把握AI与改革双重机遇 ● 本报记者 黄灵灵 日前，翼虎投资董事长余定恒在接受中国证券报记者采访时表示，2026年的资本市场，重构是核心关键 词，全球格局、产业生态、市场逻辑的多重重构，让市场充满机遇也暗藏挑战。A股有望在国际贸易摩 擦缓和及国内产业转型升级双重影响下稳步上行，投资的关键在于穿透波动表象，把握AI深化发展与 传统产业供给侧结构性改革带来的确定性机会。 余定恒强调，在这样的市场中，与其追逐短期的情绪波动与概念炒作，不如沉下心把握产业升级的主 线，锚定持续创造价值的企业，这既是对产业趋势的尊重，也是对投资本质的回归。 A股有望稳步上行 余定恒认为，2026年的资本市场，正被两股重构力量深刻影响，即国际贸易关系与国内产业发展趋势。 在他看来，这是理解A股全年走势的关键。 在国际贸易关系层面，余定恒认为，在复杂的国际贸易局势下，中国对外贸易不仅没有被削弱，反而顶 住逆风逆流实现增长，这种实力使得外部压力出现结构性松动，成为影响市场的重要宏观变量。 在国内产业层面，有两方面投资机遇：短期而言，国际贸易摩擦导致部分传统产业供给收缩、产能出 清，使得产业迎来价值重估；长期来看，AI正深度重塑各行各业的发展， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the three leading companies in the A-share CPO concept, "Yizhongtian," have released their 2025 performance forecasts, showing significant increases in net profits [1] - Relevant institutions indicate that overseas cloud vendors maintain an optimistic outlook on capital expenditures and guidance in the AI sector, suggesting that growth in capital expenditures will continue into next year [1] - Historical trends suggest that the market often underestimates the annual growth rate of cloud vendors' capital expenditures at the beginning of the year, leading to discrepancies in expectations [1] Group 2 - In terms of fundamentals, NVIDIA is set to launch the Rubin architecture in 2026, with accompanying optical modules upgraded to 1.6T; by 2027, a new trend of "optical modules in cabinets" is expected to emerge [1] - The market size for in-cabinet optical modules is projected to be 4-5 times larger than that of the out-of-cabinet market, indicating substantial growth potential [1] - Analysts have high expectations for the shipment volume of optical modules in 2026, which may lead to a supply-demand imbalance in the industry [1] Group 3 - The communication ETF (515880) has been the top performer in 2025, with an annual increase of 125.81%, making it the highest in the market [1] - Not only does the communication ETF (515880) show impressive growth, but it also holds the largest scale among its peers, with over 46% of its content in optical modules and nearly 20% in servers as of December 31, 2025 [1] - This ETF represents the fundamental strength of overseas computing power and remains a preferred choice in a favorable market environment, warranting continued attention [1]

在AI基础设施的指引乐观和应用端逐步落地的背景下，AI的高景气料将延续，光模块市场在今年仍有 望保持高增速。 海外云厂商在AI领域的资本开支及指引仍保持乐观，我们有理由相信明年的资本开支增长仍将得以延 续。值得注意的是，根据过去两年的经验，市场往往在年初大幅低估云厂商的全年资本开支增速，导致 预期差。 在此背景下，相关产业链企业仍处于产能扩张阶段，业绩上限或将由供给能力决定。我们仍看好通信 ETF（515880）等深度参与海外算力产业链的A股相关标的，该产品的光模块+服务器占比超66%，是投 资者一键配置AI算力基础设施板块的高效工具。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 从基本面来看，2026年英伟达将推出Rubin架构，配套光模块将升级至1.6T；至2027年，光模块领域有 望出现"光入柜内"的新趋势。柜内光模块的市场规模预计将达到柜外市场的4-5倍，增长空间广阔。目 前分析师对2026年光模块出货量预期较高，行业可能出现供不应求的局面。 此外，通信ETF成分股年报业绩表现亮眼。截至1月29日，通信ETF 50只成分股中已有17只披露业绩预 告，利润同比增速中位数达50%，在各板块中位居前列。扎实的基本面也为其在 ...

