来源：环球网 在成本高企的背景下，苹果首款折叠屏iPhone因面板、铰链及轻量化材料等核心组件成本较高，定价被 推向市场预测区间高端。富邦研究结合供应链分析与苹果利润结构，给出2399美元的预测售价。此前， 郭明錤曾预测该机型售价在2000美元至2500美元之间，彭博社马克·古尔曼则预计售价约2000美元。 尽管定价偏高，但富邦研究对该机型销售表现持乐观态度。以7%的市场渗透率为测算基础，这款折叠 屏iPhone的生命周期销量预计可达1540万部，其中2026年出货量约540万部。 【环球网科技综合报道】11月25日消息，据Investing报道，富邦研究近日发布行业报告，2026年全球智 能手机市场或将持续萎缩，但苹果首款折叠屏iPhone的亮相有望成为市场亮点，其预计售价2399美元， 生命周期销量预计达1540万部。 报告指出，2026年全球智能手机出货量预计降至12亿台，同比缩减4%；中国市场出货量约为2.75亿 台，同比下降3%；iPhone整体出货量预计为2.34亿台，同比减少4%。零组件成本上涨成为行业主要压 力来源，其中DRAM合约价较2024年第四季度上涨逾75%，2026年智能手机物料成本 ...

Core Insights - 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for Apple, with significant product innovations expected across its core product lines, including foldable devices and smart home products [1] Product Innovations - The foldable iPhone is expected to launch in September 2026, featuring a 5.3-inch screen when folded and a 7.8-inch display when opened, powered by the A20 Pro chip and 12GB of RAM, with a starting price of $1999 [2] - The iPhone 18 Air will see targeted upgrades, including dual 48MP rear cameras and will launch alongside the foldable iPhone [3] - The entry-level iPhone 17e is set to debut in Spring 2026, featuring the A19 chip and likely incorporating the Dynamic Island feature [3] Mac Product Line - The MacBook line will see regular upgrades in early 2026, with a new entry-level model featuring a 13-inch LCD screen and A18 Pro chip priced below $999 [5] - Major innovations in the MacBook Pro line will include the introduction of OLED displays and touch functionality, aimed at competing with high-end Windows laptops [7] - The Mac Studio will be updated with M5 Max/M5 Ultra chips, and a new Studio Display is expected to feature miniLED technology [7] Smart Home Expansion - Apple plans to release a smart home control hub in Spring 2026, featuring a 7-inch display and priced at $350, integrating various smart home functionalities [8] - Upgraded versions of HomePod mini and Apple TV will be launched, featuring new IoT chips, with Apple TV potentially supporting Apple Intelligence features [9] Other Product Developments - The iPad line will continue to diversify with OLED iPad mini and A18 chip models, while the first smart glasses are not expected until 2027 [10] - The Apple Watch will receive a significant upgrade with the addition of Touch ID for enhanced security and convenience [10] - Apple's ongoing efforts to reduce reliance on external suppliers are evident in its development of in-house chips and technologies, enhancing product competitiveness [10]

苹果将推出多款廉价产品 @快科技：苹果将在2026年第一季度推出多款廉价产品，其中包括搭载A18 Pro的MacBook、入门版iPad，此外还有iPhone 17系列的最后一款 机型——iPhone 17e。 苹果计划于2026年第一季度发布首款低价MacBook，进一步下沉入门级笔记本市场。 该机最大的亮点是首次在Mac系列采用iPhone芯片——A18 Pro（2024年iPhone 16 Pro同款），台积电第二代3nm工艺，集成6核CPU、6核 GPU、16核神经引擎，支持Apple Intelligence。 值得注意的是，自2026年开始，苹果将彻底改变以往的产品节奏，9月份不会发布iPhone 18标准版，而是推迟到下一年初与"e"后缀机型同时 发布。 也就是，2026年下半年将发布iPhone 18 Pro Max、iPhone 18 Pro和iPhone 18 Air，此外还有苹果首款折叠屏iPhone。 2027年将发布iPhone 18和iPhone 18e机型，此后，iPhone标准版+e机型将常年维持在上半年发布。 鸭鸭说：谁能想到有一天苹果越来越便宜…… 何小鹏参观小米展台 @新 ...

