"低估了今年市场需求，是我今年犯下的最大错误。" 智能眼镜Rokid创始人祝铭明在近期发出如此感叹。Rokid本以为2025年产品能卖10-15万副，但今年至今已获的20万订单让祝铭明感到既幸福又感到苦 恼。 纵观整个智能眼镜产业，无疑正处于产品爆发期。 根据IDC数据，2025上半年，全球智能眼镜市场出货量达406.5万台，同比增长64.2%。天猫双11于10月30日数据显示，智能眼镜成交额同比暴涨25倍，成 为3C数码行业增长最快的品类之一。其中Rokid成交增长超7倍，雷鸟同比增长超80%。京东在8月26日发布的智能眼镜半年报也显示，2025年上半年智能 眼镜的成交量同比增长超过10倍，入驻品牌数量也增加了3倍。 | 林林总总算下来，今年市场上共计冒出多达几十款新品也让整个智能眼镜市场的竞争变得空前激烈。 | | --- | | | | | | | 2025重点智能眼镜一览 | | 光锥智能 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ■商 | 发布时 间 | 产品名称 | 价格 | 显示方案 | 续航 | Al支持 | 重 ...

Core Insights - The AI glasses market is experiencing a paradox of high sales growth alongside high return rates, indicating a disconnect between consumer expectations and product performance [1][2] - Major tech companies are entering the AI glasses space, but many products are perceived as "geek toys" rather than mainstream consumer items, leading to disappointment among users [2][3] - The industry faces significant challenges, including technological limitations, fragmented supply chains, and unclear use cases, which hinder widespread adoption [8][9] Market Dynamics - Nearly 70 manufacturers are competing in the AI glasses market, with product prices ranging from 999 yuan to 3999 yuan, covering various functionalities such as audio interaction and near-eye display [2][3] - IDC reports that global smart glasses shipments reached 4.065 million units in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 64.2% [2] - Despite impressive sales figures during events like Double 11, high return rates (up to 50% on platforms like Douyin) reveal underlying consumer dissatisfaction [2][3] Technological Challenges - The industry struggles with the "impossible triangle" of achieving lightweight design, long battery life, and high performance in AI glasses [9][13] - Current battery life for most products ranges from 4 to 7 hours, but actual usage often results in significantly reduced performance due to active features [9][11] - The lack of a unified performance evaluation standard exacerbates consumer frustration, as many products fail to meet user expectations [8][14] Competitive Landscape - Major players like Xiaomi and Baidu are adopting different strategies, with Xiaomi focusing on affordability and Baidu emphasizing localized features [5][7] - Cross-industry collaborations are intensifying competition, with companies like Shanjiji Technology offering low-cost options to capture the budget market [7][8] - The market is characterized by a rush to release products without adequate development time, leading to poor user experiences and high return rates [8][14] Future Outlook - The resolution of the current industry challenges hinges on achieving a "triple resonance" of technology, market demand, and ecosystem collaboration [17][19] - The path to success may mirror the evolution of smartphones, requiring breakthroughs in core technologies and the establishment of a cohesive industry ecosystem [17][19] - Stakeholders, including consumers and manufacturers, must exercise patience and focus on refining products and understanding user needs to foster long-term growth [19]

Core Insights - Rokid has established itself as a leading player in the smart glasses market, achieving significant sales milestones and positioning itself as a major contender by 2025 [2][10] - The company emphasizes a user-driven approach, having completed over 200 product updates since the launch of its smart glasses, enhancing functionality and user experience [5][10] - Rokid's strategy includes breaking out of the traditional tech-savvy user demographic, attracting a more diverse user base across various professions [8][10] Company Overview - Rokid has been operational for 11 years, raising over 3.5 billion RMB through 13 funding rounds, with notable investors including Temasek and IDG Capital [2] - The company aims to redefine user interaction in the AI era, moving away from traditional devices like smartphones and computers to smart glasses as the new interface [2][3] Product Development - Rokid has partnered with various companies to launch innovative applications, including navigation, payment, and music experiences tailored for smart glasses [5] - The introduction of "Rokid Care," an insurance product for accidental damage, reflects the company's commitment to enhancing user confidence in smart hardware [5] Market Expansion - The user demographic for Rokid Glasses has shifted significantly, with only 16% of users being from the tech industry, indicating a successful expansion into broader markets [8] - The collaboration with BOLON to create stylish AI smart glasses highlights the company's focus on merging fashion with technology, aiming to attract a wider audience [9][10] Future Outlook - The partnership with BOLON is expected to enhance market competitiveness and innovation, positioning smart glasses as a fashionable and functional accessory [10] - The industry is witnessing a transformation where smart glasses are seen not just as tech devices but as a new medium for personal expression and lifestyle [10]

