Macro Perspective - The macro perspective indicates a bullish outlook on equity assets, a bearish outlook on bond assets, a neutral stance on gold assets, and a bullish outlook on industrial products [23][25]. - The latest scores for major asset classes are: Equity (2), Bonds (-3), Gold (0), and Industrial Products (4) [2]. Technical Perspective - The technical perspective shows a neutral view on equity assets, a bullish outlook on bond assets, a bullish outlook on gold assets, and a bullish outlook on industrial products [25]. - The technical scores for major asset classes are: Equity (0), Bonds (1), Gold (1), and Industrial Products (1) [2]. Equity Style Analysis - The macro perspective favors small-cap stocks over large-cap stocks, while both perspectives support a balanced allocation between growth and value styles [36][40]. - The latest scores for equity styles are: Large-Cap/Small-Cap (-1), Growth/Value (0) [40]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The asset allocation strategy includes a fixed weight for equities (20%), bonds (60%), commodities (10%), and cash (5%), with adjustments based on macro and technical indicators [29]. - Historical performance shows that the combination of fixed proportions with macro and technical indicators yielded an annualized return of 10.20% since 2007 [31]. Performance Metrics - The performance metrics for the asset allocation strategies indicate that controlling annualized volatility at 6% yielded a return of 10.46%, while the risk parity strategy yielded 8.29% [33]. - The historical performance of the small-cap rotation strategy shows an excess return of 2.54% since 2013 [43].

Core Viewpoint - The quantitative convertible bond portfolio has performed well in January, generating a return of 33.49% since 2025, with an excess return of 7.92% compared to the China Securities Convertible Bond Index [1] Group 1: Portfolio and Performance - The quantitative convertible bond portfolio is generated based on three factor systems: fundamental factors, low-frequency price-volume factors, and high-frequency price-volume factors, with monthly rebalancing [5] - In January 2026, the portfolio achieved a return of 6.26%, with an excess return of 0.43% [1] Group 2: Convertible Bond Factors - A total of 32 fundamental factors, 80 low-frequency price-volume factors, and 32 high-frequency price-volume factors for convertible bonds are being tracked [2] - The report illustrates the latest data using the pricing deviation factor as an example [2] Group 3: Convertible Bond Risk Warnings - The report provides risk warnings for convertible bonds based on forced delisting and risk warning rules from exchanges, as well as results from event-based and credit scoring methods [3][15] - Specific convertible bonds are highlighted for various risks, including trading-related forced delisting and financial-related forced delisting [16] Group 4: Timing of Convertible Bond Index - The report employs price-volume models, pricing deviations, and convertible bond elasticity for timing and position management of the China Securities Convertible Bond Index [4] - As of the end of January, both the price-volume model and pricing model indicated bullish signals, with a recommended position of 2/3 [4][17]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The article provides an overview of the dividend progress of various stock indices and their components, highlighting the current status of dividend proposals, approvals, and implementations across different sectors. Group 1: Broad Index Dividend Progress - In the CSI 300 index, one company has passed the board proposal stage for dividends [1] - In the SSE 50 index, one company has also passed the board proposal stage for dividends [1] - In the CSI 500 index, one company has implemented dividends, totaling 1.30 billion [4] - In the CSI 1000 index, one company is at the shareholder proposal stage for dividends [1] Group 2: Industry Index Dividend Progress - In the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, one company has implemented dividends totaling 0.66 billion, and another has passed the shareholder meeting approval stage [2][6] - In the public utilities sector, one company has passed the shareholder meeting approval stage for dividends [2][6] - In the machinery and equipment sector, one company is at the shareholder proposal stage, and another is at the board proposal stage [2][6] - In the coal sector, one company has implemented dividends totaling 1.30 billion [2][6] - In the oil and petrochemical sector, one company has implemented dividends totaling 0.14 billion [2][6] Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis - The annualized basis rates for the CSI 300 near-month, far-month, near-quarter, and far-quarter contracts are -0.25%, 0.04%, 0.44%, and 0.55% respectively [3] - The annualized basis rates for the SSE 50 near-month, far-month, near-quarter, and far-quarter contracts are -0.89%, -1.30%, -1.67%, and -1.57% respectively [3] - The annualized basis rates for the CSI 500 near-month, far-month, near-quarter, and far-quarter contracts are -4.14%, -2.29%, -0.53%, and 1.11% respectively [3] - The annualized basis rates for the CSI 1000 near-month, far-month, near-quarter, and far-quarter contracts are -1.56%, 1.25%, 4.20%, and 5.11% respectively [3]

