重要提示：本材料不构成淡水泉任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩 不预示未来表现。投资须谨慎。 从DeepSeek R1的出圈带动全球资本重估中国科技资产，再到以Mauns为代表的各式各样的"AI助手"层 出不穷在，AI正在更广泛的融入人们的生产生活方式。区别于上一轮互联网浪潮，AI应用有其自身的 发展特点。在互联网和移动互联网时代，场景和平台的核心价值在于通过提升匹配效率、降低交易成本 以加速信息传播，信息的病毒式传播本质是生产关系（如分配方式）的变革，因此互联网应用的发展节 奏偏快。而 AI 应用作为价值创造的工具，主要通过提升生产力，优化操作流程，实现效率提升等方 式，潜移默化地改变用户的使用习惯，核心是基于大模型能力的产品化过程，发展节奏呈现出缓慢渗透 的特点。 当前AI应用尚处于早期发展阶段，从技术角度可以分为两类。 另一类是原生AI应用，AI 能力是其最核心的产品要素，开发过程中通常需要充分利用 AI 功能来构 建全新的应用场景和用户体验，如豆包、Kimi 等大模型厂家衍生出来的聊天工具平台，以及目前品 类开发还不全面，但对模型能力要求较高的漫画、 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the temporary normalization of US-China relations following significant economic agreements reached in Geneva, indicating a willingness from both sides to negotiate and resolve certain issues while postponing others for future discussions [4][5] - The failure of the "hard decoupling" experiment suggests that the interdependence between the US and China will persist, providing China with new opportunities for reform and opening up, particularly in trade with developed countries and regional organizations [5][6] - The recent trade negotiations have led to a rebound in the Asia-Pacific stock markets, with expectations of a peak in tariffs, as companies begin to feel pressure from tariffs but overall exports remain stable due to growth in third-party markets [8][9] Group 2 - The technology and new economy sectors are emerging as key players in the stock market, with significant investment opportunities identified in areas such as AI and electric vehicles, supported by China's engineering talent and favorable policies [11] - A recent investment summit highlighted a strong interest from global institutional investors in increasing their allocations to Chinese stocks, driven by a low current allocation and a shift in sentiment following trade negotiations [9][11] - The article emphasizes that structural growth opportunities in the technology sector are more resilient to external challenges, making them attractive for investors looking for long-term growth [11]

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes that the fundamental principles of value investing, rational investing, and efforts to return to investors will remain relevant even after Warren Buffett's retirement [2][3] - The market is expected to witness the emergence of new great investors and investment institutions, with a belief that there will be a number of century-old firms and excellent investment teams in the market [2][3] Group 2 - There are three main forms of illegal activities conducted by fraudsters impersonating industry institutions: 1) publishing fake customer service hotlines of fund companies to extract personal information; 2) creating fake fund company websites or apps to lure residents into high-return investment schemes; 3) impersonating well-known fund managers on social media to induce residents into illegal investment groups [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's economic development through the lens of economic complexity, illustrating how the country has evolved from low-end manufacturing to high-end manufacturing, achieving a significant increase in its global manufacturing value added [1][3]. Summary by Sections 01 "Accumulation of Basic Letters" Stage (1978-2000) - In the early reform period, China's manufacturing capabilities were limited, primarily relying on labor resources and a basic industrial system, with policy reforms being crucial [5]. - By 2000, China's manufacturing value added accounted for 6% of the global total, ranking fourth, up from 2.7% in 1990 [5]. 02 "Expansion of the Letter Library" Stage (2001-2016) - Following China's accession to the WTO in 2001, the manufacturing sector engaged more deeply in the global economy, gaining access to advanced technologies and capital [7]. - The industry transitioned from simple processing to OEM, ODM, and OBM models, with companies like Huawei emerging as global leaders [7][8]. - Economic zones such as Shenzhen attracted foreign investment, enhancing local business environments and fostering successful manufacturing enterprises [7]. - The "Made in China 2025" initiative launched in 2015 aimed to elevate the country from a manufacturing giant to a manufacturing powerhouse, focusing on ten key sectors including new generation information technology and advanced rail transportation [10]. 03 "Formation of High Complexity Words" Stage (2016-Present) - Since 2016, geopolitical tensions and rising labor costs have prompted a shift towards self-reliance and innovation in China's manufacturing sector [12]. - The emergence of industrial clusters in regions like the Yangtze River Delta has enhanced manufacturing capabilities through collaborative synergies [13]. - Significant technological breakthroughs have occurred in fields such as high-speed rail and renewable energy, supported by increased R&D investment, which rose from 0.56% of GDP in the 1990s to 2.64% in 2023 [14]. - China has become a competitive player in cutting-edge technology sectors, including AI and semiconductor manufacturing [14][15]. - By early 2025, China is expected to have 79 out of 189 global "lighthouse factories," leading in digital manufacturing and industrial applications of robotics [15]. - The manufacturing sector is transitioning from low-end to mid-high end, with challenges remaining in core technologies like high-end chips [17]. - The past four decades of China's manufacturing rise represent a continuous upgrade process, transitioning from simple to complex production capabilities and from following to leading in innovation [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding market trends and potential investment opportunities in the current economic landscape [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - The article discusses the anticipated economic recovery in 2025, highlighting key sectors that are expected to benefit from this trend [1]. - It notes that consumer spending is projected to increase, which could positively impact retail and service industries [1]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The article identifies technology and renewable energy sectors as prime areas for investment, given their growth potential and alignment with global sustainability goals [1]. - It mentions specific companies within these sectors that are well-positioned to capitalize on emerging market demands [1].

