" 新浪财经 2025 年会暨第 18 届金麒麟论坛"于2026年1月15日在北京举办，本次会议的 主题是"十五五开局，经济新启航——重塑增长范式，共创未来繁荣"。 中国人民大学原副 校长、国家金融研究院院长、国家一级教授吴晓求出席并演讲。 以下为演讲实录： 我讲讲资本市场。关于经济、医疗、财政等等，前面几位专家都讲得非常清楚、非常好。 资本市场在2026年向好的趋势应该不会有变化。虽然昨天中午三个交易所的融资杠杆从80%提 到100%，给市场一个信号：我们得悠着点，慢慢来，中国市场成长时间还长，不能着急。这里 需要理解，为什么从2024年9月24号以来中国资本市场有很好发展，有几个原因： 我们在这样条件下，要转变观念，看到市场成长前景。实际上市场不仅仅是国民经济晴雨表， 更重要还是经济和产业转型的重要推动者，要看到它有双重作用。传统晴雨表只是一个反映， 实际上资本市场发展可以推动中国经济结构转型和产业升级迭代，要看到后面作用，不要简单 步入泡沫论阶段。中国资本市场成长有它成长逻辑，既有改革逻辑，也有产业结构转型逻辑。 所以，在这种条件下，它未来成长可期。中间当然有波动，市场都在波动中前行，难以想象市 场有一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the concept of "common prosperity" as a new development paradigm for China, highlighting the need for a shift from material wealth distribution to human development and capability enhancement [3][4][6]. Group 1: Common Prosperity as a New Paradigm - Common prosperity is framed as a theoretical challenge that requires a transformation in development paradigms, focusing on human capabilities rather than just material wealth [3][6]. - The article argues that reducing income disparity is essential for expanding domestic demand, linking it to the enhancement of individual capabilities and opportunities [3][4]. Group 2: Human-Centric Development - The central government has shifted its focus towards investing in people alongside material investments, reflecting a deeper understanding of development that prioritizes human needs [4][6]. - The article stresses that addressing disparities in knowledge, skills, and opportunities is crucial for achieving common prosperity, as these disparities are often systemic and not merely individual [3][6]. Group 3: Efficiency and Fairness - The relationship between efficiency and fairness is re-evaluated, proposing a "fusion theory" that suggests enhancing human capabilities can simultaneously improve efficiency and promote fairness [7][8]. - The article highlights the importance of setting fair expectations for distribution, emphasizing that perceived opportunities for wealth distribution are as significant as actual outcomes [8][9]. Group 4: Ensuring Basic Fairness - To ensure basic fairness, the article identifies four essential areas: nutrition, education, health, and housing, which need to be addressed to prevent widening disparities [9][10]. - It argues that while acknowledging existing disparities, the focus should be on encouraging innovation and rewarding creative contributions rather than merely labor [9][10]. Group 5: Challenges in Achieving Common Prosperity - The article outlines three major challenges in addressing the farmer issue, which is pivotal for achieving common prosperity: the dual market economy, social identity barriers, and the dual ownership system [10][11]. - It emphasizes the need for a paradigm shift from wealth accumulation to knowledge accumulation, advocating for a combination of investments in both material and human capital [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The potential for China's economic growth remains significant, and there is a need for confidence in this outlook. The key to achieving this growth lies in upgrading the development paradigm from a development-oriented government to one that promotes comprehensive and high-quality economic development [4][7]. Group 1: Economic Growth Potential - Recent analysis indicates that the average forecast for China's GDP growth potential over the next five years (2026-2030) is 5.2%, reflecting optimism about future growth [8]. - The supply side of the economy has substantial potential, characterized by high savings, strong R&D capabilities, and a skilled workforce. Additionally, there are still 700 million people who have not fully transitioned to modern living standards, indicating significant demand-side potential [8][9]. Group 2: Development Paradigm Upgrade - The current economic growth rate has been declining, with nominal GDP growth recorded at 4.2% in Q1, 3.9% in Q2, and 3.7% in Q3 of the previous year, leading to an estimated annual growth of around 4.0% [8]. - The need for a paradigm shift in governance is emphasized, moving from a development-oriented government to a new model that focuses on human development and comprehensive economic growth [10][11]. Group 3: Recommendations for Economic Coordination - The establishment of four key committees is proposed to enhance coordination in various sectors: 1. A Human Resources Development Committee to address education, health, and social welfare [12]. 2. A Real Estate Development Committee to stabilize housing prices and support young buyers through interest subsidies [13]. 3. An International Trade Balance Development Committee to unify trade discussions [13]. 4. An Artificial Intelligence Development and Governance Committee to balance development with employment concerns [13]. Group 4: Short-term Economic Outlook - There are several positive expectations for the current year, including stabilization of housing prices in key regions, optimism in the stock market, and a potential recovery in nominal GDP growth due to the initiation of major projects and favorable policies [16].

