Core Viewpoint - The article presents a comprehensive analysis of major asset classes from both macroeconomic and technical perspectives, indicating a generally favorable outlook for equities, bonds, industrial products, and gold, while highlighting specific trends and valuation metrics for each asset class [1][3][19]. Macroeconomic Perspective - The macroeconomic indicators suggest a positive outlook for equities, bonds, industrial products, and gold, with specific indicators showing varying degrees of influence on asset performance [5][19]. - The analysis employs T-tests to assess the impact of macroeconomic trends on asset returns, indicating significant differences in average returns under different macro conditions [3][4]. Technical Perspective - The technical analysis indicates that as of May 31, 2025, bond and gold prices are trending upwards, while equity and industrial product prices are trending downwards [9][10]. - Different methods are used to calculate trend indicators for various asset classes, with historical performance data guiding the selection of the most effective methods [7]. Valuation Metrics - The current equity risk premium (ERP) is at 82.51%, indicating that equity valuations are relatively low compared to historical averages [12][13]. - The analysis of funding flow metrics shows that the equity market is experiencing a net outflow of 1.3 billion yuan, suggesting a cautious sentiment among investors [15][16]. Asset Allocation Performance Tracking - Historical performance data indicates that the fixed ratio combined with macro and technical indicators yielded a return of 0.09% in May 2025, with an annualized return of 11.82% since April 2006 [2][20]. - The performance of various asset allocation strategies is tracked, showing that combinations of macro and technical indicators can enhance returns while managing risk [24][25].

Market Performance - The recent five trading days saw the Sci-Tech 50 Index decline by 0.36%, the ChiNext Index by 1.40%, and the large-cap value index by 0.16%, while the large-cap growth index fell by 2.71%. The Shanghai 50 Index decreased by 1.22%, whereas the small-cap index represented by the CSI 2000 rose by 0.94%. Sectors such as environmental protection and biomedicine performed well, while automotive and electrical equipment lagged behind [1]. Risk Premium Analysis - The risk premium, defined as the inverse of the static PE of the CSI All Index (EP) minus the yield of ten-year government bonds, indicates that the implied returns of equity and bond assets are at historically significant levels. For instance, on April 26, 2022, the risk premium reached 4.17%, and on October 28, 2022, it was 4.08%. As of January 19, 2024, the indicator stood at 4.11%, marking the fifth occurrence since 2016 of exceeding 4%. As of May 30, 2025, the indicator was at 3.90%, with the two-standard deviation boundary set at 4.75% [1]. Valuation Levels - As of May 30, 2025, the CSI All Index's PETTM was at the 50th percentile, with the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 at 61% and 48%, respectively. The ChiNext Index was close to 11%, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 were at 30% and 32%. The ChiNext Index's valuation style is relatively low compared to historical averages [2]. Long-term Market Trends - The technical analysis of the Deep 100 Index indicates a cyclical pattern of bear markets every three years, followed by bull markets. Historical declines ranged from 40% to 45%, with the current adjustment starting in the first quarter of 2021 showing sufficient time and space for a potential upward cycle [2]. Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last five trading days, ETF inflows totaled 8.5 billion yuan, with margin trading increasing by approximately 720 million yuan. The average daily trading volume across both markets was 10.687 billion yuan [4]. AI and Machine Learning Applications - The use of convolutional neural networks (CNN) for modeling price and volume data has been explored, with features mapped to industry themes. The latest focus is on sectors such as banking [3][10].

