Core Viewpoint - Macquarie forecasts that Pop Mart (09992) will achieve approximately 33 billion RMB in revenue for the fiscal year 2025, with a non-IFRS net profit margin of 35% [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The target price for Pop Mart has been raised by 11% to 400 HKD, while the target price-to-earnings ratio has been adjusted from 34.5 times to 33 times due to anticipated growth slowdown starting in 2026 [1] - Net profit forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 have been increased by 17% and 16% respectively, reflecting higher expectations for revenue and profit margins [2] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 7% and 8% respectively, driven by better outlooks for product launches and ongoing expansion in overseas markets [2] Group 2: Market Expansion and Strategy - Pop Mart's revenue in the Americas has increased by 1,142% year-on-year, indicating significant growth potential [1] - The company currently derives 59% of its sales from online channels, suggesting ample opportunity for physical store openings [1] - Macquarie believes that Pop Mart's focus on store quality and productivity will maintain discipline, while opening stores in prime locations will enhance brand awareness among celebrities and opinion leaders [1] - Expansion in Europe and other regions is just beginning, with long-term potential for localization [1] Group 3: Product Development - Pop Mart is investing in IPs beyond The Monsters, aiming for a more balanced IP portfolio [1] - The upcoming Mini Labubu series demonstrates the company's ability to monetize through expansion into new scenarios and categories [1]

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie forecasts that Pop Mart (09992) will achieve approximately 33 billion RMB in revenue for the fiscal year 2025, with a non-IFRS net profit margin of 35% [1] - The firm maintains an "outperform" rating but has adjusted the target price upward by 11% to 400 HKD, while lowering the target price-to-earnings ratio from 34.5x to 33x due to anticipated growth slowdown starting in 2026 [1] Group 1 - The company experienced a remarkable 1,142% year-on-year revenue growth in the Americas market, indicating significant upside potential [1] - Currently, 59% of sales are generated online, suggesting ample opportunity for physical store expansion [1] - Macquarie believes that focusing on store quality and productivity will help the company maintain discipline while enhancing brand awareness among celebrities and opinion leaders through strategic store locations [1] Group 2 - Macquarie anticipates that the expansion in Europe and other regions is just beginning, with long-term potential for localization [1] - The company has been investing in IPs beyond The Monsters, aiming for a more balanced IP portfolio [2] - The upcoming Mini Labubu series demonstrates the company's ability to monetize through category expansion and new scenarios [2] Group 3 - The firm has raised its net profit forecasts for Pop Mart for the fiscal years 2025 and 2026 by 17% and 16%, respectively, reflecting higher revenue and profit margin expectations [2] - Revenue forecasts have been increased by 7% and 8%, attributed to better prospects from product launches and ongoing overseas store expansions in the second half of 2025 [2] - Gross profit margin forecasts have been adjusted upward by 0.6 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points for the respective fiscal years [2]