Core Insights - Domestic GPU companies are seizing the industry window period with intensive initiatives, exemplified by TianShu ZhiXin's release of its fourth-generation architecture roadmap, aiming to surpass NVIDIA's Rubin architecture by 2027 [1][2] Group 1: Product Development and Architecture - TianShu ZhiXin has introduced a roadmap for its four-generation GPU architecture, with specific timelines: "TianShu TianShu" in 2025 to surpass NVIDIA's Hopper architecture, "TianShu TianXuan" in 2026 to match Blackwell, and "TianShu TianQuan" in 2027 to exceed Rubin [3] - The company emphasizes energy efficiency and improved parallel computing resource utilization in its architecture design, achieving over 90% effective utilization in AI-related calculations [3][4] - The efficiency of the "TianShu TianShu" architecture is reported to be 60% higher than the industry average, with a 20% performance increase over NVIDIA's Hopper architecture in specific scenarios [4] Group 2: Product Launches and Market Positioning - TianShu ZhiXin has launched the "TongYang" series of products aimed at edge computing, which includes four models catering to various computational needs [5][6] - The "TongYang" series has demonstrated superior performance compared to NVIDIA's AGX Orin in multiple real-world scenarios, with the goal of becoming the leading domestic solution for edge computing [6][8] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - As of now, TianShu ZhiXin's products have served over 300 clients and completed more than 1,000 deployments across various sectors, indicating a growing commercial application [8] - The domestic GPU market is witnessing increased activity, with several companies like MoEr Thread, MuXi Co., and BiRan Technology completing IPOs, reflecting the ongoing interest in hard technology [8][9] - Despite the enthusiasm in the capital market, domestic GPU companies still hold a small market share compared to NVIDIA, which commands a significant global market presence [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that TianShu ZhiXin has released a roadmap for its fourth-generation architecture, aiming to surpass NVIDIA's related products [2][3] - The roadmap includes the TianShu TianShu architecture expected to surpass Hopper by 2025, TianShu TianXuan architecture targeting Blackwell in 2026, TianShu TianJi architecture also surpassing Blackwell in 2026, and TianShu TianQuan architecture expected to surpass Rubin by 2027 [3] - The company plans to launch multiple products over the next three years based on this roadmap, continuously enhancing computing performance [3] Group 2 - Key details of the architectures include: TianShu TianShu architecture achieving over 90% effective utilization efficiency in AI calculations, TianShu TianXuan architecture introducing ixFP4 precision support, TianShu TianJi architecture covering all scenarios of AI and accelerated computing, and TianShu TianQuan architecture incorporating more precision support and innovative designs [3] - The company has reportedly achieved approximately 20% higher performance than the Hopper architecture in the DeepSeek V3 scenario due to core technology innovations [3] - TianShu ZhiXin was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on January 8, 2026, and its stock price closed at 188.2 HKD per share on January 26, 2026, reflecting a decline of 7.65%, with a market capitalization of 47.8 billion HKD [4]

【导读】天数智芯发布四代架构路线图 中国基金报记者 卢鸰 在港股上市不久的国产GPU公司天数智芯，发布了一份标注日期的、超越英伟达相关产品的 路线图。 2026年，天数天璇架构对标Blackwell； 2026年，天数天玑架构超越Blackwell； 2027年，天数天权架构超越Rubin； 2027年之后，将转向突破性计算芯片架构设计。 未来3年，天数智芯将基于此次发布的四代架构，陆续发布多款产品，持续提升计算性能。 在1月26日召开的天数智芯"智启芯程"合作伙伴大会上，天数智芯AI与加速计算技术负责人单 天逸公布了超越英伟达相关产品的四代架构路线图： 2025年，天数天枢架构超越Hopper； 天数智芯董事会主席盖鲁江同时兼任公司CEO，其于2020年7月加入公司，并于2025年5月 调任执行董事，主要负责公司的日常管理及整体策略规划。在此之前，盖鲁江拥有约17年财 务及投资经验。 2026年1月8日，天数智芯在港股上市。1月26日，天数智芯股价以188.2港元/股收盘，大跌 7.65%，最新市值为478亿港元。 编辑：江右 校对：王玥 制作： 鹿米 审核：陈墨 注：本文封面图由AI生成 单天逸还介绍了公 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly falling below 4100 points, while the ChiNext Index rebounded in the afternoon [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.91 trillion, a decrease of 1.04 trillion compared to the previous trading day [1] - Over 3100 stocks in the market declined, indicating a chaotic market sentiment [1] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector strengthened in the afternoon, with stocks like Silan Microelectronics hitting the daily limit and reaching historical highs [2] - The CPO concept also saw gains, with companies like Huanxu Electronics hitting the daily limit [2] - The tourism and hotel sector was active, with stocks such as Shaanxi Tourism and Zhongxin Tourism hitting the daily limit [3] - The non-ferrous metals sector rose, with stocks like Sichuan Gold and Luoping Zinc hitting the daily limit [1] Individual Stock Movements - A significant number of stocks experienced short-term losses, with over a hundred stocks hitting the daily limit or declining more than 10% [5] - The commercial aerospace sector continued to adjust, with all stocks in the sector declining, including companies like China Satellite and Shanghai Hanxun [5] - The AI application sector also weakened, with stocks like Tianlong Group and Zhidema hitting the daily limit [5] Key Developments - TSMC announced plans for higher capital expenditures over the next three years, expecting to spend between $52 billion and $56 billion by 2026 [2] - The release of NVIDIA's Rubin architecture at CES 2026 is expected to significantly enhance AI performance and efficiency [2][3] - The People's Bank of China indicated that there is still room for rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions this year [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index dipping below 4100 points at one point, while the ChiNext Index rebounded in the afternoon. Overall, over 3100 stocks declined, indicating a lack of clear market direction [1]. Market Performance - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.91 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.04 trillion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.41%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.56% [1]. Sector Analysis - The semiconductor sector saw a strong performance in the afternoon, with stocks like Silan Microelectronics hitting the daily limit and reaching a historical high. Other notable gainers included Tongcheng New Materials and Kangqiang Electronics [1][2]. - The CPO concept also experienced a surge, with companies like Huanyu Electronics reaching the daily limit. The CES 2026 