Market Performance - The Sci-Tech 50 Index decreased by 1.47% over the last five trading days, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.88%. In contrast, the large-cap value stocks rose by 0.48%, and the large-cap growth stocks declined by 0.40% [1] - The medical and biological sectors performed well, while the computer and machinery equipment sectors lagged behind [1] Risk Premium Analysis - The static PE of the CSI All Share Index minus the yield of 10-year government bonds indicates a risk premium. Historical extreme bottoms have shown this data to be at two standard deviations above the mean, with recent peaks at 4.17% on April 26, 2022, and 4.11% on January 19, 2024. As of May 23, 2025, the indicator stands at 3.84%, with the two standard deviation boundary at 4.76% [1] Valuation Levels - As of May 23, 2025, the CSI All Share Index's TTM PE is at the 51st percentile, with the SSE 50 and CSI 300 at 62% and 49%, respectively. The ChiNext Index is close to 11%, indicating a relatively low valuation level compared to historical averages [2] Long-term Market Trends - The Shenzhen 100 Index has experienced bear markets approximately every three years, followed by bull markets. The current adjustment, which began in Q1 2021, has shown sufficient time and space for a potential upward cycle [2] Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last five trading days, ETF funds saw an outflow of 24 billion yuan, while margin financing decreased by approximately 20 million yuan. The average daily trading volume across both markets was 1.1376 trillion yuan [3] AI and Machine Learning Applications - A convolutional neural network (CNN) has been utilized to model price and volume data, mapping learned features to industry themes. The latest focus is on sectors such as banking and dividends [2][10]

Market Performance - The Sci-Tech 50 Index decreased by 1.10% over the last five trading days, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.38%. The large-cap value and growth indices rose by 1.45% and 1.60%, respectively. The Shanghai 50 Index rose by 1.22%, and the small-cap index represented by the CSI 2000 increased by 0.16%. The beauty and personal care sector, along with non-bank financials, performed well, while the computer and defense industries lagged behind [1]. Risk Premium Analysis - The static PE of the CSI All Index minus the yield of 10-year government bonds indicates a risk premium. Historical extreme bottoms have shown this data at two standard deviations above the mean, with notable instances in 2012, 2018, and 2020. As of April 26, 2022, the risk premium reached 4.17%, and on October 28, 2022, it was 4.08%. The latest reading on January 19, 2024, was 4.11%, marking the fifth instance since 2016 exceeding 4%. As of May 16, 2025, the indicator was at 3.86%, with the two standard deviation boundary at 4.76% [1]. Valuation Levels - As of May 16, 2025, the CSI All Index's PETTM percentile is at 52%. The Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indices are at 62% and 50%, respectively, while the ChiNext Index is close to 11%. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are at 31% and 33%, indicating that the ChiNext Index's valuation is relatively low compared to historical levels [2]. Long-term Market Trends - The technical analysis of the Deep 100 Index shows a pattern of bear markets occurring every three years, followed by bull markets. The last bear market began in Q1 2021, with previous declines ranging from 40% to 45%. The current adjustment appears to have sufficient time and space, suggesting a potential upward cycle from the bottom [2]. Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last five trading days, ETF funds experienced an outflow of 34.1 billion yuan, while margin financing decreased by approximately 600 million yuan. The average daily trading volume across the two markets was 1.2317 trillion yuan [3]. AI and Machine Learning Applications - The report discusses the use of convolutional neural networks (CNN) to model price and volume data, aiming to predict future prices. The learned features are mapped to industry themes, with a current focus on banking [6].

Domestic Convertible Bond ETF Development Status - Two convertible bond ETFs have been issued in China: Bosera CSI Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond ETF (as of Q1 2025, size 37.66 billion RMB) and Haifutong SSE Investment Grade Convertible Bond ETF (as of Q1 2025, size 5.78 billion RMB), together accounting for 6.1% of the total market size of convertible bonds [1][6][12] - The management fee rates for these ETFs are lower than those of actively managed convertible bond funds (0.15% and 0.25% respectively) [1][12] - Since 2024, institutional investors have accounted for over 97% of the holdings, indicating a strong demand for ETF allocation to diversify non-systematic risks [1][12] - Performance-wise, the returns for 2024 are 5.87% for Bosera and 8.32% for Haifutong, outperforming the average of actively managed convertible bond funds [1][12][22] U.S. Convertible Bond Market - The U.S. convertible bond market is the largest and most mature globally, with a total outstanding size of 254 billion USD by the end of 2024, covering a wide range of issuers from small to large companies, primarily in TMT, consumer, and healthcare sectors [2][42] - The terms of U.S. convertible bonds are designed to be flexible, with a stable default rate compared to the Chinese market [2][66] U.S. Convertible Bond Index and Index Funds - The U.S. has a well-established convertible bond index system, with various indices compiled by Bloomberg, ICE BofA, and iBoxx, dating back to 