作者 | 独行侠 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 今年 7月，是中国资本市场史诗级的一个月。尤其是大宗商品市场，极致的过山车行情，实属历 史罕见。 前 19个交易日，文华商品指数累计大涨7.2%。其中多晶硅大涨64%，焦煤大涨50%，玻璃大涨 34%。而后短短6个交易日，大盘回吐了一半涨幅，焦煤、玻璃又纷纷重挫20%左右。要知道， 商品往往有10倍或以上的杠杆，赚钱、亏钱都是成比例大幅扩大。 一念天堂，一念地狱。为什么商品市场会如此极端？商品对应的 A股周期股行情又会如何演绎？ 01 从 7月1日开始，不管是大宗商品市场，还是A股市场，均迎来了一波酣畅淋漓的大涨行情。 导火索无它，即 第六次中央财经委员会召开。它的前身是中央财经领导小组， 2018年3月改名 而来，职责是 针对经济领域的顶层设计、总体布局、统筹协调、整体推进、督促落实。 因此，资本市场对此次重磅会议给予了高度关注，并积极定价。尤其是会议中有一句重磅定调： 依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出。 彼时，市场更在意 "低价"、"落后产能""退出"等关键词，开始与2015年底启动的 ...

作者 | 科技那些事儿 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 7 月 26 日， 2025 世界人工智能大会（ WAIC ）在上海拉开帷幕，资本市场也再度迎来了 AI+ 机器人概念的火热。 回望整个上半年，机器人概念行情火爆，特别是宇树科技的 H1 人形机器人亮相央视春晚，把"人形机器人"推至风口。而在经历 2 、 3 月份 的狂飙后，市场情绪逐步回归理性，而后续伴随特斯拉 Optimus 进度不及预期等消息扰动，板块迎来回调。 如今进入下半年 ， 板块情绪底的出现， "难有大的下跌基础"业已成为市场共识，风险偏好修复之下，叠加一系列商业化利好密集落地，有望 对板块后续表现形成强有力的催化。 如果将 2025 年的 AI 、器人赛道比作一场从"实验室"走向"生产线"的接力赛，显然一场从"讲故事"到"交作业"的硬核淘汰赛已经拉开。对投 资者而言，上半年是" Beta 行情"，买赛道即可，下半年则是" Alpha 厮杀"，只有能把概念兑现为真实现金流的公司才能享受到市场真金白 银的青睐，获得估值溢价的机会。 当故事讲到 " 兑现 " 这一集，镜头自然要聚焦到 行业中 能拿出合同、跑出产能 ...

ETF进化论 4万亿美金！这个赛道爆了 原创 阅读全文 ...

一、美股科技股年内最大 IPO 之一 ： Figma 在旧金山湾区的科技 战场上 ， Figma 正演绎着一场关于设计生产力的革命。这家成立于 2012 年的公司， 以 22 亿美元的前端设计软件市场为起点，如今已将目标锚定在 330 亿美元的全流程产品开发生态。其核心 产品 Figma 平台，凭借轻量化、社区繁殖和协同办公三大杀器，在全球设计工具市场中杀出血路。 二、全球 AI 应用发展的奇点将至 当 Figma 在设计领域 借助 AI 掀起革命时，全球 其他垂类 AI 应用也正在迎来他们的爆发点 。 主要判断依 据 ： 资料来源：华西证券 同时，在 AI 浪潮下， Figma 借助 AI 编程能力，无缝切入程序员协同平台办公中的代码开发场景，并且未 来公司有望向真正的" 无人开发 "进一步延拓。 1 、 多模态：大语言模型绕不开的进化节点 当大语言模型（ LLM ）凭借 Scaling Law 和强化学习在文本领域屡屡突破人类智能边界时，其"单模态枷 锁"已成为场景扩张的最大瓶颈。 LLM 能写代码、作报告，却读不懂一张设计图、辨不出一段视频的情绪 ——这种局限，倒逼出多模态大型语言模型（ MLLM ）的 ...

7月30日盘后，微软、Meta两大科技巨头财报引爆市场，股价盘后分别飙升约8.55%、 12.27%，带动美股科技板块热度再攀高峰。 而今天的国内市场也应声而动，美图公司一度暴涨 14%，快手、金山云、麦富时等AI板块标 的纷纷跟涨，整个AI赛道俨然成了资本追捧的" 香饽饽 "！ 在这里，必须恭喜长期跟随格隆汇研究院学习的朋友们，咱们又一次在 AI浪潮中精准踩对节 奏，共享这场产业革命的红利！ 看到这波轰轰烈烈的上涨，不少朋友肯定会好奇：这波 AI板块大爆发的背后，究竟是什么在推 动？股价涨得这么猛，后面还能继续吗？ 别急，且听我们慢慢道来： 这话有一定道理，但显然不够全面 ——要知道，微软和Meta的股价可不是" 昙花一现 "，而 是在业绩硬支撑下的强势爆发，更重要的是，这两份财报撕开了AI商业化的" 遮羞布 "，让市 场看到了实实在在的增长动能。 所以，情绪只是催化剂，真正的核心是基本面的跨越式突破。 那基本面的关键进展是什么呢？是 AI已经从" 实验室概念 "彻底走进" 商业落地 "，成为驱动 巨头收入和利润的核心引擎！ 微软的 Azure云服务增速39%，其中10个百分点由AI贡献；Office365 ...

