实物与投资需求为金价提供坚实支撑：央行购金对价格弹性降低，ETF2025年底创流入纪录(打破季节 性疲软)，总持有量仍低于2020年峰值，"全球黄金配置仍有提升空间，4000-5000美元区间合理"。Doshi 最后强调，盘整期不会损害牛市，"数月横盘反而能让投资者重新入场，尤其此前逢低买入策略屡试不 爽"。 【要闻速递】 在金价持续"狂飙"的背景下，道富投资管理公司黄金策略主管Aakash Doshi指出，短期波动难改整体上 涨趋势，2026年金价突破5000美元的概率已升至30%-40%。他强调，即便出现数日获利回吐或月度盘 整，真正的上涨趋势不会改变，"未来6-9个月达到5000美元的概率超30%，接近40%"。 当前黄金与美股同处历史高位，Doshi认为这反而强化了黄金的对冲价值："若标普500跌而黄金仅4500 美元，我会更担忧;如今两者均处高位，我更有信心持有黄金。"他指出，黄金的韧性反映市场正重新定 价尾部风险(如地缘冲突、政策不确定性)，而非传统利率逻辑;股票与债券相关性不稳，财政赤字攀升、 债务新高(2025年达历史峰值)等结构性因素持续支撑金价。 关于美联储政策，Doshi认为降息影响已退 ...

Market Review - The main palm oil futures contract closed at 8,648 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.35% [1] Fundamental Summary - The U.S. forecast for Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is 19.7 million tons, higher than previous estimates and last year's 19.38 million tons [2] - A Reuters survey predicts that the average palm oil price in 2026 will be 4,125 MYR/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 2.55% [2] - Malaysia's palm oil production for 2026 is expected to be 19.75 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 2.61% [2] - Indonesia's palm oil production for 2026 is projected to reach a record 51.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.39% [2] - As of January 16, 2026, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions of the country is 746,100 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons from the previous week, up 1.37% [2] - Year-on-year, the inventory has increased by 264,300 tons, a rise of 54.86% from last year's 481,800 tons [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhengxin Futures notes that the decline in Malaysia's palm oil production and increased exports improve supply-demand dynamics, while Indonesia's adjustment of export tax policies boosts demand [4] - The expectation of favorable U.S. biodiesel policies enhances market confidence, with short-term palm oil prices expected to fluctuate slightly stronger amid high inventory and improved supply-demand conditions [4] - Chaos Tiancheng Futures highlights that the U.S. biodiesel policy is gaining traction, which is bullish; however, the MPOB report indicates a slightly higher-than-expected inventory accumulation [4] - January's high-frequency data shows a decline in production and an increase in exports, reducing bearish sentiment for Malaysia [4] - Indonesia's B50 expectations have weakened, with the Energy Minister stating that the implementation of the B50 plan will depend on the price difference between crude oil and CPO [4] - The Indonesian president mentioned the potential confiscation of 4-5 million hectares of plantations this year, and a 2.5% increase in tariffs is expected [4] - The combination of reduced production and strong demand support a short-term bullish outlook, with attention on January's high-frequency data and biodiesel policy developments [4]

周二(1月20日)亚市盘中，现货黄金价格持续走涨，目前交投于4698.07美元/盎司附近，因避险情绪持续 升温，且美元指数延续跌势刷新逾一周低点，现货黄金午后持续走高，在EMA50上方的动态支撑持续 下，强化了主看涨趋势的稳定和短期主导地位，仍有上涨空间。 若这种信心的逐渐侵蚀在未来数个交易日内得到巩固，市场可能转向更具风险规避倾向的环境，从而推 高对避险资产的需求。在此情境下，黄金作为资本保值工具的重要性将凸显，短期内或持续维持买盘压 力。 过去数月，黄金始终维持着稳健的看涨结构，表现为高点与低点不断上移，屡次持续推动价格创下历史 新高。目前尚未出现明确的技术信号预示趋势反转，但价格接近关键心理关口(4700美元)时，可能在涨 势重启前进入盘整阶段或技术性回调。 金价昨日高开高走收涨，稳于短期均线上方，但目前触及趋势线压力附近，有遇阻回调的风险，不过， 鉴于看涨前景良好，如有回撤，下方5/10日均线等支撑，仍是触及看涨的支撑位置。并等待趋势线压力 的突破。 只要现货黄金价格维持在每盎司4650美元的关键支撑位上方，其后续上行目标区间仍指向每盎司4718美 元至4749美元。通道技术与波浪投影分析共同指向这一 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the alumina futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract reported at 2677.0 yuan/ton, reflecting a decline of 2.69% [1] - In December 2025, China's alumina imports totaled 227,760 tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 1.99% but a significant year-on-year increase of 1390%. The total imports for 2025 are expected to decline by 15.63% compared to 2024 [2] - The export volume of alumina in December 2025 reached 205,860 tons, marking a month-on-month increase of 22.56% and a year-on-year increase of 9.32%. The total exports for 2025 are projected to grow by 42.75% compared to 2024 [2] Group 2 - According to Yide Futures, the logic for alumina production cuts is weak, and the oversupply situation is unlikely to change soon. The negative basis is attributed to different leading logic between near and far-month contracts, with a significant increase in registered warehouse receipts [4] - Guoxin Guozheng Futures notes that domestic alumina enterprises have not significantly reduced production, maintaining high operational capacity and continuous high output, leading to persistent supply pressure. The demand side is weak due to the off-season, with aluminum plants facing inventory accumulation and reduced delivery efficiency [4] - The current market conditions show increased selling pressure from holders as inventory rises, while downstream demand remains limited to essential purchases, resulting in overall poor transaction performance and pressure on alumina prices [4]

