麦格理发表研报指，预计泡泡玛特2025财年收入达到约330亿元，非国际财务报告准则净利润率达到 35%。鉴于公司在美洲市场收入按年增长1142%，该行相信泡泡玛特仍有相当大的上行空间，当前59% 的在线销售贡献意味着公司有更多空间开设实体店。 该行将泡泡玛特2025、2026财年净利润预测分别上调17%、16%，收入预测分别上调7%、8%，以反映 2025年下半年通过产品推出及海外市场门店持续扩张的更好展望；毛利润率预测分别上调0.6个百分 点、0.2个百分点。该行维持"跑赢大市"评级，目标价上调11%至400港元。 因公司将重点放在门店质素和生产力上，该行相信泡泡玛特保持自律；又认为在优质地点开店，将通过 扩展潜在客户群，进一步提升名人及意见领袖中的品牌知名度。该行又认为，泡泡玛特一直在投资The Monsters以外的IP，最终将实现更平衡的IP组合。即将推出的迷你Labubu系列，也显示公司通过新场景 (即不同尺寸对应不同用途)和品类扩张实现货币化的能力。 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·家庭电器及用品(HS) 泡泡玛特（09992.HK） 2025 年半年报点评：业绩超预期，继续看好 优质 IP 在全球市场的商业价值潜力 买入（维持） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 6,301 | 13,038 | 30,480 | 42,818 | 52,361 | | 同比（%） | 36.46 | 106.92 | 133.78 | 40.48 | 22.29 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,082 | 3,125 | 10,045 | 14,256 | 17,791 | | 同比（%） | 127.55 | 188.77 | 221.40 | 41.92 | 24.80 | | Non-IFRS 净利润（百万元） | 1,191 | 3,403 | 10,689 | 15,146 | 18,888 | | 同比（%） | 107.57 | 185.86 | 214.0 ...

19 August 2025 | 9:37PM HKT Pop Mart (9992.HK): First Take: 1H bottom line above GSe/profit alert with stronger-than-expected OPM expansion, outlook the key to Pop Mart reported 1H25 revenue/NP to equity holders yoy growth at 204%/396%, 1%/10% above GSe, compared to >200% revenue growth/>350% group profit (excluding the unaccounted fair value changes of financial instruments) growth in profit alert. The higher-than-expected bottom line was attributable to bigger-than-expected OPM expansion, higher non opera ...

