ab 13 March 2025 Global Research First Read China Banks US marketing feedback: Warmer sentiment towards China; Modest positioning increase LO still hesitant; Macro funds active; PB saw some fund flowing into China In our US marketing trip last week, we met c30 institutions, with c 40% being EM long- only funds, 40% EM-focused hedge funds, and the rest 10-20% macro funds. Though still underweight on China, US investors' sentiment appear warmer towards China market, particularly in AI/ tech/ Internet sectors. ...

13 March 2025 Equity Research Report Shengyi Technology (600183 CH) Buy: A good proxy for GTC 2025 Further upside ahead: Shengyi's share price has risen c18% since 16 January 2025 (vs +4% CSI300), mainly as the market has priced in a higher demand for high-speed, ultra-low loss copper clad laminates (CCLs) and printed circuit boards (PCBs). This is driven by strong demand from data center customers — a key growth driver that we highlighted in our previous analysis. In this report, we maintain our optimistic ...

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK/600875 CH) China H/A: Hold/Hold: 2024 results preview 2024 results likely a miss: We expect Dongfang Electric (DFE) to report an attributable net profit of RMB3,155m in 2024 (down 11% y-o-y), 15% below Bloomberg consensus, dragged by low-margin orders in thermal and hydro equipment. We estimate the company's gross margin will drop from 18.8% in 2023 to 17.6% in 2024. But on a positive note, DFE announced in February that it aims to lift its cash dividend payout ratio by >1ppt ever ...

Summary of the China Solar Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the **China Solar Industry**, discussing supply and demand dynamics, policy measures, and market trends following a renewables tour in Beijing [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Supply and Demand Outlook - There is a **mixed outlook** for supply and demand in the solar sector, with a stronger conviction in **supply-side reductions** and clearer visibility on policy measures aimed at phasing out excess capacity [2][3]. - Despite a recent surge in installations, long-term demand visibility remains **muted**, posing a challenge for investors considering long-term exposure to the sector [2]. Policy Developments - Following the **NPC meeting**, experts anticipate more policies to curb competition in key industries, including solar. Existing measures like self-disciplined utilization cuts are effective, but new measures are expected to promote industry consolidation and advanced technologies [3]. - New capacities will only be permitted after outdated capacity is eliminated, aiming for a **balanced supply-demand** and improved utilization rates of **60-70%** within the next 2-3 years, up from less than **50%** currently [3]. Installation Projections - Experts project around **250GW** of solar installations in China for **2025**, slightly above market expectations of **200-250GW**. This is supported by a strong pipeline of utility-scale projects scheduled for interconnection in 2025 [4]. - A surge in installations is expected from **March to May 2025**, with a decline anticipated in the second half of the year. Annual additions post-2025 are expected to remain above **200GW**, driven by net zero goals and non-hydro renewables consumption quotas [4]. Tariff Trends - The on-grid tariff for renewables is expected to **trend down** due to increased volume and lower costs. However, non-technical costs, such as project development fees, may offset this decline, leading to a cautiously optimistic outlook on solar project returns [5]. Risks and Opportunities Downside Risks - Major downside risks include slower-than-expected growth in installed renewable energy capacity, larger-than-expected tariff cuts, and competition from other power resources under future reforms [7]. Upside Risks - Upside risks include faster-than-expected growth in installed capacity, smaller-than-expected tariff cuts, and potential share gains for solar energy compared to other power resources [8]. Additional Insights - The discussions highlighted the importance of **policy measures** in shaping the future of the solar industry, emphasizing the need for strategic planning and adaptation to changing market conditions [2][3][4]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China solar industry, providing a comprehensive overview for stakeholders and investors.

