业绩简评 2025 年 7 月 17 日公司披露 25Q2 业绩，25Q2 公司实现营收 300.7 亿美元，同比增长 44.4%，环比增长 17.8%，毛利率为 58.6%，同 比+5.4pcts，环比-0.2pcts，实现净利润 128.0 亿美元，同比 +60.7%，环比+10.2%。 公司指引 25Q3 营收为 318~330 亿美元，毛利率为 55.5%~57.5%， 营业利润率为 45.5%~47.5%。 盈利预测、估值与评级 我们认为，公司作为晶圆代工龙头企业，在最先进制程上与竞争 对手优势愈发明显，有望充分受益 AI 芯片需求增长。未来看，AI 有望带动端侧产品创新，公司也有望受益 AI 手机、机器人等端侧 应用起量。我们预计公司 25~27 年净利润分别为 496.86、603.79、 667.68 亿美元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 下游需求不及预期；美国关税风险；研发进度不及预期；行业竞 争加剧；美国制裁加剧。 经营分析 公司毛利率下滑主要因新台币升值导致，公司收入按照美元计价， 报表则会转化为新台币计价。公司所在晶圆代工行业属重资产行 业，折旧占营业成本比重较大，导致新台币升值会对公 ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's recent technology forum in Shanghai highlighted the company's advancements in semiconductor technology and its market outlook, particularly focusing on the growth of the semiconductor market driven by high-performance computing (HPC) and AI integration, despite limitations in advanced process offerings to Chinese clients [3][4][5]. Market Outlook - The global semiconductor market is projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2030, with HPC accounting for 45%, smartphones for 25%, automotive for 15%, and IoT for 10% [5][6]. Advanced Process Technology - TSMC's 3nm family continues to evolve, with N3P expected to enter mass production in Q4 2024, enhancing performance by 5% or reducing power consumption by 5-10% compared to N3E [6][9]. - N2P is anticipated to begin production in H2 2026, offering an 18% performance increase at the same power level and a 36% reduction in power at the same performance level [11][13]. - The A16 process, set for mass production in H2 2026, integrates three innovative technologies, promising an 8-10% performance boost or a 15-20% reduction in power consumption compared to N2P [14][19][22]. - The A14 process, based on second-generation GAA technology, is expected to start production in 2028, with significant improvements in speed and energy efficiency [20][22]. Advanced Packaging Technology - TSMC's 3DFabric® technology includes SoIC platforms for 3D silicon stacking, with N3-on-N4 stacking expected to enter mass production in 2025 [23][25]. - The SoW-X platform, set for 2027, aims to enhance computational capabilities significantly, integrating essential components for AI training [30]. Special Process Technologies - TSMC is advancing automotive technology with its latest logic technologies, which enhance performance by approximately 20% per generation while reducing power consumption by 30-40% [32]. - The company is also focusing on IoT applications, with developments in ultra-low leakage SRAM and logic circuits to extend battery life [38]. Manufacturing Excellence - TSMC anticipates a twelvefold increase in wafer shipments for AI-related products by 2025 compared to 2021 [44]. - The company plans to add nine new facilities by 2025 to expand capacity, including six wafer fabs in Taiwan and two overseas [45]. - TSMC is committed to sustainable manufacturing, aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050 and a 98% resource recovery rate by 2030 [46][48].

