Group 1 - The U.S. government plans to meet with oil executives to discuss revitalizing Venezuela's struggling oil industry, which has seen production drop from over 3 million barrels per day to less than 1 million due to aging infrastructure and lack of investment [1] - Chevron is currently the only major oil company operating in Venezuela, while ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips previously dominated the market before nationalization under former President Chavez [1] - The meeting aims to explore how new equipment and technology can quickly boost oil production in Venezuela, highlighting the geopolitical risks in the market [1] Group 2 - Silver TD prices have shown a bullish trend, with a 6% increase yesterday and an additional 3% rise today, indicating strong market activity [1] - The MACD indicator suggests that bullish momentum is dominant, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered the overbought zone, signaling high market activity [1] - Key support levels for Silver TD are identified between 18,500 and 19,000, with resistance levels noted between 20,000 and 25,000 [1]

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of January 6, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9150 (+200) RMB/ton; CIF China price is 975 (+0) USD/ton; the market price of styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11750 (+100) RMB/ton, with a price difference of -3300 (-100) RMB/ton for styrene-butadiene rubber - Thai mix, and a basis difference of -80 (-85) RMB/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In December, China's butadiene production was 500,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.8%; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 144,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10.4%; semi-steel tire production was 58.39 million units, a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 3.3%; full-steel tire production was 12.86 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 1.2% and a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [2] - As of January 2, the operating rates in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry showed differentiation, with butadiene industry operating rate at 71.2%, a month-on-month increase of 0.8%; high cis-styrene-butadiene rubber industry operating rate at 77.2%, a month-on-month increase of 0.3%; semi-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate at 66.5%, a month-on-month decrease of 5.4%; full-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate at 57.9%, a month-on-month decrease of 6.1% [2] Inventory Levels - As of January 2, butadiene port inventory was 44,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1,400 tons; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory was 26,300 tons, a decrease of 2,550 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.8%; trader inventory was 7,180 tons, an increase of 1,490 tons, a month-on-month increase of 26.2% [3] Industry News - According to Longzhong Information on January 6, a 50,000 tons/year unit at Maoming Petrochemical was shut down for maintenance on January 5, expected to restart at the end of January; another 100,000 tons/year unit is currently under maintenance, expected to restart around January 21 [4] Market Analysis - On January 6, following the New Year holiday, the rubber sector showed a strong performance, with the main contract for synthetic rubber BR2602 closing at 11,830 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.2% compared to the previous day's settlement price. From the cost side, three domestic butadiene units are expected to restart in the second half of January, with expectations of reduced net imports due to increased exports and decreased imports, but overall supply remains ample, and port inventory is expected to remain high. On the supply side, Maoming Petrochemical's styrene-butadiene rubber units will gradually restart, and the profit margins for styrene-butadiene rubber are favorable, with other units operating at high levels. On the demand side, tire and other rubber product industries are expected to have stable operating rates, although there may be some stocking demand before the Spring Festival, a concentrated shutdown may occur from late January to February. Overall, cost support is limited, and supply-demand dynamics are weakening, providing limited fundamental support for BR price increases, with attention needed on macroeconomic disturbances [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that LME copper futures prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a recent increase of 1.32% [1] - On January 6, LME copper futures opened at $13,054 per ton, reached a high of $13,387.5, and closed at $13,254.5, reflecting a change of 1.28% [2] - The current trading price of copper is reported at $13,163.5 per ton, with a daily high of $13,285 and a low of $13,068 [1] Group 2 - The electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London is reported at 7.88, indicating an import loss of 813.35 yuan per ton, which improved from a previous loss of 1,356.7 yuan per ton [2] - As of January 6, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported copper futures warehouse receipts at 93,271 tons, an increase of 2,989 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - LME registered copper warehouse receipts totaled 114,200 tons, with canceled receipts at 31,875 tons, a decrease of 775 tons, while total copper inventory increased by 3,525 tons to 146,075 tons [2]