1988 [3][70] - The first U.S. convertible bond ETF, SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities ETF (CWB), was launched in 2009, with current sizes of 4 billion USD for CWB and 2.6 billion USD for iShares' ICVT [3][77] - Over the past five years, the annualized returns for passive ETFs (10%-11%) have significantly outperformed the average of actively managed funds (7.3%) [3][88] Insights and Recommendations - Suggestions for the development of China's convertible bond market include improving the index system and developing segmented strategy indices [4][89] - Emphasizing low fees as a core competitive advantage for passive products [4][89] - Enhancing liquidity of ETFs and underlying assets to increase trading activity [4][90] - Innovating bond terms to introduce more flexible mechanisms while protecting investors [4][90]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and characteristics of the ChiNext New Energy Index, highlighting its focus on companies involved in the new energy and new energy vehicle sectors, and its historical outperformance compared to similar indices [1][4][27]. Group 1: Index Characteristics - The ChiNext New Energy Index includes 50 companies listed on the ChiNext board, focusing on the new energy and new energy vehicle industries, reflecting the overall performance of the new energy sector [1][4]. - As of May 9, 2025, the index's top five industries, including battery, photovoltaic equipment, automation equipment, wind power equipment, and metal new materials, account for 92% of the index's weight [12][21]. - The index has achieved an annualized return of 11.78% since its inception, outperforming other new energy indices [27][31]. Group 2: Valuation and Performance - The index has a high margin of safety in valuation, with a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 24.45 and a price-to-book ratio of 3.31 as of May 9, 2025, indicating it is at the 44.7% and 34.9% historical percentiles, respectively [24]. - The index's historical performance shows a higher Sharpe ratio compared to other new energy indices, indicating better risk-adjusted returns [27][31]. Group 3: Lithium Battery Sector Insights - Leading companies in the lithium battery sector demonstrate stable profitability, with the battery segment accounting for 78.30% of the industry's profit in Q1 2023, and expected to rise to 90.10% in Q1 2024 [37]. - The financial indicators used to assess the industry cycle include weighted return on equity (ROE), quick ratio, and fixed asset turnover, suggesting that the battery sector may soon see a profitability turning point [38][39]. Group 4: Power Equipment Demand - The power equipment sector is experiencing high demand, with most companies reporting revenue growth and a robust order backlog, particularly in overseas markets [41][43]. - The industry is expected to benefit from ongoing investments in grid expansion and equipment upgrades, with significant growth in contract liabilities indicating a positive outlook for future revenue [44]. Group 5: Fund Product Overview - The Guotai ChiNext New Energy ETF closely tracks the ChiNext New Energy Index and employs a full replication strategy to minimize tracking error, with subscriptions opening on May 12 [47].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and characteristics of the ChiNext New Energy Index, highlighting its focus on companies involved in the new energy and new energy vehicle sectors, and its historical outperformance compared to similar indices [1][4][27]. Group 1: Index Characteristics - The ChiNext New Energy Index selects 50 companies listed on the ChiNext board that are involved in the new energy or new energy vehicle industries, reflecting the overall performance of the new energy theme [1][4]. - As of May 9, 2025, the index's top five industries, including battery, photovoltaic equipment, automation equipment, wind power equipment, and metal new materials, account for 92% of the index's weight [12][21]. - The index has achieved an annualized return of 11.78% since its inception, outperforming other new energy indices [27][31]. Group 2: Valuation and Performance - The index has a high margin of safety in valuation, with a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 24.45 and a price-to-book ratio of 3.31 as of May 9, 2025, indicating it is at the 44.7% and 34.9% historical percentiles, respectively [24]. - The index's historical performance shows a higher Sharpe ratio compared to other new energy indices, indicating better risk-adjusted returns [27][31]. Group 3: Lithium Battery Sector Insights - Leading companies in the lithium battery sector demonstrate stable profitability, with the battery segment accounting for 78.30% of the industry's profit in Q1 2023, and expected to rise to 90.10% in Q1 2024 [37]. - The financial indicators used to assess the industry cycle include weighted return on equity (ROE), quick ratio, and fixed asset turnover, suggesting that the battery sector may soon see a profitability turning point [38][39]. Group 4: Power Equipment Demand - The power equipment sector is experiencing high demand, with most companies reporting revenue growth and a robust order backlog, particularly in overseas markets [41][43]. - The industry is expected to benefit from ongoing investments in grid expansion and equipment upgrades, with significant growth in contract liabilities indicating a positive outlook for future revenue [44]. Group 5: Fund Product Overview - The Guotai ChiNext New Energy ETF closely tracks the ChiNext New Energy Index and employs a full replication strategy to minimize tracking error, with subscriptions opening on May 12 [47].