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie's report projects Pop Mart's revenue to reach approximately 33 billion yuan in the fiscal year 2025, with a non-IFRS net profit margin of 35% [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profitability - The company is expected to see a year-on-year revenue growth of 1142% in the Americas market, indicating significant upside potential [1] - Net profit forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 17% and 16% respectively, reflecting a more favorable outlook due to product launches and ongoing expansion in overseas markets [1] - Revenue forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 have been increased by 7% and 8% respectively [1] Group 2: Market Strategy - The current 59% contribution from online sales suggests that the company has ample room to open more physical stores [1] - The focus on store quality and productivity indicates that the company is maintaining discipline in its operations [1] - Opening stores in prime locations is expected to enhance brand awareness among celebrities and opinion leaders, thereby expanding the potential customer base [1] Group 3: Product Development - The company has been investing in IPs beyond The Monsters, aiming for a more balanced IP portfolio [1] - The upcoming Mini Labubu series demonstrates the company's ability to monetize through expansion into new scenarios and categories [1] - Gross profit margin forecasts have been adjusted upwards by 0.6 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 respectively [1] Group 4: Rating and Target Price - Macquarie maintains an "Outperform" rating for Pop Mart, with the target price raised by 11% to 400 HKD [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with a strong growth trajectory driven by high-quality IP and robust domestic and international sales [2][3] - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit, with a projected revenue of 30,480 million RMB in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 133.78% [1][9] - The core IP matrix has shown explosive growth, with five IPs generating over 1 billion RMB in revenue, particularly "The Monsters" which achieved 48.14 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 668% [9][10] Summary by Sections Domestic Performance - In the first half of 2025, domestic revenue reached 82.83 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 135%, with both offline and online channels achieving triple-digit growth [3] - Offline retail store revenue was 44.06 billion RMB, up 120% year-on-year, driven by store optimization and upgrades [3] - Online sales also surged, with revenue from box machines reaching 11.25 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 182% [3] International Expansion - The company has expanded its overseas stores to 128, with a net increase of 28 stores since the beginning of the year, leading to a 440% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue to 55.93 billion RMB [4][10] - The Americas saw particularly strong growth, with revenue of 22.65 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1142% [4] Financial Projections - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, increasing the estimates to 10,688 million RMB for 2025, 15,146 million RMB for 2026, and 18,888 million RMB for 2027 [10][11] - The projected P/E ratios for the upcoming years are approximately 37 for 2025, 26 for 2026, and 21 for 2027 [10][11] Product and IP Development - The plush product category has become the largest revenue contributor, with sales of 61.39 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1276% [9][10] - The company is focusing on expanding its IP portfolio, with new IPs like "Crybaby" and "Star People" gaining significant traction [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Pop Mart with a 12-month price target of HK$260, indicating a downside potential of 7.4% from the current price of HK$280.80 [17][18]. Core Insights - Pop Mart reported a significant year-on-year revenue growth of 204% and a net profit increase of 396% for the first half of 2025, surpassing Goldman Sachs estimates by 1% and 10% respectively [1][4]. - The strong performance was driven by robust sales growth in both domestic (135% YoY) and overseas markets (440% YoY), with the overseas sales mix increasing to 40.3% from 22.7% in the previous year [2][10]. - The company's core operating profit margin (OPM) expanded by 17 percentage points year-on-year to 42%, attributed to a higher gross profit margin (GPM) and strong operational leverage [2][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total sales reached Rmb 13,876 million in 1H25, slightly above Goldman Sachs estimates [4][16]. - Net income attributable to equity holders was Rmb 4,574 million, exceeding estimates by 10% [14][16]. - The gross profit margin was reported at 70.3%, above the expected 69.4% [13][16]. Sales Breakdown - Sales in the PRC increased by 135% YoY to Rmb 8,283 million, while overseas sales surged by 440% YoY to Rmb 5,593 million [10][11]. - Proprietary products sales grew by 214% YoY, with the Monsters IP sales increasing by 668% YoY to Rmb 4.8 billion, representing 35% of total sales [11][12]. Market Expansion - The number of retail stores in the PRC increased to 443, while overseas stores reached 128, with significant growth in the Americas [13][10]. - The company plans to continue expanding its store count, with guidance for over 100 new stores for the full year [3][10]. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of management's guidance update and strategies for IP portfolio expansion during the upcoming earnings meeting [2][3]. - Continued strong growth visibility into the second half of 2025 is expected, supported by the popularity of IPs and customer base expansion [2][3].

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, Pop Mart reported a revenue of 13.88 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 204.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 4.71 billion yuan, up 362.8%, exceeding previous forecasts of 200% revenue growth and 350% net profit growth [1] - The company's gross margin for the first half of the year was 70.3%, an increase of 6.3% compared to the same period last year, while the adjusted net profit margin rose to 33.9%, up 11.6% year-on-year [1] Revenue Breakdown - The Monsters series generated 4.81 billion yuan in revenue, contributing over 30% of total revenue, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 668% [1] - Plush products surpassed figurines for the first time, achieving revenue of 6.14 billion yuan, a remarkable increase of 1276.2% [1] - The Americas region saw significant growth, with revenue of 2.265 billion yuan, up 1142.3%, while Europe and other regions reported revenue of 478 million yuan, a growth of 729.2% [1] IP Performance - Pop Mart's strong IP portfolio remains a competitive advantage, with five major IPs (The Monsters, Molly, Dimoo, Skullpanda, and Crybaby) each generating over 1 billion yuan in revenue during the first half of 2025 [3] - The classic IP Molly continued its stable growth, achieving revenue of 1.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73.5% [3] - New IPs Crybaby and Skullpanda showed strong growth, with revenues of 1.218 billion yuan and 1.22 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting increases of 248.7% and 112.4% year-on-year [3]

