公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 在这些追赶者中，英特尔的转型动作最为激进，也最具系统性。作为曾经的半导体霸主，英特尔在制 程技术上的落后一度让外界质疑其代工业务的前景。但从2024年底到2025年，英特尔展现出的战略 调整清晰而坚决：不是放弃先进制程竞争，而是通过技术突破、客户争取和生态整合，试图在特定领 域重新建立竞争力。 先进制程：14A与High-NA EUV的技术豪赌 英特尔晶圆代工的核心筹码是其14A制程节点。这一节点被定位为对外部客户极具竞争力的选择，预 计在功耗效率和芯片密度方面实现显著提升。更关键的是，14A将成为全球首个在关键层采用高数值 孔径（High-NA）EUV光刻技术的制造节点。 英 特 尔 已 安 装 ASML 的 Twinscan EXE:5200B ， 这 是 业 界 首 款 采 用 0.55 数 值 孔 径 投 影 光 学 系 统 的 High-NA光刻设备。该设备能够以8nm的分辨率打印芯片，在50 mJ/cm²的剂量下每小时可处理175 片晶圆，并实现0.7纳米的套刻精度。相比之下，台积电和三星虽然也在测试High-NA设备的研发版 本，但尚未将其用于商业 ...

Core Insights - TSMC's advanced packaging capacity is fully booked, with NVIDIA accounting for over half of the orders, indicating strong demand for semiconductor manufacturing [1] - NVIDIA has reserved 800,000 to 850,000 wafers for 2026, significantly outpacing competitors like Broadcom and AMD [1][3] Group 1: NVIDIA's Capacity Reservation - NVIDIA's large-scale capacity reservation is primarily to meet the growing production demands for the Blackwell Ultra chip and to prepare for the next-generation Rubin architecture [3] - Current orders do not include potential demand from the Chinese market for the H200 AI chip, suggesting that NVIDIA's capacity needs may increase further [3] Group 2: TSMC's Response to Demand - TSMC is actively expanding its advanced packaging facilities, planning to build eight wafer fabs at the AP7 plant and introducing two new packaging factories in Arizona, expected to start mass production in 2028 [3] - Due to limited capacity, TSMC has decided to outsource some processes of its CoWoS advanced packaging to companies like ASE and SPIL in Taiwan [3] Group 3: Industry Alternatives and Technology - The outsourcing decision has prompted some companies to consider alternative solutions, with Intel's EMIB technology gaining attention as a viable option [3] - EMIB offers advantages in area and cost, allowing for highly customized packaging layouts, but for GPU suppliers like NVIDIA and AMD, TSMC's CoWoS remains the preferred solution due to its bandwidth, transmission speed, and low latency requirements [3]

Core Insights - The global wafer foundry industry is expected to grow by 22.1% year-on-year in 2025, driven by AI and electric vehicles, with shipment growth rates projected at 24% and 14% respectively [1] - The semiconductor supply chain anxiety is easing, leading to healthier customer inventory strategies, which will boost the wafer foundry market performance in the second half of 2025 [1] - The demand for AI high-performance computing (HPC) is creating a surge in demand for advanced packaging, while challenges such as capacity shortages and high costs are pushing some cloud service providers to adopt Intel's EMIB technology [1] Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is anticipated to experience a comprehensive recovery in 2025, with an accelerated clearing of the competitive landscape and a potential restoration of profit cycles for related companies [1] - Although the growth rates for AI servers and electric vehicles are slowing, the increasing complexity of chip structures is expected to drive continued wafer consumption [1] Investment Tools - The semiconductor equipment ETF (159516) tracks the semiconductor materials and equipment index (931743), focusing on the upstream materials and equipment sectors of the semiconductor industry [1] - This specialized index, characterized by high technical barriers and growth potential, provides investors with an effective tool to track developments in the upstream semiconductor industry [1]

Group 1 - The global wafer foundry industry is expected to see a revenue growth of 22.1% year-on-year by 2025, driven by AI and electric vehicles, with shipment growth rates projected at 24% and 14% respectively for 2026 [1] - As semiconductor supply chain anxieties ease, customer inventory strategies are shifting towards healthier levels, with urgent orders expected to drive better-than-expected performance in the wafer foundry market in the second half of 2025 [1] - The demand for AI high-performance computing (HPC) is promoting the development of advanced packaging technologies, although CoWoS faces challenges such as capacity shortages, photomask size limitations, and high costs, leading some cloud service providers to shift towards Intel's EMIB technology [1] Group 2 - The electronic semiconductor industry may experience a comprehensive recovery in 2025, with an accelerated clearing and repair of the competitive landscape, leading to a sustained recovery in profit cycles and related company profits [1] - The Guotai Science and Technology Chip ETF (589100) tracks the Science and Technology Chip Index (000685), which has a daily fluctuation of 20%, focusing on semiconductor companies across the entire industry chain, including materials, equipment, design, manufacturing, and packaging testing [1]

Core Viewpoint - The chip ETF (512760) has risen over 1.3%, with institutions indicating that the demand for wafer foundry services may experience structural improvement in the near future [1] Industry Summary - The global wafer foundry industry is expected to see a revenue growth of 22.1% year-on-year by 2025, driven by AI and electric vehicles, which are projected to have shipment growth rates of 24% and 14% respectively in 2026 [1] - As concerns over U.S. tariffs on the semiconductor supply chain diminish, customer inventory strategies are shifting towards healthier levels, with urgent orders anticipated to boost the wafer foundry market performance in the second half of 2025 [1] - The demand for advanced packaging in AI high-performance computing (HPC) is strong, although the CoWoS solution faces capacity shortages and photomask size limitations, leading some cloud service providers to shift towards Intel's EMIB technology [1] - The electronic semiconductor industry may witness a comprehensive recovery in 2025, with an accelerated clearing and repair of the competitive landscape, resulting in a sustained recovery of profit cycles and related company profits [1] Company Summary - The chip ETF (512760) tracks the China Semiconductor Index (990001), which focuses on core enterprises in the semiconductor industry within the Chinese A-share market, covering sectors such as semiconductor equipment, chip design, and integrated circuit manufacturing [1] - This index aims to reflect the progress of domestic semiconductor industry development and technological advancements, characterized by high industry concentration and growth potential [1]

Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is increasingly seeking alternative solutions due to the ongoing tight capacity for advanced packaging at TSMC, with Marvell and MediaTek evaluating the integration of Intel's EMIB technology into their ASIC chip designs [2][4]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - TSMC faces dual challenges: the inability to rapidly expand its advanced packaging capacity in the short term and the demand from U.S. clients for localizing the entire supply chain, which TSMC's U.S. backend capacity is not yet fully equipped to meet [4]. Group 2: Technological Developments - Intel's EMIB technology, which utilizes a 2.5D packaging architecture, is gaining attention for its unique advantages in heterogeneous chip integration [4]. - Recent job postings from leading companies like Apple, Qualcomm, and Broadcom explicitly mention EMIB-related positions, indicating a proactive approach to talent acquisition in the advanced packaging sector [4]. - Intel's newly launched 3.5D packaging technology achieves higher chip interconnect density through more precise silicon vias, further enhancing its competitive edge [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The embedded bridge solution used in EMIB offers advantages in cost control and yield improvement compared to traditional intermediary layer designs, making it a key focus as advanced process evolution slows down [4]. - The shift of multiple companies towards the EMIB solution not only reflects current supply chain adaptation strategies but may also reshape the competitive landscape of the semiconductor packaging industry [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Intel's future prospects, particularly focusing on its wafer foundry business and the recent mass production of the 18A process node, which marks the completion of Intel's "Four Nodes in Five Years" strategy aimed at regaining process technology leadership and revitalizing its foundry business [2]. Group 1: Intel's 18A Process Node - The mass production of the 18A process node signifies a critical milestone for Intel, enabling the production of both client and edge computing products, as well as data center processors [2]. - The transition from TSMC manufacturing to in-house production of CPU and GPU chips is expected to enhance Intel's scale, reduce costs, and improve profit margins while delivering competitive products [2]. Group 2: Advanced Packaging Technologies - Chiplet technology is gaining traction in the semiconductor industry, with Intel leveraging its advanced packaging techniques, such as Foveros and EMIB, to enhance chip design and performance [3]. - Foveros technology allows for flexible chip configurations based on application needs, while EMIB technology interconnects multiple 18A chips in the new Clearwater Forest processors [3]. Group 3: Ecosystem Impact - The introduction of 18A chips and products like Panther Lake is anticipated to benefit the entire ecosystem by providing competitive products that enhance battery life and performance while lowering costs for OEM manufacturers [4]. - A healthy and competitive PC chip ecosystem is expected to deliver higher quality products at more competitive prices to consumers [5]. Group 4: Opportunities in Mobile Industry - Intel's foundry success could extend to the smartphone industry, presenting opportunities for cost reduction and supply chain diversification, despite the current dominance of TSMC in this market [5]. - Major smartphone manufacturers, including Apple, rely heavily on TSMC, which produces approximately 90% of global smartphone SoC chips [5]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - Intel's foundry services could provide a competitive alternative to TSMC, especially with the anticipated introduction of the 14A process node, potentially curbing TSMC's price increases [6]. - TSMC has raised prices significantly over the past five years, and Intel's competitive offerings could alleviate cost pressures on chip suppliers and OEMs [6]. Group 6: Future Prospects for Intel's Foundry - Intel's foundry is actively seeking new clients to utilize its advanced capabilities, with the success of Panther Lake and Clearwater Forest products likely to attract more companies [7]. - The demand for cheaper, low-power chips and the desire for geopolitical supply chain diversification are expected to drive more business towards Intel's foundry services in the future [7].

Core Viewpoint - Intel's recent decisions to cut promising projects and lay off key personnel, including a significant talent loss to Samsung, indicate a shift in focus towards reducing operational losses and enhancing shareholder value, potentially jeopardizing its long-term technological advancements [2][3]. Group 1: Talent Loss and Company Strategy - Intel has lost a key employee, Dan Gang, who was responsible for glass substrate and EMIB technology, to Samsung, highlighting the company's struggle to retain talent amid aggressive restructuring efforts [2]. - The company has made radical decisions in its organizational structure and vision, aiming to reduce operational losses and improve shareholder value, which has led to the cancellation of promising projects and significant layoffs [2][3]. Group 2: Glass Substrate Technology - Intel initially planned to integrate glass substrate technology into its packaging services by the end of 2025, leveraging its years of development in this area to maintain a competitive edge [3]. - The glass substrate technology is expected to revolutionize semiconductor packaging and support the ongoing progress of Moore's Law, particularly in data centers, artificial intelligence, and high-performance computing [3]. Group 3: Advantages of Glass Substrate - Glass substrates offer significant advantages over traditional organic substrates, including ultra-low flatness, excellent thermal stability, and higher mechanical stability, which are crucial for high-power chip cooling [4]. - The potential for increased interconnect density with glass substrates is notable, with Intel indicating a tenfold increase compared to organic substrates, allowing for more transistors to be packed into a single package [4][5]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Prospects - The introduction of glass substrates faces challenges such as fragility, complex manufacturing processes, and limited layering capabilities, which require innovative engineering solutions [6]. - Despite these challenges, the development and application of glass substrate technology are expected to play an increasingly important role in meeting the semiconductor industry's demand for higher performance and lower power consumption [7].