大肉签首日暴涨92%！7月创新药新股被疯抢，港股IPO持续火爆 原创 阅读全文 格隆汇新股 ...

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively retreated, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.18% and the ChiNext Index down 1.66% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.936 trillion yuan, an increase from the previous day [1] AI Sector Performance - AI-related concepts showed strong performance in the morning, driven by impressive earnings reports from Meta and Microsoft, particularly in AI capital expenditures [1][9] - However, the market experienced a sudden drop in the afternoon, affecting overall indices [2] Sector Analysis - Most industry sectors experienced declines, with significant drops in energy metals, steel, coal, mining, photovoltaic equipment, real estate development, shipbuilding, precious metals, and chemical fiber industries [3] - The "anti-involution" concept, which includes several cyclical sectors, saw substantial profit-taking after recent gains, with many stocks in steel, non-ferrous metals, real estate, and coal dropping over 2% [5] Futures Market - Major futures contracts for glass,焦煤 (coking coal), and多晶硅 (polysilicon) approached limit-down levels, indicating a significant market correction [6] - The prices of glass and soda ash futures have nearly returned to pre-surge levels [25] Capital Expenditure Insights - Meta's Q2 revenue was $47.516 billion, a 22% year-over-year increase, and net profit rose 36% to $18.337 billion [10] - Microsoft reported Q2 revenue of $76.4 billion, an 18% increase, with net profit up 24% to $27.2 billion, driven by strong demand for cloud and AI products [11] Investment Sentiment - The market sentiment has weakened compared to the previous week, with nearly 4,300 stocks declining and only 50 stocks hitting the daily limit-up [18] - The recent market rally was fueled by positive expectations from U.S.-China trade negotiations, but the lack of substantial outcomes in the latest round has led to a shift in sentiment [21][23] Future Outlook - The market is currently in a correction phase due to unmet expectations and the weakening of trade negotiation prospects, with potential for continued volatility in August [31] - Defensive strategies may become a priority for investors, with high-dividend sectors like banking and insurance showing resilience amid broader market declines [33]

ETF进化论 连涨3年！这只特色ETF凭什么？ 原创 阅读全文 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for a "second wave" market opportunity in the context of the Yaxia Hydropower Project, which has a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, highlighting its significance in the current market environment [1][2]. Group 1: Project Fundamentals - The Yaxia Hydropower Project is characterized by its massive scale, with a planned total installed capacity of 60 million kilowatts, which is equivalent to 2.6 times the Three Gorges Project, and an expected annual power generation of over 300 billion kilowatt-hours [2]. - The project has a clear funding certainty with an investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, indicating a consistent annual investment of at least 100 billion yuan over the next decade, which provides a long-term incentive for market speculation [2]. - The timing of the project is crucial as the A-share market is currently experiencing a period of uncertainty, making the Yaxia Hydropower Project an attractive new focus for investors [2]. Group 2: Market Signals - The Yaxia Hydropower sector has seen a significant influx of capital, with a four-day consecutive increase in trading volume, indicating new funds entering the market, which is typically a sign of institutional or speculative interest [3]. - On July 29, the sector exhibited a "deep V" pattern, where the market initially dropped but then rebounded sharply, suggesting that major players are actively managing their positions [3]. - There is a noticeable divergence in stock performance, with smaller stocks like Xizang Tianlu and Xining Special Steel leading gains, while larger stocks like China Energy Engineering and China Power Construction lagged, indicating a tactical preference for smaller-cap stocks by speculative investors [4]. Group 3: Future Opportunities - The article suggests that if the second wave of the market materializes, two types of stocks should be closely monitored: those directly benefiting from the project, such as construction companies and equipment manufacturers, and regional stocks that may gain from local supply advantages [7]. - The potential for a second wave is contingent on maintaining support levels around 1260 points and ensuring trading volumes remain above 50 billion yuan, which would indicate ongoing investor interest [6].

Core Viewpoint - A 46-year-old PhD is starting a semiconductor company in Longgang, Shenzhen, aiming to supply products to Alibaba and Kuaishou, with plans to pursue an IPO in the future [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company is focused on semiconductor production, targeting major clients like Alibaba and Kuaishou, indicating a strong market position and potential for growth [1] - The founder's background as a PhD suggests a high level of expertise and innovation within the company, which could enhance its competitive edge in the semiconductor industry [1] Group 2: Market Potential - The semiconductor industry is experiencing significant demand, driven by the growth of technology companies such as Alibaba and Kuaishou, which rely heavily on advanced semiconductor solutions [1] - The company's strategic location in Shenzhen, a tech hub, positions it favorably to leverage local resources and talent, further enhancing its growth prospects [1] Group 3: IPO Aspirations - The company is planning to pursue an IPO, which indicates confidence in its business model and growth trajectory, potentially attracting more investment and increasing its market visibility [1] - The pursuit of an IPO reflects the company's ambition to scale operations and expand its market reach, aligning with broader trends in the semiconductor sector [1]