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 53.663 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.08%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.843 billion yuan, up 19.91% [1] - The smartphone and computer business saw significant growth driven by the iPhone 17, with the company benefiting from its core glass cover and metal frame contributions [2] - The smart automotive sector is expanding with new product offerings, including ultra-thin laminated glass, and the company is enhancing its production capabilities [3] - The company is positioned as a leading platform in the smart terminal industry, integrating various components and embracing AI trends [4] - Profit forecasts indicate a net profit of 5.070 billion yuan in 2025, increasing to 8.182 billion yuan by 2027 [5] Smartphone and Computer Business - The iPhone 17 has seen a substantial increase in sales compared to the iPhone 16, solidifying the company's position in the supply chain [2] - The company’s metal frame business is benefiting from innovations in the iPhone 17 Pro series [2] - Future opportunities include the anticipated launch of the first foldable iPhone in 2026, where the company holds numerous patents in relevant technologies [2] Smart Automotive Business - The company has successfully expanded its product matrix in the smart automotive sector, introducing wireless charging modules and vehicle communication modules [3] - The introduction of ultra-thin laminated glass into domestic leading automotive manufacturers' production systems marks a significant achievement [3] - The company is relocating its Mexican factory to improve revenue and profit margins in the future [3] Other Innovative Businesses - The company is leveraging its full-chain integration capabilities in the emerging smart terminal market, covering various segments including AI glasses and intelligent retail [4] - Collaboration with Rokid for AI glasses has led to rapid sales growth and successful mass production [4] - The company is making substantial progress in the embodied intelligence sector, with core components being delivered in bulk [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [10]. Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of 53.663 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.08%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.843 billion yuan, up 19.91% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 2.703 billion yuan, growing by 28.72% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the company reported a single-quarter revenue of 20.702 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.25%, and a net profit of 1.700 billion yuan, up 12.62% year-on-year. The gross margin for Q3 was 19.09%, down 2.34 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 8.21%, down 0.49 percentage points year-on-year [2][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Business Performance - The company has shown strong performance in the smartphone and computer sectors, benefiting from the significant sales increase of the iPhone 17, which has contributed to core revenue growth. The company is positioned as a leading player in the glass cover and metal frame segments, with expectations for continued growth as new products are launched [14]. Automotive Sector - The company is expanding into the smart automotive sector, introducing a range of products including wireless charging modules and vehicle communication modules. The integration of consumer electronics-grade glass processing technology into automotive applications is expected to enhance revenue and margins as production capabilities are developed [14]. Innovation and AI Integration - The company is leveraging its vertical integration capabilities across the smart terminal market, including AI glasses and smart retail solutions. Collaborations with leading companies in the field are yielding positive results, with expectations for increased orders as new smart terminal products emerge [14]. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 5.070 billion yuan, 6.956 billion yuan, and 8.182 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating [14].

在热火朝天宣传了一个季度之后，小米 AI 眼镜终究还是渐渐淡出了我们的视野。 9 月初就有不少媒体报道小米 AI 眼镜销量"高开低走"，在产品营销层面别说没有久未露面的雷军给这款产品打广告了，10 月 15 日开直播给红米 K90 系列 预热的小米集团总裁兼手机部总裁卢伟冰，也换上了普通的眼镜，丝毫没有给小米 AI眼镜带货一下的意思。 随后在 10 月 31 日，有媒体爆出曾主导了小米 AI 眼镜立项和商业化进程的可穿戴部创新产品业务负责人李创奇从小米离职，一下子让小米AI 眼镜的未来变 得朴素迷离。 尽管见到了小米 AI 眼镜的销量高开低走，甚至核心负责人离职的动荡，但并未浇灭市场对这条赛道的热情，投入反而越来越大。比如近期备受瞩目的科技 圈顶流、「影视飓风」创始人 Tim（潘天鸿），他又解锁了一个全新的身份： 国内 AI 眼镜品牌，Rokid乐奇的品牌代言人。 要知道，小米、魅族、阿里、百度这等跨界做 AI 眼镜的大公司，都没有专门找"代言人"来为产品站台。 而 Rokid，一个来自杭州的，仅专注于智能眼镜品类的小公司，却愿意花重金拿下当前科技圈中的顶流大明星，很难不让人想起 AI眼镜赛道的天花板，签下 ...

