计算机行业周报 20260322 计算机行业 2026 年一季度业绩前瞻 glmszqdatemark 市场回顾 本周（03.16-03.20）沪深 300 指数下跌 2.19%，中小板指数下跌 3.86%，创业 板指数上涨 1.26%，计算机（中信）板块下跌 4.54%。板块个股涨幅前五名分别 为：朗科科技、同有科技、东方国信、盛世科技、佳发教育；跌幅前五名分别为： 渤海化学、湘邮科技、川发龙蟒、御银股份、金现代。 行业要闻 阿里云 AI 算力、存储等产品最高涨价 34％。 国家安全部发布《OpenClaw"龙虾"安全养殖手册》，覆盖 AI 全生命周期安全 规范。 公司动态 英方软件：3 月 21 日消息，公司披露《关于股东及董事、高级管理人员、核心 技术人员减持股份计划公告》。截至公告披露日，公司大股东、董事、副总经理、 核心技术人员周华先生直接持有公司股份 6,519,374 股，占公司总股本的 7.81%；公司董事、副总经理、核心技术人员陈勇铨先生直接持有公司股份 813,050 股，占公司总股本的 0.97%，上述股份均为 IPO 前取得并已于 2026 年 1 月 19 日解除限售上市流通。因自身 ...

微信又有新功能。 3月22日，微信正式推出"ClawBot"插件，支持接入OpenClaw。用户扫码或复制命令，即可将OpenClaw接入微信。连接后，用户就能通过微信聊天的方 式，快速调用自己的"龙虾"高效互动。 安装路径：我—设置—插件，可以查看终端安装指令。 第二步: 按指令,在「龙虾」中安装微信插件 . 微信ClawBot 在微信中与 OpenClaw 收发消息 # 在运行 OpenClav 的设备安装指件,并开始与微信连 授。 npx -y @tencent-weixin/openclaw-weixin- cli@latest install 复制 转发 # 使用微信扫描展示的二维码，启用 微信ClawBot 插件 后即可使用。 开始扫一扫 @ WeixinTeam T 第三步: 扫描二维码, 添加微信ClawBot . 微信ClawBot 在微信中与 OpenClaw 收发消息 # 在运行 OpenClaw 的设备安装插件,并开始与微信连 授。 npx -y @tencent-weixin/openclaw-weixin- cli@latest install 复制 转发 # 使用微信扫描展示的二 ...

3月22日，据腾讯公众号， 微信正式推出微信"ClawBot"插件，支持接入OpenClaw 。用户扫码或复制命令，即可将OpenClaw接入微信。连 接后，用户就能通过微信聊天的方式，快速调用自己的"龙虾"高效互动。除此之外，腾讯"养虾车间"云端虾Lighthouse、自研虾workbuddy、 本地虾QClaw等均已就位。 3月18日，腾讯董事会主席兼首席执行官马化腾在财报沟通会中首次谈及"龙虾类应用"。他表示，龙虾类应用在办公等场景下打造了新的去中 心化入口，不仅具备模拟助理的"活人感"，也为正在规划中的微信AI开发带来了启发。 马化腾指出，"龙虾"应用与IM（即时通讯软件）结合化解了等待焦虑，且拥有个性与记忆。他透露，微信小程序未来也可被智能化和"龙虾 化"，供智能体调用互动。此外，腾讯在设计生态时将兼顾中心化与去中心化，避免服务商被管道化，保障自身流量与长期发展。因此，微信 相关AI产品的推出需要"慢工出细活"，考虑生态可持续发展，希望外界多点耐心。 腾讯字节阿里集体"养龙虾" 据中新经纬不完全统计，字节、腾讯、阿里等11家互联网大厂、科技企业已陆续推出OpenClaw产品。而早在1月，京东便已官宣 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [7][48]. Core Insights - The report highlights solid revenue growth driven by AI investments, with Tencent expected to leverage its position as the largest social media platform to enhance its value through AI [3][48]. - For FY25 Q4, Tencent reported revenue of RMB 194.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, and an adjusted net profit of RMB 64.7 billion, up 17.0% year-on-year [48]. - The report projects Tencent's revenue for 2026-2028 to be RMB 830.2 billion, RMB 901.3 billion, and RMB 974.4 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profits of RMB 277.2 billion, RMB 303.4 billion, and RMB 333.4 billion [48]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast (in million RMB)**: - 2024A: 660,257 - 2025A: 751,766 - 2026E: 830,224 - 2027E: 901,271 - 2028E: 974,440 - Year-on-year growth rates: 8.4%, 13.9%, 10.4%, 8.6%, 8.1% [5]. - **Adjusted Net Profit Forecast (in million RMB)**: - 2024A: 222,703 - 2025A: 259,626 - 2026E: 277,153 - 2027E: 303,380 - 2028E: 333,417 - Year-on-year growth rates: 41.2%, 16.6%, 6.8%, 9.5%, 9.9% [5]. - **Adjusted Net Profit Margin**: - 2024A: 33.7% - 2025A: 34.5% - 2026E: 33.4% - 2027E: 33.7% - 2028E: 34.2% [5]. Segment Performance - **Value-Added Services**: Revenue reached RMB 899 billion in FY25 Q4, a 13.8% increase year-on-year, with domestic and overseas game revenues growing by 15.1% and 31.9%, respectively [48]. - **Marketing Services**: Revenue of RMB 411 billion in FY25 Q4, up 