Market Performance - US stock indices closed mixed on November 7, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.16% at 46,987.1 points, the S&P 500 up 0.13% at 6,728.8 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.21% at 23,004.54 points. For the week, the Dow Jones fell 1.21%, the S&P 500 fell 1.63%, and the Nasdaq fell 3.04% [1] - European stock indices all closed lower, with the German DAX down 0.77% at 23,550.71 points, the French CAC40 down 0.18% at 7,950.18 points, and the UK FTSE 100 down 0.55% at 9,682.57 points. For the week, the DAX fell 1.7%, the CAC40 fell 2.1%, and the FTSE 100 fell 0.36% [2][3] Employment Data - The US Labor Department failed to release the October non-farm payroll report due to a government shutdown, marking the second consecutive absence of this report. This situation raises concerns about the labor market and complicates the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts [5] - Economists had previously expected a reduction of 60,000 jobs in October, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.5%. The shutdown has led to a lack of official data, making private sector reports the only available employment indicators [6] - A report indicated that US companies announced over 153,000 layoffs in October, the highest level for this month in over 20 years, with total layoffs for the year nearing 1.1 million, the highest since the pandemic began in 2020. Factors contributing to this increase include the rise of artificial intelligence, slowing consumer and business spending, and rising costs [6] Semiconductor Industry - TSMC plans to raise prices for advanced chips manufactured using processes below 5nm, having notified major clients including Apple. The upcoming A20 chip, which will be produced using TSMC's 2nm process, is expected to see an average price of $280, which is at least a 50% increase compared to the 3nm process [7] - TSMC's price increase is attributed to the high costs associated with new technology investments and production line modifications, reinforcing its pricing power in the advanced process segment. This move is likely to lead to higher prices and profit pressures in the flagship smartphone market by 2026 [7] Monetary Policy - St. Louis Fed President Musalem indicated that there is still room for 50 to 75 basis points of monetary policy easing, aimed at supporting the labor market [8][9] - The Fed has maintained a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments, with recent cuts reflecting concerns over a cooling labor market. The Vice Chair of the Fed, Philip Jefferson, noted that current rates are near neutral levels, suggesting a gradual approach to future adjustments [9][10]

