白银价格的大幅震荡，凸显出其背后的"挤仓"风险正在发酵，市场波动性显着放大。 目前伦敦与美国白银市场的挤仓风险依然处于高位。其核心矛盾在于，未平仓合约所对应的索取权规模 高达约5.9亿盎司，而可用于实物交割的库存不足5000万盎司，覆盖率仅约7%。 今日周四(1月15日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于88.12一线下方，今日开盘于93.57美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报87.28美元/盎司，下跌6.33%，最高触及93.57美元/盎司，最低下探86.37美元/盎司，目 前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 此外，由于银价涨势持续超过黄金，金银比跌破50大关，为2012年3月以来首次。该比值的长期均值在 60左右，历史经验表明，金银比跌破50尤其是跌至40及下方，势必会引起重视，通常意味着要么黄金上 涨补上来，要么白银被拉下来。 伦敦银价格在早盘中交易中下跌，此前92.35美元阻力位的稳定，以收回之前上涨的收益，试图获得可 能帮助其恢复和回升的多头动能，试图获得可能助其恢复和再次上涨的多头动能，试图将超买状态抛售 到相对强弱指标上，同时其在EMA50上方交易所代表的动态支撑持续存在，强化了价格反弹 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is mostly in the red, with Shanghai tin futures showing a strong performance, reaching a high of 443,380.00 CNY/ton and a low of 420,000.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a price increase of approximately 6.88% [1] - The current trend for Shanghai tin is characterized by a volatile upward movement, with market sentiment driven by emotional trading rather than fundamental changes [2] - Concerns over supply disruptions from the mining sector, combined with increased demand driven by the AI wave, have contributed to the recent price surge in tin [2] Group 2 - The high tin prices are suppressing purchasing intentions among downstream enterprises, leading to a cautious approach where most companies are opting to wait and see rather than engage in significant procurement [2] - The slow recovery of tin production in Myanmar has not significantly improved the tight supply situation, maintaining high speculative interest in the market [2] - The market has experienced a significant price increase of 35.19% within the month, raising concerns about potential price corrections due to accumulated risks [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the upward trend in nickel prices due to geopolitical tensions and supply constraints, with the main contract for nickel futures reported at 144,410.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.42% increase [1] Group 2 - On the macro level, the article notes a significant trend of de-globalization and frequent geopolitical conflicts, leading to a general increase in "strategic reserve" metals [1] Group 3 - In terms of industry specifics, Indonesia has drastically reduced its nickel ore production target for 2026 by approximately 34%, and 50 nickel mines are facing potential fines for illegal land use [1] Group 4 - Regarding demand, the announcement from two departments to gradually lower and eliminate the VAT refund for battery product exports is expected to positively impact nickel demand in the new energy sector [1] Group 5 - Looking ahead, the article indicates that strong policy expectations from Indonesia are driving prices upward, with a projected quota of 260 million tons for 2026 against an estimated demand of over 320 million tons, suggesting a strong expectation of overall nickel supply shortage [1]