【逻辑】供应方面，海外主产区天气存改善预期，供应增量施压原料价格，但工厂补库需求支撑，泰国 原料价格持续上涨，橡胶成本支撑走强。需求方面，节后下游补货较为谨慎，泰混现货采购情绪较弱， 天胶青岛库存呈现大幅累库。综上，近期市场情绪偏强，带动胶价上行，后续关注泰国原料情况。 【操作建议】观望 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 【原料及现货】截至1月6日，杯胶52.22（+0.57）泰铢/千克，胶乳55.00（+0.30）泰铢/千克，海南民营 胶水15000（0）元/吨，青岛保税区泰标1915（+25）美元/吨，泰混15050（+200）元/吨。 【轮胎开工率及库存】截止到1月1日，中国半钢胎样本企业产能利用率为66.53%，环比-3.83个百分 点，同比-11.05个百分点。部分企业"元旦" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that LME aluminum futures prices are experiencing a continuous increase, with a current price of $3127 per ton, reflecting a rise of 1.34% [1] - On January 6, LME aluminum futures opened at $3080.5, reached a high of $3138.0, and closed at $3133.5, marking a 1.41% increase [2] - The inventory data shows that LME registered aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 446,475 tons, with canceled receipts decreasing by 1,500 tons, and total aluminum inventory down by 2,500 tons to 504,250 tons [2] Group 2 - On January 6, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts of 84,204 tons, an increase of 1,408 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.72, with an import loss of -1,707.66 yuan per ton, improving from the previous day's loss of -1,931.04 yuan per ton [2]

【最新黄金期货行情解析】 沪金期货主力合约AU2606于2026年1月7日收报982.30元/克，日跌0.88%，自1月5日高点1013.52元/克回 落，形成高位阴线形态，显示短期获利盘兑现压力。技术指标方面，价格逼近布林带中轨，RSI由超买 区（70以上）回落至60附近，MACD柱状体转绿、动能减弱，短期趋势由多转震荡。关键位置上，1000 元/克为强阻力区（对应国际金价4400美元），下方支撑位于960–970元/克（对应4300美元）。市场情 绪上，期现升水持续（期货较现货t+d高约3元/克），持仓量稳定于4.69万手，未现大规模平仓，多头底 仓仍存。 受大西洋和北极高压系统共同作用的强北风影响，欧洲北部和中部地区在周一至周二凌晨气温骤降，多 地刷新低温纪录。英国气象局数据显示，英格兰东南部马厄姆最低气温降至-12.5℃，法国东部穆特和 德国巴伐利亚奥伯斯多夫均录得-22℃的严寒。法国气象局称，此次寒潮为2012年以来该国最强低温， 大幅推升全欧供暖需求——周一法国电力需求创五年新高，电力系统被迫增加燃气发电保障供应。目前 法国西北部仍有26个省份维持雨雪冰冻橙色预警，滨海夏朗德省积雪达30厘米，气象 ...

与美联储的政策摇摆不同，瑞士央行则坚守政策稳定性。继2025年连续两次维持关键政策利率在0%不 变后，路透社调查显示，绝大多数经济学家预计瑞士央行在2026全年仍将维持利率在零水平。尽管瑞士 2025年11月CPI同比降至0%的政策目标下限，央行还将2026年通胀预期从0.5%下调至0.3%，但明确表 态回归负利率的门槛极高，因负利率存在"不良副作用"。值得注意的是，瑞士央行在2025年三季度曾买 入7500万瑞士法郎外汇以减缓瑞郎升值节奏，但干预力度有限，未改变瑞郎的强势格局。 经济基本面与贸易环境的变化，进一步强化了美瑞汇率的分化格局。瑞士经济展现出较强韧性，2025年 三季度GDP虽受制药行业拖累收缩，但制造业和服务业增长形成有效对冲，央行预计全年增速略低于 1.5%。更关键的是，2025年11月美瑞贸易协议生效，美国对瑞士商品关税从39%大幅降至15%，显著缓 解出口压力，为瑞郎提供基本面支撑。同时，瑞士2025年12月KOF经济领先指标升至103.4，创下自 2024年9月以来的最高水平，预示经济前景向好。而美元端则承压明显，2025年美元指数累计下跌约 9%，2026年1月6日亚洲交易时段，美元指 ...

