a 17% quarter-over-quarter increase, significantly surpassing the company's guidance of 11-14% [2]. - The strong performance is attributed to three main factors: rapid ramp-up of N3 process, sustained strong performance of N5 series, and urgent orders from older process nodes [2]. - Despite the significant appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar, Q2 gross margin is expected to remain at 57.9%, within the company's guidance range, due to higher capacity utilization and price increases from urgent orders [2] [1]. Group 2: Outlook for H2 - For the second half of the year, the fundamental drivers are viewed more positively compared to three months ago, leading to an upward revision of TSMC's 2025 revenue guidance to a high growth level of 29% (in USD) [3]. - However, the New Taiwan Dollar has appreciated by 11% since late April, which is expected to significantly impact gross margin and profitability in the second half [3]. - Morgan Stanley has adjusted its exchange rate model to 1 USD = 29 TWD, resulting in a 1% and 2% downward revision of TSMC's earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026, respectively [3]. - The expected gross margin for the second half is projected to decline to around 56% due to the impact of currency appreciation [3]. - Quarterly forecasts indicate a 3-6% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth for Q3, while Q4 is expected to decline by 6% due to the fading effect of demand pull-forward and conservative expectations for non-AI demand [3]. Group 3: Advanced Process Demand - Despite currency challenges, TSMC's leadership in advanced processes and strong demand remain its core competitive advantages [4]. - The demand for N3 process is expected to maintain over 100% utilization in 2026 and 2027, potentially leading to supply shortages due to capacity constraints [7]. - The demand outlook for N2 process in 2026 is described as "quite strong," with major clients like Apple, AMD, Broadcom, Qualcomm, MediaTek, and Intel likely to adopt N2 technology [7]. - Apple is considering the full adoption of N2 processors in four new iPhone models in the second half of 2025, which could further boost N2 demand [7].

Core Viewpoint - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating for TSMC and raises the target price from NT$1,180 to NT$1,200, highlighting the company's growth potential driven by capacity expansion, financial forecasts, and industry trends [1][5] Group 1: Capacity Expansion and Strategic Positioning - TSMC's annual capacity is projected to reach 36 million 8-inch equivalent wafers by the end of 2023, with a production network spanning Taiwan and overseas [1] - The company operates four 12-inch and four 8-inch fabs in Taiwan, along with a 12-inch fab and two 8-inch fabs in the U.S. and China, ensuring supply chain stability and geopolitical risk mitigation [1] Group 2: Financial Performance and Projections - UBS raises TSMC's 2025 revenue growth forecast from 25% to 29%, with capital expenditure expectations adjusted to a range of $40 billion to $42 billion, driven by surging cloud AI demand and advanced process capacity [2] - The gross margin is expected to remain high at 57.0%, close to the historical peak of 58.8% in the previous quarter, with long-term EPS growth rate estimates increased from 16% to 18% [2] Group 3: AI Demand and Packaging Technology - Despite a downward revision in smartphone and PC shipment forecasts, optimism remains for cloud AI chip demand, with TSMC's CoWoS packaging capacity expected to reach 70,000 pieces per month by the end of 2025 and 100,000 pieces by the end of 2026, a 30% increase from previous plans [3] - This expansion is anticipated to alleviate supply concerns for high-end AI chips and boost the revenue share from packaging services [3] Group 4: Profitability and Cost Management - TSMC is expected to maintain a gross margin of 55.5% to 56.5% from Q3 2025 to 2026, significantly above market consensus of 53% to 55%, due to strategic price adjustments and supply chain management [3] - Price increases for N5 and N3 wafers are planned, with mobile products seeing a 3%-5% increase and HPC products up by 10% [3] Group 5: Capital Expenditure Strategy - TSMC plans to increase capital expenditure for N2 process and overseas expansion, with external capital expenditure expected to reach $40 billion in 2025, a 5% increase from previous plans [4] - This strategy aims to reinforce TSMC's technological leadership and prepare for the restructuring of the global semiconductor supply chain [4] Group 6: Valuation and Investment Recommendation - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating for TSMC, raising the 12-month target price to NT$1,200 based on stronger AI demand and cost management capabilities [5] - The current stock price of NT$1,055 corresponds to a 2025 P/E ratio of only 22 times, significantly lower than its long-term growth expectations, making TSMC a compelling choice for investors seeking core assets in the semiconductor industry [5]