广发证券联席 首席金工分析师 陈原文 SAC: S0260517080003 chenyuanwen@gf.com.cn 广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 SAC: S0260512020003 anningning@gf.com.cn 广发证券资深金工分析师 张钰东 SAC: S0260522070006 zhangyudong@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 研究背景： 近年来，指数化投资理念愈发受到投资者认可。根据指数编制规则，上证50、沪深300和中证500等宽基指数于每年的6月和12月定期调仓，成 分股名单会部分调入调出。跟踪相应指数的指数型基金，同样会参照指数编制规则，被动调整持仓成分股。当前的被动型基金规模屡创新高，若指数成分 股存在较大变动，则可能带来潜在的投资机会。 指数类产品规模统计： 规模继续增长。根据Wind，截至4月30日，1969只被动指数型基金（ETF和场外被动指数型基金）规模合计3.4万亿元，346只增强 指数型基金规模合计2211亿元，合计规模高于偏股混合型基金（2.07万亿元）。根据跟踪指数的不同，统计各类指数的产品跟踪情况，跟踪指数产品规模 靠前的指数分 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article provides predictions for the periodic adjustments of major broad-based core indices in China, including the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, CSI 1000 Index, ChiNext Index, Shenzhen 100 Index, Sci-Tech 50 Index, and Sci-Tech 100 Index, scheduled for June 2025. These adjustments may create event-driven trading opportunities for investors [1][4][5]. Group 1: Shanghai 50 Index Adjustment Predictions - According to the adjustment rules, five stocks including China National Offshore Oil Corporation and SAIC Motor Corporation will be added to the Shanghai 50 Index, while five stocks such as Haitian Flavoring and Food will be removed in June 2025 [1][6]. Group 2: CSI 300 Index Adjustment Predictions - Six stocks including China National Aviation Holdings and Shanghai Electric will be added to the CSI 300 Index, while six stocks such as 37 Interactive Entertainment and Hualan Biological Engineering will be removed in June 2025 [1][7]. Group 3: CSI 500 Index Adjustment Predictions - Fifty stocks including Tianshan Shares and Shenhuo Co. will be added to the CSI 500 Index, while fifty stocks such as Jianghuai Automobile and China Power Investment will be removed in June 2025 [2][9]. Group 4: CSI 1000 Index Adjustment Predictions - One hundred stocks including Kema Technology and Wireless Media will be added to the CSI 1000 Index, while one hundred stocks such as Jinbo Shares and Plai Ke will be removed in June 2025 [2][13]. Group 5: ChiNext Index Adjustment Predictions - Ten stocks including Ruijie Networks and Guibao Pet will be added to the ChiNext Index, while ten stocks such as Kaili Medical and Anke Bio will be removed in June 2025 [2][18]. Group 6: Shenzhen 100 Index Adjustment Predictions - Four stocks including AVIC Chengfei and Guangqi Technology will be added to the Shenzhen 100 Index, while four stocks such as TCL Zhonghuan and Kanglong Chemical will be removed in June 2025 [2][19]. Group 7: Sci-Tech 50 Index Adjustment Predictions - Four stocks including BeiGene and Huahong Semiconductor will be added to the Sci-Tech 50 Index, while four stocks such as BGI Genomics and Tianyue Advanced will be removed in June 2025 [2][21]. Group 8: Sci-Tech 100 Index Adjustment Predictions - Ten stocks including Qihoo 360 will be added to the Sci-Tech 100 Index, while ten stocks such as Airo Energy and YN Technology will be removed in June 2025 [3][23].

广发证券联席 首席金工分析师 陈原文 SAC: S0260517080003 chenyuanwen@gf.com.cn 广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 SAC: S0260512020003 anningning@gf.com.cn 广发证券资深金工分析师 张钰东 SAC: S0260522070006 zhangyudong@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 指数定期调整预测。 中证指数有限公司及深圳证券信息有限公司在每年的6月及12月会根据指数编制方案对主要的宽 基核心指数成分股进行定期的调整。 上证50指数调整预测。 根据上证50指数编制规则，2025年6月将会有中国海油、上汽集团等5只个股被调入上证50指 数，而海天味业等5只个股被调出上证50指数。 深证100指数调整预测。 根据深证100指数编制规则，2025年6月将会有中航成飞、光启技术等4只个股被调入深证100 指数，而TCL中环、康龙化成等4只个股被调出深证100指数。 科创50指数调整预测。 根据科创50指数编制规则，2025年6月将会有百济神州、华虹公司等4只个股被调入科创50指 数，而华大智造、天岳先进等4只个股被调 ...