2026年开年以来，澳元兑美元延续2025年的强势格局，呈现震荡偏强态势。截至1月7日10时35分，该货 币对报0.6749，较前一交易日上涨0.0012，涨幅达0.1930%，日内最高触及0.6752，最低下探0.6714，展 现出较强韧性。回顾2025年，澳元兑美元上演惊艳V型反转，从4月的五年低点0.5922美元一路反弹，年 末突破0.67关键关口创下14个月新高，全年累计涨幅超7%，跻身全球主要货币表现前列。 本轮澳元走强的核心驱动力源于澳美两国货币政策的显著分化。澳大利亚联储(澳联储)全年释放明确鹰 派信号，连续维持基准利率于3.6%不变，12月会议纪要强调通胀风险偏向上行，宣告降息周期彻底终 结，行长Bullock更明确表态"完全没有考虑过降息"，甚至讨论2026年加息可能性。当前市场对澳联储 政策定价持续调整，2月加息概率升至32%，3月逼近50%，澳新银行等机构预测基准利率或上调至 3.85%。与之形成鲜明对比的是，美联储在2025年累计降息75个基点，当前政策利率维持在3.5%-3.75% 区间，尽管部分官员释放偏鹰信号，但市场仍预期2026年可能继续降息两次，这种政策分歧直接推动澳 美利差 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is strengthening against the US dollar (USD), driven by diverging monetary policies between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The RBA maintained its interest rate at 3.60% in December, signaling the end of its rate-cutting cycle, while the Fed has lowered rates three times to a range of 3.5%-3.75% in 2025 [1] - Market expectations suggest that the RBA may raise rates nearly twice in 2026, while the Fed is anticipated to lower rates only twice [1] - The divergence in monetary policy is expected to support the AUD as capital flows towards AUD-denominated assets [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - The RBA has raised its inflation forecast, predicting a CPI of 3.7% by June 2026, with the governor indicating no further easing, which sends a hawkish signal [1] - The Australian government has revised its GDP growth forecast upward, indicating improvements in non-mining investment and marginally better fiscal conditions [1] - However, the AUD remains vulnerable to fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly iron ore, which is a key export [1] Group 3: Short-term Volatility and Predictions - Short-term volatility in the AUD is expected due to Australian inflation data and US non-farm payroll reports, with potential for significant fluctuations [2] - Institutions are optimistic about the AUD, with forecasts suggesting it could rise to 0.75 by year-end according to the National Australia Bank, and to 0.70 according to Westpac [2] - Key resistance and support levels for the AUD are identified at 0.6750 and 0.6710, respectively, with long-term trends dependent on the RBA's rate hike pace and commodity prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The euro to dollar exchange rate is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a slight decline, as market attention shifts to inflation data and central bank policy signals from both Europe and the U.S. [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The euro to dollar exchange rate opened and fluctuated within a narrow range, with a high followed by a retreat, indicating limited overall volatility [1] - The U.S. dollar index showed a slight rebound, exerting pressure on the euro exchange rate [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Multiple factors are contributing to the pressure on the exchange rate, including rising U.S. 10-year Treasury yields and increased expectations for investment-grade bond issuance, which strengthen the dollar index [1] - The economic fundamentals in the eurozone are weak, with a downward revision of the December manufacturing PMI and ongoing contraction in core manufacturing activities, raising concerns about growth momentum in the eurozone [1] - Divergence in policy expectations between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve is affecting the exchange rate, with the market awaiting clearer signals on the Fed's interest rate cut path and closely monitoring the eurozone inflation report [1] Group 3: Short-term Outlook - In the short term, the euro to dollar exchange rate is likely to continue its range-bound oscillation, with technical indicators showing a cooling trend in momentum [1] - A breakthrough in the exchange rate direction will depend on key data guidance, with potential support for the euro if eurozone inflation data exceeds expectations, while strong U.S. non-farm payrolls could further boost the dollar [1] Group 4: Long-term Perspective - From a medium to long-term perspective, the growth rate differential between the U.S. and eurozone economies will be a core factor influencing exchange rate movements [2] - Additionally, the adjustment pace of interest rate policies by the ECB and the Fed, the recovery process of eurozone manufacturing, and changes in geopolitical situations will be important variables driving exchange rate fluctuations [2]