Core Viewpoint - TSMC reported record net profit for Q3 2025, but its stock price opened high and then fell due to market expectations of stronger AI demand and tight capacity, while TSMC remained conservative without increasing its capacity guidance or updating its CoWoS plans [1][5][11] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached $34.14 billion, a 30% year-over-year increase, with net profit of $15.5 billion, up 39% year-over-year [2][7] - Q3 gross margin improved to 59.5%, exceeding analyst expectations of 57.1%, while operating margin rose to 50.6% [1][7][10] - Q4 revenue guidance indicates a slight decline of 1% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting full capacity utilization [1][9] AI Demand and Market Trends - TSMC's Chairman noted that AI demand is significantly stronger than three months ago, driven by exponential growth in tokens, which are doubling approximately every three months [4][5][12] - The company is adopting a "Foundry 2.0" strategy to integrate advanced packaging and system-level performance optimization to meet AI-driven semiconductor demand [4][30] - TSMC's clients, including Nvidia, are increasingly relying on TSMC for chip production, indicating sustained demand for GPU chips [3][6] Capacity and Capital Expenditure - Q3 capital expenditure was $9.7 billion, with a total of $29.39 billion for the first nine months, reflecting ongoing capacity expansion to meet high demand [2][11] - TSMC plans to allocate 70% of its 2025 capital budget to advanced process technologies, with total capital expenditure expected to be between $40 billion and $42 billion [11][12] Customer Signals and Industry Outlook - TSMC is receiving strong signals from its customers' customers for increased capacity to support their business, reinforcing confidence in the fundamental demand for semiconductors [5][13] - The company is closely monitoring AI-related demand and is prepared to expand capacity in response to structural growth in the market [12][14] Global Manufacturing and Expansion Plans - TSMC is accelerating capacity expansion in Arizona, with plans for advanced packaging facilities to support customer needs [15][26] - The company is also expanding its manufacturing footprint in Japan and Europe, with ongoing projects in Kumamoto and Dresden [15][16] Technology and Innovation - TSMC's N2 technology is on track for production later this year, with expectations for rapid capacity ramp-up driven by demand in AI and high-performance computing applications [16][28] - The company emphasizes the importance of system-level performance over traditional transistor scaling, aligning with industry shifts [6][30]

证券研究报告 台积电 (TSM US) 2025 年 10 月 17 日│美国 半导体 3Q25，台积电收入环比+10.1%，略超指引上限，毛利率 59.5%，环比+0.9pct， 显著高于指引上限的 57.5%。公司预计 4Q25 收入 322-334 亿美元，中位 数高于彭博一致预期 5%，公司预计 4Q25 毛利率 59%-61%，中位数高于 彭博一致预期 3pct。公司上调 2025 年收入指引，即同比增长接近 35%（前 值:约 30%）。公司上调 2025 年资本开支预期为 400-420 亿美元（前值： 380-420 亿美元)，中值上调 2.5%，同比+38%。本次业绩会上，公司表达 了 AI 相关需求的增长表达强烈信心，预计 AI 相关需求的增速有望超过之前 指引（2024-2029：40%区间中段）。展望 2026 年，我们看好 AI 需求持续 驱动先进工艺和先进封装业务快速增长，台积电作为全球先进制程代工的龙 头，有望充分受益于技术领先地位和客户需求的强劲增长。上调目标价到 370 美元，维持买入评级。 AI 需求：客户提出更高的产能需求，对于 AI 大趋势的信心正在增强 3Q25，HP ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expectation for future growth [4]. Core Insights - The company reported Q2 2025 revenue of $30.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.8%. The gross margin was 58.6%, up 5.4 percentage points year-on-year but down 0.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. Net profit reached $12.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 60.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.2% [2]. - The company has raised its full-year revenue growth guidance to approximately 30%, driven primarily by demand for advanced processes. In Q2 2025, revenue from N3, N5, and N7 processes accounted for 24%, 36%, and 14% of total wafer revenue, respectively, totaling 74% [3]. - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the growing demand for AI chips, with projections for net profits of $49.686 billion, $60.379 billion, and $66.768 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of $30.07 billion, with a gross margin of 58.6% and net profit of $12.8 billion [2]. Operational Analysis - The decline in gross margin is attributed to the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar (TWD), which impacts revenue when converted from USD. A 1% appreciation in TWD results in a 1% revenue loss and a 40 basis points loss in gross margin. In Q2 2025, TWD appreciated by 4.4%, leading to a 180 basis points decline in gross margin, with further expected appreciation causing an additional 260 basis points loss [3]. - The company anticipates the first-generation N2 process to enter mass production in H2 2025, with subsequent processes expected in 2026 and 2028 [3]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company is positioned as a leader in the wafer foundry industry, with a competitive edge in advanced processes, expected to benefit from the rise in AI chip demand. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $49.686 billion, $60.379 billion, and $66.768 billion, respectively [4].