中央财经大学金融学院教授、证券期货研究所名誉所长贺强在演讲中表示，"十五五"期间 资本市场如何才能长期地走好，首先必须要满足两个重要的条件，一是资金，具体讲就是入 市的资金。 贺强回顾称，2024年初A股跌破2600点时，市场低迷的主因是"股票大量扩容而资金未同 步扩容"，导致严重供大于求。此后，证监会积极吸引中长期资金入市，"证监会吸引中长 期资金入市的工作做得很好，新年放假期间还公布了政策。"尤其自2024年9月24日起，增 量资金持续涌入，推动市场走出强劲行情。近期日成交额甚至逼近4万亿元历史天量，股指 快速冲高。 但他也表示，"现在资金是太着急了，冲得太猛了。这种走法，股市很难保证长期走好。" 以下为演讲实录摘编： 各位来宾上午好，我讲的话题是在"十五五"期间我们的资本市场如何才能长期地走好，"十 五五"给大家带来很多希望，特别是在资本市场。刚才晓求教授讲到了"十五五"期间中国证 券化率应该达到百分之百。还有的专家说"十五五"期间中国股市要突破6124点这个历史最 高点，也有专家说"十五五"期间股市的市值从100万亿翻到200万亿。总之大家都寄予了良 好的希望。但是不讲牛熊，概括成一句话，要想实现这些 ...

但同时，也面临着巨大的挑战。她指出，这个挑战是人口老龄化。下一步，我国应尽可能预 防疾病，减少疾病，同时，不把衰老当成疾病在医院里治。 " 新浪财经 2025 年会暨第 18 届金麒麟论坛"于2026年1月15日在北京举办，本次会议的 主题是"十五五开局，经济新启航——重塑增长范式，共创未来繁荣"。第十三届全国政协 经济委员会副主任，北京大学国家发展研究院教授、北京大学健康发展研究中心主任李玲出 席并演讲。 李玲谈到，今天的中国是世界上最强大的工业化国家，近些年我国医疗体制改革还是有成效 的。根据国家卫健委发布的最新数据，2024年全国卫生总费用初步核算为90895.5亿元， 其中：政府卫生支出占24.9%，社会卫生支出占47.6%，个人卫生支出占27.5%；人均卫 生总费用6454.4元，卫生总费用占GDP的比例为6.7%，首次降到7%以下。 李玲强调，健康中国国家战略是优先发展战略，因为人民健康是社会主义现代化的重要标 志。整个范式的转变，从过去以治病为中心，现在转化为以健康为中心，让老百姓少得病， 更加健康，这要求各级政府、社会和个人都要贯彻预防为主的理念，真正地把健康优先发展 的战略作为经济社会发展的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investigation launched by the State Administration for Market Regulation against Ctrip Group for alleged monopolistic practices, highlighting the ongoing scrutiny of the company within the online travel market [2][6]. Group 1: Investigation and Regulatory Actions - The State Administration for Market Regulation has initiated an investigation into Ctrip Group for suspected abuse of market dominance, marking it as another major internet platform facing antitrust scrutiny [2][6]. - Ctrip has stated it will cooperate with the investigation and continue to provide quality services to users and partners, asserting that its business operations remain normal [2][6]. - The investigation stems from long-term monitoring of the online travel market, with complaints from small businesses and consumers regarding Ctrip's practices, including "forced choice," data manipulation, and exclusive partnerships [6][9]. Group 2: Industry Reactions and Complaints - The Yunnan Provincial Tourism Homestay Association has taken a stand against Ctrip, citing multiple complaints from its members about unfair practices, including "forced choice" clauses and arbitrary commission increases [8][9]. - The association plans to initiate collective legal actions against Ctrip and other online travel platforms for their alleged monopolistic behaviors [9]. - Industry representatives have criticized Ctrip for its high commission rates, which reportedly range from 30% to 40%, significantly impacting the profit margins of homestay operators [12]. Group 3: Previous Incidents and Complaints - Ctrip has faced previous scrutiny, including being named by CCTV for allegedly seizing hotel pricing authority and manipulating prices without merchant consent [14][16]. - Regulatory bodies in Guizhou and Zhengzhou have previously conducted talks with Ctrip regarding its pricing practices and compliance with relevant laws, emphasizing the need for fair competition [16]. - Users have reported significant price fluctuations on Ctrip's platform, raising concerns about the company's pricing strategies and transparency [14][16]. Group 4: Financial Performance - Despite the ongoing scrutiny, Ctrip reported record financial performance, with revenue reaching 47.01 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.93%, and a net profit of 29.01 billion yuan, up 94.59% [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The "死了么" App, which will be rebranded as Demumu, aims to expand its services globally while maintaining its focus on safety for solitary individuals [2]. Group 1: Company Development - The "死了么" App is developed by a post-95 entrepreneurial team and is currently in financing discussions, with plans to close this round of funding within the week [5]. - The app's founder, 小郭, stated that the app is currently valued at several million yuan and he plans to sell less than 10% of the shares, with the transaction size expected to be in the millions [6]. - As of January 10, the app reached the top of the Apple Store paid app rankings, attracting interest from over 60 investors within three days [6]. - The app's initial price was set at 1 yuan, which has since