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Company Overview - **Company**: Ningde Times (300750.SZ) - **Industry**: Battery and Energy Management Key Financial Metrics - **2024 Revenue**: 362 billion CNY, down 9.7% YoY [3] - **2024 Net Profit**: 50.7 billion CNY, up 15.0% YoY [3] - **2024 Q4 Net Profit**: 14.7 billion CNY, up 13.6% YoY, up 12.2% QoQ [3] - **2024 Operating Cash Flow**: Approximately 97 billion CNY, up 4.49% YoY [3] - **2024 Gross Margin**: 24.44%, up 5.26 percentage points YoY [3] - **2024 Q4 Gross Margin**: 15.04%, down 16.1 percentage points QoQ [3] Performance Insights - **Quarterly Performance**: Q4 2024 net profit and revenue met market expectations, with a notable increase in quarterly performance compared to Q3 [3] - **Impact Factors**: Q4 gross margin affected by accounting adjustments, delayed overseas shipments, and reduced export tax rebates [3] - **Capacity Utilization**: Significant increase in capacity utilization from approximately 65.33% in H1 2024 to about 86.40% in H2 2024 [3] Business Segments - **Power Battery System Revenue**: 253 billion CNY, down 11.29% YoY, with a gross margin of 23.94% [3] - **Energy Storage Battery System Revenue**: 57.3 billion CNY, down 4.36% YoY, with a gross margin of 26.84% [3] - **Battery Materials and Recycling Revenue**: 28.7 billion CNY, down 14.59% YoY, with a gross margin of 10.51% [3] - **Battery Mineral Resources Revenue**: 5.49 billion CNY, down 28.98% YoY, with a gross margin of 8.53% [3] Market Position and Strategy - **Global Market Share**: 37.9% in global power battery installations, up 1.3 percentage points YoY [3] - **International Expansion**: Plans for H-share issuance to enhance international capital operations and accelerate global business expansion [3] - **Investor Returns**: 2024 cash dividends of approximately 20 billion CNY, representing 50% of net profit, aimed at enhancing shareholder value [4] Future Outlook - **2025 Projections**: Expected overall shipment volume of 650 GWh, up 37% YoY, driven by stable demand in the new energy vehicle sector and increasing energy storage needs [3] - **Profitability**: Anticipated stable profit levels with a higher proportion of high-end battery sales in 2025 [3] Risks - **Potential Risks**: Include lower-than-expected sales of new energy vehicles, significant price declines in power batteries, raw material price volatility, and geopolitical risks affecting overseas operations [6] Investment Recommendation - **Rating**: Maintain "Buy" rating with a target price of 355 CNY, based on a projected PE ratio of 23x for 2025 [6]

鸿泉物联 20250316 摘要 Q&A 请简要介绍一下鸿泉物联的基本情况和业务发展历程。 鸿泉物联成立于 2009 年，总部位于杭州，目前公司员工总数约为 600 多人。公 司主要从事汽车电子相关产品的研发和生产，最早从客车智能网联系统起步， 随后扩展到重型卡车领域，包括 Telematics Box 和行驶记录仪等产品。2019 年，公司在科创板上市。然而，由于疫情及宏观经济下行影响，商用车销量下 降，公司业绩受到较大冲击。2024 年，公司收入达到 5.2 亿元，接近盈亏平衡， 业绩开始恢复。目前公司业务分为四条产品线：智能网联、智能座舱、控制器 和软件平台开发。 • 鸿泉物联业务涵盖智能网联（T-Box、EDR）、智能座舱（中控屏、仪表 盘）、控制器（热管理、座椅等）及软件平台开发，服务车企和政务部门， 2024 年营收 5.2 亿元，接近盈亏平衡。 • 公司自 2022 年起拓展乘用车和两轮车市场，2024 年乘用车收入占比 17%， 两轮车占比 1.6%，与东风、广汽、长安、吉利及春风动力、钱江摩托等建 立合作关系。 • 鸿泉物联通过丰富产品线、与行业领先企业合作、加大研发投入等方式应 对市场竞争 ...

Summary of Xingfa Group Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - Xingfa Group possesses rich phosphate rock resources, with controlled reserves expected to reach approximately 790 million tons, and current annual production capacity of about 5.85 million tons, with long-term planned capacity of 10 million tons [2][3][9] - The company has rapidly developed its new materials business, particularly in DMSO and electronic chemicals, with DMSO accounting for over half of global production and being a major profit source [2][4][14] - In the organic silicon sector, Xingfa Group ranks fourth nationally with a capacity of 560,000 tons, and leads in glyphosate production with a capacity of 230,000 tons, expanding its market presence through acquisitions [2][5] Core Insights and Arguments - The phosphate rock market is currently experiencing high prices due to environmental regulations and demand, with expectations to maintain high levels until the end of 2026 [11][25] - The company benefits from low self-generated electricity costs due to its hydroelectric resources, significantly reducing production costs [7] - The new materials segment is projected to contribute significantly to profits, with DMSO and electronic chemicals expected to drive growth [14][23] - The company is actively investing in green chemistry R&D and plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with expected dividend yields significantly above industry averages by 2025 [8] Additional Important Points - The domestic glyphosate market is recovering, with increased operating rates and potential price increases due to rising demand [18][24] - The organic silicon market shows strong growth potential, with domestic demand expected to grow significantly in the coming years [20][21] - The company’s financial metrics indicate a low valuation compared to peers, with a price-to-book ratio of approximately 1.1, suggesting potential for upward price movement [6][26] - The company is positioned to benefit from the tight supply-demand balance in the phosphate market, with limited new capacity expected in the near term [10][25] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the strategic positioning and future outlook of Xingfa Group within the phosphate and chemical industries.