Market Performance - The Sci-Tech 50 Index decreased by 2.85% over the last five trading days, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.09%. In contrast, the large-cap value index rose by 1.87%, and the large-cap growth index increased by 0.68%. The Shanghai 50 Index gained 1.13%, whereas the small-cap index represented by the CSI 2000 dropped by 2.76%. The telecommunications and oil & petrochemical sectors performed well, while the defense, military, and power equipment sectors lagged behind [1]. Valuation Levels - As of January 30, 2026, the static PE of the CSI All Share Index is at 2.49%, with a two-standard deviation boundary of 4.67%. The valuation levels indicate that the CSI All Share Index's TTM PE is at the 84th percentile, while the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 are at 74% and 75%, respectively. The ChiNext Index is close to 62%, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are at 69% and 67%, respectively, suggesting that the ChiNext Index's valuation is relatively at the historical median level [2]. Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last five trading days, ETF funds experienced an outflow of 316.7 billion yuan, while the margin trading balance increased by approximately 14.7 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume across the two markets was 30.348 billion yuan [2]. Thematic Investment Insights - The latest thematic investment focus includes sectors such as petrochemicals, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals. Specific indices highlighted are the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, CSI Oil and Gas Index, and CSI Non-Ferrous Index [2][3]. AI and Machine Learning Applications - The report discusses the application of convolutional neural networks (CNN) to model price and volume data, aiming to identify future price movements and map learned features to industry themes. This approach is based on research reports related to AI recognition and classification of stock price trends [2][11].

Market Performance - The Sci-Tech 50 Index increased by 2.62% over the last five trading days, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.34%. The large-cap value index fell by 1.64%, and the large-cap growth index dropped by 1.34%. The Shanghai 50 Index declined by 1.54%, whereas the small-cap index represented by the CSI 2000 rose by 3.33%. The building materials and oil & petrochemical sectors performed well, while banks and telecommunications lagged behind [1]. Risk Premium and Valuation Levels - As of January 23, 2026, the static PE of the CSI All Share Index minus the yield of 10-year government bonds indicates a risk premium of 2.46%, with a two-standard deviation boundary at 4.68%. The valuation levels show that the CSI All Share Index's PETTM is at the 84th percentile, with the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 at 72% and 73%, respectively. The ChiNext Index is close to 63%, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are at 70% and 68%, respectively. The ChiNext Index's valuation is relatively at the historical median level [1]. ETF Fund Flow - In the last five trading days, ETF funds experienced an outflow of 326.5 billion yuan, while the financing balance increased by approximately 6.5 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume across the two markets was 27.727 billion yuan [2]. Industry Themes and Indices - The latest thematic allocation includes sectors such as petrochemicals, chemicals, machine tools, semiconductors, and non-ferrous metals. Specific indices mentioned are the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, CSI Sub-segment Chemical Industry Theme Index, CSI Machine Tool Index, CSI Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme Index, and the National Non-ferrous Metals Index [2][3]. Long-term Market Sentiment - The report includes observations on the proportion of stocks above the 200-day long-term moving average, indicating market sentiment trends [13]. Financing Balance - The report tracks the financing balance, which is a critical indicator of market liquidity and investor sentiment [16]. Individual Stock Performance - A statistical distribution of individual stocks based on their return ranges since the beginning of the year is provided, highlighting performance variations across different stocks [18]. Oversold Indices - The report notes instances of indices being oversold, which may present potential buying opportunities [20].

