来源 | 投资实习所 本文为 Altimeter Capital 合伙人 Freda Duan 对 Prediction Market 的深度解读，原文发布于她的 Substack，本篇为直译 改写。 Altimeter Capital 是硅谷顶级科技投资基金，跨越 VC 与二级市场，曾精准押注软件和 AI 浪潮，重仓 OpenAI。2022 年 底，其股东信《Time to get fit》呼吁 Meta 裁员并全面转向 AI，引发硅谷轰动。 Freda Duan 现任 Altimeter 合伙人，公开资料显示她负责 Disruptive Tech 颠覆性科技领域，主攻 AI。 Prediction Market（预测市场）在 2024 年美国大选之后才进入公众视野。在硅谷，推特已被 Polymarket 与 Kalshi 刷 屏。Kalshi 单个周末的数据能让 Robinhood 和 DraftKings 的股价大幅波动。Polymarket 估值高达 $9B，或为史上最高 的"非 AI、零营收"独角兽，投资阵容包括 Trump Jr.、V 神和 Founders Fund。 正如 Freda 原文所说 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses various significant developments in the automotive and technology sectors, highlighting trends in electric vehicles, AI investments, and corporate strategies. Automotive Industry - Airbus A320 series has surpassed Boeing 737 in cumulative deliveries, marking a historic milestone in aviation [8] - Toyota is recalling nearly 400,000 vehicles in the U.S. due to a software error affecting the rearview camera display [10] - Lucid Motors reported production of 3,891 vehicles and deliveries of 4,078 in Q3 2025, with a total of 9,966 produced and 10,496 delivered year-to-date [11] - Aston Martin anticipates a mid-to-high single-digit percentage decline in total wholesale volume for FY2025, with a revised outlook on cash flow [11] - Xiaomi's 17 series sales exceeded expectations, with promotional offers extended until October 31 [10] Technology Sector - Tesla's market value dropped by over 650 million USD (approximately 4,630 million RMB) after a 4.46% decline in stock price, coinciding with the launch of a new Model Y priced at 39,990 USD [8] - AMD's partnership with OpenAI is expected to generate hundreds of billions in revenue, with a 6 GW computing power agreement for AI infrastructure [10] - High investment interest in AI, with 55.2% of venture capital funding directed towards the sector in 2023, indicating a significant shift in investment trends [15] - Microsoft acknowledged issues with its Copilot AI feature when multiple Office applications are open, highlighting operational challenges [10] Corporate Developments - Elon Musk appointed a former Morgan Stanley executive as CFO of xAI to manage financial operations and improve profitability [10] - Qualcomm announced the acquisition of Arduino to enhance its presence in the robotics market [11] - IKEA acquired Locus, a logistics technology company, to streamline product delivery and support online sales growth [11]

1.【AI产业投资热：今年已有55.2%创投资金流入领域，结构分化明显】 10月7日消息，美国专注于 私募和创投数据的PitchBook近日发布报告显示，截至今年第三季度，全球有22.3%的初创公司企业 进入了AI领域，这些企业吸引了全球总创投资金的55.2%，占全球初创公司总估值的43.5%。数据显 示，2024年第三季度，AI领域占当年创投资金的40.3%，而到2025年第三季度，这一比例已升至全 年创投资金的55.2%。相比之下，金融科技在2022年的投资高峰仅占总创投资金的17.1%，同年的 数字货币投资高峰也仅为6.9%，而自动驾驶领域的投资高峰出现在2017年第一季度，占当时创投资 金的15.1%。（新浪财经） 2.【马斯克任命前摩根士丹利高管为xAI首席财务官】 据报道，马斯克任命前摩根士丹利高管担仼 xAI首席财务官；他这位盟友将协助管理美国最大的AI新创公司之一。该报援引知情人士的话称报 道，Anthony Armstrong将负责xAI和社交媒体服务X的财务职能。报道指出，这位曾帮助马斯克完 成以440亿美元收购X的高管，将负责带领这家社群媒体平台恢复财务健康。马斯克的xAI上个月才筹 资 ...