Market Performance - On November 7, US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.16% to 46,987.1 points, the S&P 500 up by 0.13% to 6,728.8 points, and the Nasdaq down by 0.21% to 23,004.54 points. For the week, the Dow fell by 1.21%, the S&P 500 by 1.63%, and the Nasdaq by 3.04% [1] - European stock indices all closed lower, with the German DAX down by 0.77% to 23,550.71 points, the French CAC40 down by 0.18% to 7,950.18 points, and the UK FTSE 100 down by 0.55% to 9,682.57 points. For the week, the DAX fell by 1.7%, the CAC40 by 2.1%, and the FTSE 100 by 0.36% [2] Employment Data - The US Labor Statistics Bureau failed to release the October non-farm payroll report due to a government shutdown, marking the second consecutive absence of this report. Economists had previously expected a reduction of 60,000 jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.5% [4] - In October, US companies announced over 153,000 layoffs, the highest for this period in over 20 years, and nearly 1.1 million layoffs have been announced this year, the highest since the pandemic began in 2020. Factors contributing to this increase include the rise of artificial intelligence, slowing consumer and business spending, and rising costs [5][6] Consumer Confidence - Consumer confidence in the US has dropped to its lowest level in over three years, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index falling from 53.6 in October to 50.3 in November. The current economic conditions index decreased by 6.3 points to a record low of 52.3, reflecting growing concerns about the impact of the government shutdown [6] Semiconductor Industry - TSMC plans to raise prices for advanced chips manufactured using processes below 5nm, notifying major clients including Apple. The average price for chips using TSMC's 2nm process is expected to reach $280, which is at least a 50% increase compared to the 3nm process. This price hike is attributed to high costs associated with new technology and production line modifications [8][9] Federal Reserve Policy - St. Louis Fed President Musalem indicated that there is still room for 50 to 75 basis points of policy adjustment, emphasizing that the Fed's recent monetary policy actions aimed to support the labor market [9][10] - Fed Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson supported the recent 25 basis point rate cut, citing increased risks to the labor market and the need for cautious policy adjustments as rates approach neutral levels [11] Commodity Market - On November 7, international precious metal futures saw a general increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.42% to $4,007.8 per ounce and silver futures up by 0.57% to $48.225 per ounce. The ongoing government shutdown has intensified economic data concerns, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [12]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Apple's upcoming Q4 FY2025 earnings report is expected to show positive results, driven by resilient service revenue and the company's shift of production for the U.S. market outside of China [1][2] Group 1: Service Revenue Performance - The service business growth rate increased to approximately 13% in Q3, with guidance for Q4 indicating a similar growth rate, suggesting limited impact from the "external link payment" option introduced in the App Store [1][2] - The "external link payment" option was implemented following a federal court ruling requiring Apple to allow users to complete in-app purchases through external channels, stemming from a legal dispute with Epic Games [1] Group 2: Production and Cost Management - Apple has taken swift action to relocate some of its production lines for products sold in the U.S. from China to countries like India and Vietnam, aiming to mitigate the impact of semiconductor-related tariffs [1] Group 3: Financial Outlook - The company is expected to achieve strong high single-digit revenue growth in Q4 FY2025, with the first quarter of FY2026 also projected to reflect a positive product cycle [2] - Market consensus anticipates earnings per share of $1.77 and revenue of $102.19 billion for the upcoming earnings report, compared to $1.64 per share and $94.93 billion in the same quarter last year [2]

Key Points - The article discusses the departure of Zhu Lidan, the legal representative of Hongsheng Beverage Group, and the investigation of several employees at the production base, indicating potential internal issues within the company [3][5]. - It highlights the significant market share of DJI in the global action camera and panoramic camera markets, with DJI holding nearly 70% and 50% market shares respectively [12]. - The article mentions the appointment of new executives at Zero One Wanwu, indicating a strategic shift in leadership [13][14]. - It reports on the internal personnel changes at JD.com, including the dismissal of Shao Jingping, which reflects ongoing adjustments within the company [10]. - The article notes the potential layoffs at Amazon, with up to 30,000 positions being cut, marking the largest reduction in 2023 [34]. - It discusses the launch of Qualcomm's AI200 and AI250 chips, which aim to challenge Nvidia in the AI chip market, resulting in a significant stock price increase for Qualcomm [38][39]. Group 1 - Zhu Lidan's departure from Hongsheng and the investigation of employees suggest internal turmoil [3][5]. - DJI's dominance in the action camera market with a 66% share and 43% in the panoramic camera market indicates a strong competitive position [12]. - The appointment of new executives at Zero One Wanwu reflects a strategic leadership change [13][14]. Group 2 - JD.com's internal personnel changes, including the dismissal of Shao Jingping, highlight ongoing organizational adjustments [10]. - Amazon's potential layoffs of up to 30,000 positions represent a significant workforce reduction [34]. - Qualcomm's introduction of AI200 and AI250 chips aims to compete with Nvidia, leading to a notable increase in stock price [38][39].

Core Viewpoint - Apple is developing the A20 processor for the iPhone 18 series, which will be manufactured using TSMC's 2nm process, resulting in a significant cost increase to approximately $280, representing an over 86% rise compared to the A19 processor used in the iPhone 17 series [2][3]. Cost Analysis - The A20 processor will be the most expensive component in the iPhone 18, surpassing the previous highest cost component, the display, which was around $110 for the iPhone 16 Pro series [2]. - The A18 Pro processor used in the iPhone 16 Pro series had a cost of $135, while the A19 Pro processor in the iPhone 17 Pro series cost $150, indicating a trend of increasing processor costs [2]. Technology Transition - The A20 processor marks a transition from the previous three generations of 3nm technology to the latest 2nm technology, promising significant improvements in performance and efficiency [3]. - TSMC has reportedly informed clients that the last 3nm chips have seen a 20% price increase over previous generations, with an additional 50% increase for the new 2nm process, although this has not been officially confirmed [3].

