M 丙午呈祥， 骐骥锦春， 淡水泉投资祝您春节快乐！ ...

提醒广大投资者保护合法权益，维护公司声誉，淡水泉投资郑重声明及提示如下： 一、淡水泉投资全称为"淡水泉（北京）投资管理有限公司"，为中国证券投资基金业协会备案的私募证券投资基金管理人（登记编码：P1000294）。 二、根据法律法规，淡水泉所有产品及服务仅面向合格投资者。淡水泉从未面向公众开展证券投资、咨询、培训等活动，也从未授权任何第三方以淡水泉 名义开展前述活动。请广大投资者遇到不规范证券活动时注意甄别。 三、淡水泉投资唯一官方网站为：https://www.springs-capital.com/ 官方微信公众号为：淡水泉投资，此外在新浪微博、雪球、东方财富网、知乎等网站平 台上开设的官方账号请以平台加V认证为准。淡水泉投资未广泛在其他互联网平台上设立官方账号，请广大投资者注意甄别。 以下为官方网站及微信公众号二维码： 淡水泉（北京）投资管理有限公司（下称"淡水泉投资"）关注到有不法分子冒用淡水泉投资、淡水泉投资员工的名义，在互联网平台或线下开展非法荐 股、非法集资、项目投资等违法证券活动，涉嫌骗取投资者钱财，甚至有不法分子冒充监管部门，谎称"受金融监督管理部门委托，开展兑换减损处置工 作"，虚构所谓的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant trends in the commodity market, highlighting the rise of resource nationalism and the investment opportunities in the mining supply chain as a response to the evolving market dynamics and increasing competition among nations for resource control [1][4]. Group 1: Resource Nationalism and Industry Expansion - Resource nationalism is on the rise, leading to increased production incentives as countries prioritize control over their resources. Resource-exporting nations are moving away from previous models of "heavy export, light control" to policies that enhance resource sovereignty and local benefits [5][6]. - Major consuming countries, particularly manufacturing giants like the US and China, are accelerating their global resource strategies to ensure supply chain security and strategic competition, which intensifies the competition in the resource sector [6]. Group 2: Investment Cycles and Demand Dynamics - Following the Fed's interest rate cuts in 2020, the mining sector experienced a significant investment expansion, with global mining capital expenditure increasing by 50% from 2020 to 2023. However, growth slowed from 2023 to 2025, maintaining a modest single-digit increase or remaining flat [10]. - As the global resource market enters a bull phase and a new round of interest rate cuts begins, mining capital expenditure is expected to restart its upward cycle, with Caterpillar predicting a further 50% increase in mining capital expenditure by 2030 [12]. Group 3: Focus on Post-Cycle Investments - Different stages of mining development correspond to various cycle attributes and investment logic. Exploration and mining infrastructure are considered pre-cycle, while extraction, transportation, screening, and refining are post-cycle. The current trend shows a decline in new mine developments while capital expenditure on existing mines is increasing, indicating a focus on post-cycle investments [14][18]. - The post-cycle segments of mining, which are often associated with large-scale production and high technical barriers, present significant growth opportunities for companies. For instance, the demand for large-capacity mining trucks is high, but Chinese brands have historically struggled to penetrate the international market due to technological and ecological barriers [20]. Group 4: Opportunities for Chinese Enterprises - The changing global mining landscape offers new opportunities for Chinese companies, particularly in the post-cycle segments. Chinese mining companies' global expansion provides a chance for domestic mining truck manufacturers to collaborate and enter international markets, leveraging cost advantages and efficient service support [22]. - The push for green transformation in mining, driven by global carbon neutrality goals, is leading to the adoption of electric and autonomous mining trucks. Chinese companies are capitalizing on this trend by integrating electric technology into mining operations, enhancing competitiveness and operational efficiency [22][23].

