Springs Capital 淡水泉投资 用热爱传遍美好 淡水泉投资祝您新年快乐！ ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of careful investment strategies and highlights the need for investors to stay informed about market trends and company performance [1]. Group 1 - The article mentions that the investment landscape is evolving, and investors should adapt their strategies accordingly [1]. - It discusses the significance of understanding financial reports and market indicators to identify potential investment opportunities [1]. - The article suggests that collaboration with experienced partners can enhance investment decision-making [1]. Group 2 - The content indicates that monitoring industry developments is crucial for making informed investment choices [1]. - It highlights the role of data analysis in evaluating company performance and market conditions [1]. - The article points out that staying updated with news and events can provide insights into future market movements [1].

重要提示：本材料不构成淡水泉任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩 不预示未来表现。投资须谨慎。 在全球新兴产业发展与能源转型浪潮下，电力，这一曾经容易被忽视的隐形基础设施，正日益成为影响 各国产业竞争力的显性变量。 从美国旧金山近期的大规模停电，到德国等传统工业国、越南等新兴经济体频发的缺电事件，全球范围 内的用电挑战已对工业生产构成冲击。 当世界多地频频为"电"所困时，中国却成功实现了"电力自由"，这将给中国企业带来怎样的竞争优势？ "电力自由"带来的成本红利 2019年以来， 全球平均电价持续上行且波动加剧，表明电力市场开始进入到不稳定的时代 。究其原 因，一方面在于电源侧投资不足，比如对天然气、石油等单一电源过度依赖，导致能源价格波动带动电 价上涨；另一方面也与电网设施长期老化、调节能力下降有关。 来源：万得、华泰研究、淡水泉投资，截至2025年6月。 从能源优势到产品走向世界的竞争力 在全球能源成本高企与供应稳定性不足的背景下， 稳定、低成本的电力供应已成为高耗能、重资产工 业品维持全球竞争优势的重要因素 。这类工业品多属于流程型工业，需 24 小时连 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "cross-year market trends" in the A-share market, highlighting the historical patterns and factors influencing these trends, particularly around the end of the year and the beginning of the new year [3][5]. Group 1: Historical Patterns of Cross-Year Trends - Cross-year trends typically occur from December to March or April, influenced by key events such as the Spring Festival and the Two Sessions [3]. - Statistical data from 2010 to 2025 shows an increasing probability of major indices rising from December to February, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 both showing a 47% rise in January [4]. Group 2: Factors Driving Cross-Year Trends - Three main factors contribute to the emergence of cross-year trends: 1. **Policy Expectations**: The Central Economic Work Conference in December sets the tone for economic policies, with further clarifications during the Two Sessions in March, prompting market positioning [6]. 2. **Liquidity Environment**: The beginning of the year often sees increased credit and seasonal recovery in monetary growth, providing a supportive environment for market activity [6]. 3. **Earnings Vacuum and Institutional Positioning**: The period before the release of annual and quarterly reports allows for speculative positioning, as institutions begin to seek new opportunities after year-end performance assessments [6]. Group 3: Current Market Insights - Recent fluctuations in the A-share market are influenced by external factors such as changing interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve and concerns over AI valuation bubbles impacting market sentiment [7]. - The potential for a cross-year trend depends on supportive factors, with current market conditions showing signs of recovery and active trading, particularly in quality growth assets [7][8]. - The macroeconomic environment remains supportive, with the Central Economic Work Conference maintaining a loose policy stance and emphasizing capital market reforms and domestic demand expansion [8]. Group 4: Structural Opportunities - Despite macro pressures, micro-level resilience is evident, with A-share revenue growth turning positive and stable ROE for non-financial companies [8]. - High-growth sectors such as technology and advanced manufacturing are showing strong performance, with the potential for broader industry improvements to create diverse structural opportunities in the market [8].

Springs Capital 淡水泉投资 用热爱传遍美好 弘扬宪法精神 筑牢法治根基 2025年宪法宣传周 ngs Capital 淡水泉投资 VA 重要声明：过往业绩不预示未来表现,投资须谨慎。本资料不是宣传推介材料,也 不构成关于任何证券、资管产品、投资服务或其他交易的要约、要约邀请或推荐， 亦非任何法律、财务、税务、投资等方面的专业建议。本资料的接收方不应仅基于 本资料作出任何判断,而应依赖其自身独立分析或征询第三方的专业意见。本资料 的版权归淡水泉所有。未经淡水泉事先书面许可，接收方不得披露、复制、摘编、 引用、改写本资料,亦不得以转载、转发等形式将本资料的全部或者部分提供给任 何未经淡水泉许可的第三方。 PERSONAL r range 111111 r 1 .. . . . . . . ....... T PERCE 11111 TITLE ...