只讲干货和硬逻辑 以下文章来源于犀牛娱乐 ，作者犀牛娱乐编辑部 犀牛娱乐 . 来源｜ 犀牛娱乐 作者｜ 南如珉 编辑｜朴芳 电影《731》中有一个醒目的字幕"这里，无人生还"。它恰好适用于今年的国庆档。 今年国庆档过于低迷，已经是远远超乎了想象，较往年的下滑将会非常惊人。其实从最初的预期来看，尽管国庆档打造了一个华丽的"片海战术"，但很明 显是华而不实的，完全是缺乏实战能力，对观众无法构成有效的吸引力，这无疑是国庆档全盘失利的重要原因。 国庆档为何全面失利 在类型、阵容、口碑都不算太差的情况下，国庆档的全面崩盘也就格外引人关注。不论是大盘，还是单片，国庆档几乎拿不出任何的亮点，甚至很快就被 上映两周的《731》占得先机。那么今年国庆档为何迎来了如此全面的失利？ ● 《志愿军3》 从系列的角度来看，最新的《志愿军3》达到了系列的平均水准，并未出现口碑突然崩塌所导致的票房下滑，甚至在泪点和情绪渲染上，这部《志愿军3》 达到了新的高度，但影片的问题也是非常突出，即审美疲劳。从《长津湖》两部曲，再到《志愿军3》三部曲，五部电影下来，观众实在有些顶不住了。 另一方面，前作《志愿军2》曾一度达到12亿+的体量，其中朱一龙 ...

作者丨赵晓晓 编辑丨关雎 图源丨 Pattern 两周前，在美国电商生态市场，刚刚诞生一个超级 IPO 。 成立于 2013 年，由一对夫妻 David Wright 和 Melanie Alder 创办的电商服务商 Pattern （中文翻译柏藤，以下简称 Pattern ）在美国纳斯达克上 市。 Pattern 在 IPO 中以 14 美元的价格发售，上市首日，股价收盘报 15.63 美元，涨幅超 11% ，市值 27.5 亿美元（人民币近 200 亿元）。 Pattern 从亚马逊一家卖冰箱贴的小店起步，后来逐步 研发 了为电商销售加速的 人工智能和机器学习技术。 目前其业务主要包括： 一是采购品牌产品， 直接在各大平台销售 ；二是代运营，为品牌提供涵盖运营、渠道、营销、履约交付等在内的 ⼀ 站式跨境电商解决方案 。此外还有物流履约、软件与数据 营销等。核心就是帮品牌运营线上渠道并转化为销量。 根据招股书， Pattern 的收入来源多元，包括经销差价、服务佣金、 SaaS 订阅费以及定制化咨询服务等，业务覆盖全球 60 多个主流电商平台，包括亚 马逊、沃尔玛、 Target 、天猫、京东、抖音 /Ti ...

Group 1 - BMW is set to launch the new generation of its largest SUV, the X7, with the code G67, which will include a fully electric version called iX7, expected to have a maximum output of 800 horsepower [2] - The design of the new X7 will incorporate BMW's Neue Klasse philosophy, featuring a split headlight design with daytime running lights positioned along the edge of the hood [2] Group 2 - Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province, announced the suspension of its automobile replacement subsidy policy effective from October 10, 2025, as part of the implementation of national and provincial policies regarding consumer goods replacement [2] - Consumers in Wenzhou will need to register their newly purchased vehicles in the city to qualify for the scrapping and replacement subsidy starting from the same date [2] Group 3 - Mercedes-Benz unveiled a unique CLA concept car in collaboration with Hot Wheels, with only one unit produced globally, showcased at the "Hot Wheels Legends Tour" event [2] - The CLA concept features striking design elements such as pink glass, exaggerated wide-body kits, and asymmetrical wheel designs [2]