increased to 8 yuan, with expectations to rise to 14 or 15 yuan in the future [6]. Group 2: Market Position and Competition - The "死了么" App continues to hold the number one position in the Apple Store paid app rankings as of January 13 [6]. - A short video by influencer "摆货小天才" claimed that the app's concept and logo design closely resembled a video released by their team in October 2023, which was subsequently taken down [9]. - The app's founder, 吕先生, responded that the app's concept is derived from widespread community discussions and not from any single individual [10]. Group 3: Intellectual Property and Design - 吕先生 mentioned that multiple similar creative videos have been released in the past two to three years, indicating that the idea's ownership cannot be attributed to just one video [10]. - Regarding potential patent applications for the app's logo and design, 吕先生 stated that he could not disclose specific details but assured that necessary actions would be taken [10].

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the legality of a company's decision to terminate an employee for not sharing a product promotion on social media, which was deemed unlawful by the court [2][3] - The employee, referred to as Xiao Liu, was a business director at a sales company and was dismissed for not forwarding a company tweet by a specified deadline [2] - The court highlighted that the company failed to provide evidence of any wrongdoing by Xiao Liu, such as misappropriating company property, and thus ruled in favor of the employee [3] Group 2 - The court referenced the Supreme People's Court's interpretation regarding labor disputes, emphasizing that the employer bears the burden of proof in cases of termination [3] - The company's requirement for employees to share promotional content was communicated in a group chat, and the lack of formal written notice for termination was noted as a procedural failure [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the adjustment of the financing margin ratio by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, increasing the minimum margin requirement from 80% to 100% for new financing contracts, aimed at reducing leverage and protecting investors' rights [2] - In August 2023, the financing margin ratio was lowered from 100% to 80%, which led to a steady increase in financing scale and trading volume, indicating a more active financing market [2] - The recent increase in the financing margin ratio is part of a regulatory measure to ensure market stability and healthy long-term development, as market liquidity has been relatively abundant [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of user respect and privacy in the design of electronic invitation platforms, highlighting the negative implications of monetizing visitor tracking features [4][8]. Group 1: User Privacy Concerns - Several popular electronic invitation platforms, such as Wedding Chronicle and Wedding Shell, have made the ability to view complete visitor and forwarding records a paid membership feature, raising concerns among users [6]. - Users are often unaware that their browsing and forwarding activities can be tracked, leading to feelings of discomfort and social pressure when they realize their interactions are being monitored [6][7]. Group 2: Ethical Considerations in Business Practices - The platforms are criticized for obscuring the terms of their privacy policies, which allows them to exploit user data under the guise of consent, undermining the transparency and voluntary nature of user agreements [7]. - While platforms may seek to generate revenue through such features, the long-term impact on user trust could be detrimental, as prioritizing commercial interests over user rights is unsustainable in a privacy-conscious market [8]. Group 3: Balancing User Experience and Business Needs - The article suggests that platforms must carefully consider the implications of visitor tracking features, as the desire for user engagement must be balanced with respect for privacy and social etiquette [8]. - A successful product should meet various user needs while maintaining a fundamental respect for user privacy, which is crucial for long-term viability in the market [8].