Core Viewpoint - GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc. reported a 15% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, driven by strong demand in consumer electronics, AI technology, and automotive electronics, alongside a strategic focus on market share growth [2][8][9] Company Overview and Financial Indicators - The company achieved a total revenue of approximately 4.15 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, compared to 3.61 billion RMB in the same period of the previous year [2] - The total profit for the period was approximately 596 million RMB, reflecting a 12.92% increase from 528 million RMB in the previous year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 575 million RMB, marking an 11.31% increase year-on-year [8] - The basic earnings per share rose to 0.87 RMB, up 11.54% from 0.78 RMB in the previous year [2] Business and Product Analysis - GigaDevice's main business includes the research, development, and sales of memory, microcontrollers, sensors, and analog chips, serving various sectors such as consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial applications [3][4] - The company is a leading player in the NOR Flash, SLC NAND Flash, and niche DRAM markets, ranking second globally in NOR Flash with an 18.5% market share [4][5] - The global integrated circuit market is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.3% from 2020 to 2024, driven by advancements in AI and automotive sectors [4][5] Market Trends and Growth Opportunities - The specialized storage market, including NOR Flash and SLC NAND Flash, is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.1% from 2025 to 2029, reaching a market size of approximately 20.82 billion USD [5] - The MCU market is projected to grow from 19.7 billion USD in 2024 to 29.3 billion USD by 2029, with a CAGR of 8.7% [6] - The sensor market, particularly for touch and fingerprint recognition, is also expected to expand significantly, driven by increasing demand in smartphones and smart home devices [7] Strategic Initiatives - The company is pursuing a global strategy to enhance its brand image and expand its international market presence, including plans to issue H-shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [16] - GigaDevice emphasizes technological innovation and market empowerment, focusing on product development and industry applications to improve operational efficiency and competitiveness [11][18] - The company maintains a Fabless model, outsourcing manufacturing while concentrating on design and customer service, allowing for flexibility and rapid market response [22][23]

2025年8月22日 证券研究报告 | 中观高频景气图谱（2025.8） 上游资源行业景气提振 策略研究 · 策略专题 证券分析师：王开 联系人：陈凯畅 021-60933132 021-60375429 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn chenkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 S0980523090002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 目录 01 中观超额收益追踪 图1：基础化工行业超额收益与燃料油收盘价 图2：基础化工行业超额收益与甲醇期货收盘价 图3：基础化工行业超额收益与聚氯乙烯期货收盘价 图4：基础化工行业超额收益与国产氯化钾批发价 图5：基础化工行业超额收益与尿素批发价 资料来源：万得，国信证券经济研究所整理。 资料来源：万得，国信证券经济研究所整理。 资料来源：万得，国信证券经济研究所整理。 期货收盘 价(连 续):燃料 油:月:平 均值:同 比 期货收盘 价(连 续):甲 醇:月:平 均值:同 比 期货收盘 价(连 续):聚氯 乙 烯 (PVC): 月:平均 值:同比 批发价: 国产氯化 钾:国内: 月:平均 值:同比 批 ...

