汇价上行同时，日本经济面临多重制约，日元弱势虽短期利好出口，但难以扭转出口制造业的承压态 势。2025年以来日本出口同比增速波动下行，2026年全球贸易格局分化将进一步加剧外部需求不确定 性；同时日本政府杠杆率已达211%，财政刺激计划推动赤字率升至3.1%，债务风险隐忧凸显，长期制 约日元走势。此外，日本劳动力短缺问题持续，难以支撑经济强劲复苏，间接影响日元估值。 截至2026年2月4日，美元兑日元报156.06，微涨0.2119%，日内震荡于155.67-156.14区间，今开与昨收 均为155.71。近期汇价持续震荡上行，受益于美日央行政策分化及美国经济韧性支撑，逐步逼近前期高 位区间，多头动能稳步释放。 美元兑日元走强核心源于美日货币政策分化的持续发酵。日本央行正逐步推进货币正常化，缓慢退出负 利率，但节奏审慎，2026年预计CPI回落至1.8%、核心CPI降至1.9%，通胀韧性减弱制约紧缩力度，叠 加日本推出超13.9万亿日元财政刺激计划托底经济，宽松基调未完全转变，对日元支撑有限。反观美 国，AI投资驱动经济保持韧性，2026年上半年美联储宽松见顶、下半年或转向审慎，政策收敛预期强 于日本央行，利 ...

央行政策分化成为影响澳元兑美元走势的关键因素。澳央行明确表态通胀动力仍较强劲，预计通胀将长 期高于目标区间中点，不排除后续进一步加息的可能，政策紧缩预期持续支撑澳元。反观美联储，2025 年12月已完成降息，且结束缩表并启动国库券购买，2026年政策宽松预期未消，与澳央行的紧缩立场形 成鲜明对比，利差优势逐步向澳元倾斜，持续增强澳元吸引力。 截至2026年2月4日，澳元兑美元报0.7031，微涨0.1282%，日内震荡于0.7011-0.7036区间，今开与昨收 均为0.7021。近期澳元表现强势，2月2日澳央行加息落地后，澳元兑美元单日上涨1.15%，截至2月3日 涨幅扩大至1.08%，成功站稳0.70关口上方，延续阶段性反弹态势。 澳元走强核心驱动力来自澳央行加息及美元弱势共振。2月2日，澳央行宣布将现金利率上调25个基点至 3.85%，成为2026年首个采取紧缩政策的主要发达经济体央行，此次加息主要源于通胀压力回升—— 2025年12月澳大利亚CPI升至3.8%，超出市场预期，且私人需求增长强劲、劳动力市场紧张，支撑紧缩 政策落地。同时，美元指数持续走弱形成助攻，2月3日美元指数下跌0.22%报97.3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global currency market is experiencing stable trading with a lack of clear directional guidance, as various economic data and key events are set to be released, influencing market sentiment and currency valuations [1][5]. Economic Data and Events - Key economic data to be released includes the U.S. API and EIA crude oil inventory data, China's Caixin Services PMI, and various PMIs from France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK for January [1][8]. - The U.S. ADP employment figures and the final reading of the S&P Global Services PMI for January will also be closely monitored [1][8]. Currency Analysis - **U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)**: Currently in a weak consolidation phase, with resistance at 97.75-97.82 and support at 97.45 and 97.20 [2]. - **GBP/USD**: The pair is under pressure, with significant resistance at 1.3710 and support at 1.3650, indicating a bearish outlook [3]. - **EUR/USD**: The exchange rate is fluctuating around 1.18, with key support at 1.1780 and resistance at 1.1820-1.1850, lacking strong fundamental support [3]. - **USD/JPY**: The pair is trading within a range of 152-156, with resistance at 156.03 and support at 155.28-154.68, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [4]. Recent News Impact - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, as indicated by comments from officials, is expected to influence the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields significantly [5]. - The U.S.-India trade agreement, which includes reduced tariffs and increased purchases of U.S. goods, is likely to reshape trade dynamics and impact commodity prices [5]. - The recent rise in the ISM Manufacturing PMI to 52.6 suggests a return to expansion, which may bolster the dollar and U.S. equity markets [6]. - Developments in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations could affect oil prices and market sentiment towards risk assets [6]. - The postponement of key employment data due to government shutdowns may lead to increased volatility in the dollar and Treasury markets [6].