Core Insights - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is enhancing its nanosheet chip technology roadmap with N2, N2P, and A16 nodes to improve performance and efficiency, particularly for high-performance computing (HPC) and AI workloads [1][10] Group 1: Technology Advancements - The N2 logic node, TSMC's first generation of nanosheet transistor technology, offers a 10-15% speed improvement, 25-30% power improvement, and over 15% chip density gain compared to N3E, with volume production expected in the second half of 2025 [2] - N2P, an extension of the N2 family, is set to improve performance and power efficiency, while the A16 logic node is anticipated to deliver a 15-20% power improvement and an additional 7-10% chip density gain compared to N2P, both introduced in the first quarter of 2025 [4] Group 2: Customer Adoption - TSMC is securing significant customers like AMD and Apple for its N2 advanced logic node, with Apple planning to integrate these chips into future iPhones and Macs, and AMD aiming to enhance its CPUs and GPUs for competitive advantage [3] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Intel and GlobalFoundries are striving to catch up with TSMC, with Intel planning to launch its 2nm-based node, Intel 18A, in the second half of 2025, while GlobalFoundries focuses on specialized chips for automotive and IoT applications [6][7] Group 4: Market Position and Performance - TSMC's shares have increased by 9.7% year-to-date, outperforming the Semiconductor - Circuit Foundry industry's growth of 8.7% [8] - TSMC trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 9.08X, slightly above the industry average of 9.02X [12] Group 5: Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TSMC's earnings in 2025 and 2026 indicates year-over-year growth of 30.54% and 14.80%, respectively, with recent upward revisions for 2025 estimates and downward revisions for 2026 [15]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC unveiled a series of new technologies and updates to its roadmap at the TSMC Symposium 2025, highlighting the introduction of the second-generation GAA process, A14, which aims to enhance AI capabilities and improve performance and energy efficiency [1][2]. Group 1: A14 Technology - A14 represents a significant advancement over TSMC's N2 process, promising up to a 15% speed increase at the same power level or a 30% reduction in power consumption at the same speed, with a logic density improvement of over 20% [1][10]. - The A14 process is expected to enter mass production in 2028, with development progressing smoothly and yield achieved ahead of schedule [1][8]. - A14 will not support backside power delivery, with a version that does planned for 2029 [12][26]. Group 2: High-Performance Computing (HPC) - TSMC continues to advance its CoWoS technology to meet the increasing demand for logic and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) in AI applications, with plans for mass production of a 9.5 reticle size CoWoS by 2027 [2]. - The new SoW-X product, based on CoWoS, aims to create a wafer-sized system with 40 times the computing power of existing CoWoS solutions, also set for mass production in 2027 [2]. Group 3: Mobile Technology - TSMC's latest RF technology, N4C RF, reduces power consumption and area by 30% compared to N6RF+, making it suitable for AI applications and high-speed wireless connections, with risk production planned for Q1 2026 [4]. Group 4: Automotive Technology - TSMC's N3A process, which has passed AEC-Q100 certification, is designed to meet the stringent requirements of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous vehicles, with applications already in automotive production [5]. Group 5: IoT Technology - TSMC's ultra-low power N6e process has entered production, targeting future edge AI applications with improved energy efficiency [6]. Group 6: 3nm Technology Updates - TSMC plans to start production of the N3P process in Q4 2024, which offers a 5% performance increase or a 5-10% power reduction at the same leakage current compared to N3E, with a 4% increase in transistor density [15][18]. - N3X is expected to provide a 5% performance increase at the same power or a 7% power reduction at the same frequency, with mass production anticipated in the second half of 2025 [17]. Group 7: Advanced Packaging - TSMC's advanced packaging technologies are increasingly important, with innovations such as 3D chip stacking and integration of silicon photonics to meet the demands of high-performance AI applications [35][42]. - The integration of voltage regulators is crucial for optimizing power delivery in future AI accelerators, with TSMC developing high-density inductors to support this [47].