重要提示：本材料不构成任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩不预示 未来表现。投资须谨慎。 随着4月底临近，上市公司正迎来一季报的密集披露期。通常来讲，一季报作为上市公司每年首份公开 披露的业绩报告，对全年经营具有较强的前瞻性指引作用，因其不仅能够有效反映当下行业和公司的经 营状况，而且也能体现对未来经营的预期。我们以A股和港股总市值超过200亿元的所有上市企业，以 及其它具有行业代表性的公司为样本，梳理卖方分析师的盈利预测后，发现以下三个领域当前展现出了 明显的景气改善迹象： 1 AI产业链代表的科技行业 AI产业链代表的科技行业 数据来源：万得、淡水泉投资，选用数据区间为2024年1月1日至2025年4月18日。 超越经济周期、具有独立成长逻辑的优质公司 在宏观经济仍面临不确定性的大环境下，各行各业开始涌现出越来越多超越经济周期、具备独立成长逻 辑的优质公司。以储能产业链为例，虽然行业仍存在供给过剩的情况，但是部分龙头公司凭借全球化产 能布局在一定程度上规避关税影响，同时依靠先进技术带来的成本优势，海外产能充分受益于海外需求 增长带动的储能订单释放，形成量利 ...

重要提示：本材料不构成任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩不预示 未来表现。投资须谨慎。 聚焦美国关税政策 过去一周，特朗普总统在几天之内对中国进口产品的关税调高到125%，连带之前与芬太尼相关的20% 关税，美国对中国进口产品的划一关税已升至145%。除此之外，中国的钢铝产品、汽车产品也在其他 关税的覆盖范围之内。中国则将所有原产地于美国的商品的关税同比例调高至125%，同时以美国产品 已经失去了市场接受的可能性为由，宣布不再理会美国进一步调升的关税税率，但会反击任何新的实质 性伤害。 的确，"对等关税"对于中美贸易已经产生影响。货运数据公司Vizion数据显示，中国赴美集装箱的订舱 数量上周急降到148000TEU（Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit，是国际上用于描述集装箱船及码头容量的标 准度量单位），对比此前一周为516000TEU。 考虑到中美两国各自的政策目标，在中美双方出牌博 弈之后，未来也不排除重回到谈判桌前的可能。 以美国对中国产品以及含有中国产品的第三国产品 的依赖程度，如此高的关税势必带来本国物价的上涨。 鉴于美国零售 ...

重要提示：本材料不构成任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩不预示 未来表现。投资须谨慎。 关税是近期市场普遍关心的话题，我们整理了一些外资投行的观察视角，以供参考。 截至本文发布，美国总统特朗普表示，他正考虑对进口汽车和零部件关税实施临时豁免的可能性， 以便让汽车企业有更多时间在美国建立生产设施。 在此之前，特朗普称豁免电子产品关税只是一项 临时措施，这些产品将被即将实施的行业关税所覆盖。 局势正在以分钟级速度演变。 关税政策能重振美国的就业吗？ 有外资报告援引学术研究结果显示，特朗普关税政策或对美国就业存在负面影响。关税税率每提高10个 百分点，受保护行业的就业岗位将增加0.2-0.4%；而关税驱动成本每上升1个百分点，就业岗位会减少 0.3-0.6%。考虑美国的经济体量，意味着关税保护对制造业就业的提振作用不足10万个岗位，而由此带 来的成本压力对下游就业的拖累效应则高达约50万个岗位。 企业应对关税风险的五种常见策略 外资投行基于观察企业应对上一轮关税争端的经验，总结出面对关税风险企业通常可以采取的五种应对 策略。在最新的关税政策下，部分策略是否还能继续 ...

重要提示：本材料不构成任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩不预示 未来表现。投资须谨慎。 特朗普政府于4月2日推出了新一轮关税措施，该政策方案的力度与覆盖范围显著超出了市场预期，进而 引发了全球金融市场的震荡。根据最新动态，美国对部分国家实行为期90天的"对等关税"缓冲期，并执 行10%的普遍性关税政策。尽管该措施的全面实施已被暂时推迟，但可以确定的是，此举将对国际贸易 格局与全球金融体系产生持久的影响。 失衡的贸易平衡目标与制造业回流的困境 新一轮关税政策的短期冲击已引发市场动荡，但更值得关注的是美国通过关税试图达成的政策目标。 根据美国政府官员近期的一些公开发言整理来看，此次关税行动可能主要有两个目的。 第一，以极端施压手段实现美国定义下的贸易平衡，缩减贸易逆差。 其施压手段不仅包括普遍的"对等关税 " ，还涉及诸多非关税壁垒、增加进口美国商品等内容。以越南 为例，其在美国宣布关税措施后以 " 零关税 " 条件积极回应，然而，美国仍要求越南承诺取消知识产 权窃取、出口补贴、倾销等非关税壁垒，但上述贸易壁垒并未在 " 对等关税 " 的税率确定中进行过调 查和 ...

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