Core Insights - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is enhancing its nanosheet chip technology roadmap with N2, N2P, and A16 nodes to improve performance and efficiency, particularly for high-performance computing (HPC) and AI workloads [1][10] Group 1: Technology Advancements - The N2 logic node, TSMC's first generation of nanosheet transistor technology, offers a 10-15% speed improvement, 25-30% power improvement, and over 15% chip density gain compared to N3E, with volume production expected in the second half of 2025 [2] - N2P, an extension of the N2 family, is set to improve performance and power efficiency, while the A16 logic node is anticipated to deliver a 15-20% power improvement and an additional 7-10% chip density gain compared to N2P, both introduced in the first quarter of 2025 [4] Group 2: Customer Adoption - TSMC is securing significant customers like AMD and Apple for its N2 advanced logic node, with Apple planning to integrate these chips into future iPhones and Macs, and AMD aiming to enhance its CPUs and GPUs for competitive advantage [3] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Intel and GlobalFoundries are striving to catch up with TSMC, with Intel planning to launch its 2nm-based node, Intel 18A, in the second half of 2025, while GlobalFoundries focuses on specialized chips for automotive and IoT applications [6][7] Group 4: Market Position and Performance - TSMC's shares have increased by 9.7% year-to-date, outperforming the Semiconductor - Circuit Foundry industry's growth of 8.7% [8] - TSMC trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 9.08X, slightly above the industry average of 9.02X [12] Group 5: Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TSMC's earnings in 2025 and 2026 indicates year-over-year growth of 30.54% and 14.80%, respectively, with recent upward revisions for 2025 estimates and downward revisions for 2026 [15]

国芯网[原:中国半导体论坛] 振兴国产半导体产业！ 不拘中国、 放眼世界 ！ 关注 世界半导体论坛 ↓ ↓ ↓ 4月29日消息，据台媒报道，中国台湾计划加强对先进制程技术出口管控， 新的措施将强制执行"N- 1"技术限制，将实质上禁止台积电出口其最新生产节点！ 此次修订的规则基于修订后的《产业创新法》第22条，预计将于2025年底生效，不过相关部门表示，该 法的实施日期将在各子法规修订后（六个月内）公布，这意味着最早可能在2025年底开始实施。 在此修订之前，中国台湾法规并未明确要求对半导体制造工艺进行此类管控。这些规定基于修订后的 《产业创新法》第22条，预计将于2025年底生效。 台积电最先进制程技术存在重大变数。目前，台积电拥有一个尖端节点：N3P（3nm）制程。但到今年 年底，台积电将开始采用N2（2nm）制程生产芯片，这将成为其旗舰技术。 然而，从2026年底开始，台积电预计将拥有两个旗舰节点：面向不需要高级供电的客户端应用的N2P， 以及面向高功耗HPC（高性能计算）应用的配备Super Power Rail背面供电的A16（1.6nm）工艺。 中国台湾将视哪项制程技术为"旗舰"并因此限制出口，或 ...

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 今天，台积电在美国举办了tsmc symposium 2025，会上他们发布了一系列新技术，并对路线 图做了更新。值得一提的是，公司第二代GAA工艺14A也首次曝光。 台积电表示，A14代表了台积电业界领先的N2工艺的重大进步，旨在通过提供更快的计算速度和 更高的能效来推动人工智能（AI）转型。此外，它还有望通过提升智能手机的内置AI功能，使其 更加智能。根据台积电的规划，A14计划于2028年投产，目前开发进展顺利，良率已提前实现。 台积电指出，与即将于今年晚些时候量产的 N2 工艺相比，A14 将在相同功耗下实现高达 15% 的 速度提升，或在相同速度下降低高达 30% 的功耗，同时逻辑密度将提升 20% 以上。台积电凭借 其在纳米片晶体管设计与技术协同优化方面的经验，正在将其 TSMC NanoFlex 标准单元架构升 级为 NanoFlex Pro，从而实现更高的性能、能效和设计灵活性。 台积电董事长兼首席执行官魏哲家博士表示："我们的客户始终着眼于未来，而台积电的技术领导 力和卓越的制造能力为他们提供了可靠的创新路线图。台积电的尖端逻辑技术（例如 A14）是 ...