17.5% year-on-year, driven by AI-enhanced advertising capabilities [48]. - **Financial Technology and Enterprise Services**: Revenue increased by 8.4% year-on-year, supported by growth in cloud services and WeChat store transactions [48]. Operational Data - The integration of AI into Tencent's social ecosystem is expected to drive healthy growth, with WeChat's monthly active users (MAU) showing a slight increase of 0.3% [41][42]. - The report notes a significant increase in R&D spending, which reached RMB 238 billion in FY25 Q4, reflecting a 20% year-on-year increase [19][48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [7][48]. Core Insights - The report highlights solid revenue growth driven by AI investments, with Tencent expected to achieve revenues of 830.2 billion, 901.3 billion, and 974.4 billion RMB for the years 2026 to 2028, respectively. Adjusted net profits are projected to be 277.2 billion, 303.4 billion, and 333.4 billion RMB for the same years [48]. - The fourth quarter of FY25 saw Tencent's revenue reach 194.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, with adjusted net profit rising by 17.0% to 64.7 billion RMB [48]. - The report emphasizes the integration of AI into Tencent's advertising technology and social ecosystem, enhancing user engagement and driving revenue growth across various segments [3][41]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts (Million RMB)**: - 2024A: 660,257 - 2025A: 751,766 - 2026E: 830,224 - 2027E: 901,271 - 2028E: 974,440 - Revenue growth rates are projected at 8.4%, 13.9%, 10.4%, 8.6%, and 8.1% respectively [5]. - **Adjusted Net Profit Forecasts (Million RMB)**: - 2024A: 222,703 - 2025A: 259,626 - 2026E: 277,153 - 2027E: 303,380 - 2028E: 333,417 - Adjusted net profit growth rates are 41.2%, 16.6%, 6.8%, 9.5%, and 9.9% respectively [5]. - **Adjusted Net Profit Margin**: - 2024A: 33.7% - 2025A: 34.5% - 2026E: 33.4% - 2027E: 33.7% - 2028E: 34.2% [5]. Segment Performance - **Value-Added Services**: Revenue increased by 13.8% year-on-year to 899 billion RMB in Q4, with domestic and overseas game revenues growing by 15.1% and 31.9%, respectively [28][36]. - **Marketing Services**: Revenue rose by 17.5% year-on-year to 411 billion RMB, benefiting from AI-driven advertising capabilities [32]. - **Financial Technology and Enterprise Services**: Revenue grew by 8.4% year-on-year, driven by increased cloud service revenues and expanded transaction volumes in WeChat stores [39]. Operational Data - The report notes that WeChat's monthly active users (MAU) increased by 0.3% in Q4, while QQ's mobile MAU decreased by 1.7% [42]. - The number of paid users for value-added services increased by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter [46]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Advice - The report suggests that Tencent, as the largest social media traffic entry point, is well-positioned to leverage AI to reconstruct platform value. The estimated reasonable valuation for the stock is 621 HKD per share based on an 18x PE ratio for 2026 [48][49].