Macro Environment - The macro policy for 2026 is expected to focus on "stabilizing growth" and structural "rebalancing," with an economic growth target around 5% to ensure a smooth start to the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][5] - Export resilience is anticipated to continue, while consumption and investment are expected to gradually stabilize with policy support, and the drag from real estate on the economy is likely to lessen [4] - Inflation indicators are crucial, with a consensus on nominal GDP improvement due to inflation recovery, but uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the GDP deflator turning positive, influenced by macro policy support and the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies [4][5] Stock Market Outlook - Foreign institutions generally hold a neutral to optimistic view on the Chinese stock market for 2026, based on four main factors: clear policy support, stabilization of geopolitical tensions, profitability upturn for leading and tech innovation companies, and ample market liquidity [8][10] - The market's core driver is expected to shift from price-to-earnings (PE) ratios to changes in corporate profitability, as returns driven by PE have largely been reflected in asset pricing [11] - Key variables affecting asset pricing include policy support, geopolitical stability, corporate profitability, and market liquidity [11] Structural Opportunities - "Anti-involution" policies are expected to improve industry supply-demand dynamics, enhance pricing, and boost corporate profitability, particularly in high-involution sectors benefiting from supply-side optimization [12] - The push for technological self-sufficiency and AI is likely to lead to increased competitiveness for Chinese manufacturers, with ongoing policy support expected to further enhance the value of tech-related assets [12] - Shareholder returns are being prioritized, with policies encouraging dividends and buybacks, supported by a high level of free cash flow relative to total payouts [12] - Companies are expected to accelerate globalization efforts, with overseas business margins typically higher than domestic ones, potentially enhancing overall profitability for related A-share companies [12]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of promoting constitutional spirit to strengthen the foundation of the rule of law [2][3] - It highlights the upcoming 2025 Constitution Publicity Week as a significant event for raising awareness about constitutional values [3] Group 2 - The content from Springs Capital focuses on the investment philosophy of spreading beauty through passion [5]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of careful investment strategies and the need for investors to stay informed about market trends and company performance [1] Group 1 - The article highlights the significance of understanding financial metrics and market conditions when making investment decisions [1] - It suggests that investors should analyze past performance to gauge future potential, although past results do not guarantee future outcomes [1] - The content encourages investors to seek detailed information and insights from reliable sources to enhance their investment strategies [1]

Core Insights - Kevin Kelly's new book "2049: The Possibilities of the Next 10,000 Days" presents a forward-looking vision of technology and society's deep integration over the next 25 years [3][17] - The concept of a "Mirror World" is introduced, which envisions a digital twin universe that corresponds entirely with the real world, allowing for immersive experiences and enhanced human interaction with technology [4][6] Mirror World: The Rise of the Next Generation Internet - The "Mirror World" will enable users to interact with a digital representation of reality, where smart glasses will replace most smartphones and serve as the primary interface [6] - This new internet will facilitate an explosion of user-generated content (UGC) and immersive experiences, transforming traditional activities like reading into interactive experiences [6] AI Era: Coexistence of Humans and Technology - The primary principle of interacting with AI is to not view it as human; the focus should be on developing specialized AI (ACI) rather than pursuing general AI (AGI) [9] - The collaboration between humans and machines will lead to a symbiotic relationship where machines enhance efficiency while humans drive innovation [9] AI Assistants: 24/7 Digital Companions - By 2049, everyone is expected to have a personal AI assistant that can manage various roles, from medical advisor to career consultant, enhancing daily life [10] - The concept of "Bot to Bot" (B2B) communication will allow AI assistants to interact directly, streamlining tasks and improving efficiency [10] Impact of AI on Future Society - AI will lead to flatter organizational structures in companies, with many managerial tasks being automated, resulting in a dual existence of large corporations and "one-person companies" [13] - The educational landscape will shift towards personalized learning experiences, emphasizing human traits like curiosity and creativity rather than merely training workers [13][14] Healthcare Transformation - The development of digital twins based on personal data will revolutionize personalized medicine, while AI will facilitate remote healthcare services [14] - The integration of AI in healthcare will reduce reliance on experienced surgeons and reshape service delivery models [14] Building an Optimistic Future - Kelly emphasizes that the future is not a passive fate but a construct of possibilities, advocating for a "protopia" where gradual progress is valued over perfection [17] - The unique human qualities of curiosity, creativity, empathy, and critical thinking will become essential competitive advantages in a world increasingly dominated by technology [17]

Core Viewpoint - The increasing demand for computing power in the U.S. is leading to a significant electricity shortage, creating both challenges and investment opportunities in energy infrastructure development [3][4]. Group 1: Electricity Supply and Demand Imbalance - The electricity crisis in the U.S. is a structural issue stemming from a long-term supply-demand imbalance, particularly highlighted by the mismatch between grid construction cycles and the rapid growth in computing power demand [4][5]. - The U.S. electricity reliability organization (NERC) predicts that data centers will add 65GW of load by 2030, but actual demand driven by computing power could reach 180GW in five years, nearly three times the official forecast [5]. - The aging power generation infrastructure is unable to quickly compensate for the electricity shortfall, with a mere 1.23% annual growth rate in operational generators over the past decade [9]. Group 2: Grid Infrastructure Challenges - The fragmented nature of the U.S. power grid, operated by thousands of entities, complicates cross-regional electricity distribution and upgrades, leading to increased risks of regional blackouts [11][12]. - The average age of grid equipment in the U.S. exceeds 30 years, limiting the ability to respond to surges in demand effectively [12]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Despite rising electricity costs, U.S. data centers maintain a strong commitment to power investments, presenting opportunities for Chinese companies to leverage their supply chain advantages in the global market [15]. - The global trend of upgrading electricity infrastructure is evident, with significant investment opportunities across generation, transmission, and distribution sectors, particularly for Chinese power equipment firms [15]. - The U.S. electricity crisis is expected to drive demand for gas turbines, energy storage solutions, and distributed microgrid construction, benefiting Chinese manufacturers with competitive advantages [16].