摘要 中信证券策略聚焦专题会：高切低后的市场演 20250316 Q&A 当前市场高低切换现象背后的主要驱动因素是什么？ 高低切换现象本质上反映了市场投资者心态的变化。原先驱动市场上涨的一些 板块，其上涨驱动力已逐渐减弱，投资者开始寻找新的风格和行业方向。过去 三到四年，以题材股为主要驱动的市场环境，使得投资者对稳定核心大票的估 值不再敏感，对这些公司的基本面好转也不敏感。当纯主题题材被炒作至高位 后，投资者发现许多过去几年被忽视的板块估值较低，并且在政策提振消费或 交易性需求推动下，这些板块容易表现出弹性。类似情形在 2016 年和 2017 年 • 市场风格转变：投资者对稳定核心资产的估值不再敏感，转而关注低估值 且具政策提振弹性的板块，类似 2016-2017 年情形，信心恢复后将重估具 备长久竞争力的公司。 • 核心资产机会：经历题材股主导后，稳定大票估值较低且基本面改善未充 分反映。外部因素或致年中调整，中美经济和政策周期同步共振有望推动 美股、A 股、港股共振上行，利好核心资产。 • 资金流动影响：仅靠宏观叙事和资金流无法持续推动行情，港股估值洼地 逻辑已不成立。内资配置新经济方向优秀公司仍有巨大 ...

Summary of Hezhong Electric's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hezhong Electric - **Industry**: AIDC (Automatic Identification and Data Capture) Key Points and Arguments Business Growth and Performance - Hezhong Electric has made significant progress in the AIDC sector, particularly in the renewable energy field, with notable advancements in HVDC (High Voltage Direct Current) development [3][5][12] - The company expects a growth rate of **30% to 40%** in its wind power business, with a steady recovery in gross margins [3][5] - The solar storage business is anticipated to double its growth due to recognition from top state-owned enterprises and new technology applications [3][5] - The large transmission business is expected to benefit from military procurement demand, with a potential **1 billion** level order from Chengfei Group, leading to a **20% to 30%** compound growth rate [3][4][5] Management and Governance Changes - The appointment of the CTO as president has led to comprehensive reforms in the business units, significantly boosting sales incentives across wind power, solar, storage, and large transmission sectors [3][6] - These governance changes have improved operational efficiency and market competitiveness, reflected in the strong performance in Q4 [6] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Hezhong Electric is viewed as a preferred stock in the AIDC sector due to its enhanced comprehensive capabilities and ability to switch valuations amid high market demand [3][5] - The company is positioned to maintain its competitive edge in the wind power sector as market price competition eases [8] - In the solar storage sector, the company is leveraging bidding successes and new technology recognition for accelerated growth [8] Future Development Directions - Hezhong Electric aims to achieve a qualitative transformation in its comprehensive capabilities, similar to CATL in the lithium battery industry, maintaining strong growth post-cycle [7] - The company is expected to complete valuation switches and maintain high growth expectations beyond 2026 [7] - The focus on overseas market expansion through HVDC technology upgrades is anticipated to significantly enhance revenue and profit [8][14] Product and Technology Positioning - The AIDC product market positioning is gaining attention, with Hezhong Electric leveraging its high-power inverter technology to lead in both domestic and international markets [11] - The company has established a strong foothold in the HVDC sector, with ongoing collaborations that may facilitate breakthroughs in the U.S. market [12] Financial Projections - Hezhong Electric's traditional main business is projected to achieve revenues of **650 million to 700 million** in 2025, with a corresponding market valuation of approximately **13 billion** [15] - The HVDC business is expected to generate significant incremental revenue, with a projected market space of **7 billion** if the company captures a **50%** market share [15] Additional Important Insights - The company’s governance and management structure improvements have already shown results in Q4 performance, indicating a strong operational turnaround [10] - Hezhong Electric's strategic partnerships, particularly with companies like Vidi China, enhance its competitive positioning and product development capabilities [11][14] - The overall market for power electronics in the solar and wind sectors is expected to see substantial growth, driven by increased recognition and support for these industries [10]

工程机械预计 3 月继续超预期，人形机器人灵巧手尤其值 得关注 20250316 摘要 • 工程机械内销增长强劲，压路机和摊铺机同比增长 40%，出口增长 20%-30%。 汽车起重机内销下滑 10%，但出口保持稳定。风电市场带动大吨位起重设 备需求，全地面起重设备表现优于汽车吊。混凝土机械 1-2 月显著增长， 三月内销预计增长 20%-30%。 • 半导体设备国产化加速，北方华创收购新源威股权，扩展产品线，增强竞 争力。华峰测控订单强劲，一季度订单与去年下半年持平，每月超 8,000 万元，同比增长显著，8,300 系列产品放量，8,600 系列 SOC 测试机验证取 得进展。 • 人形机器人行业快速发展，链主厂商发布新产品，积极推进量产计划，供 应链降本并获得订单。行业需求呈倍数级增长，量产成为投资核心主线， 各主体企业的新产品进展为该板块行情提供了坚实支撑。 • 智源公司发布通用大模型 G-One 和零星 X2 机器人。G-One 采用 VILLA 架构， 通过人类视频学习，提高学习效率。零星 X2 采用模块化设计，结合深度强 化学习和模仿学习算法，具备毫秒级交互反应速度，适用于智慧农业等场 景。 • ...