Market Overview - The main board saw significant gains with stocks like Huanrui Century (+10.07%), Dahua Intelligent (+10.05%), and Special Information (+10.04%) leading the charge [1] - The ChiNext board also performed well, with Keda Guochuang and Rongxin Culture both increasing by 20.01% [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation board was led by Tiancheng Technology (+10.16%) and Guodun Quantum (+9.06%) [1] - Active sub-industries included SW Publishing (+3.07%) and SW Film and Animation (+2.22%) [1] Domestic News - Li Jidian's General Manager Zhu Xianguo indicated that high-end memory is in short supply due to AI demand, with expectations for storage foundry prices to rise in Q4 [1] - Alibaba Cloud's innovative computing pooling solution "Aegaeon" was selected for the top academic conference SOSP2025, showing an 82% reduction in required NVIDIA H20 GPUs for large AI models [1] - STMicroelectronics launched its first 200MP large-format mobile image sensor SCC80XS, set for mass production in Q1 2026 [1] - Guochuang Technology announced the completion of assembly for its G6 full-size new display inkjet printing equipment, compatible with various substrate sizes [1] Company Announcements - Fulede reported a total revenue of 2.146 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.98%, with a net profit of 211 million yuan, up 14.38% [2] - Deep Technology achieved a revenue of 871 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 6.28% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 94 million yuan, up 1.32% [2] - Zhongjing Electronics reported a revenue of 2.401 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a 15.75% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 26 million yuan, up 127.34% [2] - Guangha Communication's revenue reached 332 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 41.9% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 35 million yuan, up 69.09% [2] International News - Amazon introduced smart delivery glasses currently in development, featuring a single green fixed display and adaptive lenses [3] - STMicroelectronics forecasted Q4 sales below market expectations, with Q3 net revenue at $3.19 billion, a 2.0% decline year-on-year [3] - Apple is advancing the A20 chip development for the 2026 iPhone 18 series, expected to be the first processor using TSMC's 2nm process, with an estimated cost of $280 [3] - South Korea's semiconductor exports are projected to exceed $165 billion this year, building on last year's $141.9 billion [3]

Core Insights - The competition in the foldable smartphone market is intensifying, with Apple's anticipated entry in September 2026 alongside the iPhone 18 series, aiming to redefine market dynamics through differentiated technology [1][5] - Despite potential production challenges that could delay the launch to 2027, major institutions like UBS predict a 2026 release, with a target price around $2000, leveraging Apple's robust supply chain management [1][3] - Apple plans to implement a dual-launch strategy starting in 2026, introducing foldable models alongside Pro and Air versions to cover various market segments [1] Technology Path - Apple is adopting a cautious yet innovative approach, with multiple patents indicating diverse folding mechanisms, including a "Z" shape and a horizontal "book-style" fold, likely opting for the latter for its first foldable device [2] - The expected screen size for the foldable iPhone is between 7.8 to 8 inches, with future iterations planned for more advanced folding technologies [2] Supply Chain Readiness - Production preparations are underway, with Foxconn expected to start manufacturing foldable iPhones by late Q3 to early Q4 of 2025, while key components like screens are already being sourced [3] - Samsung Display plans to produce 7 to 8 million foldable panels in 2026 to meet Apple's demand for 15 to 20 million units, although initial shipments may only reach 5 to 7 million due to high pricing [3] Market Dynamics - Existing players like Yian Technology have established mature supply chains, providing critical components for competitors like Huawei, which could serve as a benchmark for Apple's market entry [4] - The global foldable smartphone market is projected to grow significantly, with a 30.8% increase in China expected in 2024, indicating a competitive landscape for Apple as it enters the market [4] - Apple's pricing strategy around $2000 may limit initial market penetration, but as production scales and technology evolves, the foldable iPhone could become a new growth driver post-2027 [4][5]