提醒广大投资者保护合法权益，维护公司声誉，淡水泉投资郑重声明及提示如下： 淡水泉（北京）投资管理有限公司（下称"淡水泉投资"）关注到有不法分子冒用淡水泉投资、淡水泉投资员工的名义，在互联网平台或线下开展非法荐 股、非法集资、项目投资等违法证券活动，涉嫌骗取投资者钱财，甚至有不法分子冒充监管部门，谎称"受金融监督管理部门委托，开展兑换减损处置工 作"，虚构所谓的"非法集资减损平台"，持续行骗。 四、我们强烈谴责该等不法分子冒用淡水泉名义从事非法活动的行为，并保留追究其法律责任的权利。 一、淡水泉投资全称为"淡水泉（北京）投资管理有限公司"，为中国证券投资基金业协会备案的私募证券投资基金管理人（登记编码：P1000294）。 二、根据法律法规，淡水泉所有产品及服务仅面向合格投资者。淡水泉从未面向公众开展证券投资、咨询、培训等活动，也从未授权任何第三方以淡水泉 名义开展前述活动。请广大投资者遇到不规范证券活动时注意甄别。 三、淡水泉投资唯一官方网站为：https://www.springs-capital.com/ 官方微信公众号为：淡水泉投资，此外在新浪微博、雪球、东方财富网、知乎等网站平 台上开设的官方账号请以 ...

淡水泉（北京）投资管理有限公司（下称"淡水泉投资"）关注到有不法分子冒用淡水泉投资、淡水泉投 资员工的名义，在互联网平台或线下开展非法荐股、非法集资、项目投资等违法证券活动，涉嫌骗取投 资者钱财。 为提醒广大投资者保护合法权益，维护公司声誉，淡水泉投资郑重声明及提示如下： 一、淡水泉投资全称为"淡水泉（北京）投资管理有限公司"，为中国证券投资基金业协会备案的私募证 券投资基金管理人（登记编码：P1000294）。请合格投资者在接受服务时注意甄别行为主体。 二、根据法律法规，淡水泉所有产品及服务仅面向合格投资者。淡水泉从未面向公众开展证券投资、咨 询、培训等活动，也从未授权任何第三方以淡水泉名义开展前述活动。请广大投资者遇到不规范证券活 动时注意甄别。 三、淡水泉投资唯一官方网站为：www.springs-capital.com，官方微信公众号为：淡水泉投资，此外在 新浪微博、雪球、东方财富网、知乎等网站平台上开设的官方账号请以平台加V认证为准。淡水泉投资 未广泛在其他互联网平台上设立官方账号，请广大投资者注意甄别。 以下为官方网站及微信公众号二维码： 四、我们强烈谴责该等不法分子冒用淡水泉名义从事非法活动的行 ...

获取详细内容 重要提示：本材料不构成淡水泉任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩不预示未来表现。投资须谨慎。 2026年1月 淡水泉 月度观点，投资人和合作伙伴请点击左下角"阅读原文"了解详细内容。 ...

淡水泉（北京）投资管理有限公司（下称"淡水泉投资"）关注到有不法分子冒用淡水泉投资、淡水泉投 资员工的名义，在互联网平台或线下开展非法荐股、非法集资、项目投资等违法证券活动，涉嫌骗取投 资者钱财。 为提醒广大投资者保护合法权益，维护公司声誉，淡水泉投资郑重声明及提示如下： 一、淡水泉投资全称为"淡水泉（北京）投资管理有限公司"，为中国证券投资基金业协会备案的私募证 券投资基金管理人（登记编码：P1000294）。请合格投资者在接受服务时注意甄别行为主体。 二、根据法律法规，淡水泉所有产品及服务仅面向合格投资者。淡水泉从未面向公众开展证券投资、咨 询、培训等活动，也从未授权任何第三方以淡水泉名义开展前述活动。请广大投资者遇到不规范证券活 动时注意甄别。 三、淡水泉投资唯一官方网站为：www.springs-capital.com，官方微信公众号为：淡水泉投资，此外在 新浪微博、雪球、东方财富网、知乎等网站平台上开设的官方账号请以平台加V认证为准。淡水泉投资 未广泛在其他互联网平台上设立官方账号，请广大投资者注意甄别。 以下为官方网站及微信公众号二维码： 四、我们强烈谴责该等不法分子冒用淡水泉名义从事非法活动的行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that artificial intelligence (AI) has become a central investment theme in global capital markets, significantly impacting stock performance across major indices since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022 and DeepSeek in early 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Different Paths of AI Development in China and the U.S. - The U.S. focuses on exploring capability boundaries with strong foundational computing power, leading to significant capital expenditures by leading firms in a closed-source model arms race [5][6]. - China, constrained by geopolitical factors and relative chip capabilities, adopts an open-source strategy aimed at optimizing under resource constraints, promoting inclusivity in AI development [6][7]. Group 2: Technical Approaches - The U.S. primarily employs a closed-source strategy, emphasizing performance breakthroughs through increased parameter scales and resource investment, driving commercial returns [7][8]. - China embraces an open-source ecosystem, with models like DeepSeek and Qianwen focusing on creating efficient, low-cost technology systems that adapt to domestic computing power [8][10]. Group 3: Business Models - The U.S. market has a mature paid software ecosystem, with strong enterprise willingness to invest strategically in AI applications, driven by tech giants and unicorns [14]. - In contrast, China's model leans towards monetizing traffic, integrating AI with existing internet platforms, and relying on indirect consumer payments through transactions and advertising [14]. Group 4: Structural Opportunities in the Global AI Industry - The global AI industry is undergoing structural changes driven by technological breakthroughs and application deepening, creating investment opportunities due to dynamic supply-demand relationships [15][16]. - The demand for AI applications is leading to shortages in specific products, such as storage, and creating a new cycle of growth in the semiconductor industry [16][19]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities in China - Domestic AI investment is expected to accelerate as local computing power improves, with advancements in products like domestic GPUs enhancing stability and performance for large model inference [19]. - Innovations in edge AI hardware and applications are anticipated, with potential breakthroughs in consumer products like AI smartphones and smart glasses [19]. - The C-end AI application market is projected to see significant growth, with a focus on platforms that possess comprehensive advantages in models, ecosystems, and scenarios [19].