从昨日走势看：目前上方压制在4639-41一线，其次是4627-32一线；最后是4617-18附近。 避险黄金价格也走弱，部分反映出地缘政治担忧的缓解。美国总统唐纳德.特朗普表示，有报导称与伊 朗镇压相关的杀戮正在减弱，并且没有计划进行大规模处决，尽管他并未排除潜在的美国军事行动，并 指出华盛顿将继续监测事态发展，路透社报导。 对包括黄金在内的贵金属的避险需求可能会在对美联储独立性的新担忧中进一步上升。美联储主席杰罗 姆.鲍威尔批评特朗普政府对他的传票决定，称这相当于对美联储施加压力以实施更宽松的货币政策。 特朗普在周三表示，尽管司法部对美联储主席的刑事调查，他没有计划解雇鲍威尔，但"现在说他最终 会做什么还为时尚早。" 从技术面来看，昨日开盘价格从4589附近开始一路上行至4639.5一线回落4618附近，之后价格再度上涨 至4640附近维持在4627-4640区间来回震荡；美盘价格快速下跌至4599一线后反弹4624附近进行二次下 探4601附近反弹二次冲高4642一线；之后价格再度4618附近并收盘于4626一线。 周四(1月15日)亚市盘中，现货黄金价格震荡下跌，目前交投于4589.63美元/盎司附近 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the lithium carbonate market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices fluctuating and showing weakness in performance [1][2] - The main contract for lithium carbonate futures opened at 163,840.0 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 165,000.0 yuan and a minimum of 156,180.0 yuan, reflecting a decline of 4.16% [1] - Market sentiment has diverged recently, influenced by policy benefits and expectations for energy storage demand, but profit-taking and weak fundamentals have led to a market adjustment phase [2] Group 2 - Demand for energy storage batteries has increased by 0.99% month-on-month, but there is a notable decline in the production of power batteries as the market enters a low season [2] - Inventory pressure is becoming evident, with an expected accumulation of over 5,000 tons in January [2] - Despite short-term supply and demand weakening, medium-term support is anticipated from policy tightening, high growth in energy storage demand, and increased processing fees [2] Group 3 - The current high volatility of lithium carbonate futures indicates significant market trading risks, and the sustainability of continued price increases remains uncertain [3] - There is a strong demand for spot purchases of lithium carbonate ahead of the Spring Festival, suggesting that the industry may exhibit "not dull in the off-season" characteristics [3] - Investors are advised to gradually realize profits in the short term and wait for market risks to be fully released before considering low-price entry opportunities [3]

摘要今日周四(1月15日)亚市时段，伦敦金震荡下行，一度下跌0.92%至4583美元/盎司，但仍有逢低买 盘提供支撑，目前回升至4610美元附近，日内跌幅约0.3%。美国总统唐纳德.特朗普断言，阻碍潜在和 平协议达成的主要是乌克兰，而非俄罗斯。与欧洲盟友的立场截然不同，特朗普暗示莫斯科已准备好结 束冲突，而基辅方面却仍持犹豫态度。短期看，特朗普立场变动降低了冲突升级风险，对黄金构成利 空。 今日周四(1月15日)亚市时段，伦敦金震荡下行，一度下跌0.92%至4583美元/盎司，但仍有逢低买盘提 供支撑，目前回升至4610美元附近，日内跌幅约0.3%。美国总统唐纳德.特朗普断言，阻碍潜在和平协 议达成的主要是乌克兰，而非俄罗斯。与欧洲盟友的立场截然不同，特朗普暗示莫斯科已准备好结束冲 突，而基辅方面却仍持犹豫态度。短期看，特朗普立场变动降低了冲突升级风险，对黄金构成利空。 【要闻速递】 周三，美国总统特朗普表示，俄罗斯总统普京已准备好结束持续近四年的俄乌冲突，并指责乌克兰总统 泽连斯基在达成协议上犹豫不决。特朗普称"普京已准备好达成协议"，而"乌克兰不太准备好"，当被问 及谈判停滞原因时，他仅以"泽连斯基"回应 ...

受影响国家覆盖非洲、中东和拉美等地区，包括俄罗斯、泰国、摩洛哥、哥伦比亚、巴西等。此次禁令 标志着特朗普入境限制政策重大升级——截至1月1日，已有39国被实施全面或部分限制。消息传出后， 华盛顿多个外国使馆因未提前获知，正紧急确认本国是否在列及具体影响。 新规下，国务院官员审核签证时需严格判定申请人是否可能成为"公共负担"(即依赖福利或公共援助)。 尽管现行规定已禁止大多数新移民在获得永居权后五年内使用医疗补助、补充营养援助计划等联邦福利 (少数例外)，且州资助项目不受限，政府仍决定强化审查标准。 摘要今日周四(1月15日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1027.86元/克，较前一交易日下跌8.84元，跌幅 0.85%，日内呈现高开低走走势。当日开盘价报1036.49元/克，盘中最高触及1037.88元/克，最低下探至 1026.50元/克。黄金市场已从边缘资产转为主流配置，波动性显著提升;机构持有实物支持的黄金ETF比 例达历史高位65%，若通胀受控、市场情绪逆转，或出现远超以往的大幅回调。 今日周四(1月15日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1027.86元/克，较前一交易日下跌8.84元，跌幅 0.85%， ...