智通财经APP获悉，长城证券发布研报称，AI大算力浪湖催生新动能，芯片国产替代坚定推进，重点关 注AI产业链相关公司及"龙头低估"&"困境反转"企业。国产AI存力产业链方面，供给端减产及AI相关需 求强劲，推动存储价格继续上涨，TrendForce预计25Q3 DRAM合约价环比提升5%~10%，NAND合约价 环比提升5%~10%。同时，国内云计算与互联网厂商资本开支增长，国产替代趋势不改。 HBM供需研判：测算2025-2026年HBM S/D Ratio将分别达45%/27%，供需差距缺口有望进一步缩小。 HBM价格研判：预计25年/26年HBM ASP将达1.76/1.84美元/Gb，高端产品迭代助推未来价格上行 五、HBM未来演进：HBM4 16Hi或26年落地，散热/键合等技术升级适配未来需求 拆解HBM需求：CSP(云服务提供商)资本开支加码，AI服务器量增&HBM配置升级，共推需求高增。 HBM市场爆发：AI服务器拉动下，AI服务器拉动下，预计25年/26年HBM总位元需求量同比增速分别达 +89%/+67%。HBM下游应用场景：25年AI服务器出货占比将升至15%以上，未来两年AI服务器出货 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The HBM market is projected to reach $46 billion by 2026, accounting for 35% of the DRAM market, with a CAGR of 33% from 2024 to 2030 [3][25] - AI-driven demand is significantly increasing, with the average storage capacity per AI server expected to double or quadruple, leading to exponential growth in total storage demand [3][12] - Major semiconductor manufacturers are ramping up HBM production, with capital expenditures for 2025 expected to exceed initial plans [3][12] Demand Side Summary - AI server shipments are forecasted to grow by 17.2% year-on-year, reaching 2.51 million units by 2026, driven by increased capital expenditures from major cloud service providers [6][25] - The average HBM capacity per AI server is expected to increase by 8 to 16 times due to higher configurations and the transition to next-generation HBM technologies [6][12] - The total HBM demand is projected to reach 34.05 billion GB by 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 67% [25] Supply Side Summary - Major manufacturers like Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung are actively expanding HBM production capacity, with significant increases in capital expenditures planned for 2025 [3][12] - The supply of HBM is currently adequate, but the high growth in demand and the transition to higher-end HBM generations are expected to drive prices upward [11][12] - The competitive landscape is dominated by a few key players, with the market share of SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron expected to shift from 5:3:2 to 5:2:3 by 2026 [12] Price Outlook - The average selling price (ASP) of HBM is expected to rise to $1.84 per Gb by 2026, driven by the demand for high-end products [12][25] - The HBM market is currently in an upward price cycle, influenced by the recovery in terminal demand due to AI applications [3][12] Industry Overview - The semiconductor storage market is characterized by oligopolistic competition, with the top three manufacturers holding over 95% market share in DRAM and HBM [3][12] - The overall semiconductor storage market is projected to reach $165.5 billion in 2024, representing over 25% of the semiconductor market [3][12]

风险提示：股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 8月19日，兆易创新发生一笔大宗交易，成交2万股，金额246.52万元，成交价与当日收盘价持平。近3 个月内，该股累计发生3笔大宗交易，合计成交金额2079.42万元。 资金流向方面，兆易创新8月19日主力资金净流出3.03亿元，占流通市值的0.37%。近5日主力资金净流 入4089.64万元，占流通市值的0.05%。 截至2025年8月19日15时，兆易创新股价报123.26元，较前一交易日下跌1.94%。当日开盘价为125.48 元，最高触及128.88元，最低下探至122.85元，成交量为32.32万手，成交额达40.46亿元。 兆易创新主营业务为半导体存储芯片的设计与销售，产品涵盖NOR Flash、NAND Flash及MCU等，广 泛应用于消费电子、物联网、汽车电子等领域。公司总部位于北京，是国内半导体行业的重要企业之 一。 ...

Investment Rating - The semiconductor industry is rated as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is currently in an upward cycle, driven significantly by AI as a key growth engine [4][5] - North America's four major cloud providers (Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon) have increased capital expenditures, with a total of $87.4 billion in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 69% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 23% [3][4] - Global semiconductor sales continued to grow year-on-year, with June 2025 sales increasing by 19.6%, marking the 20th consecutive month of growth [4][21] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - In July 2025, the domestic semiconductor industry rose by 3.06%, underperforming the CSI 300 index which increased by 3.54% [10] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 1.11% in July 2025, while the Nasdaq 100 increased by 2.38% [12][18] 2. Global Semiconductor Sales - Global semiconductor sales in June 2025 reached approximately $59.9 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 19.6% and a month-on-month increase of 1.5% [21][22] - The WSTS forecasts a global semiconductor market sales growth of 11.2% in 2025, reaching $700.9 billion [23] 3. Capital Expenditure Trends - Google raised its 2025 capital expenditure budget from $75 billion to $85 billion, while Meta's budget increased to $66-72 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 68%-84% [3][4] - Microsoft is expected to exceed $30 billion in capital expenditures in Q3 2025 [5] 4. AI and Market Dynamics - The demand for AI computing hardware infrastructure remains strong, with significant investments in PCB, copper connections, and optical chips [5] - The penetration rate of AI smartphones is expected to rise rapidly to 34% by 2025, while AI PC penetration is projected to reach 35% [4][5] 5. Price Trends - In July 2025, the monthly spot prices for DRAM and NAND Flash continued to rise, with expectations for further increases in Q3 2025 [4][21]