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance forecast for 2025 shows a cumulative disclosure rate of approximately 13.1% and a cumulative positive performance rate of about 40.3% among the disclosed companies [15]. Performance Forecast Summary - Among the 717 companies that disclosed performance forecasts, 180 companies (25.1%) expect an increase in performance, 45 companies (6.3%) expect a slight increase, 58 companies (8.1%) expect to turn losses into profits, and 6 companies (0.8%) expect to maintain profits. Conversely, 428 companies (59.7%) anticipate a decrease in performance, losses, or have uncertain forecasts [15][22]. - The disclosure rates for different boards are as follows: Shenzhen Main Board (10.34%), ChiNext (9.91%), Shanghai Main Board (19.25%), Sci-Tech Innovation Board (15.17%), and Beijing Stock Exchange (2.43%) [15]. Industry Performance Analysis Advanced Manufacturing - The mechanical equipment industry shows a remarkable net profit growth rate of 890.28%, with an index increase of 10.16%. The defense and military industry has a profit growth rate of 112.69%, aligning with the index increase of 12.76%. The power equipment industry maintains stable performance with a net profit growth of 12.79% and an index increase of 9.64% [27]. Pharmaceutical and Medical - The pharmaceutical and biological industry reports a net profit growth of 10.35%, with an index increase of 6.66%, indicating a moderate match between performance and market performance [3]. Cyclical Industries - The basic chemical and non-ferrous metal industries exhibit strong performance with profit growth rates of 135.50% and 57.02%, respectively, while the construction materials industry shows a profit growth of 58.19% [3]. - In contrast, the oil and petrochemical industry experiences a drastic decline in net profit by 692.13%, yet the index still rises by 7.74% [3]. Consumer Sector - The social services and automotive industries report extraordinary net profit growth rates of 1900.3% and 587.7%, respectively, with index increases of 9.71% and 5.63%. However, the light manufacturing and beauty care industries face significant profit declines of 65.43% and 59.09%, respectively, while their indices increase [3]. Technology (TMT) - The media industry shows a significant divergence with a net profit decline of 65.62%, despite an index increase of 17.69%. In contrast, the computer and electronics industries demonstrate a positive correlation between profit growth rates of 121.78% and 88.48% and index increases of 12.30% and 13.36% [4]. Financial and Real Estate - The real estate industry reports a staggering net profit decline of 100.5%, while the index increases by 6.66%. The banking and non-banking financial sectors show profit growth rates of 4.58% and 41.16%, respectively, with corresponding index declines [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the analysis of long-term heavy holdings by funds, identifying key stocks that are consistently held over multiple reporting periods, such as Ningde Times, Tencent Holdings, Zijin Mining, Kweichow Moutai, and Midea Group [4][5] Group 2 - In the long-term heavy holdings change, stocks like Xiaomi Group and Poly Developments have a high termination ratio in Q4 2025, while stocks like Baillie Tianheng and Zijin Mining have a low termination ratio [2][6] Group 3 - Industry-wise, the media, food and beverage, and electric equipment sectors show relatively low termination ratios for long-term holdings, indicating a positive outlook from fund managers for these sectors [3][9]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring trading heat in various concepts and sectors, especially during periods of high market sentiment, to help investors avoid market peaks [3]. Group 1: Trading Heat Monitoring Indicators - Common indicators for monitoring trading heat include valuation percentiles, turnover rates, and liquidity measures, which help assess the relative position of sectors or themes [4][31]. - The Amihud illiquidity ratio measures the price impact of trading volume, indicating liquidity levels; a higher value suggests lower liquidity [6][8]. - The Pastor-Stambaugh liquidity measure assesses the likelihood of return reversals based on liquidity, with a negative coefficient indicating poorer liquidity [9][10]. - Turnover rate reflects trading activity, with higher rates indicating better liquidity [11]. - The constituent stock dispersion index measures the trend consistency within an industry, with higher values indicating a crowded trading environment [12]. - The constituent stock pair correlation index evaluates the homogeneity of stock movements within an industry, with higher averages indicating increased market crowding [13]. - The constituent stock return kurtosis index captures extreme trading behaviors, with higher kurtosis suggesting heightened market emotions [14]. - The heat index, based on principal component analysis, measures an industry's contribution to systemic market risk, with higher values indicating concentrated trading [15][16]. - The herd behavior index captures the consistency of market participants' actions, with significant negative coefficients indicating extreme market sentiment [17][18]. - The closing price-volume correlation index analyzes the relationship between price and volume, with significant negative correlations signaling potential trend reversals [19]. - The turnover ratio indicates the concentration of trading within a sector, with higher ratios suggesting increased speculative activity [20]. Group 2: Alternative Dimensions for Monitoring - The article suggests using historical comparisons of similar concepts or themes to provide insights into future performance, particularly when current themes have experienced significant gains [31]. - An example provided is the Wind Satellite Index, which had a maximum increase of 55.70% over the past 20 trading days, with a market capitalization of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan and a trading volume accounting for 3.31% of the total market [32]. - Historical analysis of similar market segments indicates an average maximum increase of 12.79% over the following 60 trading days, with an average peak trading duration of 33 days and peak trading volume accounting for 4.48% of the total market [32][34].