Core Insights - Pop Mart's net profit surged nearly 400% in the first half of the year, reaching $636 million, significantly exceeding estimates of a 350% rise for the entire year [1][5] - Revenue increased by 204.4% to approximately $1.93 billion, outperforming the 62% growth from the same period last year [1] - The explosive demand for Labubu dolls, particularly in overseas markets, has driven this growth, with the toys selling for higher prices and generating larger margins in regions like North America [2] Sales and Market Performance - Labubu sales are projected to exceed 10 million units per day by September, with foreign sales expected to surpass domestic sales this year [7] - "The Monsters" intellectual property, which includes Labubu dolls, accounted for 34.7% of Pop Mart's total revenue [8] Product and Marketing Strategy - Labubu dolls are sold in "blind boxes," creating a collectible market where certain rare designs can fetch high prices, with one figurine recently selling for $150,000 at auction [3] - Celebrity endorsements from figures like K-pop singer Lisa, Rihanna, and David Beckham have contributed to the popularity of Labubu dolls [4] Expansion and Retail Presence - Pop Mart operates 571 retail stores and 2,597 robot shops across 18 countries and regions, with plans to open 100 new outlets outside mainland China this year [11] - The company recently opened a megastore in Iconsiam, a large shopping center in Bangkok [10]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais highlights Pop Mart's efforts to create a compatible IP platform showcased at the Beijing Pop Toy Show in August, indicating strong demand for both established and emerging IPs [1] Group 1: Sales Drivers - Key sales drivers for Pop Mart include the strong demand for its iconic IP products such as The Monsters, Skullpanda, and Molly, as well as the monetization of emerging IPs like Twinkle Twinkle and Crybaby [1] - The company is also benefiting from ongoing overseas expansion and category diversification, which is expected to further penetrate customer life cycles [1] Group 2: Financial Forecasts - Credit Lyonnais has raised its sales and adjusted net profit forecasts for Pop Mart for the years 2025 to 2027 by 17% to 22% and 31% to 36%, respectively [1] - The adjusted net profit is projected to reach 10.1 billion yuan in 2025 [1] Group 3: Target Price and Rating - The target price for Pop Mart has been increased from 300 HKD to 318 HKD, based on the company's mid-term potential in building a sustainable IP incubation and monetization platform [1] - The rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China IP Retailers & Toy** industry, highlighting companies such as **Pop Mart**, **Bloks**, and **Miniso** [3][7][5]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **IP Cycle Duration**: - Popular IPs typically have a cycle of **2-3 years**. However, IPs with ongoing serialization or content generation can extend their popularity beyond **5 years** [8][18]. - Examples include **Bandai's Gundam**, which has shown a **14% CAGR** from 2020 to 2025 due to diversified monetization strategies [18][8]. 2. **Sustainability of IP Companies**: - Companies that manage a diverse IP portfolio can stabilize earnings volatility. Key drivers for sustainable growth include content creation, IP portfolio expansion, monetization capabilities, and customer engagement [9][10]. 3. **Total Addressable Market (TAM)**: - Pop Mart's sales in 2024 are projected at **US$1.8 billion**, with potential growth to **US$4.6 billion** in 2025. Comparatively, established brands like **Sanrio** and **Lego** have higher sales figures, indicating significant growth potential for Pop Mart [10][14]. 4. **Share Price Reactions**: - Historical analysis shows that share prices of IP companies react differently based on their growth stages. High-frequency data trends often influence share prices more than earnings revisions during high growth phases [11][13]. 5. **Scenario Analysis for Pop Mart**: - In a blue sky scenario, Pop Mart could achieve a **GMV of Rmb129 billion (US$18 billion)** and reported sales of **Rmb81 billion (US$11 billion)** long-term, significantly higher than current estimates [4][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The rise of short-form video platforms and a weaker content cycle are seen as tailwinds for non-content-based IPs, enhancing their competitiveness [35][36]. - **Consumer Engagement**: Continuous engagement through serialization and diversified product offerings is crucial for extending the lifecycle of IPs [34][32]. - **Celebrity Endorsements**: External factors such as celebrity endorsements and media presence play a significant role in driving IP popularity [32][9]. Conclusion - The **China IP Retailers & Toy** sector presents robust growth opportunities, particularly for companies like Pop Mart, which are positioned to leverage their IP portfolios effectively. The sustainability of growth will depend on their ability to manage cycles, expand their market presence, and engage consumers continuously.

Group 1: Market Overview - The global IP toy market is expected to reach a GMV of 525.1 billion yuan in 2024, with China and Southeast Asia projected to achieve GMVs of 75.6 billion yuan and 18.1 billion yuan respectively, and CAGRs of 17.2% and 20% from 2024 to 2029 [1] Group 2: Upstream IP Development - Pop Mart's original IPs have gained global popularity, expanding from Molly in 2017 to multiple successful IPs by 2022, with projected revenues of 8.08 billion yuan from the top five IPs in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 130.7% [1] - The fastest-growing IPs include The Monsters, Hirono, and Molly, with growth rates of 726.6%, 106.9%, and 105.2% respectively [1] - Alibaba's IP licensing platform, Aliyu, has signed contracts with hundreds of quality IPs since its establishment in 2016, leveraging Alibaba's e-commerce platform to connect brands and consumers [1] Group 3: Midstream Development - KAYOU leads the domestic card game industry with a GMV of 18.7 billion yuan in 2024, capturing a market share of 71.1% [2] - BLUKO has emerged as the top player in the building block toy sector with a GMV of 1.7 billion yuan in 2023, holding a market share of 30.3% [2] - Copper Master, a leading brand in copper cultural and creative products, is projected to exceed 500 million yuan in GMV in 2024, with a market share of 35% [2] - 52TOYS operates with both proprietary and licensed IPs, planning to have 35 proprietary IPs and 80 licensed IPs by the end of 2024, with over 500 new SKUs launched annually [2] Group 4: Downstream Channels - Pop Mart has set a benchmark for direct sales models, increasing its number of stores from 329 to 401 between 2022 and 2024, while TOPTOY's stores grew from 8 to 40 [3] - In 2024, the GMV for Pop Mart and TOPTOY stores in mainland China is expected to be 3.83 billion yuan and 1.15 billion yuan respectively, with single-store revenues of 10.02 million yuan and 5.42 million yuan [3] - The success of Pop Mart is attributed to the strong sales of its proprietary IP products like The Monsters and Molly, resulting in significantly higher store efficiency [3]