公司报告 | 半年报点评 舍得酒业（600702） 证券研究报告 普通酒高增贡献增长，静待拐点来临 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。 2025H1 公司营业 收 入/ 归母 净利 润 分别为 27.01/4.43 亿 元（ 同比 -17.41%/-24.98%）。2025Q2 公司营业收入/归母净利润分别为 11.25/0.97 亿 元（同比-3.44%/+139.48%）。 沱牌结构优化成效突出，次高端需求偏弱中高档酒仍承压。25Q2 公司酒 类业务营收 9.76 亿元（同比-4.52%）。 分产品 来看， 中高 档酒/ 普通酒 营收 分别为 7.39/2.37 亿元 （同比 -15.65%/+62.25%），中高档酒下滑预计主要系 Q2"禁酒令"影响之下次高 端价位需求承压明显；普通酒增长突出主要系：①24Q2 低基数；②T68 等 升级单品延续 Q1 以来放量势能。 分渠道看，批发/电商营收分别为 8.45/1.31 亿元（同比-7.80%/+23.83%） ; 分区域看，省内/省外营收分别为 2.89/6.86 亿元（同比-21.20%/+4.84%）。 产品结构下行毛利率阶段略承压，费用率下 ...

Summary of Shede Liquor Industry Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shede Liquor Industry - **Date**: September 23, 2025 Key Points Industry Context - The overall liquor industry is expected to decline by 15%-20% during the Mid-Autumn Festival in 2025 due to industry-wide downturns [2][3] - Shede Liquor is focusing on the mid-to-high-end market to mitigate the impact of the industry decline [2][3] Sales Performance - The main product, "Pinwei Shede," saw a positive sales trend in August, with sales volume doubling for the "Ten-Year" product in the first half of 2025 [2][5] - The company anticipates better performance than the industry average in Q3 2025 due to strategic focus on the mid-to-high-end market and channel clearing efforts [2][3] Pricing and Channel Management - Shede Liquor has implemented measures to stabilize prices, including leveling wholesale prices, providing value-added services instead of physical gifts, and simplifying policies to improve efficiency [6][7] - The company has managed to keep price fluctuations for its products within 10% through inventory clearance and controlled shipments [7] - 70% of frontline sales personnel received bonuses in the first half of 2025, indicating effective incentive structures [6][7] Product Strategy - The strategic positioning of Shede Liquor is focused on mid-to-high-end products and popular light bottle wines [4][11] - The company is targeting stable growth in products priced below 300 yuan, while also promoting new products like "Wisdom Shede" in weaker regions [5][11] Sales Team and Channel Health - The sales team remains stable despite industry pressures, with a focus on retaining and incentivizing mid-to-senior level sales personnel [9] - The company emphasizes that sales volume must exceed invoice numbers to ensure channel health, moving away from a purely invoice-driven approach [8] Revenue Growth and New Initiatives - Online sales have shown significant growth, contributing 340 million yuan in revenue in the first half of 2025, a 31% increase year-on-year [4][13] - The company has developed a dedicated app for customized services and has engaged in partnerships with celebrities for product launches, enhancing market reach [13][15] Market Development - Shede Liquor is focusing on developing key base markets such as Shandong, Hebei, and Sichuan, with plans to grow these markets significantly over the next 3-5 years [14] - The company is also exploring new growth points through innovative channel models and internal growth strategies, moving beyond traditional inventory management [15] Conclusion - Shede Liquor is strategically navigating a challenging industry landscape by focusing on mid-to-high-end products, stabilizing pricing, and enhancing sales team effectiveness while exploring new growth avenues through technology and market development initiatives [2][4][11][15]

Core Viewpoint - Shede Spirits achieved a net profit of 0.97 billion yuan in Q2, representing a year-on-year increase of 139.48%, while the net profit for H1 2025 was 4.43 billion yuan, down 24.98% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 7.39 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.65%, while the revenue from ordinary liquor was 2.37 billion yuan, an increase of 62.25% [1] - The demand for the sub-high-end price segment is still recovering, with T68 showing a high year-on-year growth rate [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on an old liquor strategy as a cornerstone, while simultaneously promoting a multi-brand strategy, youth-oriented strategy, and internationalization strategy [1] - Early inventory destocking and expense control have helped stabilize the company's fundamentals, with expectations for gradual recovery in net profit due to expense management and product structure adjustments [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Due to pressure on government and business consumption scenarios, the revenue growth forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised down to -9%, 5%, and 10% respectively [1] - The forecast for net profit growth has also been adjusted to 100%, 11%, and 23% for the same period [1] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 30 times for 2026, and the company maintains a "buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shede Liquor achieved impressive financial results in the first half of 2025, with revenue of 2.7 billion and a net profit of 443 million, despite the traditionally weak second quarter for the liquor industry [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.7 billion and a net profit of 443 million [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 427.77% year-on-year, indicating strong financial health [1] - In Q2 2025, the company generated revenue of 1.125 billion and a net profit of 97.17 million, showcasing resilience in a challenging market [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company focused on channel development, emphasizing e-commerce, group purchases, and collaboration with both new and existing merchants to build a more resilient distribution network [2] - Shede Liquor is actively expanding into group direct sales and overseas markets, promoting Chinese liquor culture globally [2] - The product strategy includes a dual focus on high-end and mass-market products, with significant advancements in both segments [2] Group 3: Product Innovation - The company plans to launch its first low-alcohol drink, "Shede Zizai," on August 30, 2025, to cater to changing consumer preferences [2] - The introduction of "Shede Zizai" aims to capture new market segments, particularly among younger consumers who prefer low-alcohol options for social gatherings [2] - The overall strategy combines classic products to maintain the core market while innovating to explore new opportunities [2]