Group 1 - The capital market has started 2026 with a strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking last year's high and daily trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan, driven by liquidity and low interest rates [1] - Insurance funds have increased their allocation to stocks and funds, with the proportion rising from 12% in 2022 to approximately 15% by the end of Q3 2025, indicating a significant upward trend [3] - It is estimated that insurance funds will inject between 300 billion to 700 billion yuan into A-shares throughout 2026 [3] Group 2 - The amount of maturing three-year fixed deposits is expected to reach nearly 28 trillion yuan in 2026, a year-on-year increase of about 5 trillion yuan, with over half maturing in the first quarter [6][7] - The continuous decline in deposit rates, from 2.6% to 1.25%, is likely to drive funds from low-yield deposits into higher-yield "fixed income+" products, indirectly injecting liquidity into A-shares [7] Group 3 - In 2025, the median annual return for actively managed equity funds and stock ETFs exceeded 25%, indicating a significant recovery in the equity market's profitability [9][11] - The positive return environment has increased investors' willingness to allocate to stocks, funds, and trusts, as reflected in a multi-quarter rise in investment sentiment among urban savers [11] Group 4 - The scale of private securities investment funds grew from 5.21 trillion yuan to 7.04 trillion yuan in 2025, marking a growth rate of over 35%, driven by high-net-worth individuals' demand for equity market exposure [17] - The sentiment indicator for active private funds showed a recovery entering 2026, suggesting renewed capital inflow into the stock market [19] Group 5 - The current financing balance has reached 2.71 trillion yuan, a historical high, but the growth of leveraged funds is providing liquidity support rather than amplifying market volatility [22][23] - The proportion of foreign investors expressing concerns about structural valuation risks in the Chinese stock market has dropped to a new low of 38%, indicating a potential for increased foreign capital allocation [26][29]

重要提示：本材料不构成淡水泉任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩 不预示未来表现。投资须谨慎。 尊敬的投资人及合作伙伴： 您好！ 本次年度展望中，我们邀请了淡水泉创始人、首席投资官赵军先生，与淡水泉（香港）总裁、知名经济 学家陶冬博士展开对话，聚焦 2026 年市场关心的投资议题，分享我们的思考。 您可通过扫描下方二维码进行观看。如通过代销机构持有淡水泉产品，请咨询您的理财经理获取观看密 码。 2025年的资本市场既是波动的一年，又是收获的一年。步入新的投资年度，市场将如何演绎，又有哪些 投资机会值得关注？ 诚邀您参与！感谢您一直以来的信任与支持！ 特别提示：本次交流仅面向淡水泉产品的持有人、合作机构及合格投资者。市场有风险，投资须谨慎。 版权声明：本次交流的全部权利归淡水泉所有，未经淡水泉事先书面许可，任何人不得以翻录、截屏、 录屏或其他方式将本次交流活动的全部或任一部分提供给第三方，亦不得擅自摘编、引用、改写、转 载、转发淡水泉在本次交流活动中的任何观点、信息、材料。 ...