Core Insights - Pop Mart's net profit surged nearly 400% in the first half of the year, reaching $636 million, significantly exceeding estimates of a 350% rise for the entire year [1][5] - Revenue increased by 204.4% to approximately $1.93 billion, outperforming the 62% growth from the same period last year [1] - The explosive demand for Labubu dolls, particularly in overseas markets, has driven this growth, with the toys selling for higher prices and generating larger margins in regions like North America [2] Sales and Market Performance - Labubu sales are projected to exceed 10 million units per day by September, with foreign sales expected to surpass domestic sales this year [7] - "The Monsters" intellectual property, which includes Labubu dolls, accounted for 34.7% of Pop Mart's total revenue [8] Product and Marketing Strategy - Labubu dolls are sold in "blind boxes," creating a collectible market where certain rare designs can fetch high prices, with one figurine recently selling for $150,000 at auction [3] - Celebrity endorsements from figures like K-pop singer Lisa, Rihanna, and David Beckham have contributed to the popularity of Labubu dolls [4] Expansion and Retail Presence - Pop Mart operates 571 retail stores and 2,597 robot shops across 18 countries and regions, with plans to open 100 new outlets outside mainland China this year [11] - The company recently opened a megastore in Iconsiam, a large shopping center in Bangkok [10]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China IP Retailers & Toy** industry, highlighting companies such as **Pop Mart**, **Bloks**, and **Miniso** [3][7][5]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **IP Cycle Duration**: - Popular IPs typically have a cycle of **2-3 years**. However, IPs with ongoing serialization or content generation can extend their popularity beyond **5 years** [8][18]. - Examples include **Bandai's Gundam**, which has shown a **14% CAGR** from 2020 to 2025 due to diversified monetization strategies [18][8]. 2. **Sustainability of IP Companies**: - Companies that manage a diverse IP portfolio can stabilize earnings volatility. Key drivers for sustainable growth include content creation, IP portfolio expansion, monetization capabilities, and customer engagement [9][10]. 3. **Total Addressable Market (TAM)**: - Pop Mart's sales in 2024 are projected at **US$1.8 billion**, with potential growth to **US$4.6 billion** in 2025. Comparatively, established brands like **Sanrio** and **Lego** have higher sales figures, indicating significant growth potential for Pop Mart [10][14]. 4. **Share Price Reactions**: - Historical analysis shows that share prices of IP companies react differently based on their growth stages. High-frequency data trends often influence share prices more than earnings revisions during high growth phases [11][13]. 5. **Scenario Analysis for Pop Mart**: - In a blue sky scenario, Pop Mart could achieve a **GMV of Rmb129 billion (US$18 billion)** and reported sales of **Rmb81 billion (US$11 billion)** long-term, significantly higher than current estimates [4][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The rise of short-form video platforms and a weaker content cycle are seen as tailwinds for non-content-based IPs, enhancing their competitiveness [35][36]. - **Consumer Engagement**: Continuous engagement through serialization and diversified product offerings is crucial for extending the lifecycle of IPs [34][32]. - **Celebrity Endorsements**: External factors such as celebrity endorsements and media presence play a significant role in driving IP popularity [32][9]. Conclusion - The **China IP Retailers & Toy** sector presents robust growth opportunities, particularly for companies like Pop Mart, which are positioned to leverage their IP portfolios effectively. The sustainability of growth will depend on their ability to manage cycles, expand their market presence, and engage consumers continuously.

Group 1: Market Overview - The global IP toy market is expected to reach a GMV of 525.1 billion yuan in 2024, with China and Southeast Asia projected to achieve GMVs of 75.6 billion yuan and 18.1 billion yuan respectively, and CAGRs of 17.2% and 20% from 2024 to 2029 [1] Group 2: Upstream IP Development - Pop Mart's original IPs have gained global popularity, expanding from Molly in 2017 to multiple successful IPs by 2022, with projected revenues of 8.08 billion yuan from the top five IPs in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 130.7% [1] - The fastest-growing IPs include The Monsters, Hirono, and Molly, with growth rates of 726.6%, 106.9%, and 105.2% respectively [1] - Alibaba's IP licensing platform, Aliyu, has signed contracts with hundreds of quality IPs since its establishment in 2016, leveraging Alibaba's e-commerce platform to connect brands and consumers [1] Group 3: Midstream Development - KAYOU leads the domestic card game industry with a GMV of 18.7 billion yuan in 2024, capturing a market share of 71.1% [2] - BLUKO has emerged as the top player in the building block toy sector with a GMV of 1.7 billion yuan in 2023, holding a market share of 30.3% [2] - Copper Master, a leading brand in copper cultural and creative products, is projected to exceed 500 million yuan in GMV in 2024, with a market share of 35% [2] - 52TOYS operates with both proprietary and licensed IPs, planning to have 35 proprietary IPs and 80 licensed IPs by the end of 2024, with over 500 new SKUs launched annually [2] Group 4: Downstream Channels - Pop Mart has set a benchmark for direct sales models, increasing its number of stores from 329 to 401 between 2022 and 2024, while TOPTOY's stores grew from 8 to 40 [3] - In 2024, the GMV for Pop Mart and TOPTOY stores in mainland China is expected to be 3.83 billion yuan and 1.15 billion yuan respectively, with single-store revenues of 10.02 million yuan and 5.42 million yuan [3] - The success of Pop Mart is attributed to the strong sales of its proprietary IP products like The Monsters and Molly, resulting in significantly higher store efficiency [3]