点击招商研究小程序查看PDF报告原文 台积电（TSMC，2330.TW）于4月17日发布2025年第一季度财报，25Q1收入255.3亿美元，同比+35. 3%/环比-5.1%；毛利率58.8%，同比+5.7pcts/环比-0.2pcts。公司指引AI加速芯片营收增长强劲，25Q2 收入预计同比加速增长，尚未看到关税带来客户提前拉货。综合财报及交流会议信息，总结要点如下： 评论： 1、25Q1收入符合指引预期，毛利率位于指引上限。 25Q1收入255.3亿美元，符合指引预期（250-258亿美元），以美元计同比+35.3%/环比-5.1%；环比下降 系智能手机季节性因素影响，部分被AI相关需求持续增长所抵消；毛利率58.8%，位于指引上限（57-5 9%），同比+5.7pcts/环比-0.2pcts，主要系地震及海外产能扩张所稀释，部分被成本改善措施抵消；公 司25Q1 EPS为13.94新台币，ROE为32.7%，ASP 3482美元/环比-0.4%。 2、HPC收入占比继续提升，7nm及以下收入占比73%。 1）按技术节点划分： 25Q1 3/5/7nm收入分别占比22%/36%/15%，7nm及以下先进 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter revenue decreased by 3.4% sequentially in NT dollars and 5.1% in U.S. dollars, impacted by smartphone seasonality but partially offset by growth in AI-related demand [5][6]. - Gross margin decreased by 0.2 percentage points sequentially to 58.8%, primarily due to the earthquake impact and the start of overseas dilution [6][15]. - Operating margin decreased by 0.5 percentage points sequentially to 48.5% [6]. - First quarter EPS was TWD 13.94 and ROE was 32.7% [6]. - Cash and marketable securities at the end of the first quarter totaled TWD 2.7 trillion or US$81 billion [9]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue contribution by technology: 3-nanometer process technology contributed 22% of wafer revenue, while 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer accounted for 36% and 15%, respectively [7]. - Revenue contribution by platform: HPC increased by 7% quarter-over-quarter to account for 59% of first quarter revenue, while smartphone decreased by 22% to 28% [8]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects second quarter revenue to be between US$28.4 billion and US$29.2 billion, representing a 13% sequential increase and a 38% year-over-year increase at the midpoint [13]. - The full-year 2025 revenue is expected to increase by close to mid-20s percent in U.S. dollar terms, supported by robust AI-related demand and a mild recovery in other end market segments [25]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to invest an additional US$100 billion in advanced semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S., bringing total investment to US$165 billion [31][36]. - The capital budget for 2025 is expected to be between US$38 billion and US$42 billion, with 70% allocated for advanced process technologies [18]. - The company aims for a long-term gross margin of 53% and higher, despite expected margin dilution from overseas fabs [16][17]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the January 21 earthquake impacted production but recovery efforts were successful [21]. - The company continues to observe robust AI-related demand and expects revenue from AI accelerators to double in 2025 [26]. - Management remains cautious about potential tariff impacts but has not seen changes in customer behavior so far [24][77]. Other Important Information - The company is working on balancing supply and demand for CoWoS capacity, with expectations of continued strong demand [50][145]. - The construction of new fabs in Arizona and Japan is ongoing, with plans to ramp up production based on customer demand [35][37]. Q&A Session Summary Question: AI demand and CoWoS capacity - Management acknowledged that while there have been rumors about CoWoS demand adjustments, the demand remains strong and is expected to exceed supply in 2026 [46][54]. Question: U.S. investment and tariff implications - Management clarified that the expansion in Arizona is driven by customer demand, particularly from U.S. companies, and they are in discussions with the U.S. government for necessary permits [61][62]. Question: Geopolitical risks and production planning - Management stated that they are mindful of potential impacts from recent tariff announcements but have not seen changes in customer behavior [76][77]. Question: Semiconductor tariffs and involvement in negotiations - Management confirmed that they do not get involved in tariff negotiations between governments [90]. Question: Revenue outlook and customer behavior - Management indicated that the strong second quarter guidance is driven by demand for 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer technologies, with no observed changes in customer behavior due to tariffs [99][101]. Question: Shareholder returns and buyback policy - Management reiterated their commitment to a sustainable and steadily increasing dividend policy rather than adopting a share buyback framework [152].