据欧盟委员会，截至2月1日，欧盟2025/26年软小麦出口量为1282万吨，而去年为1282万吨；欧盟 2025/26年大麦出口量为577万吨，而去年为284万吨。 中共中央、国务院发布关于锚定农业农村现代化扎实推进乡村全面振兴的意见。意见指出，加强农产品 市场监测预警和信息发布，统筹做好市场化收购和政策性收储，促进粮食等重要农产品价格保持在合理 水平。合理确定稻谷、小麦最低收购价，完善棉花目标价格政策。稳定实施耕地地力保护补贴、玉米大 豆生产者补贴和稻谷补贴政策。 美国农业部数据显示，截至2026年1月29日当周，美国小麦出口检验量为326828吨，前一周修正后为 378991吨，初值为351001吨。2025年1月30日当周，美国小麦出口检验量为253137吨。本作物年度迄 今，美国小麦出口检验量累计为16685581吨，上一年度同期14067849吨。美国小麦作物年度自6月1日开 始。 据外媒报道，周一，由于大宗商品市场大幅下挫，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）软红冬小麦期货收盘下 跌，基准期约收低2%。 市场资讯： ...

央行公告称，2月3日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1055亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%， 投标量1055亿元，中标量1055亿元。数据显示，当日4020亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净回笼2965 亿元。银行间市场资金面整体平稳，跨月后需求端压力暂时不大，DR001加权平均利率降约5bp至1.31% 附近。匿名点击（X-repo）系统上，隔夜报价在1.3%有逾千亿供给；非银机构质押信用债融入隔夜报价 则在1.5%附近。虽然暂时流动性压力尚好，不过考虑到本周后期地方债发行较为集中，还需警惕叠加 效应影响。 【消息面】 【市场表现】 国债期货收盘多数上涨，30年期主力合约跌0.10%报111.960元，10年期主力合约涨0.02%报108.260元， 5年期主力合约涨0.06%报105.905元，2年期主力合约涨0.03%报102.414元。银行间主要利率债收益率涨 跌不一。10年期国开债"25国开15"收益率上行0.30bp报1.9610%，10年期国债"25附息国债16"收益率下 行0.30bp报1.8120%，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率下行0.15bp报2.2500%。 【资金面 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent drop in gold prices is not the end of its troubles, as investor enthusiasm remains high despite the decline, indicating potential further downside for gold prices [1] - Last Friday, gold prices fell nearly 10% and silver prices dropped over 31%, yet there were no substantial changes in the fundamentals, with inflation expectations rising and policy uncertainty not significantly decreasing [1] - The HGNSI sentiment index remains high at 84.4%, suggesting market overcrowding, while the CME's margin increase has exacerbated leveraged liquidations, leading to liquidity shocks [1] Group 2 - Institutions view the recent price movements as a healthy correction or structural bull market fluctuation, but sentiment has not sufficiently cooled down [1] - Historical data indicates that an HGNSI below 10% is a reliable buy signal, suggesting that there may still be selling risks in the short term [1] - As of Tuesday, the spot gold price was reported at $4895.37 per ounce, reflecting a 5.06% increase [2]