证 券 研 究 报 告 舍得酒业（600702）2025 年中报点评 推荐（维持） 渠道筑底，盈利改善 目标价：78 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2025 年半年报，上半年实现营收 27.0 亿元，同降 17.4%；归母净利 润 4.4 亿元，同降 25.0%；其中单 Q2 实现营收 11.3 亿元，同降 3.4%，归母净 利 1.0 亿元，同增 139.5%。单 Q2 销售回款 11.5 亿元，同降 24.2%，经营活动 现金流净额-1.6 亿元，去年同期为-1.3 亿元，Q2 末合同负债 1.6 亿元，环比 Q1 末减少 0.5 亿元。 公司研究 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 5,357 | 4,690 | 4,914 | 5,580 | | 同比增速(%) | -24.3% | -12.4% | 4.8% | 13.6% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 345 | 711 | 789 | 954 | | 同 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is in a phase of bottoming out and stabilizing, with profit recovery expected [1] - The report highlights that the industry demand is at a bottoming stage, and the recovery of mid-to-high-end demand still faces significant challenges [8] - The company is leveraging its operational advantages and adopting a more proactive approach to explore sales growth through innovation [8] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, total revenue is projected at 7,087 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.04% - In 2024, total revenue is expected to decline to 5,357 million yuan, a decrease of 24.41% - The forecast for 2025 estimates total revenue at 4,784 million yuan, down 10.70% year-on-year, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,769.39 million yuan in 2023, with a significant drop to 345.77 million yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 637.37 million yuan in 2025 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 5.31 yuan in 2023, dropping to 1.04 yuan in 2024, and recovering to 1.91 yuan in 2025 [1] Revenue and Profit Breakdown - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 17.4%, with a net profit of 440 million yuan, down 25.0% [8] - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 1.13 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.4% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 139.5% to 100 million yuan [8] - The report indicates that the revenue decline has significantly narrowed, with product structure stabilizing [8] Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on long-term product layout and channel innovation to drive growth [8] - It is actively promoting high-end products and exploring new sales channels, including e-commerce and group purchases [8] - The company has introduced new products and is planning innovative channel strategies to enhance market penetration [8]

Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 440 million yuan, down 25.0% [1] - In Q2 2025, revenue reached 1.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 100 million yuan, an increase of 139.5%, indicating a better-than-expected profit recovery [1] Operational Analysis - Revenue breakdown by product in H1 2025: high-end liquor, ordinary liquor, and non-liquor businesses generated 1.97 billion, 440 million, and 280 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -24.1%, +15.9%, and -0.7% respectively; in Q2 2025, the figures were 740 million, 240 million, and 150 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -15.6%, +62.3%, and +4.3% [2] - Revenue by region in H1 2025: domestic and external sales were 780 million and 1.64 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -13.9% and -21.2%; in Q2 2025, the figures were 290 million and 690 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -21.2% and +4.8% [2] - Revenue by channel in H1 2025: e-commerce and wholesale generated 340 million and 2.08 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of +31.4% and -23.7%; in Q2 2025, the figures were 130 million and 840 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of +23.8% and -7.8% [2] - The company added 253 new distributors and exited 331, resulting in a net decrease of 78 distributors, with a total of 2,582 remaining at the end of H1 2025, focusing on stabilizing existing distributors while nurturing small and micro clients [2] Financial Structure Analysis - In Q2 2025, the net profit margin increased by 5.2 percentage points to 8.6%, with a gross margin decrease of 0.3 percentage points to 60.6%; the sales expense ratio decreased by 3.3 percentage points, and the management expense ratio decreased by 1.2 percentage points, indicating a recovery in profit margins [3] - The balance of contract liabilities at the end of H1 2025 was 160 million yuan, a decrease of 50 million yuan quarter-on-quarter; considering the variable of contract liabilities, Q2 2025 revenue decreased by 1% year-on-year [3] Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are -4.9%, +8.9%, and +14.5%; net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 121.2%, 20.8%, and 28.1%, reaching 765 million, 924 million, and 1.183 billion yuan respectively; EPS is projected to be 2.30, 2.77, and 3.55 yuan [4] - The current stock price corresponds to PE valuations of 26.5, 22.0, and 17.1 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [4]