Core Viewpoint - Lam Research and Tokyo Electron (TEL) are competing for orders from Samsung Electronics for the next-generation 400-layer NAND Flash manufacturing process, having both passed performance evaluations for new technology [2][3] Group 1: Competitive Landscape - Lam Research has successfully completed quality assessments for Samsung's 10th generation NAND Flash (V10) low-temperature etching equipment, which allows for finer circuit patterns [2] - TEL completed its performance evaluation approximately three months prior to Lam Research, receiving Process of Record (POR) approval in April [3] - Both companies are now in a competitive phase for supply, as Samsung is expected to consider both Lam Research and TEL when building production infrastructure for V10 NAND [3] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The low-temperature etching process operates at -60 to -70 degrees Celsius, which is 30 to 40 degrees lower than traditional methods, making it a highly specialized technology [2] - The increase in NAND layers necessitates deeper channel holes with a higher aspect ratio, prompting the need for new processing technologies [2] Group 3: Market Expectations - With the completion of equipment performance evaluations, Samsung is anticipated to initiate procurement orders soon, aiming to establish V10 NAND production lines in the first half of next year [3] - Following trial production, Samsung plans to commence mass production in the latter half of the year [3]

Group 1: Lexin Group (乐信集团) - The company is experiencing a continuous improvement in profitability, with a significant year-on-year net profit growth of 126% in Q2 2025, reaching 511 million yuan, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19% [1][2] - The improvement in profitability is primarily attributed to a decrease in provisioning expenses and an increase in revenue, with the net take rate reaching 1.92%, up 34 basis points quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company maintains a buy rating with a target price of $11.80, indicating a potential upside of 73.5% from the current price of $6.80 [1][2] Group 2: Legend Biotech (传奇生物) - The company reported adjusted earnings in Q2 2025, with Carvykti sales reaching $439 million, marking a 19% year-on-year and 136% quarter-on-quarter increase, setting a new record for CAR-T therapy sales in a single quarter [8][9] - Despite a net loss of $125 million, the company achieved adjusted net profit of $10 million after excluding non-operating items, indicating a turnaround from previous losses [8] - The target price has been raised to $74, reflecting a potential upside of 100% from the current price of $37 [8][9] Group 3: Rui Pu Lan Jun (瑞浦兰钧) - The company experienced a 25% revenue growth in the first half of 2025, with sales of lithium battery products doubling year-on-year to 32.4 GWh [10][11] - Gross margin improved significantly, rising by 5.9 percentage points to 8.5%, while net loss decreased by 85% to 65.32 million yuan [10] - The target price has been adjusted to 15.46 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 33.8% from the current price of 11.55 HKD [10][11] Group 4: Battery Industry - In July 2025, the growth rate of battery installations slowed, with a total of 55.9 GWh installed, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% but a month-on-month decrease of 4% [14][15] - Battery exports remained robust, with July exports reaching 23.2 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 35.4%, despite a month-on-month decline of 4.7% [15] - The supply-demand balance is expected to support lithium prices, especially with the suspension of operations at a key lithium mine [15]