event highlighted Nvidia's new Rubin architecture, which aims to significantly enhance AI performance [2]. - The tourism and hotel sector was active, with stocks such as Shaanxi Tourism and Zhongxin Tourism hitting the daily limit. This activity was partly driven by news of an investigation into Ctrip for alleged monopolistic behavior [3]. Individual Stock Movements - A significant number of stocks experienced sharp declines, with over a hundred stocks hitting the daily limit or dropping more than 10%. The commercial aerospace sector continued to adjust, with all stocks in the sector declining [5]. - The AI application sector also weakened, with stocks like Tianlong Group and Zhidema hitting the daily limit. However, some stocks like Huasheng Tiancai and Vision China showed resilience [5]. Future Market Outlook - The market exhibited a mixed trend, with the three major indices maintaining above their 10-day moving averages, indicating potential support. The trading volume decreased significantly, which may favor market continuation [7]. - The recent adjustments in the commercial aerospace and AI application sectors could lead to a capital return, with a focus on the semiconductor and computing hardware sectors as potential leaders in future market movements [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the critical role of high-end electronic fabric in the AI computing power revolution, highlighting the dominance of Japanese companies in this sector and the emerging competition from Chinese firms [5][21]. Group 1: Japanese Dominance in High-End Electronic Fabric - Japanese companies like Nitto Denko, Asahi Kasei, and AGC dominate nearly 70% of the global high-end electronic fabric market, creating a near monopoly [7][12]. - These companies do not manufacture AI chips but control a crucial component that supports AI computing power [8]. - The unique chemical formulations of NE-glass and T-glass developed by Japanese firms provide superior dielectric properties, making them difficult to compete against [12][16]. Group 2: Challenges and Innovations from Chinese Companies - Chinese companies have been primarily active in the mid to low-end electronic fabric market, but recent innovations are challenging the Japanese monopoly [10][21]. - Companies like Honghe Technology and Linzhou Guangyuan have made significant breakthroughs in producing ultra-thin and low-dielectric electronic fabrics, breaking the long-standing foreign dominance [27][31]. - The successful production of 9-micron ultra-thin electronic fabric by Honghe in 2021 marked a significant milestone in the industry [27]. Group 3: The Material Revolution - The article discusses the importance of material science in technological advancements, asserting that breakthroughs in materials are essential for the progress of industries like AI and aerospace [39][41]. - The development of M9-level quartz fabric by companies like Feilihua represents a new frontier in high-end electronic materials, providing alternatives to Japanese products [35][36]. - The ongoing material revolution is seen as a critical step for China to achieve self-sufficiency and reduce reliance on foreign technology [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "volatile", and for treasury bond futures is "relatively strong" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market had a volatile performance on January 15, 2026, with the overall market surging and then falling back, and the three major indexes showing mixed results. The trading volume of the whole market was close to 4 trillion, hitting a new high. The index increase at the beginning of 2026 was mainly driven by global technological development, and geopolitical tensions also made rare metals popular. The stock index is expected to be volatile, and investors should be cautious about chasing high prices and mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach [1] - Treasury bond futures showed mixed results. The short - term reasonable and sufficient liquidity is the biggest support for the bond market, but factors such as economic stability, rising inflation, and cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts restrict the bond market. The bond market is expected to remain in a range - bound pattern in the short term [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Viewpoints Stock Index Futures - The market had a volatile performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.31%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.56%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.82%. The rise was driven by technological development and geopolitical factors. The short - term trend is volatile, and investors are advised to be cautious [1] Treasury Bond Futures - The 30 - year main contract was down 0.04%, the 10 - year main contract was up 0.08%, the 5 - year main contract was up 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract was flat. The central bank carried out 240.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase, with a net injection of 212.2 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to be range - bound in the short term [1][2] 3.2 Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - IH decreased by 0.75% from 3,137.6 to 3,114.0; IF decreased by 0.39% from 4,758.6 to 4,740.0; IC increased by 0.82% from 8,131.2 to 8,197.8; IM decreased by 0.05% from 8,160.4 to 8,156.0 [3] - The Shanghai 50 Index decreased by 0.67% from 3,132.9 to 3,112.1; the CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.40% from 4,761.0 to 4,741.9; the CSI 500 Index increased by 1.04% from 8,143.3 to 8,227.7; the CSI 1000 Index increased by 0.66% from 8,203.1 to 8,257.2 [3] Treasury Bond Futures - TS remained flat at 102.33; TF increased by 0.03% from 105.63 to 105.66; T increased by 0.07% from 107.85 to 107.93; TL decreased by 0.07% from 111.35 to 111.27 [3] 3.3 Market News - The Ministry of Science and Technology will strengthen financial services for major national scientific and technological tasks and technology - based small and medium - sized enterprises in 2026, and play a role in the science - finance coordination mechanism [4] 3.4 Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report presents the trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts [5][6][7][8][9][10] Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][21] Exchange Rates - The report displays the trends of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, the euro against the Chinese yuan, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rates [22][23][24][25][27][29]