Group 1 - Gold futures are currently trading around 1050.86 CNY per gram, with a 1.10% increase, reaching a high of 1053.74 CNY and a low of 1047.80 CNY during the session [1] - The short-term outlook for gold futures indicates a sideways movement [1] Group 2 - Germany and France have differing approaches to addressing the threat of tariffs from the Trump administration, rooted in their economic structures and relations with the U.S. [2] - Germany, heavily reliant on the U.S. market, prefers diplomatic dialogue to mitigate potential losses in key industries like automotive and machinery [2] - France focuses on maintaining European sovereignty and strategic independence, advocating for a strong counter-response to Trump's policies, which may escalate trade tensions [2] - The cautious stance of Germany reflects its role as a buffer in U.S.-EU relations, potentially leading to internal disagreements within the EU [2] Group 3 - The Shanghai gold futures market shows a strong upward trend since September 2025, with prices rising from a low of 760 to around 1020 [3] - Recent trading patterns indicate active capital inflow and strong buying support, with key price levels identified at 1000 for support and 1030 for resistance [3] - The market is characterized by a bullish arrangement in moving averages, with MACD indicators showing a bullish crossover, although momentum appears to be weakening [3] Group 4 - Resistance levels for gold are identified between 1045 and 1050, while support levels are noted between 1040 and 1042 [4]

Group 1 - The coal futures market in China is experiencing a downward trend, with coking coal futures showing weak performance and a decline of approximately 2.29% [1] - The main coking coal futures contract opened at 1175.0 yuan/ton, fluctuating between a high of 1176.0 yuan and a low of 1142.0 yuan during the trading session [1] Group 2 - Financial institutions indicate that domestic coal mine operations have returned to normal, leading to an increase in coking coal production and a rise in the enthusiasm of independent washing plants [2] - Demand for coking coal is recovering due to winter storage replenishment needs from coking steel enterprises, but the coking coal 2605 contract has broken below the 10-day moving average support, suggesting a short-term oscillating trend [2] - The market is advised to monitor production and safety inspections at coal mines, as well as the procurement pace and iron water production changes from downstream [2] - In the context of weak terminal demand and increased maintenance at steel mills, both iron water production and operating rates have declined, leading to a buildup of coking coal inventory at steel mills, which suppresses raw material demand [2] - Despite expectations for winter storage replenishment before the Spring Festival, the overall supply-demand imbalance remains prominent, with coking coal prices expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend [2]

2026年1月12日，承德金融监管分局发布批复称，《阳光人寿保险股份有限公司河北分公司关于阳光人 寿保险股份有限公司宽城支公司变更营业场所的请示》(冀阳光人寿〔2025〕178号)收悉。经审核，现 批复如下： 二、阳光人寿保险股份有限公司应按照有关规定及时办理变更及许可证换领事宜。 一、同意阳光人寿保险股份有限公司宽城支公司将营业场所变更为：河北省承德市宽城满族自治县宽城 镇民族街富元商业楼2-02号商铺二层。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Financial Supervision Administration of Zaozhuang has approved the change of business location for China People's Property Insurance Company Zaozhuang Branch's marketing service department [1] Group 1 - The business location of China People's Property Insurance Company Zaozhuang Branch's marketing service department has been changed to: Room 604, Building 6, Rundong Industrial Park, No. 2966, Fuyuan Third Road, High-tech Zone, Zaozhuang City, Shandong Province [1] - The company is required to handle the change and obtain the new license in accordance with relevant regulations [1]

2026年1月16日，国家金融监督管理总局临沂监管分局发布批复称，《关于中国太平洋财产保险股份有 限公司平邑支公司营业场所变更的请示》(鲁太保产〔2025〕120号)收悉，经审核，现批复如下： 二、中国太平洋财产保险股份有限公司应按照有关规定及时办理变更及许可证换领事宜。 一、同意中国太平洋财产保险股份有限公司平邑支公司将营业场所变更为：山东省临沂市平邑县城中礼 园东区B沿街03号房屋二、三楼。 ...

二、亚太财产保险有限公司应按照有关规定及时办理变更及许可证换领事宜。 2026年1月16日，国家金融监督管理总局滨州监管分局发布批复称，《关于亚太财产保险有限公司滨州 中心支公司营业场所变更的请示》(亚太财险鲁报〔2025〕61号)材料收悉。经审核，现批复如下： 一、同意亚太财产保险有限公司滨州中心支公司将营业场所变更为：山东省滨州市滨城区府前街阳光大 厦B座5楼。 ...