Market Overview - In Q3 2025, the sales volume of China's consumer-grade AR/VR glasses reached 169,000 units, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 17% and a year-on-year growth of 57% [2][5] - The growth is primarily driven by the continuous launch of new AR devices, optimization of upstream supply chain costs, and deep integration of AI technology [2][5] Sales Performance - The overall XR market in China reached 169,000 units in Q3 2025, with consumer-grade AR devices being the main growth driver, achieving sales of 130,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 109% [5] - Consumer-grade VR device sales were 40,000 units, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 8%, supported by Meta's low-price strategy [5] Technological Innovations - Continuous breakthroughs in display and optical technologies are leading the transformation in the AR/VR industry [6] Brand Performance - The AR brand Thunderbird continues to lead the market, while Rokid's new products have emerged strongly, with VR market competition intensifying and leading brands narrowing the gap [7] Investment and Financing Trends - In Q3 2025, there were 33 financing deals in the AR/VR industry globally, totaling approximately 5.5 billion yuan, with 18 deals occurring in China [8] - Upstream hardware and terminal manufacturers are becoming the focus of capital investment, with companies like JBD and Yanshan Technology actively investing in Micro LED display technology [8] - The integration of AI with hardware and software ecosystems is a significant trend, indicating capital's keen insight into the future of AR/VR technology [8] Market Dynamics - Fast LCD screens have captured 91% of the low-end VR market, with BOE holding a 43% market share [8] - Micro OLED technology faces challenges but remains a strong contender in the high-end market, with a 73% share in AR devices [8] - The Pancake optical solution maintains a leading position with a 49% market share, despite a slight contraction [8] Key Product Launches - Thunderbird launched AIR 4 and AIR 4 PRO, introducing HDR display technology and AI 3D video capabilities, significantly enhancing visual experience [8] - Rokid's new product launch has propelled it to the second position in sales, marking a significant highlight for the quarter [8] - Meta's Quest 3S has seen increased sales due to its low-price strategy, further narrowing the gap with the leading brand in the VR market [8]

Core Insights - The application of AI is maturing, leading to a rise in AI hardware investments, with over 114 financing rounds and a total amount exceeding 14.5 billion yuan by mid-2025 [1] - AI glasses, toys, and learning machines are transitioning from niche markets to mainstream visibility, with significant sales during events like Double 11 [1][28] - Despite high prices, consumer acceptance of AI glasses is increasing, with a notable rise in sales and interest in AI functionalities [7][9] AI Glasses - AI glasses are priced comparably to smartphones but lack the same energy and functionality, leading to mixed sales results [2][10] - Quark AI glasses achieved top sales on Tmall, with a pre-sale price of 4,699 yuan, dropping to 3,899 yuan during promotions [2] - Rokid Glasses, priced at 3,299 yuan, saw a 7-fold increase in sales compared to the previous year [4] - Xiaomi's AI glasses, priced at 1,999 yuan, sold over 50,000 units on JD, indicating a strong market presence despite lower sales compared to smartphones [5][10] - The market for AI glasses is expected to grow significantly, with a projected shipment of 290.7 million units by 2025, reflecting a 121.1% year-on-year increase [7][11] AI Toys - AI toys are gaining traction, with products like "Furball" and "Listening Cow" achieving notable sales during promotional events [12][15] - The price sensitivity of consumers is high, with many preferring to stay within a budget of 300-1,000 yuan [17] - The market for AI toys is characterized by a lack of differentiation, leading to high return rates and challenges in consumer acceptance [18] AI Learning Machines - AI learning machines are positioned as the most mature AI hardware category, directly addressing user pain points [19] - Popular models from Xueersi and iFLYTEK are priced between 5,499 and 10,959 yuan, with strong sales figures reported [21][23] - The market for learning machines is expected to grow, with a low penetration rate among the K12 student population, indicating significant future potential [26] - The sales strategy combines online and offline channels, with online sales accounting for 70.1% of total sales in the learning tablet market [24][25] Market Trends - The surge in AI hardware sales during promotional events signals a shift from niche to mainstream consumer products [28] - The challenge remains for AI hardware to meet consumer needs and provide clear value propositions to drive broader adoption [28]