Market Performance - The Sci-Tech 50 Index increased by 2.58% over the last five trading days, while the ChiNext Index rose by 1.00%. In contrast, the large-cap value index fell by 2.81%, and the large-cap growth index decreased by 0.03%. The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index dropped by 1.74%, whereas the small-cap index represented by the CSI 2000 gained 1.31%. The computer and electronics sectors performed well, while the defense, military, and real estate sectors lagged behind [1]. Risk Premium and Valuation Levels - As of January 16, 2026, the risk premium, measured as the inverse of the static PE of the CSI All Share Index minus the yield of ten-year government bonds, stands at 2.51%. The two standard deviation boundary is 4.68%. The valuation levels indicate that the CSI All Share Index's PETTM is at the 83rd percentile, with the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 at 74% and 75%, respectively. The ChiNext Index is close to 63%, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are at 69% and 67%, respectively. The ChiNext Index's valuation is relatively at the historical median level [1]. Fund Flow and Trading Volume - In the last five trading days, ETF funds experienced an outflow of 132.3 billion yuan, while the margin trading balance increased by approximately 97.3 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume across the two markets was 34.251 billion yuan [3]. Thematic Indexes - The latest thematic allocations include the Satellite Industry Index, Nonferrous Metals Index, Biotechnology Index, and Computer Index, among others. Specific indices mentioned are the CSI Satellite Industry Index, CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index, CSI Biotechnology Theme Index, CSI Big Data Industry Index, and CSI Computer Theme Index [2][4]. Market Sentiment and Risk Preference - The report includes observations on market sentiment based on the proportion of stocks above the 200-day moving average and tracks the risk preferences between equity and bond assets [13][14]. Financing Balance - The financing balance data is also included, indicating trends in margin trading activity [16]. Individual Stock Performance - Statistics on individual stock performance year-to-date based on return intervals are provided, highlighting the distribution of returns across different stocks [18]. Oversold Indices - The report notes instances of indices being oversold, which may indicate potential investment opportunities [20].

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance forecast for 2025 shows a cumulative disclosure rate of approximately 3.99% and a cumulative positive performance rate of about 40.83% among the disclosed companies [10][11]. Group 1: Overall Performance Forecast - Among the 218 companies that disclosed performance forecasts, 53 companies (24.31%) expect an increase in performance, 26 companies (11.93%) expect slight increases, 9 companies (4.13%) expect to turn losses into profits, and 1 company (0.46%) expects to maintain profitability [10]. - Conversely, 129 companies (59.17%) anticipate performance reductions, losses, or have uncertain forecasts [10]. Group 2: Performance by Sector - In the advanced manufacturing sector, the defense and military industry index has risen by 12.70%, correlating with a 26.50% growth in net profit attributable to the parent company [24]. - The machinery equipment sector shows a net profit growth of 39.63%, with an index increase of 6.06% [24]. - The pharmaceutical and medical sector has seen a significant decline, with net profit down by 36.59%, yet the index has increased by 9.85% [25]. - In the cyclical sector, upstream and midstream raw material industries have shown substantial improvement, with net profit growth exceeding 160% in construction materials, steel, and basic chemicals, although market reactions have been relatively stable [25]. - The consumer sector shows mixed results, with light industry manufacturing and agriculture experiencing net profit declines of -45.13% and -27.40%, respectively, while the automotive and home appliance sectors have seen net profit growth of 42.43% and 30.49% [25]. - The technology sector, particularly in media, has shown a significant divergence, with net profit down by 163.49% but an index increase of 24.65% [25]. - The real estate sector remains weak, with a net profit decline of 74.57%, while the banking sector has recorded a 5.98% profit growth but a 2.83% decline in the index [25]. Group 3: Performance Disclosure by Market Capitalization - The disclosure rate increases with market capitalization, with large-cap companies (over 100 billion) showing a disclosure rate of 7.95% and a positive performance rate of 64.29% [11][20]. - Mid-cap companies (500-1000 billion) have a disclosure rate of 8.70% and a positive performance rate of 56.25% [11][20]. - Small-cap companies (under 50 billion) have the lowest disclosure rate at 2.16% and a positive performance rate of 28.89% [11][20].