存储涨价

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江波龙(301308):存储涨价周期核心标的,TCM模式+企业级存储+自研主控构筑长期高毛利高壁垒
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-07-20 15:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 115.2 CNY, reflecting an expected relative return of over 20% within six months [6][16]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a core player in the storage price increase cycle, benefiting from both price and volume growth in the storage market, with expected quarterly performance improvements in 2025 [1]. - The company is recognized as a leader in domestic substitution, with significant growth projected in enterprise-level storage products, forecasting revenues of 922 million CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 666.3% [2]. - The self-developed controller technology is establishing a technical barrier, enhancing the company's profitability and operational efficiency through its TCM model, which integrates supply chain management and customer relationships [3]. - The investment thesis highlights a dual logic of "cycle + growth," with short-term benefits from storage price increases, medium-term revenue growth from domestic enterprise storage, and long-term profitability through self-developed chips and TCM model [4]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 23.05 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 32% [5]. - The expected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is revised down to 480 million CNY, with subsequent years showing significant growth to 1.61 billion CNY in 2026 and 2.08 billion CNY in 2027 [5]. - The EBITDA for 2025 is estimated at 2.41 billion CNY, reflecting a strong operational performance [5]. Market Position - The company ranks third in China for enterprise-level SATA SSD total capacity in 2024, showcasing its capability in eSSD and RDIMM product design and supply [2]. - The company has successfully adapted its PCIe SSD and SATA SSD series to multiple domestic CPU platforms, expanding its customer base across various industries [2].