Core Insights - Meta's AI glasses have sold out again, indicating strong demand for its products, including the Oakley Meta Vanguard and upgraded Ray-Ban Meta AI glasses [1] - The overall smart glasses market in China is still in its early stages, with no clear leading brand yet, suggesting potential for various brands to emerge as market leaders [2] - The Chinese smart glasses market is experiencing significant growth, with a reported 116.1% year-on-year increase in shipments [4] Group 1: Meta's Performance - Meta's smart glasses series sold approximately 750,000 units in Q2, a 50% increase from Q1, with total sales for the first half of the year reaching 1.26 million units [1] - The total sales of Meta's smart glasses are nearing 3 million units, showcasing the brand's strong market presence [1] Group 2: Competitor Landscape - Domestic brands like Alibaba, Baidu, and Xiaomi are entering the smart glasses market, with Xiaomi's AI glasses achieving 30,000 activations in the first week, setting a record for sales speed [2][3] - Rokid announced a sales figure of 300,000 units for its Rokid Glasses, although this figure has been met with skepticism due to lack of transparency in actual sales data [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The smart glasses market in China is characterized by rapid growth, with a reported 82.3% increase in global shipments, and a 145.5% increase in China's shipments in Q2 [4] - Despite the growth, the overall scale of the smart glasses market remains small compared to smartphones, indicating that it is still a niche market [4] Group 4: Supply Chain Challenges - The industry faces supply chain issues, with manufacturers inflating sales figures to gain leverage in negotiations, which complicates the development and production processes [5][7] - Companies like Rokid are experiencing delays and price increases, attributed to supply chain problems and the inability to meet production standards [10] Group 5: Future Outlook - The smart glasses industry lacks a clear development path, with questions about whether products will focus on high-performance hardware or serve as ecosystem platforms [11] - The entry of larger companies into the market may lead to a reshuffling of existing players, with smaller brands potentially facing challenges in maintaining market share [11]

Core Insights - The integration of AI and optical technology is accelerating the transition of AR glasses from product iteration to consumer market, positioning AI+AR glasses as the core interface for personal computing in the next generation [1] - The current trend of "display + AI + ecosystem" demands lightweight, high-brightness, and low-power solutions, making technological breakthroughs and collaborative evolution crucial to overcoming industry bottlenecks [1] XR Industry Overview - The XR industry is transitioning from the PC and mobile era to the XR era, with significant attention from national leadership [3] - The evolution of the XR industry can be divided into three phases: - 2010-2017: Emergence phase with AR and VR as niche markets, driven by Oculus, HTC, and Sony [3] - 2018-2021: Market differentiation phase with the Quest series leading in VR device sales, achieving a global installed base of approximately 20 million units [3] - 2022-present: New development phase with the introduction of Apple's Vision Pro, indicating new possibilities for information interaction [4] Market Trends and Device Types - The current market features four main types of XR devices: 1. VR/XR devices using LCD and Pancake solutions, with the highest shipment volume 2. Semi-immersive AR devices primarily using silicon-based OLED and BB optical solutions 3. AI+AR devices predominantly utilizing Micro LED technology, with significant orders for products like Rokid Glasses 4. Non-display AI devices, which include camera and audio types [4][5] Display Technology and Challenges - The XR market is currently dominated by Fast-LCD displays, accounting for 69% of the market, while silicon-based OLED is gaining share [7] - Key challenges in the industry include device weight and price, display quality, cost issues, and power consumption [9] - The industry consensus is that waveguide technology can achieve lightweight, all-day wearable AR glasses, but current display technologies and waveguide efficiencies need improvement [6][9] Technological Innovations - The introduction of Field Stack Lighting (FSL) technology by Yunlight Technology enhances display performance through digital driving methods, achieving higher refresh rates and better display quality [10][11] - Yunlight Technology has made significant advancements in micro-display technology, with plans for mass production of silicon-based OLED micro-displays [12] Future Outlook - The XR industry is expected to experience a significant breakthrough akin to the "iPhone moment," contingent on the readiness of the hardware supply chain and the availability of compelling content [23][24] - The next five years are critical for capacity planning and market growth, with expectations for increased device shipments and user engagement [25]