Core Insights - Intel is reportedly negotiating a large-scale wafer foundry contract with Microsoft for the production of chips using the 18A advanced process, attracting interest from tech giants like NVIDIA and Google, challenging TSMC's dominance [1] - The 18A process is described as potentially being an "iPhone moment" for the semiconductor industry, with Intel aiming to position it as an alternative to TSMC's N2 process [1] - Intel's 18A process is expected to enter stable mass production in the second half of this year, with performance claims comparable to TSMC's N2 process [1][2] Company Developments - Intel's new CEO, Pat Gelsinger, is focusing on electronic design automation (EDA), packaging, and wafer foundry services as part of the company's strategic vision [1] - The company is currently in the risk trial production phase for the 18A process, with expectations to transition to mass production within the year [1] Industry Context - The interest from major U.S. tech companies in the 18A process is driven by the need to mitigate geopolitical risks and alleviate tariff pressures, especially in light of potential semiconductor tariffs proposed by Trump [2] - Compared to TSMC and Samsung, Intel's supply chain appears to be more diversified, which could provide a geopolitical advantage if the 18A process achieves stable mass production [2]

点击招商研究小程序查看PDF报告原文 台积电（TSMC，2330.TW）于4月17日发布2025年第一季度财报，25Q1收入255.3亿美元，同比+35. 3%/环比-5.1%；毛利率58.8%，同比+5.7pcts/环比-0.2pcts。公司指引AI加速芯片营收增长强劲，25Q2 收入预计同比加速增长，尚未看到关税带来客户提前拉货。综合财报及交流会议信息，总结要点如下： 评论： 1、25Q1收入符合指引预期，毛利率位于指引上限。 25Q1收入255.3亿美元，符合指引预期（250-258亿美元），以美元计同比+35.3%/环比-5.1%；环比下降 系智能手机季节性因素影响，部分被AI相关需求持续增长所抵消；毛利率58.8%，位于指引上限（57-5 9%），同比+5.7pcts/环比-0.2pcts，主要系地震及海外产能扩张所稀释，部分被成本改善措施抵消；公 司25Q1 EPS为13.94新台币，ROE为32.7%，ASP 3482美元/环比-0.4%。 2、HPC收入占比继续提升，7nm及以下收入占比73%。 1）按技术节点划分： 25Q1 3/5/7nm收入分别占比22%/36%/15%，7nm及以下先进 ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's Q1 revenue increased by 42% year-on-year, reaching approximately NT$285.96 billion, with cumulative revenue for the quarter at NT$839.25 billion (about $25.53 billion), aligning with market expectations despite concerns over potential impacts from new U.S. tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: Revenue Performance - TSMC's Q1 revenue of NT$285.96 billion and cumulative revenue of NT$839.25 billion fell within the company's forecast range of $25 billion to $25.8 billion [1]. - Analysts had initially expected a slight dip in revenue due to the January earthquake, but the actual results exceeded these expectations [1]. Group 2: Market Concerns - Investors are particularly focused on the potential weakening of global chip demand following the implementation of new U.S. tariffs on April 9 [1]. - There is anticipation regarding TSMC's upcoming investor conference on April 17, where the company may revise its annual revenue and capital expenditure targets [1]. Group 3: Competitive Position and Risks - Bloomberg analysts believe TSMC maintains a leading position in advanced process technologies, particularly in 2nm and 3nm nodes, which should mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs [2]. - However, TSMC faces short-term profit risks due to rising operational costs from rapid overseas capacity expansion, particularly in the U.S., and low utilization rates in mature process technologies [2]. Group 4: Customer Impact - TSMC's major customer, NVIDIA, may have 40% to 60% of its U.S. system products eligible for tariff exemptions, potentially reducing the impact of tariffs [3]. - Despite some products being assembled in the U.S., approximately half of NVIDIA's components are still produced in Asia, particularly Taiwan, which may continue to face tariff risks [3].