2）酒类分区域拆分，25H1 省内/省外分别实现营收 7.8/16.4 亿元， 同比-13.9%/-21.2%；单 Q2 分别实现营收 2.9/6.9 亿元，同比 -21.2%/+4.8%。3）酒类分渠道拆分，电商/批发分别实现营收 3.4/20.8 亿元，同比+31.4%/-23.7%；单 Q2 实现营收 1.3/8.4 亿 元，同比+23.8%/-7.8%。公司高度重视电商渠道发展，通过产品 创新方式做增量。4）25H1 经销商新增 253 家，退出 331 家，净减 少 78 家，25H1 末留存 2582 家，公司稳定老商的同时加强小微客 户培育。 报表结构拆分：1）25Q2 归母净利率同比+5.2pct 至 8.6%，其中毛 利率同比-0.3pct 至 60.6%、销售费用率-3.3pct、管理费用率 -1.2pct，表观利润率压力至深时刻已过，利润率已至修复通道， 税负节奏变动期内所得税负降低也利于利润弹性提升；公司内部 持续推进降本增效+费用精细化落地，预计 25H2 费用率会加速优 化。2）25H1 末合同负债余额 1.6 亿元，环比-0.5 亿元，考虑合 同负债环比变量后 25Q2 营收同比 ...

Summary of Shede Liquor Industry Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shede Liquor Industry - **Date**: Q2 2025 Key Points Industry Impact and Sales Performance - The macro environment and the 518 alcohol ban have reduced consumption scenarios, impacting government and enterprise-related projects, but sales of main products remained stable during the Dragon Boat Festival [2][3] - The T68 banquet product was not affected, and the market for townships, counties, mass consumption, self-drinking, and banquet markets maintained double-digit growth [2][3] - After the 618 period, the number of opened bottles gradually recovered, indicating a loosening of demand [2][4] Inventory and Distribution - 70% of Shede's distributors are large businesses with over 5 million in sales, maintaining a healthy inventory level of two to three months [2][4] - The company has actively reduced inventory since last year, with a slight increase in inventory levels by the end of Q2 2025, but overall inventory management remains good [2][6] Pricing Strategy - Mainstream wholesale prices remained firm in Q2 2025, with the Taste series priced around 330 yuan, and the Water of the Way series priced between 190-200 yuan and 150 yuan for the Tiandao series [2][6] Market Segmentation and Product Strategy - The banquet market is a focus, but the opening rate in cities above the prefecture level is low due to unfamiliarity among participants, while products in township markets perform better [2][7] - The company is developing a 29-degree liquor product that incorporates decades-old liquor, showcasing its old liquor strategy [3][23] - Online sales channels account for about 10%-15% of total sales, primarily driven by cultural customization and youth-oriented products [2][5] Marketing and Advertising - Shede is focusing on precise advertising investments, including main products and brand building through platforms like CCTV, and targeting mass banquet consumption [3][11] - The company is innovating in youth marketing by integrating emotional value and thematic elements into online cultural products and live streaming platforms [3][24] Future Outlook and Strategic Adjustments - The company plans to strengthen its base market strategy, covering all regions and channels, and will focus on new channels and products for young consumers [3][21] - Shede is optimistic about market demand for Q3 and the upcoming festivals, with plans to enhance resource allocation and incentivize sales personnel [3][20] - The company aims to launch new cultural products for the upcoming year and upgrade its main products to ensure the best quality at competitive prices [3][22] Financial Performance - Overall profit and gross margin are expected to recover in 2025, driven by cost control and refined management practices [3][17][18] Channel Management - The company is managing channels by controlling distributor inventory and protecting product prices to create a positive sales cycle [3][19] Conclusion - Shede Liquor Industry is navigating a challenging macro environment while focusing on strategic growth areas, product innovation, and effective marketing to engage younger consumers and maintain sales momentum.

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the market and operational adjustments needed to improve performance [1][2]. Revenue Analysis - The company achieved revenue of 1.58 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 25.1% [1]. - Revenue breakdown by product shows mid-to-high-end and regular liquor generating 1.23 billion and 0.21 billion yuan respectively, with declines of 28.5% and 12.6% year-on-year [2]. - Regional revenue analysis indicates that domestic, external, and e-commerce channels generated 0.49 billion, 0.95 billion, and 0.20 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -9.0%, -33.2%, and +36.7% [2]. - E-commerce now accounts for approximately 14% of total revenue, reflecting a breakthrough in this channel [2]. Profitability Metrics - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.35 billion yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin decreased by 4.8 percentage points to 69.4%, while the net profit margin fell by 4.2 percentage points to 22.0% [2]. - Sales expenses increased by 3.0 percentage points, and the balance of contract liabilities rose to 0.21 billion yuan, indicating a need for careful cash flow management [2]. Future Outlook - The company has set ambitious targets for 2025, aiming for revenue growth of no less than 20% or net profit growth of at least 164% [3]. - The company is focusing on core brands and implementing a flatter organizational structure to enhance operational efficiency [3]. - Profitability is expected to gradually recover, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 showing significant growth of 164%, 25.5%, and 23.8% respectively [4]. Valuation and Investment Rating - The company’s estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 2.74, 3.44, and 4.26 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 20.8, 16.6, and 13.4 times [4]. - The investment rating is maintained at "Buy" based on the anticipated recovery in profitability and revenue growth [4].