证券研究报告·海外公司点评·家庭电器及用品(HS) 泡泡玛特（09992.HK） 2025 年半年报点评：业绩超预期，继续看好 优质 IP 在全球市场的商业价值潜力 买入（维持） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 6,301 | 13,038 | 30,480 | 42,818 | 52,361 | | 同比（%） | 36.46 | 106.92 | 133.78 | 40.48 | 22.29 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,082 | 3,125 | 10,045 | 14,256 | 17,791 | | 同比（%） | 127.55 | 188.77 | 221.40 | 41.92 | 24.80 | | Non-IFRS 净利润（百万元） | 1,191 | 3,403 | 10,689 | 15,146 | 18,888 | | 同比（%） | 107.57 | 185.86 | 214.0 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant impact of the hit series "Cang Hai Chuan" on the overall market, achieving a market share of 40.1% and attracting over 60 brand collaborations [1][10] - The analysis of Q2 shows an increase in content diversity and brand investment, with notable performances from various genres including suspense and historical dramas [1][5] Group 1: April Highlights - In April, the top two series for brand collaboration were both from Youku, with "Manhao de Rensheng" leading with 160 ads and 28 brand partners, followed by "Yi Mei" with 71 ads [2][3] - The top three series in terms of advertising numbers included "Manhao de Rensheng," "Yi Mei," and "Wuyou Du," showcasing a strong brand interest in diverse content [3][5] Group 2: May Developments - May saw the entry of several major dramas, with "Cang Hai Chuan" achieving the highest viewership at 4.49 billion, followed closely by "Zhe Yao" and "Huai Shui Zhu Ting" [7][8] - "Cang Hai Chuan" set a record with 218 total ads and 48 brand partners, while "Zhe Yao" recorded 167 ads, indicating a robust advertising market [9][10] Group 3: Brand Collaboration Trends - The success of "Cang Hai Chuan" is attributed to its star power and innovative advertising formats, which included over 10 new ad types, enhancing viewer engagement [10][12] - The series demonstrated a shift in brand collaboration, attracting a wide range of industries, including beauty and fast-moving consumer goods, breaking traditional genre boundaries [12][14] Group 4: Future Outlook - The article anticipates continued competition among major platforms, with upcoming dramas expected to further influence brand marketing strategies [16] - The trend towards high-quality, innovative content is expected to persist, with brands increasingly aligning with popular series to maximize their marketing impact [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a projected increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [2][14]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant revenue increase in Q1 2025, with a 23.23% year-on-year growth, and a net profit increase of 154.72% [6][9]. - The overall film market in 2024 was weak, with a 22% decline in box office revenue and attendance, impacting the company's screening business [9]. - The company holds a leading market share of 15.2%, maintaining its position as the top player in the industry for 16 consecutive years [9]. - The company is focusing on upgrading its non-ticket revenue strategies, which has led to an increase in the proportion and gross margin of non-ticket income [9]. - The content business remains stable, with notable growth in the gaming sector, where revenue increased by 54.71% year-on-year [9][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 12.36 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.44% year-on-year, and a net loss of 940 million yuan, a decline of 203.05% [6]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.709 billion yuan, up 23.23% year-on-year, and a net profit of 830 million yuan, up 154.72% [6]. Business Segments - The screening business saw a revenue of 6.687 billion yuan in 2024, down 20.82% year-on-year, with a gross margin decrease of 8.85% [9]. - Advertising revenue was 1.278 billion yuan, down 3.46%, but the gross margin improved by 12.48 percentage points [9]. - The company’s film production and distribution revenue increased by 85.49% to 619 million yuan, while TV series revenue decreased by 54.01% to 341 million yuan [9]. Market Outlook - The domestic film market showed a strong performance in early 2025, with box office and attendance growth exceeding 40% year-on-year [10]. - The company is expected to benefit from upcoming summer releases and has a robust pipeline of films and series scheduled for 2025 [11]. Valuation Metrics - Projected EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.52 yuan, 0.66 yuan, and 0.78 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 21.39, 17.07, and 14.37 [11].