新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 总第 4983 期 2026 年 3 月 19 日 星期四 研究观点 【公司研究】 海天国际 (1882，买入）：景气度分化下保持稳健增长 康哲药业(867，买入）： 集采出清，创新产品逐步发力，公司重回快速增长轨道 【公司评论】 艾迪康控股(9860.HK，未评级）：双平台驱动价值重估，"ICL+CRO"战略跨越正当时 阳光保险（6963.HK，未评级）：寿险 NBV 大增 48%，财险剔除融保险后承保盈利改善， 利润创上市以来新高 【行业评论】 互联网行业评论 评级变化 | 公司 | 代码 | 评级 | 目标价(港元） | | | 2025年EPS(港元) | | | 2026年EPS(港元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 新 旧 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | | 海天国际 | 1882 | 买入 买入 30.00 | 30.00 | 0 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tencent's financial performance demonstrates resilience and growth, driven by significant investments in AI, which have not only supported revenue and profit but also optimized business efficiency across various sectors [5][16]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, Tencent achieved revenue of 194.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%, with a non-IFRS net profit of 64.69 billion yuan, up 17% [1]. - For the full year 2025, Tencent's revenue grew by 14% to 751.77 billion yuan, and non-IFRS net profit increased by 17% to 259.6 billion yuan, accelerating growth compared to the previous year [1]. AI Integration and Business Growth - AI is becoming a new engine for Tencent's business, enhancing growth in gaming, advertising, and social sectors, with enterprise AI demand leading to Tencent Cloud achieving scalable profitability for the first time [1][6]. - The integration of AI into existing services has shown a strong return on investment (ROI), with significant improvements in user engagement and operational efficiency [6][10]. Advertising and Marketing Services - In Q4, the marketing services revenue grew by 17% to 41.1 billion yuan, driven by AI-enhanced advertising targeting capabilities and expanded closed-loop marketing within the WeChat ecosystem [6][7]. - The gross margin for marketing services increased from 55% to 58% in 2025, reflecting improved operational efficiency [6]. Gaming Sector Insights - Concerns about AI disrupting the gaming industry are addressed, with AI currently enhancing content creation and user experience rather than fully developing games independently [8][10]. - AI applications in gaming have significantly accelerated content production and improved user engagement, with notable advancements in titles like "Peacekeeper Elite" and "Under the Heavens" [10]. Investment in AI and Future Prospects - Tencent's capital expenditure reached a record high of 79.2 billion yuan, with R&D investment at 85.75 billion yuan, part of which is allocated to AI infrastructure and talent acquisition [12]. - The company plans to double its investment in new AI products in 2026, indicating a strong commitment to expanding its AI capabilities [12][16]. AI Product Development - Tencent's AI product matrix is rapidly expanding, with notable applications like Yuanbao and WorkBuddy, which integrate AI functionalities into high-frequency applications [13][14]. - The upcoming release of the Mixuan 3.0 model is expected to enhance Tencent's capabilities in multi-modal applications, further solidifying its position in the AI landscape [12][16]. Market Position and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that Tencent's core business remains resilient, with its stock price not fully reflecting the potential "AI premium" [16]. - The company is positioned uniquely with vast social, content, and commercial networks, allowing it to leverage AI across various business segments, marking a transition back to a growth-oriented company [16].