市场动荡的导火索包括特朗普提名凯文.沃什为美联储下一任主席，以及芝商所上调交易保证金要求。 此外，由于美国政府部分停摆，原定于本周五发布的1月就业报告将被推迟。 今日周三(2月4日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于5053.05美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报5034.69美 元/盎司，涨幅1.74%，最高上探至5053.05美元/盎司，最低触及4908.40美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短 线偏向看涨走势。黄金周二强劲反弹超6%，创下自2008年11月以来的最大单日涨幅，主要受到坚挺基 本面支撑下的逢低买盘推动，同时，地缘紧张升温也推迟金价上涨 【要闻速递】 现货黄金上涨超6%，至每盎司4993.27美元，从周一的低点大幅回升。此轮反弹主要受到坚挺基本面支 撑下的逢低买盘推动。分析师普遍认为，近期回调属于长期上升趋势中的健康修正，推动黄金上涨的宏 观因素依然稳固。 Zaner Metals策略师Peter Grant指出，市场可能进入盘整阶段，关键支撑位在4400美元附近，上行阻力位 或为5100美元。尽管波动加剧，多数观点仍预期牛市将延续，金价有望在今年晚些时候再创新高。 摘要今日周三(2月4日)亚盘时段，伦敦金 ...

【最新现货黄金行情解析】 昨日黄金延续强势拉升，早盘开于4673.4美元后小幅回落至4663.7，随后进入震荡上行节奏，午盘起加 速攀升，日线最高触及4995.1美元，尾盘略有收敛，收于4946.3美元，以一根上影线较长的大阳线收 官，显示多头攻势强劲但上方存在一定压力。 形态上看，今日倾向回踩后延续上涨。目标依次看4900、4950及5000关口，突破则进一步看5035、5050 和5082。 【要闻速递】 此次上涨是对周一跌势的阶段性修复。此前，黄金在上周五单日跌幅接近10%，与白银同日暴跌30%(创 1980年来最差单日表现)共同引发"史诗级抛售"。随着周二金银持续走高，全球多地矿业股及贵金属ETF 同步跟涨。 欧洲市场方面，覆盖地区性矿业龙头的Stoxx600基础资源指数早盘涨超2%;伦敦上市的力拓(Rio Tinto)开 盘涨2.2%，英美资源集团(Anglo American)涨逾3%，安托法加斯塔(Antofagasta)涨2.5%。美国市场贵金 属ETF亦表现亮眼：ProShares Ultra Silver ETF开盘前一度涨15%，abrdn Physical Silver Shares ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index is trading around 97.363, while spot gold opened at $4944.54 per ounce and is currently trading at approximately $5048.82 per ounce [1] - The previous trading day saw the US dollar index rise by 0.06% to 97.445, and spot gold increased by 6.15% to $4945.74 per ounce [1] - Other precious metals also experienced price increases, with spot silver rising by 7.48% to $85.07 per ounce, platinum up by 4.18% to $2214.00 per ounce, and palladium increasing by 0.78% to $1741.50 per ounce [1] Group 2 - As of February 3, COMEX gold inventory increased by 4.05 tons to 1112.12 tons, while COMEX silver inventory rose by 57.24 tons to 12561.37 tons [2] - SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 3.72 tons to 1083.38 tons, and SLV silver ETF holdings fell by 108.89 tons to 16437.70 tons [2] - The payment direction for deferred compensation fees indicates that for gold (Au t+d), longs are paying shorts, while for silver (Ag t+d), shorts are paying longs [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to a rebound after a significant correction, with prices rising over 6% during the trading session, potentially marking the largest single-day increase since November 2008 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced a sharp decline, dropping to approximately $4,402, before rebounding to around $4,952 during the trading session [1]. - April gold futures rose by 6.93%, closing at $4,975 per ounce, with a notable increase of $322.4 in a single day [1]. - The recent downturn in precious metals is primarily driven by technical factors rather than a significant weakening of the fundamentals [3]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analysts maintain a bullish outlook for gold, suggesting that the market may enter a consolidation phase between support at $4,400 and resistance at $5,100 [3]. - Economic and political uncertainties are expected to support gold and silver prices, with expectations of a long-term bull market resuming [3]. - The low-interest-rate environment continues to favor gold, although a lack of new catalysts may lead to short-term consolidation [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The April gold futures chart indicates a bearish "key reversal" pattern, suggesting a potential market top [4]. - The next upward target for bulls is to break the strong resistance level at $5,250, while bears aim to push prices below the technical support level of $4,423.20 [4]. - Key resistance levels are identified at $4,977.70 and $5,000, while support levels are at $4,750 and the overnight low of $4,690.20 [4].