Core Viewpoint - SMIC's second-quarter financial results showed a revenue of $2.209 billion, a 1.7% decrease quarter-on-quarter but a 16.2% increase year-on-year. However, net profit fell to $133 million, down 19% year-on-year, missing market expectations of $167 million [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2, SMIC's revenue was $2.209 billion, reflecting a 1.7% decrease from the previous quarter but a 16.2% increase year-on-year [2]. - The net profit for Q2 was $133 million, which is a 19% decline compared to the same period last year, falling short of market expectations [3]. - Following the earnings report, SMIC's AH shares experienced significant declines, with a 3.04% drop in Hong Kong and a 1.30% drop in A-shares [3]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Orders - SMIC's current order volume is in a state of supply-demand imbalance, with demand exceeding supply [7][11]. - CEO Zhao Haijun expressed optimism about the semiconductor industry's growth for this year and next, predicting stable growth unless extreme scenarios occur [5][36]. - Despite external pressures from tariffs, Zhao indicated that the impact on SMIC's revenue would be minimal, estimating it to be less than 10% of customer revenues [12][16]. Group 3: Investment Trends - Despite the challenges, some fund managers increased their positions in SMIC, citing opportunities in domestic semiconductor manufacturing and advanced process breakthroughs [4]. - SMIC remains a favorite among public funds, ranking among the top ten holdings with a market value exceeding 40 billion yuan, although the number of shares held decreased by 11.58% in Q2 [3][4]. Group 4: Strategic Developments - SMIC is focusing on meeting the demands of strategic customers by expanding its product offerings, particularly in power devices and analog chips [20][22]. - The company is also adapting to the growing demand for 8-inch wafers, primarily driven by domestic customers, while maintaining competitiveness in the international market [24][26]. Group 5: Pricing Strategy - SMIC has not actively raised or lowered prices, with ASP (average selling price) expected to rise due to a shift in product mix rather than direct price increases [28][30]. - The company maintains a cautious approach to pricing, ensuring that it does not compromise its market position while responding to competitive pressures [30]. Group 6: Industry Trends - The semiconductor industry is projected to grow steadily, with expectations of a 5%-6% increase in the coming year, driven by AI and other technological advancements [38]. - The demand for networking and storage-related products is expected to remain strong, with significant growth potential in domestic manufacturing of NAND Flash and DRAM [31][33].

Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a strong upward trend, with significant gains in key indices and ETFs, driven by AI-related developments and market sentiment [2][5][6] Market Performance - The China Securities Semiconductor Industry Index rose by 2.89% as of August 12, 2025, with notable individual stock performances, including Shanghai Hejing and Cambricon, both up by 20% [2] - The Semiconductor Industry ETF saw a 2.78% increase, with a recent price of 1.52 yuan, and a one-month cumulative increase of 2.93% [2] - The STAR Market Chip Index increased by 3.78%, with similar strong performances from key stocks [5] Liquidity and Trading Activity - The Semiconductor Industry ETF had a turnover rate of 13.05% and a trading volume of 23.71 million yuan, indicating active market participation [2] - The STAR Market Chip ETF had a turnover rate of 8.7% and a trading volume of 16.55 million yuan [5] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Global AI product iterations are driving up token consumption, with Google processing nearly 1 trillion tokens in June, doubling from May [7] - Domestic companies like Huawei and Baidu are advancing their AI capabilities, with Huawei previewing breakthrough technologies at a recent forum [7] Investment Trends - Upcoming AI industry conferences in September and October are expected to enhance industry communication and attract capital [7] - The semiconductor sector is poised to replicate overseas trends, with increasing domestic applications and self-developed chips [8] Sector Analysis - AI and high-performance computing remain core growth drivers, with strong demand for HBM and AI chips [9] - The semiconductor industry is expected to see price increases in storage markets, particularly for NAND Flash and DDR products [9] ETF Performance Metrics - The Semiconductor Industry ETF has seen a significant increase in scale and shares, with a one-week scale growth of 6.83 million yuan and a share increase of 6 million [10] - The ETF has achieved a one-year net value increase of 41.44% and a historical holding probability of 100% for one-year profitability [10] Risk and Fee Structure - The management fee for the Semiconductor Industry ETF is 0.50%, with a custody fee of 0.10%, among the lowest in comparable funds [13] - The tracking error for the ETF is 0.012%, indicating high tracking precision [14]