Core Viewpoint - EA is undergoing a significant privatization deal valued at approximately $55 billion, marking the largest all-cash privatization investment in history, aimed at accelerating innovation and growth in the entertainment industry [5][6][8]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition involves a consortium of well-known investment firms, including Silver Lake, the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF), and Affinity Partners, with PIF retaining a 9.9% stake post-acquisition [5][6]. - EA shareholders will receive $210 per share, representing a 25% premium over the unaffected stock price of $168.32 [6]. - The deal has been approved by EA's board and is expected to close in the first quarter of the 2027 fiscal year, leading to EA's delisting from public markets [6][10]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Reaction - Following the announcement, EA's stock surged nearly 15%, closing at $193.35, with its market capitalization rising from approximately $43 billion to about $48 billion [6][10]. - EA's financials show a stable gross margin of 79.14%, but recent quarterly revenue has declined by 3%, indicating challenges in core product growth [9][13]. Group 3: Strategic Intent and Market Trends - The consortium's interest reflects a strategic recognition of EA's unique value in the gaming industry, particularly its extensive user base and popular IPs like "The Sims" and "Madden NFL" [8][9]. - The gaming industry is shifting from traditional sales models to real-time service models, with EA achieving nearly 75% of its net revenue from this segment [10][12]. - The privatization is seen as a way for EA to escape the pressures of quarterly earnings scrutiny, allowing for more strategic flexibility in its transformation efforts [10][17]. Group 4: Challenges and Internal Adjustments - EA faces significant challenges, including a decline in key product performance and a need for internal restructuring, leading to layoffs of 300 to 400 employees [13][15]. - The company is focusing resources on fewer core IPs, particularly the upcoming "Battlefield" title, to avoid past failures [15][16]. Group 5: Broader Industry Context - The acquisition of EA signals a trend towards consolidation in the gaming industry, with increasing competition and a shift in valuation metrics towards cash flow predictability and capital management [11][18]. - In contrast, the Chinese gaming market is experiencing growth driven by policy support and technological innovation, with a significant increase in overseas sales and a focus on high-quality growth [18][20].

Group 1 - Boeing plans to increase the production of the 737 Max to 42 units per month as early as October, with potential further increases to approximately 53 units by the end of next year [2] - OpenAI is facing technical challenges in developing a new AI device in collaboration with former Apple chief designer Jony Ive, particularly regarding insufficient computing power and the naturalness of user interactions [3] - Shenzhen has seen a significant increase in drone cargo flights, with nearly 548,000 flights recorded in the first eight months of the year, marking a 57% year-on-year growth [3]

以下文章来源于AI故事计划 ，作者赵芮 AI故事计划 . 人在AI时代的命运。这个编辑部致力于记录AI时代的真实故事。 大厂够不上 中厂养不起 邮件开头"很遗憾"三个字映入眼帘，王浩然意识到自己只是招聘方的一个"备胎"。他没有继续往下读，直接删除了这封来自心仪公司的邮件。 王浩然是上海某985院校大模型算法专业的博士研究生，这一专业方向正值AI赛道的风口。不过，由于就读的学校不算顶尖，且论文成果仅达到毕业基本要 求（两篇顶会论文），去年参加秋招时，王浩然接连遭到多家公司拒绝。 公司拒绝的方式，被他戏称为"泡池子"。 从初面到终面，走完一套面试流程通常需要一周左右。终面结束后，王浩然总会陷入漫长的等待，十天半个月的沉默期已是常态。 最终等到"很遗憾"这句回复，意味着公司在候选人比中"钓到了更大的鱼"，而他则被留在了人才鱼塘里，没被对方捞起。 经历四五次这样的期待落空后，王浩然已逐渐习惯。但这一次被拒，还是出乎了他的意料。 这个岗位来自国内一家头部互联网大厂。由于研究方向与岗位需求高度契合，王浩然顺利进入了终面。 来源｜AI故事计划 作者｜赵芮 编辑 ｜张霞 AI博士，远没有外界想象中风光。 毕业即享百万年薪的传 ...

2.【脑机接口公司Neuralink首次提交包含人体数据的论文】据报道，马斯克旗下的脑机接口公司 Neuralink已向一家学术期刊提交了一篇科学论文，介绍部分患者的试验结果。这将是该公司首次发 表含有人体数据的同行评审论文。（新浪科技） 3.【 OpenAI调整版权策略，Sora将允许正版动画角色客串出镜 】10月6日消息，随着OpenAI Sora 的爆火，版权问题也受到越来越多的关注。例如，有用户制作了海绵宝宝版《绝命毒师》恶搞视频， 其中不但人物形象十分还原，且配音也与原版基本一致。Sora团队负责人Bill Peebles表示，虚拟角 色在视频中的客串亮相"已列入开发路线图"，Sora将在未来引入正版的虚拟角色合作功能。OpenAI 首席执行官Sam Altman此前宣布将对公司"默认退出"（opt-out）版权政策进行调整。Altman表 示，版权方对此类"互动粉丝创作"表现出"极大兴趣"，OpenAI将提供"更精细的控制方式"，类似于 使用个人肖像的选择性授权（opt-in）机制，但增加了额外控制功能。（IT之家） 1.【OpenAI与AMD宣布百亿美元芯片大单：前者入股后者至多10%】 Ope ...