随着金价走高，多家基金调整申赎规则：易方达1月16日起暂停申购，19日恢复，最小申赎单位从30万 份降至10万份，实物申赎仅保留流动性更优的Au99.99合约;华安、博时等此前已调整。业内称，此举提 升公平性、灵活性，降低参与门槛。 摘要今日周四(1月15日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价为1027.57元/克，较前一交易日下跌9.38元，跌幅 0.90%，日内呈现高开低走走势。当日开盘价报1036.45元/克，盘中最高触及1037.83元/克，最低下探至 1026.46元/克。 今日周四(1月15日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价为1027.57元/克，较前一交易日下跌9.38元，跌幅 0.90%，日内呈现高开低走走势。当日开盘价报1036.45元/克，盘中最高触及1037.83元/克，最低下探至 1026.46元/克。 【要闻速递】 伴随金价迭创新高，黄金ETF迎来资金热捧，规模迅速扩张。数据显示，截至1月14日，黄金ETF近一 年净流入约430亿元，流通规模突破千亿元，成为国内首只千亿黄金ETF;博时、易方达、国泰等黄金 ETF规模分别达439.76亿、387.10亿、325.84亿元，全市场14只产品总规模达 ...

Group 1 - The domestic soda ash futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 1228.00 CNY/ton and showing a decline of approximately 2.30% [1][2] - Market sentiment has weakened, leading to a downward adjustment in futures prices, while the overall operation of production facilities remains stable with minor fluctuations [2] - Downstream demand is generally weak, with procurement primarily based on immediate needs, contributing to the overall subdued market atmosphere [2] Group 2 - The supply side of the soda ash market remains stable, with some production facilities slightly increasing their load, but the overall industry operating rate has seen a slight recovery [2] - The demand for soda ash from photovoltaic glass and float glass sectors is declining, leading to reduced consumption of heavy soda ash and a cautious purchasing attitude from downstream users [2] - Despite a slight increase in heavy soda ash prices driven by futures market movements, the overall market lacks substantial positive support, maintaining a weak trend [2]

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract dropping by 2.17% to 1173.5 CNY/ton as of January 15 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 15, the main coking coal futures contract has decreased significantly, indicating a weak market performance [1] - The average daily production of raw coal reached 1.978 million tons, an increase of 79,000 tons compared to the previous period, while the average daily production of coking coal was 769,000 tons, up by 3.4% [2] - The total inventory of raw coal rose to 5.499 million tons, increasing by 765,000 tons, while the inventory of coking coal decreased to 2.724 million tons, down by 226,000 tons [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is at 88.5%, reflecting a 3.1% increase week-on-week, indicating a recovery in production [2] - Downstream enterprises are showing increased enthusiasm for purchasing and stockpiling, with market confidence recovering and overall procurement willingness improving [4] - Domestic coal mines have ended their year-end production cuts, with production gradually resuming, leading to a marginal increase in coal output [4] Group 3: Export and Auction Insights - According to data from the Gladstone Port Company, coal exports are projected to reach 6.5701 million tons by December 2025, marking an 11.39% increase month-on-month and a 14.8% increase year-on-year [2] - The Mongolian ER Company held an online auction for coking coal, with all 12,800 tons sold at a price of 900 CNY/ton, which is 15 CNY lower than the previous day [2]