第三，从目前的趋势看，2026年光模块较大概率维持供不应求，2027年后光入柜内、CPO等叙事或开始 演绎。 2025年ETF"涨幅王"通信ETF（515880）全年上涨125.81%居全市场第一，不仅涨幅可观，通信ETF （515880）的规模也是同类第一，截至2025年12月22日，通信ETF光模块含量占比超过48%，服务器含 量近20%，叠加光纤、铜连接等成分，核心环节成分占比超过77%，代表了海外算力的基本面底气，目 前仍是景气优选，建议持续关注。 消息面，CES 2026盛会开幕，英伟达掌门人黄仁勋发表讲话，亮点频出。黄仁勋表示，Vera Rubin 目前 正在生产中，首批搭载该系统的产品将于 2026 年下半年上市。ConnectX9 为每个 GPU 提供 1.6TB/s 的 横向扩展带宽（这意味着配套1.6T光模块）。宣布推出基于 Rubin 架构的新一代 DGX SuperPOD（超节 点），这次发布的版本由 8个 Vera Rubin NVL72 机架组成，相当于 576个 GPU 协同工作。摩尔定律已 大幅放缓，晶体管数量逐年增加的幅度，根本无法跟上模型规模每年10倍的增长速度，也无法应对 ...

半导体设备ETF（159516）跟踪的是半导体材料设备指数（931743），该指数从市场中选取涉及半导体 材料生产、加工以及半导体制造设备等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映半导体产业链上游关 键环节相关上市公司证券的整体表现。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 根据wind数据，半导体设备ETF（159516）盘中净流入1.04亿份，资金抢筹布局。 消息面，CES2026盛会开幕，英伟达掌门人黄仁勋发表讲话，亮点频出。Vera Rubin 目前正在生产中， 首批搭载该系统的产品将于 2026 年下半年上市。往后看，云厂商资本开支维持高增，并通过对传统业 务的赋能等方式构成内生闭环，缔造了良好的可持续性。 方正证券指出，当前国内存储产能与全球龙头存在显著差距，需充分扩产以确保稳定供应体系。在先进 ...

Core Insights - Nvidia's CFO Colette Kress discussed the company's ongoing investment in AI and its market position at the UBS Global Technology and AI Conference, emphasizing that the $100 billion investment in OpenAI is still in the letter of intent stage, potentially generating $400-500 billion in revenue for Nvidia [1][2] Group 1: AI Market Dynamics - Kress stated that the transition from CPU to GPU in data centers is just beginning, with an estimated $3-4 trillion to be invested in data center infrastructure by the end of the decade, half of which is related to this transition [3] - The shift is not merely a replacement of old equipment but involves adding new computing power [4] Group 2: Competitive Position - Kress asserted that Nvidia's competitive advantage has not diminished, highlighting the extreme level of collaborative design across multiple chips, which is crucial for accelerated computing and upcoming models [5] - The company’s strength lies not only in hardware but also in a complete software-hardware stack, particularly the CUDA software platform and extensive industry libraries [5] Group 3: Customer Profitability and Demand - As the AI industry transitions from generative to inferential models, there is an increase in model scale and token generation, leading to greater willingness to pay, which drives model expansion and computing power investment, creating a "flywheel effect" [6] - Kress noted that many large model developers' computing needs are a long-term issue that must be addressed gradually based on their capital situation [6] Group 4: Product Development and Financial Outlook - The next-generation architecture, Vera Rubin, has completed tape-out and is expected to launch in the second half of next year, promising significant performance improvements [7] - Despite concerns over rising HBM costs, Kress expressed confidence in maintaining a gross margin in the mid-70% range next year [8] Group 5: Inventory and Capital Allocation - Nvidia's inventory and purchase commitments surged by nearly $25 billion last quarter, indicating preparation for future growth [9] - The company plans to prioritize capital allocation towards internal demand and capacity expansion, followed by shareholder returns through stock buybacks and dividends [9]

Market Overview - As of November 19, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.18% to close at 3946.74 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index slightly declined to 13080.09 points. The ChiNext Index increased by 0.25% to 3076.85 points [1] - In the overnight U.S. market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.1%, the Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.59%, and the S&P 500 gained 0.38%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 1.82% [1] Company News - NVIDIA reported third-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations, with revenue of $57.01 billion, surpassing the market forecast of $54.92 billion. Net profit reached $31.91 billion, a year-on-year increase of 65%, and adjusted earnings per share were $1.30, above the expected $1.25 [1] - AI startup Anthropic announced a strategic partnership with Microsoft and NVIDIA, committing to purchase $30 billion worth of Azure computing resources, with the first phase utilizing NVIDIA's Grace Blackwell and Vera Rubin systems, totaling one billion watts. NVIDIA and Microsoft will invest $10 billion and $5 billion in Anthropic, respectively [2] - GlobalFoundries announced the acquisition of Singapore-based silicon photonics manufacturer AMF, aiming to leverage AMF's 200mm platform for long-distance optical communication and other applications, with plans to upgrade to a 300mm platform as market demand grows [2] Industry Insights - According to Minsheng Securities, NVIDIA continues to experience high demand, with major clients, including North American cloud service providers, increasing capital expenditures. The release of production capacity is expected to accelerate shipments of Blackwell, which will be a core growth driver in the coming quarters [3] - NVIDIA's CEO emphasized the company's visibility in achieving $500 billion in data center revenue from 2025 to 2026, indicating sustained high demand in the AI infrastructure cycle [3] - The semiconductor materials and equipment sectors are crucial for domestic substitution, with low domestic replacement rates and high ceilings for domestic alternatives. These sectors are expected to benefit from the expansion of semiconductor demand driven by the AI revolution and ongoing technology advancements [3]