Joining us now is Kathy Jones, chief fair fix income strategist at Schwab Center for Financial Research. Thanks so much for joining us for this Monday, Kathy. Um, so obviously we're tracking these developments around the potential for this end to the government shutdown.Now, what are you seeing as far as the reaction in fixed income today. >> Well, we're starting to see yields move up a little bit because, you know, ending the shutdown means you pick up in economic activity. Some of the some of the things t ...

TIPS perform best if you get in when inflation is low, research finds. ...

Advisors sometimes envy clients with a US government pension. They are protected from inflation, which is a major concern. It’s not that anyone can tell what future inflation will be, but high inflation over the next decade (or three) could compound and make any non-inflation-adjusted annuity virtually worthless. But, there are ways to build something similar to a pension. (Full disclosure: I’m doing the first two for my own portfolio, and the third solution is brand new.) Almost all clients will have So ...

押注美联储下月降息的债券投资者正面临一个潜在障碍：通胀。 周二将发布的7月消费者价格指数（CPI）将为交易员提供线索，揭示特朗普的关税政策如何影响成 本。彭博社调查的经济学家预计，核心通胀年率将升至3%，为2月以来最高水平。 "市场正寻求进一步确认：贸易政策调整是否已传导至商品通胀上升，"道明证券（TD Securities）美国 利率策略主管根纳季·戈德堡（Gennadiy Goldberg）表示，"其他条件不变的情况下，更高的通胀数据可 能会让美联储希望在降息前看到更多数据。" 降息压力渐增 上月美联储维持利率不变后，鲍威尔重申，官员们需要更多时间评估关税影响后再降息，这表明在特朗 普持续施压要求降息的背景下，他仍保持耐心。 摩根大通策略师周一表示，若CPI数据符合市场预期，9月美国通胀保值国债（TIPS）多头头寸的"票息 收益（carry）"可能转为负值，并补充称在数据公布前，他们对盈亏平衡通胀率持中性态度。 然而，物价快速上涨的风险是美联储主席鲍威尔以及华尔街部分人士的心头大患。美国银行、阿波罗全 球管理公司和纽约梅隆银行近期报告均将滞胀列为重大担忧。 高通胀与经济增长疲软并存，也对美元构成风险——美 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley emphasizes the importance of CPI data integrity for the $2.1 trillion TIPS market, expecting July inflation rates to remain above the Federal Reserve's target despite political pressures [1] - The Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities Index has risen by 5.7% this year, indicating increased demand for inflation-protected assets [1] - The U.S. Treasury plans to increase TIPS issuance to meet debt financing needs [1] Group 2 - Mitsubishi UFJ analysts note that ASEAN and India will face significant U.S. tariff increases starting in early August, potentially altering the current economic landscape [1] - The Indian rupee remains stable, while the Indian stock market has declined by 0.2%, with expectations of more accommodative monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of India in response to U.S. tariff impacts [1] Group 3 - Bloomberg Economic Research indicates that the Eurozone economy is performing well, leading the European Central Bank to hold off on easing monetary policy, with no expected rate cut in September [2] - The ECB's next action is anticipated in December, potentially lowering the deposit rate to 1.75% [2] Group 4 - Goldman Sachs reports significant downward revisions to U.S. non-farm payroll data for May and June, indicating a more severe labor market weakness than previously expected, which may prompt adjustments in Federal Reserve monetary policy [2] - The total downward revision for non-farm payrolls for May and June is 258,000, the largest two-month revision since 1968 [2] Group 5 - Nomura Securities suggests that the likelihood of two rate cuts by the end of December has significantly increased following the release of July non-farm data, with rising demand for hedging against potential economic hard landing risks [3] - Danish Bank analysts state that the Swiss franc's performance depends on the outcome of U.S.-Swiss trade negotiations, with potential high tariffs on Swiss exports if no agreement is reached [3]

ab 20 June 2025 Global Research Global Inflation Strategy The Global Inflation Friday Optimistic on oil persistence, pessimistic on the economy There is nothing quite like a round of volatility in oil to shake up inflation linked markets. Trading betas aren't fit for big shocks, but neither are macro relationships. What you think about shock persistence and other feedback relationships matter just as much. And of course positioning may be revealed. What can we say? Interest Rates Global Giles Gale Strategis ...