新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 总第 4983 期 2026 年 3 月 19 日 星期四 研究观点 【公司研究】 海天国际 (1882，买入）：景气度分化下保持稳健增长 康哲药业(867，买入）： 集采出清，创新产品逐步发力，公司重回快速增长轨道 【公司评论】 艾迪康控股(9860.HK，未评级）：双平台驱动价值重估，"ICL+CRO"战略跨越正当时 阳光保险（6963.HK，未评级）：寿险 NBV 大增 48%，财险剔除融保险后承保盈利改善， 利润创上市以来新高 【行业评论】 互联网行业评论 评级变化 | 公司 | 代码 | 评级 | 目标价(港元） | | | 2025年EPS(港元) | | | 2026年EPS(港元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 新 旧 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | | 海天国际 | 1882 | 买入 买入 30.00 | 30.00 | 0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent with a target price of HKD 757.33, down from the previous HKD 792 [6][5]. Core Insights - Tencent's 4Q25 performance met expectations, with a revenue growth of 12.7%, slightly above consensus estimates. The company plans to increase AI investments in 2026, with adjusted net profit rising by 17% [1][5]. - The report highlights the improvement in Tencent's agent capabilities, particularly with the launch of AI products like QClaw and WorkBuddy, which are expected to enhance long-term competitiveness in the AI sector [2][3]. - Tencent Cloud achieved an adjusted operating profit of RMB 5 billion in 2025, indicating a turnaround in profitability [3]. Financial Performance - In 4Q25, Tencent's revenue reached RMB 1,944 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 12.7%. The value-added services, advertising, and fintech segments saw growth rates of 14%, 17%, and 8% respectively [12][11]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to be RMB 290.6 billion, reflecting a decrease of 2.9% for 2026 and 2.3% for 2027 due to increased AI investment costs [32][5]. - The report forecasts revenue for 2026 to be RMB 845 billion, with a growth rate of 12.4% [10][32]. Game Segment Insights - Domestic game revenue in 4Q25 grew by 15%, with significant contributions from titles like "Valorant" and "Ming Chao" [4][25]. - The upcoming release of "Honor of Kings World" is expected to generate RMB 3-6 billion in its first year, with strong pre-registration numbers [28][29]. AI Investment and Product Development - Tencent plans to double its AI-related investments in 2026, with significant R&D expenditures projected at RMB 180 billion for the year [3][19]. - The company is actively developing its AI product ecosystem, with the OpenClaw series aimed at enhancing user engagement across various applications [13][14]. Advertising and Revenue Growth - Advertising revenue in 4Q25 increased by 17.5%, driven by improvements in eCPM and user engagement on platforms like WeChat and Video Accounts [11][12]. - The report notes that AI-driven advertising has significantly contributed to revenue growth, with a stable increase in exposure and user participation [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent with a target price of 757.33 HKD, down from the previous 792 HKD, corresponding to a 20.8x PE valuation for 2026 [6][5]. Core Insights - Tencent's 4Q25 performance met expectations, with a revenue growth of 12.7%, slightly above consensus estimates. The company plans to increase AI investments in 2026, with a focus on enhancing its agent capabilities [1][2]. - The report highlights Tencent's strategic shift towards AI products, with the launch of OpenClaw and related applications, indicating a competitive edge in the AI landscape [2][3]. - Tencent Cloud achieved an adjusted operating profit of 5 billion RMB in 2025, marking a turnaround, while the company anticipates a doubling of AI-related investments in 2026 [3][5]. Financial Performance - In 4Q25, Tencent's domestic game revenue grew by 15%, with significant contributions from new titles. The report suggests monitoring the revenue from upcoming games in March and April [4][28]. - The adjusted net profit for Tencent is projected to be 290.6 billion RMB for 2026, reflecting a slight decrease due to increased AI spending [32][5]. - The report forecasts Tencent's revenue for 2026 to be 845.1 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 12.4% [10][32]. AI Product Development - Tencent is intensifying its AI product development, with significant investments in the Claw product line, which includes QClaw and WorkBuddy, aimed at enhancing user engagement and operational efficiency [2][13]. - The company is focusing on integrating AI into its existing platforms, with plans for deeper integration of AI capabilities into WeChat [3][13]. - The report notes that Tencent's AI products are expected to evolve from general models to more specialized applications across various sectors, enhancing long-term competitiveness [2][3]. Game Revenue and Projections - The report emphasizes the strong performance of Tencent's gaming segment, with expectations for new game releases to drive revenue growth in the upcoming quarters [4][28]. - The anticipated launch of "Honor of Kings World" in April 2026 is projected to generate 3-6 billion RMB in its first year, leveraging the existing user base of the original game [28][29]. - Overall, Tencent's gaming revenue is expected to continue its upward trajectory, supported by new titles and seasonal events [25][28].